Completely Non-FF Thoughts

[TREFF]

we will definitely see... but i would be shocked if google would sign that contract if they forced people to subscribe to their provider... i dont really understand why that would be beneificial for the NFL and Goodell unless their intent is to hurt google and to hurt the package itself...

because if they get paid more, based on new youtube subscribers. it would be in their interest to force youtube/google to have more subscribers..thus, if they want to sell your product, force them to be subscribers in order to drive that number higher and reach that escalator in the contract..pretty simple. And quiet likely why you could never purchase the Ticket stand alone form Direct TV

Besides that, it's in youtube's best interest as well..paying 2.5 billion for it, at $300 a pop, they'd need 8.34 million subscibers to break even, makes sense to force the standard subscription on top of that to lower that threshold, as obviously..the NFL sunday ticket doesn't currently have 8.3 million subscribers, they have roughly 1.5 million. Only way to justify the cost is to force that additional monthly cost as well

 

[SmokingMonkey]

because if they get paid more, based on new youtube subscribers. it would be in their interest to force youtube/google to have more subscribers..thus, if they want to sell your product, force them to be subscribers in order to drive that number higher and reach that escalator in the contract..pretty simple. And quiet likely why you could never purchase the Ticket stand alone form Direct TV

Besides that, it's in youtube's best interest as well..paying 2.5 billion for it, at $300 a pop, they'd need 8.34 million subscibers to break even, makes sense to force the standard subscription on top of that to lower that threshold, as obviously..the NFL sunday ticket doesn't currently have 8.3 million subscribers, they have roughly 1.5 million. Only way to justify the cost is to force that additional monthly cost as well

nothing close to an apples-apples comparison here, but for discussion, look at Costco.
Tiny profit margins on the goods they sell (half of what Walmart's total store margin was in 2021), but damn near 100% margins on the membership fees. They collected $3.9billion in membership fees in 2021, did over $192billion in sales, and ended up with $5.2bil profit. Membership fees are a major profit center, and in large part, the reason why a footlong hotdog and soda still only cost $1.50

YT TV subscription fees (same as costco membership) will drive the profits, but Google will still have to be willing to be a loss leader to acquire the streaming rights (costco's goods for sale in stores)

 

[TREFF]

nothing close to an apples-apples comparison here, but for discussion, look at Costco.
Tiny profit margins on the goods they sell (half of what Walmart's total store margin was in 2021), but damn near 100% margins on the membership fees. They collected $3.9billion in membership fees in 2021, did over $192billion in sales, and ended up with $5.2bil profit. Membership fees are a major profit center, and in large part, the reason why a footlong hotdog and soda still only cost $1.50

YT TV subscription fees (same as costco membership) will drive the profits, but Google will still have to be willing to be a loss leader to acquire the streaming rights (costco's goods for sale in stores)

oh fer sure, at the very least for the short term. i mean, the entire purpose of acquiring those rights, long term, is to drive memberships, which is, like you just said, where the real profit is. A short term loss, is nothing if they can get their monthly subscribers in the 10-15 million range (where DIrectTV is now), up from the current 5 or so. That'd be a huge win, no matter what they lose in the next year or two.

Form what I know, the DTV subscribers I personally know..granted, limited sample size, but still..., nearly %100 of them are with DTV solely because of the Sunday ticket, youtube would almost automatically gain all those people, and my guess is it a very significant portion of that 1.5 million.

I've been reading that there is speculation that Youtube may be offering an 'ala carte' type option, possible a per game 'PPV' type deal, or maybe even a "1 team" option where you subscribe to just that one team's out of market games at a lower cost. Given what's out there, or more relevantly what's not out there, as far as the details of the contract, one can only speculate as to the agreed upon terms and what kinds of restrictions the NFL has in place in ways that things can be offered. But I would be very surprised if any of the options they come up with don't require a base line monthly Youtube subscription along with them.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

because if they get paid more, based on new youtube subscribers. it would be in their interest to force youtube/google to have more subscribers..thus, if they want to sell your product, force them to be subscribers in order to drive that number higher and reach that escalator in the contract..pretty simple. And quiet likely why you could never purchase the Ticket stand alone form Direct TV

Besides that, it's in youtube's best interest as well..paying 2.5 billion for it, at $300 a pop, they'd need 8.34 million subscibers to break even, makes sense to force the standard subscription on top of that to lower that threshold, as obviously..the NFL sunday ticket doesn't currently have 8.3 million subscribers, they have roughly 1.5 million. Only way to justify the cost is to force that additional monthly cost as well

IMO that makes no sense

they can call nfl sunday ticket subscribers as youtube subscribers whether they pay for the base plan or not... its just semantics...

but making them pay for the base plan is just not good business... dont make customers choose between a better tv provider vs themselves... anyone interested in tv itself will not make the change...

it is also not going to be a mass migration to youtube because of this... the package is too expensive and too niche... but if it is stand alone, then everyone who paid for it with DTV will certainly pay for it here... and will get customers from other tv providers...

again, they can charge more to non youtube base subscribers

and give perks to youtube subscribers for paying for this package... it would be a much better business move IMO...

