Doctor, Come In... There's a Pulse.

[MHSL82]

How hard is it to go through an entire season and lose to only "good teams"? If we use a winning percentage of .500 as the point of separation between "good teams" and "bad teams", it is interesting to note the following facts connected with the 14 NFL teams that could potentially play in the 2015 post-season:

NFC
Panthers (14-1): No losses to bad teams
Cardinals (13-2): Lost against the 7-8 Rams
Packers (10-5): Lost against the 6-9 Lions and the 6-9 Bears
Redskins (8-7): Lost against the 5-10 Dolphins, 6-9 Giants, and 4-11 Cowboys
Vikings (10-5): Lost against the 4-11 49ers
Seattle (9-6): Lost against the 7-8 Rams twice

AFC
Patriots (12-3): Lost against the 6-9 Eagles
Bengals (11-3): No losses to bad teams
Broncos (10-4): Lost against the 7-8 Colts and the 7-8 Raiders
Texans (8-7): Lost against the 7-8 Colts, 5-10 Dolphins, and 7-8 Bills
Chiefs (10-5): Lost against the 6-9 Bears
Jets (10-5): Lost against the 6-9 Eagles, 7-8 Raiders, and 7-8 Bills
Steelers (9-6): Lost against the Ravens twice
Colts (7-8): Lost against the 7-8 Bills, 6-9 Saints, and 5-10 Jaguars

Every team in the league has lost a game against a team eliminated from the post-season except for one: The Bengals. That will cease to be true if the Bengals don't win against the 5-10 Ravens in week 17, if the Jets win or if the Steelers lose next week (the Bengals lost to the Steelers).

There is such a thin margin for error in the NFL. It only takes a number of injuries or a freak play to completely change the outcome of a game, and teams that can manage winning streaks into the double-digits are doing something very rare, regardless of whether or not a number of the opponents would be considered "quality opponents". The Chiefs, hardly a perfect team, are a win away from establishing a new franchise record for consecutive wins in a single season. (There are thirteen other NFL franchises that don't have a single-season double-digit win streak since the AFL-NFL merger.) Interestingly, the last time they made it as far as nine consecutive wins, a bye week interrupted their momentum, and their streak came to an end a week later in Denver.

The Chiefs beat the Browns today, and they very well may come out of the week healthier than they went in, which would be another victory of sorts. Next week, the Chiefs could very well be playing for the division and a home game in the wild card playoff. The 7-8 Raiders would love to put an end to the Chiefs' win streak, to their ambitions for the AFC West, and to any other positive momentum that they have going forward. These games matter, and no matter how close the score is at the end of the game, or how close the opponent came to winning if only football games were 61 minutes long, if the Chiefs win, it is good enough. There are six other playoff teams that have been less reliable in winning games against "bad teams" than the Chiefs have been. If the Chiefs can be put into the same category as the Patriots, Cardinals, and Vikings when it comes to steadiness, that's hardly bad company.

So we have finished the season only losing to 1 team below 500, as a loss next week would make the Raiders 500.

 

[Gatorchip]

Was an unbelievable regular season. Whether or not the Chiefs beat the Raiders, how grand would it be to finally win a playoff game or two after that start?!

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Was an unbelievable regular season. Whether or not the Chiefs beat the Raiders, how grand would it be to finally win a playoff game or two after that start?!

Pretty awesome. Would be nice to get the irritating playoff monkey off this franchise's back. Seems like a rudderless ship as far as a deep run goes if Houston and Hali are both out- I hate to say it.

 

[Black Adam]

Pretty awesome. Would be nice to get the irritating playoff monkey off this franchise's back. Seems like a rudderless ship as far as a deep run goes if Houston and Hali are both out- I hate to say it.

which is why i'm HOPING we get 'em back healthy soon. we're definitely gonna need 'em...

 

[Black Adam]

not gonna get ahead of myself here, but i'm wondering what our best case scenario is for who we face in the wild card weekend. also it'd sure be nice to take the division and get a home game. I know, i'm probably wishing for too much...

 

[Fountain City Blues]

not gonna get ahead of myself here, but i'm wondering what our best case scenario is for who we face in the wild card weekend. also it'd sure be nice to take the division and get a home game. I know, i'm probably wishing for too much...

