Divisions' Relative Strenghts

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Recently, I was talking about the 2015 NL East's relative weakness to the rest of baseball. It seems to me that with three teams pushing 100 losses, it's a historically weak division. Mets fans seem to not like to hear that shit. I say it anyway.

The other day I pointed out that the NL West's combined W% was .490 and the NL East's was .460. Hu questioned:

.030 is statistically significant in...what universe again?

So I calculated the winning % over the last eleven years (2015-2005) of each division. Here're the results, ranked by win%:

Rank Year Division Wins Losses Win%
1 2012 ALW 351 297 0.542
2 2009 ALW 351 297 0.542
3 2008 ALE 435 374 0.538
4 2013 ALE 433 378 0.534
5 2010 ALE 431 379 0.532
6 2015 NLC 421 374 0.530
7 2011 ALE 428 382 0.528
8 2006 ALW 340 308 0.525
9 2005 NLE 425 385 0.525
10 2013 NLC 421 389 0.520
11 2006 ALC 421 389 0.520
12 2007 NLW 422 390 0.520
13 2015 ALE 413 382 0.519
14 2011 NLE 420 389 0.519
15 2012 ALE 420 390 0.519
16 2009 ALE 420 390 0.519
17 2008 NLC 500 470 0.515
18 2007 ALW 333 315 0.514
19 2012 NLE 416 394 0.514
20 2010 NLE 416 394 0.514
21 2009 NLE 416 394 0.514
22 2005 ALW 330 317 0.510
23 2014 ALE 411 399 0.507
24 2005 ALE 411 399 0.507
25 2014 ALW 410 400 0.506
26 2010 NLW 410 400 0.506
27 2006 NLE 410 400 0.506
28 2014 NLC 409 401 0.505
29 2015 ALC 400 393 0.504
30 2011 NLW 406 400 0.504
31 2007 ALE 408 402 0.504
32 2005 NLC 489 483 0.503
33 2014 ALC 407 403 0.502
34 2008 ALC 407 405 0.501
35 2007 NLE 405 405 0.500
36 2006 NLW 404 405 0.499
37 2014 NLE 404 406 0.499
38 2007 ALC 404 406 0.499
39 2011 ALW 323 325 0.498
40 2015 ALW 395 400 0.497
41 2005 ALC 402 408 0.496
42 2012 NLW 401 409 0.495
43 2009 NLW 401 409 0.495
44 2006 ALE 401 409 0.495
45 2013 ALC 400 410 0.494
46 2013 NLW 399 411 0.493
47 2010 ALC 399 411 0.493
48 2015 NLW 390 405 0.491
49 2008 NLE 396 412 0.490
50 2008 ALW 315 332 0.487
51 2013 NLE 391 419 0.483
52 2010 ALW 312 336 0.481
53 2014 NLW 389 421 0.480
54 2011 ALC 388 422 0.479
55 2011 NLC 464 508 0.477
56 2013 ALW 387 424 0.477
57 2012 NLC 463 509 0.476
58 2009 NLC 463 509 0.476
59 2010 NLC 462 510 0.475
60 2007 NLC 459 513 0.472
61 2012 ALC 379 431 0.468
62 2009 ALC 379 431 0.468
63 2006 NLC 453 518 0.467
64 2008 NLW 375 435 0.463
65 2005 NLW 372 438 0.459
66 2015 NLE 365 430 0.459

Of the sixty-six divisions I tallied, the 2015 NL East ranks 66th. I'd also suggest that since over the last eleven years and 66 divisions, there's only a top to bottom difference of .084, that .030 difference is pretty significant.

Granted, twenty-seven thousand games is a small sample, so Hu should probably go @Rock Strongo style and shit on the chess board.

 

[Villain]

Of the sixty-six divisions I tallied, the 2015 NL East ranks 66th.

Yep. The Braves and the Phillies looked like minor league teams at times this year.

 

[calsnowskier]

Recently, I was talking about the 2015 NL East's relative weakness to the rest of baseball. It seems to me that with three teams pushing 100 losses, it's a historically weak division. Mets fans seem to not like to hear that shit. I say it anyway.

