Combine and Prospects in Upcoming Draft

[CrashDavisSports]

First one I am going to add is Shemar Stewart, he appears to be a freak of nature, recording the first 10 rating at the combine at DE in NFL history out of 1803 DE's tested during that time. His sack numbers in college are way down, so not sure how his athletic ability isn't matching up with results. However, after this combine, not sure he will make it to the Bengals at 17.

MSN

 

[Cincyfan78]

First one I am going to add is Shemar Stewart, he appears to be a freak of nature, recording the first 10 rating at the combine at DE in NFL history out of 1803 DE's tested during that time. His sack numbers in college are way down, so not sure how his athletic ability isn't matching up with results. However, after this combine, not sure he will make it to the Bengals at 17.

MSN

I've done some reading on him...I'll pass. Why? I want the numbers to match the tape...and it just doesn't. I think if you are going to go in on a 1st, or even 2nd, round guy - the Bengals cannot continue to bank on "potential" over production with these early picks.

My dream is Nolen from Ole Miss. Grant is #2...I think they really need a guy that can not only help in the run, as both will do, but both also have great pressure numbers/sack numbers for DT's. It's exactly what this defense was needing and got with Reader when healthy. They need another DT that can kind of be that anchor point, and I think either of these guys can do the job.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I've done some reading on him...I'll pass. Why? I want the numbers to match the tape...and it just doesn't. I think if you are going to go in on a 1st, or even 2nd, round guy - the Bengals cannot continue to bank on "potential" over production with these early picks.

My dream is Nolen from Ole Miss. Grant is #2...I think they really need a guy that can not only help in the run, as both will do, but both also have great pressure numbers/sack numbers for DT's. It's exactly what this defense was needing and got with Reader when healthy. They need another DT that can kind of be that anchor point, and I think either of these guys can do the job.

So did Nolen's numbers at the combine jump out at you? Just saw the article on Stewart thought I would start a thread specifically about prospects and the upcoming draft.

 

[Cincyfan78]

So did Nolen's numbers at the combine jump out at you? Just saw the article on Stewart thought I would start a thread specifically about prospects and the upcoming draft.

I'll be honest - I've never been a huge combine guy. It's something that players can train very specifically for to look good, but doesn't always translate to being good when the lights come on. I'd take game tape over combine stuff...though I do think the combine can be useful in some ways - I love the guy who does the RAS stuff, because you need guys who are, at worst, elite athletes on your team. Something the Bengals have always struggled with.

But, at the end of the day - how many players, OL, DT, even DE's run 40 yards in a dead sprint, in a straight line? Hell, even WR's don't do that in games, but maybe once or twice.

I think, too, the amount of coverage of teams, the amount of game film and tape that is now available when compared to, let's say, the early 90's is night and day, to put it mildly. Back then, for many players, even from bigger schools, the combine is where so many teams got their information from because there wasn't the kind of coverage there is today. Back then, you have ABC or NBC or CBS, and maybe ESPN that would carry a few games here or there...and it would be OSU, MI, USC, Miami, etc...and that would be it. Now you can turn on ESPN/ESPN+ and see Bethune Cookman play Rice every time there is a game.

Give me guys who dominate on game film in schemes/setups that are similar, or at least translatable, to what the team drafting is going to be doing. That, to me, is where you will find more hits than misses...

 

[Cincyfan78]

But, don't get me wrong, that doesn't mean we can talk about targets...I mean, if Stewart is there, and the DT's are gone, and he's one of maybe a DE, CB, etc...maybe you bank on his athleticism carrying through at the NFL level...but I worry about guys who are high level athletes but don't exactly have a year, somewhere, where they show out...Makes you wonder why they can be so talented and yet...not get the results.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

But, don't get me wrong, that doesn't mean we can talk about targets...I mean, if Stewart is there, and the DT's are gone, and he's one of maybe a DE, CB, etc...maybe you bank on his athleticism carrying through at the NFL level...but I worry about guys who are high level athletes but don't exactly have a year, somewhere, where they show out...Makes you wonder why they can be so talented and yet...not get the results.

Oweh of the Ravens was that same way. Athletic freak at combine, college numbers didn't match athleticism but is producing at NFL level, be it, moderate. I wouldn't call him a star, but he is definitely someone to have to deal with on that Ravens defensive front.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I'll be honest - I've never been a huge combine guy. It's something that players can train very specifically for to look good, but doesn't always translate to being good when the lights come on. I'd take game tape over combine stuff...though I do think the combine can be useful in some ways - I love the guy who does the RAS stuff, because you need guys who are, at worst, elite athletes on your team. Something the Bengals have always struggled with.