 

[SmokingMonkey]

IMO that makes no sense

they can call nfl sunday ticket subscribers as youtube subscribers whether they pay for the base plan or not... its just semantics...

but making them pay for the base plan is just not good business... dont make customers choose between a better tv provider vs themselves... anyone interested in tv itself will not make the change...

it is also not going to be a mass migration to youtube because of this... the package is too expensive and too niche... but if it is stand alone, then everyone who paid for it with DTV will certainly pay for it here... and will get customers from other tv providers...

again, they can charge more to non youtube base subscribers

and give perks to youtube subscribers for paying for this package... it would be a much better business move IMO...

dont underestimate the strength of NFL gamblers - as more and more states open up the floodgates, there will be more and more people pouring research into that angle. and a lot of that starts with watching the games.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

dont underestimate the strength of NFL gamblers - as more and more states open up the floodgates, there will be more and more people pouring research into that angle. and a lot of that starts with watching the games.

im not underestimating, i just dont see the beneifit of making these degenerates pay for base service too... doesnt do anything...

but i guess 65 dollars extra per month is not a huge deal, if you are willing to spend 300+.... but after the 4 months of the football season, i bet that most of these people will end their youtube tv subscriptions... which again, makes me say whats the point of forcing the base on them... for 65 dollars??

 

[averagejoe]

dont underestimate the strength of NFL gamblers

That could add a twist from a "website" perspective.

Take for example those old-schoolers (like Bandit, Lefty and Harold) who do things on their big screen computers.... I am sure it is merely an algorythm away to add an in-game gambling feature.

And like any bookie, broker or website, they will get a "cut" of the bets. They may be in the process of getting their gambling liscense right now.

 

[TREFF]

IMO that makes no sense

they can call nfl sunday ticket subscribers as youtube subscribers whether they pay for the base plan or not... its just semantics...

but making them pay for the base plan is just not good business... dont make customers choose between a better tv provider vs themselves... anyone interested in tv itself will not make the change...

it is also not going to be a mass migration to youtube because of this... the package is too expensive and too niche... but if it is stand alone, then everyone who paid for it with DTV will certainly pay for it here... and will get customers from other tv providers...

again, they can charge more to non youtube base subscribers

and give perks to youtube subscribers for paying for this package... it would be a much better business move IMO...

when it comes to legaleze and contracts, semantics is ALL that matters, so its makes total sense. you can't just dismiss the argument as nothing but semantics when semantics is exactly what the contract lawyers depend upon

 

[TREFF]

im not underestimating, i just dont see the beneifit of making these degenerates pay for base service too... doesnt do anything...

but i guess 65 dollars extra per month is not a huge deal, if you are willing to spend 300+.... but after the 4 months of the football season, i bet that most of these people will end their youtube tv subscriptions... which again, makes me say whats the point of forcing the base on them... for 65 dollars??

yep they likely will, but it's $260 a pop that they wouldn't have gotten had they not required it, take that times even jsut one realistic guess of 1.5 million (the amount of current Sunday ticket subscribers)= $390 million dollars

I mean if you continue saying you just don't get it and what's the point after seeing that very simple,. very realistic number..just give it up man..just give it up

 

[MilkSpiller22]

yep they likely will, but it's $260 a pop that they wouldn't have gotten had they not required it, take that times even jsut one realistic guess of 1.5 million (the amount of current Sunday ticket subscribers)= $390 million dollars

I mean if you continue saying you just don't get it and what's the point after seeing that very simple,. very realistic number..just give it up man..just give it up

There is nothing more to do than to wait for the actual contract to come out. I have no clue how much it will cost or anything.

My entire argument is simply that the base package will not be a requirement for getting the Sunday ticket. You think it will be.

Wanna make a bet. Just for fun. Make it an avatar bet. I need a new one anyway!!! And I am sure you’d want to get rid of your mark davis one!!!