The other day I pointed out that the NL West's combined W% was .490 and the NL East's was .460. Hu questioned:


So I calculated the winning % over the last eleven years (2015-2005) of each division. Here're the results, ranked by win%:

Rank Year Division Wins Losses Win%
1 2012 ALW 351 297 0.542
2 2009 ALW 351 297 0.542
3 2008 ALE 435 374 0.538
4 2013 ALE 433 378 0.534
5 2010 ALE 431 379 0.532
6 2015 NLC 421 374 0.530
7 2011 ALE 428 382 0.528
8 2006 ALW 340 308 0.525
9 2005 NLE 425 385 0.525
10 2013 NLC 421 389 0.520
11 2006 ALC 421 389 0.520
12 2007 NLW 422 390 0.520
13 2015 ALE 413 382 0.519
14 2011 NLE 420 389 0.519
15 2012 ALE 420 390 0.519
16 2009 ALE 420 390 0.519
17 2008 NLC 500 470 0.515
18 2007 ALW 333 315 0.514
19 2012 NLE 416 394 0.514
20 2010 NLE 416 394 0.514
21 2009 NLE 416 394 0.514
22 2005 ALW 330 317 0.510
23 2014 ALE 411 399 0.507
24 2005 ALE 411 399 0.507
25 2014 ALW 410 400 0.506
26 2010 NLW 410 400 0.506
27 2006 NLE 410 400 0.506
28 2014 NLC 409 401 0.505
29 2015 ALC 400 393 0.504
30 2011 NLW 406 400 0.504
31 2007 ALE 408 402 0.504
32 2005 NLC 489 483 0.503
33 2014 ALC 407 403 0.502
34 2008 ALC 407 405 0.501
35 2007 NLE 405 405 0.500
36 2006 NLW 404 405 0.499
37 2014 NLE 404 406 0.499
38 2007 ALC 404 406 0.499
39 2011 ALW 323 325 0.498
40 2015 ALW 395 400 0.497
41 2005 ALC 402 408 0.496
42 2012 NLW 401 409 0.495
43 2009 NLW 401 409 0.495
44 2006 ALE 401 409 0.495
45 2013 ALC 400 410 0.494
46 2013 NLW 399 411 0.493
47 2010 ALC 399 411 0.493
48 2015 NLW 390 405 0.491
49 2008 NLE 396 412 0.490
50 2008 ALW 315 332 0.487
51 2013 NLE 391 419 0.483
52 2010 ALW 312 336 0.481
53 2014 NLW 389 421 0.480
54 2011 ALC 388 422 0.479
55 2011 NLC 464 508 0.477
56 2013 ALW 387 424 0.477
57 2012 NLC 463 509 0.476
58 2009 NLC 463 509 0.476
59 2010 NLC 462 510 0.475
60 2007 NLC 459 513 0.472
61 2012 ALC 379 431 0.468
62 2009 ALC 379 431 0.468
63 2006 NLC 453 518 0.467
64 2008 NLW 375 435 0.463
65 2005 NLW 372 438 0.459
66 2015 NLE 365 430 0.459

Of the sixty-six divisions I tallied, the 2015 NL East ranks 66th. I'd also suggest that since over the last eleven years and 66 divisions, there's only a top to bottom difference of .084, that .030 difference is pretty significant.

Granted, twenty-seven thousand games is a small sample, so Hu should probably go @Rock Strongo style and shit on the chess board.

Good work.

Just a bit-pick, but you did typo the percentages for the bottom two teams. I have not calculated them myself, so I am not sure which is wrong, but you have the same percentage for both.

 

[molsaniceman]

Good work.

Just a bit-pick, but you did typo the percentages for the bottom two teams. I have not calculated them myself, so I am not sure which is wrong, but you have the same percentage for both.

2015 isnt over yet If u notice the team with the best percentage doesnt have the most wins

 

[calsnowskier]

2015 isnt over yet If u notice the team with the best percentage doesnt have the most wins

Ah...

Didn't notice there were not the same number of games...

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Good work.

Just a bit-pick, but you did typo the percentages for the bottom two teams. I have not calculated them myself, so I am not sure which is wrong, but you have the same percentage for both.

Why do you think one has to be wrong?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

2015 isnt over yet If u notice the team with the best percentage doesnt have the most wins

Can't look at number of wins because there were divisions with four and six teams in them.

 

[Villain]

When I get a chance I'll go an put the WS matchup for each of those years.

 

[Villain]

When I get a chance I'll go an put the WS matchup for each of those years.

It's easier to just list the results with the best division record that year.