I'd love the idea of this aggressive defense/secondary vs Fitzpatrick whom's arm can produce some helium balls at times. I think that'd be an awful matchup for the Jets, personally. That's if we win the division. Denver would be a much closer shave than the Texans would be.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Well, the Bengals sure gave it a good try.

 

[MHSL82]

not gonna get ahead of myself here, but i'm wondering what our best case scenario is for who we face in the wild card weekend. also it'd sure be nice to take the division and get a home game. I know, i'm probably wishing for too much...

I'd love the idea of this aggressive defense/secondary vs Fitzpatrick whom's arm can produce some helium balls at times. I think that'd be an awful matchup for the Jets, personally. That's if we win the division. Denver would be a much closer shave than the Texans would be.

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios Spelled Out

 

[MHSL82]

Yes, Kansas City won 9 straight, but those close games make KC look like a pretender, right?

Nick Jacobs reported on Twitter

Since the game versus Pittsburgh on October 25, the Chiefs have tallied a point differential of +144 in their nine-game winning streak. This leads the NFL compared to all other team's point differential from their last nine games

1. Kansas City +144
2. Arizona +118
3. Carolina +112
4. Seattle +107
5. New England + 73

 

[MHSL82]

Yes, Kansas City won 9 straight, but those close games make KC look like a pretender, right?

Nick Jacobs reported on Twitter

Since the game versus Pittsburgh on October 25, the Chiefs have tallied a point differential of +144 in their nine-game winning streak. This leads the NFL compared to all other team's point differential from their last nine games

1. Kansas City +144
2. Arizona +118
3. Carolina +112
4. Seattle +107
5. New England + 73

OK, OK, but Kansas City has had an easy schedule for the past nine games. They should have a bigger point differential, right?

Let's examine that assertion. NFL.COM Power Ranking for week 16 grades all 32 teams from 1 to 32. So, take those same teams' schedules and add up the corresponding point values credited to their opponents's week 16 ranking. Then divide those sums by 9 to get the average player ranking of teams played. Its not perfect, but it is fair. The lower cumulative average rating should indicate a tougher schedule in the final nine games. Then round up of down to the closest whole number.

Here is what we find
1. New England 17 equivalent to playing Atlanta Falcons
2. Arizona 18 equivalent to playing Detroit Lions
3. Kansas City 19 equivalent to playing New York Giants
4. Carolina 20 equivalent to playing New Orleans Saints
5. Seattle 22 equivalent to playing Indianapolis Colts

Listen, the Chiefs do have an easier schedule than they did the first part of the season. Is it much easier than the others? NO. Its about the same.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

@MHSL82 definitely can't argue against the idea that these last 9 games being easier. At the same time, I think we also have eyeballs and the intuitive knowledge that a team winning by an average of at least 16 points isn't just getting fat on bad teams; 10-3 and 17-13 have been the exception as of late. This is much, much different from 2013 when fans were just happy to see a semi-functioning product. I don't see WR's running circles around our secondary like I did in 2013. I don't see Bowe or Avery bumming it up out there, I don't see a weak set of DE's around Poe. A few things remain like the inability to handle the most mobile QB's in the NFL- but that's not a serious problem for the Chiefs given how the AFC field is shaking out.

 

[MHSL82]

@MHSL82 definitely can't argue against the idea that these last 9 games being easier. At the same time, I think we also have eyeballs and the intuitive knowledge that a team winning by an average of at least 16 points isn't just getting fat on bad teams; 10-3 and 17-13 have been the exception as of late. This is much, much different from 2013 when fans were just happy to see a semi-functioning product. I don't see WR's running circles around our secondary like I did in 2013. I don't see Bowe or Avery bumming it up out there, I don't see a weak set of DE's around Poe. A few things remain like the inability to handle the most mobile QB's in the NFL- but that's not a serious problem for the Chiefs given how the AFC field is shaking out.

I was posting that in a Devils Advocate sort of way. I tried to show how those people who claim point differential isn't enough or the schedule was too easy, aren't really looking at the whole picture. I tried to post the stats to show that the easier schedule was in relation to the hard start, not overall. The Chiefs are playing about the middle of the pack, not the worst teams.

 

[kcvet]

strange the Chiefs winning streak started when the Royals won it all. and both made it to the playoffs. first time history

 

[Black Adam]

good news, 10 wins in a row. new franchise record...

bad news, looks like the Donks are still gonna take the AFC west...

 

[MHSL82]

Do the Chiefs belong in the playoffs?