Detroit Red Wing Odds of Winning Series

[Voltaire26]

Looking for an intelligent mathematical approach to the question of what are the Red Wings odds to win the series. Providing no home ice advantage and both team equal talent wise, I would use the formula .5*.5*.5 would equal .125 giving the Red Wings a 12.5% chance of winning the series. Now you have to add in some intangibles (San Jose was up 3-0, momentum and home ice advantage). I think all the intangibles favor San Jose. If we believe that a 12.5% chance equals 8-1 odds. I would multiply 2 for the intangibles putting the odds at 16-1.

I do think if the Red Wings win tonight at San Jose, the momentum shifts back to even and it just become .5*.5 = .25 which would equal a 4-1 odds. At that point, the intangibles would have shifted to closer to even. So I would say 6-1.

Opinions appreciated

GO WINGS

 

[postmaster]

I would not go with a 50% chance to win the road games.
My estimate would be closer to 35% for the road games and 55% for the home game.
That would be about 14.5 to 1

Edit: The reason I give the Sharks a higher % is because they have been winning the faceoff battle which I weigh in my percentages.

 

[Winged_Wheel88]

Using a complex formula I derived that we're pretty much fucked unless we win the next 3 in a row.

 

[Voltaire26]

Using a complex formula I derived that we're pretty much fucked unless we win the next 3 in a row.

True That

 

[Bizzle McDizzle]

Using a complex formula I derived that we're pretty much fucked unless we win the next 3 in a row.

I think we took the same class, because that's exactly the math I came up with.

 

[juliansteed]

Looking for an intelligent mathematical approach to the question of what are the Red Wings odds to win the series. Providing no home ice advantage and both team equal talent wise, I would use the formula .5*.5*.5 would equal .125 giving the Red Wings a 12.5% chance of winning the series. Now you have to add in some intangibles (San Jose was up 3-0, momentum and home ice advantage). I think all the intangibles favor San Jose. If we believe that a 12.5% chance equals 8-1 odds. I would multiply 2 for the intangibles putting the odds at 16-1.

I do think if the Red Wings win tonight at San Jose, the momentum shifts back to even and it just become .5*.5 = .25 which would equal a 4-1 odds. At that point, the intangibles would have shifted to closer to even. So I would say 6-1.

Opinions appreciated

GO WINGS

Just an FYI, 12.5% chance actually equals 7:1 odds and 25% actually equals 3:1 odds. Its the ratio of something not happening vs the ratio of it happening. For example, if something has a 50/50 chance then the odds would be 1:1 not 2:1.

 

[Voltaire26]

Just an FYI, 12.5% chance actually equals 7:1 odds and 25% actually equals 3:1 odds. Its the ratio of something not happening vs the ratio of it happening. For example, if something has a 50/50 chance then the odds would be 1:1 not 2:1.

Blame it on a Detroit High School ... as time goes by odds are getting slimmer.

P.S. Thanks for the math lesson!!

 

[juliansteed]

Blame it on a Detroit High School ... as time goes by odds are getting slimmer.

P.S. Thanks for the math lesson!!

Its a common mistake made by many. I likely never would have noticed the difference except that I recently went over this while reading a stats book.

 

[juliansteed]

Also your calculations don't appear to take into account the chokability factor of the Sharks.

The Sharks are actually 2-8 all-time in games that can send them to the conference finals.

 

[Voltaire26]

Also your calculations don't appear to take into account the chokability factor of the Sharks.

The Sharks are actually 2-8 all-time in games that can send them to the conference finals.

I hope your right, right now my money would be on San Jose: my heart always with Detroit

 

[juliansteed]

Well Detroit is now leading in the 3rd so as of this moment you'd have to give them better than 50% to win this game. And if they do win this game, I personally would give them better than 50% of winning each of the 2 remaining games. Maybe about 60% each which would still favor the Sharks overall since that would only give them a 36% chance of coming all the way back but its better than 25%.

 

[rares]

I'll check Vegas odds later tonight but I'm guessing series odds have shifted tremendously after the win tonight...

If it gets to Game 7, Detroit should realistically be slight favorite in it and they've got the fanbase to bet the line up a little if it ends up being close to pick'em or having the Sharks slight favorites.

Agreed mostly with juliansteed re: series odds as of now...

 

[dash]

I was told there would be no math...

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

Forget the numbers. We're talking about the Sharks. Anything is possible.

 

[rares]

Forget the numbers. We're talking about the Sharks. Anything is possible.

Sad but true.

Unfortunately, Vegas oddsmakers aren't stupid (so you can't profit much from it). They're well aware of the choke risks. It's a big part of the reason Detroit was favorite (-125 money line) to win the series before the puck dropped for Game 1.

 

[naes666]

Forget the numbers. We're talking about the Sharks. Anything is possible.

this is true and i am about to move the Islanders up to my #1 team if the Sharks choke this series. and no i am not joking.

 

[devs30rko]

this is true and i am about to move the Islanders up to my #1 team if the Sharks choke this series. and no i am not joking.

i'd be shitting my pants right now. detroit is not a team you want gaining momentum, while i think they are starting to slow down a bit as the core gets older there is simply too much talent on that team to let it get rolling.


at this point, i'm saying they have about a one thirds chance of winning.

if they win game 6 i'm bumping that shit up to a 90% chance

 

[Ties5o11]

Sharks did everything they had to do to win tonight. Hockey can be random. Wings scored on 4 of their 7 chances, Sharks scored on 3 of their 15. Give credit to the Wings, but they need to be a lot better to win this series.

Sharks in 6. Period.

 

[Ties5o11]

i'd be shitting my pants right now. detroit is not a team you want gaining momentum, while i think they are starting to slow down a bit as the core gets older there is simply too much talent on that team to let it get rolling.


at this point, i'm saying they have about a one thirds chance of winning.

if they win game 6 i'm bumping that shit up to a 90% chance

Since when has moentum, ever, I mean ever, meant anything in hockey. Seriously, I would think a sports SportsHoopla (non swamp) poster would know this simple fact.

Edit: Momentum between games, not within a game.

 

[Ties5o11]

Well Detroit is now leading in the 3rd so as of this moment you'd have to give them better than 50% to win this game. And if they do win this game, I personally would give them better than 50% of winning each of the 2 remaining games. Maybe about 60% each which would still favor the Sharks overall since that would only give them a 36% chance of coming all the way back but its better than 25%.

Exhibit A why I dont frequent the Sharks board. No pride. Most negative fan base I have ever (digitally) been around. We are up 3-2 on a GREAT hockey team, and if the Wings didn't get a few random goals would have won it tonight.

The Rares syndrome is spreading I suppose.

GO SHARKS!!!