2005 - CHW/HOU 9 2005 NLE 425 385 0.525
2006 - STL/DET 8 2006 ALW 340 308 0.525
2007 - BOS/COL 12 2007 NLW 422 390 0.520
2008 - PHI/TBR 3 2008 ALE 435 374 0.538
2009 - NYY/PHI 2 2009 ALW 351 297 0.542
2010 - SFG/TEX 5 2010 ALE 431 379 0.532
2011 - STL/TEX 7 2011 ALE 428 382 0.528
2012 - SFG/DET 1 2012 ALW 351 297 0.542
2013 - BOS/STL 4 2013 ALE 433 378 0.534
2014 - SFG/KCR 23 2014 ALE 411 399 0.507
2015 - LAD/??? 6 2015 NLC 421 374 0.530

Only three times was the World Series been won by the team from the toughest division.

*I'm enjoying some brewskies so feel free to double-check me.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

It's easier to just list the results with the best division record that year.

2005 - CHW/HOU 9 2005 NLE 425 385 0.525
2006 - STL/DET 8 2006 ALW 340 308 0.525
2007 - BOS/COL 12 2007 NLW 422 390 0.520
2008 - PHI/TBR 3 2008 ALE 435 374 0.538
2009 - NYY/PHI 2 2009 ALW 351 297 0.542
2010 - SFG/TEX 5 2010 ALE 431 379 0.532
2011 - STL/TEX 7 2011 ALE 428 382 0.528
2012 - SFG/DET 1 2012 ALW 351 297 0.542
2013 - BOS/STL 4 2013 ALE 433 378 0.534
2014 - SFG/KCR 23 2014 ALE 411 399 0.507
2015 - LAD/??? 6 2015 NLC 421 374 0.530

Only three times was the World Series been won by the team from the toughest division.

*I'm enjoying some brewskies so feel free to double-check me.

What does the number after the matchup indicate? For example, 2005:

2005 - CHW/HOU 9 2005 NLE 425 385 0.525

What's that 9?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

It's easier to just list the results with the best division record that year.

2005 - CHW/HOU 9 2005 NLE 425 385 0.525
2006 - STL/DET 8 2006 ALW 340 308 0.525
2007 - BOS/COL 12 2007 NLW 422 390 0.520
2008 - PHI/TBR 3 2008 ALE 435 374 0.538
2009 - NYY/PHI 2 2009 ALW 351 297 0.542
2010 - SFG/TEX 5 2010 ALE 431 379 0.532
2011 - STL/TEX 7 2011 ALE 428 382 0.528
2012 - SFG/DET 1 2012 ALW 351 297 0.542
2013 - BOS/STL 4 2013 ALE 433 378 0.534
2014 - SFG/KCR 23 2014 ALE 411 399 0.507
2015 - LAD/??? 6 2015 NLC 421 374 0.530

Only three times was the World Series been won by the team from the toughest division.

*I'm enjoying some brewskies so feel free to double-check me.

I do have to say, this is a digression from the thread subject.

It's not unwelcome, but I don't want anyone to mistake my post as any kind of postseason predictor on my part. The postseason's a crapshoot. There are recent examples of what I would consider the worst team in the playoffs taking home the hardware, so I don't see how playoff results have anything to do with divisional relative strengths, other than an interesting aside.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I've always thought that the Tigers' recent success had them (and Dombrowski) overrated by quite a bit because they were winning a weak division. This ranking lends some credence to that theory.

The Tigers won the AL Central 2011-2014. Of the 66 divisions ranked above, here's how the ALC ranked in those years:

2011 - 54th
2012 - 61st
2013 - 45th
2014 - 33rd

Considering the ALC's weakness in those years, I felt that if the Tigers were so good, they should have run away with the division, which they only did in 2011. The following years they barely won by 3, 1 and 1 games ahead of the number 2 teams.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

This exercise made me think of 2001, where the Oakland A's won 102 gams and finished fourteenfuckinggames behind the first place Mariners (116-46).

Given the 2001 A's and M's combined W% of .673, you'd think the Angels and Rangers would have had to have pitiful records, but they really didn't - only 6 and 8 games below .500, respectively.

That all adds up to a ridiculous divisional W% of .565, which would easily top the above list.

I'd like to expand this ranking to the start of the six-division format (1994), but don't know if I ever will. I suppose I should also update 2015's numbers to include the last weekend of the season.

 

[tducey]

Divisions are always like this; Strong or Weak. I remember 1994, the strike year, the 4 teams in the AL West all where below .500 now it's one of the best divisions in baseball.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Divisions are always like this; Strong or Weak. I remember 1994, the strike year, the 4 teams in the AL West all where below .500 now it's one of the best divisions in baseball.

So basically, what you're saying is that MLB divisions do, in fact, have relative strengths?