 

[TREFF]

dont underestimate the strength of NFL gamblers - as more and more states open up the floodgates, there will be more and more people pouring research into that angle. and a lot of that starts with watching the games.

that's where i get all my 'eye test' opinions from..red zone doesn't give me that..all the week long coverage of NFL games doens't give me that..only watching the games can do that..and why, IMHO, I've slipped a step since not having the Sunday TIcket..the bastards.

If I did more money leagues, especially BIG money leagues, or if I foolishly tried stepping into the real gambling arena and started betting on games and prop bets, I would have ZERO problems forking over 300..hell maybe even 500 for it

 

[MilkSpiller22]

that's where i get all my 'eye test' opinions from..red zone doesn't give me that..all the week long coverage of NFL games doens't give me that..only watching the games can do that..and why, IMHO, I've slipped a step since not having the Sunday TIcket..the bastards.

If I did more money leagues, especially BIG money leagues, or if I foolishly tried stepping into the real gambling arena and started betting on games and prop bets, I would have ZERO problems forking over 300..hell maybe even 500 for it

See my bet. Again. There will be different packages of the Sunday ticket. Just like with DTV.

There will be an all access one. Which I think will just be for YouTube tv subscribers

But then there will be the standard one. Which won’t have the requirement of being a YouTube tv base plan subscriber.

 

[TREFF]

There is nothing more to do than to wait for the actual contract to come out. I have no clue how much it will cost or anything.

My entire argument is simply that the base package will not be a requirement for getting the Sunday ticket. You think it will be.

Wanna make a bet. Just for fun. Make it an avatar bet. I need a new one anyway!!! And I am sure you’d want to get rid of your mark davis one!!!

well we'd have to clear that with Monkey.

And honestly, I'd very much prefer for you to be right, that's what's best for the consumer. It's just not what's best for eithe rthe NFL or the provider, be it youtube/google, apple, dTV..or Disney, or whomever


But I'm not talking about being right or wrong or winning a bet..I'm saying its very black and white as to the reasoning why they would do it, wehther they do or don't. You not seeing that reasoning as justifiable from a business sense, just baffles me beyond belief

 

[TREFF]

See my bet. Again. There will be different packages of the Sunday ticket. Just like with DTV.

There will be an all access one. Which I think will just be for YouTube tv subscribers

But then there will be the standard one. Which won’t have the requirement of being a YouTube tv base plan subscriber.

DTV only had three packages, and the difference? one was standard, one was 4KHD, the other had the redzone included..there were no true real differences. And eventually the standard one dropped off and all you had was the 4k HD or 4k HD w/ Redzone. there were no other options

 

[MilkSpiller22]

well we'd have to clear that with Monkey.

And honestly, I'd very much prefer for you to be right, that's what's best for the consumer. It's just not what's best for eithe rthe NFL or the provider, be it youtube/google, apple, dTV..or Disney, or whomever


But I'm not talking about being right or wrong or winning a bet..I'm saying its very black and white as to the reasoning why they would do it, wehther they do or don't. You not seeing that reasoning as justifiable form a business sense, just baffles me beyond belief

And I disagree with your reasoning. I’m not making my opinion based on what I hope. I just see it to be a waste of time and effort.

 

[TREFF]

And I disagree with your reasoning. I’m not making my opinion based on what I hope. I just see it to be a waste of time and effort.

Christ almighty, its not MY reasoning, its common sense good business reasoning..and disagree with it all you like, it doesn't delete its existence as common sense reality. And acknowledging it as such doens't make your opinion about it wrong

 

[Chef99]

@averagejoe , see what you went and started??

 

[averagejoe]

Will

@averagejoe , see what you went and started??

Hmmmm.... how did we go from antennas to an avi bet?

 

[Bandit]

So as a Direct TV customer, I will be going ahead and switching over to the Youtube TV base package as soon as my six months of paying for Sunday ticket is over. There is really nothing on the TV side of Direct TV that I can't live without and Youtube TV is about $50 per month cheaper than Direct TV is for basically the same channels, at least the channels that I watch the most. Once they decide what they are going to do for the Sunday ticket I will be purchasing whatever I can to get all of the games. If it's $500 then it's $500, but that also gives me a reason to tell my wife that I paid $500 for this so I'm watching football on Sundays. She's really good about it though.

 

[molsaniceman]

we will definitely see... but i would be shocked if google would sign that contract if they forced people to subscribe to their provider... i dont really understand why that would be beneificial for the NFL and Goodell unless their intent is to hurt google and to hurt the package itself...

cause its beneficial to google not the nfl Its probably 1 of the reasons utube got sunday ticket is to increase their suscriber base I would be very shocked if u can get sunday ticket alone or its very expensive A report i saw said direct tv lost 500 mil last year on the ticket