But, at the end of the day - how many players, OL, DT, even DE's run 40 yards in a dead sprint, in a straight line? Hell, even WR's don't do that in games, but maybe once or twice.

I think, too, the amount of coverage of teams, the amount of game film and tape that is now available when compared to, let's say, the early 90's is night and day, to put it mildly. Back then, for many players, even from bigger schools, the combine is where so many teams got their information from because there wasn't the kind of coverage there is today. Back then, you have ABC or NBC or CBS, and maybe ESPN that would carry a few games here or there...and it would be OSU, MI, USC, Miami, etc...and that would be it. Now you can turn on ESPN/ESPN+ and see Bethune Cookman play Rice every time there is a game.

Give me guys who dominate on game film in schemes/setups that are similar, or at least translatable, to what the team drafting is going to be doing. That, to me, is where you will find more hits than misses...

So if you take the combine with a grain of salt, and put more bank into a players results on the field, how do you evaluate their numbers based on competition? Because not all competition is built the same. How were Nolen's numbers against the big boys like Georgia, LSU, and Oklahoma? His game logs show that he disappeared. Combined in those 3 games, he had 5 tackles, 3 solo and no sacks. He basically became non-existent against bigger competition. Now, I still think that he is a good prospect, but how do you personally take into account his production? Because you can't just look at numbers, as competition in college ranks are not created equally.

I think you have to put evaluation into multiple things, on-field as well as combine to get measurements. Sometimes, a gifted player could be on a smaller school and they are surrounded by guys that will be going on to other things, and they are focused on by other teams. They don't get the stats but they created hassles for entire offenses to manage around. Just have to look at the full picture in my opinion. The combine alone is also not a good way to judge talent.

 

[Cincyfan78]

So if you take the combine with a grain of salt, and put more bank into a players results on the field, how do you evaluate their numbers based on competition? Because not all competition is built the same. How were Nolen's numbers against the big boys like Georgia, LSU, and Oklahoma? His game logs show that he disappeared. Combined in those 3 games, he had 5 tackles, 3 solo and no sacks. He basically became non-existent against bigger competition. Now, I still think that he is a good prospect, but how do you personally take into account his production? Because you can't just look at numbers, as competition in college ranks are not created equally.

I think you have to put evaluation into multiple things, on-field as well as combine to get measurements. Sometimes, a gifted player could be on a smaller school and they are surrounded by guys that will be going on to other things, and they are focused on by other teams. They don't get the stats but they created hassles for entire offenses to manage around. Just have to look at the full picture in my opinion. The combine alone is also not a good way to judge talent.

I think you hit it pretty good. The combine is nice to get some information you don't get from tape, especially on guys who you question the level or talent they faced. It's used as a way to marry the tape to the player, which is how I think you try and work how lower level guys are expected to fair at the NFL level...but, I am in agreement...you can't just turn on the tape - because you do need to know measurements, and there's something to the kids putting in work to do well at the combine. Interviews, and background checks, etc...it's all part of the process.

But, at the end of the day, if a guy runs a bit slower, or has a bit smaller hands, or whatever...if the tape shows they've been able to get it done (especially at a high level)...I think you lean tape. Hell, there were questions about Burrow's hand size...lol

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I think you hit it pretty good. The combine is nice to get some information you don't get from tape, especially on guys who you question the level or talent they faced. It's used as a way to marry the tape to the player, which is how I think you try and work how lower level guys are expected to fair at the NFL level...but, I am in agreement...you can't just turn on the tape - because you do need to know measurements, and there's something to the kids putting in work to do well at the combine. Interviews, and background checks, etc...it's all part of the process.

But, at the end of the day, if a guy runs a bit slower, or has a bit smaller hands, or whatever...if the tape shows they've been able to get it done (especially at a high level)...I think you lean tape. Hell, there were questions about Burrow's hand size...lol

True about Burrow's hand size, but one area you want a QB to excel at is his intellectual level, his charisma, his ability to read a defense at high speeds, his accuracy. A lot of the intangibles is what makes Burrow a super star, and most of that is only measurable in an interview with the player and others around him. Burrow didn't h ave the biggest arm, didn't have the biggest hands, isn;t the fastest QB. But his pocket awareness, his ability to read defenses, to lead men, his competitiveness...all of the things that make people want to be around Burrow is what makes him a great QB, it just happens that his stats his final year in college, even with his team around him, married his intangibles to one hell of a QB.

 

[Cincyfan78]

True about Burrow's hand size, but one area you want a QB to excel at is his intellectual level, his charisma, his ability to read a defense at high speeds, his accuracy. A lot of the intangibles is what makes Burrow a super star, and most of that is only measurable in an interview with the player and others around him. Burrow didn't h ave the biggest arm, didn't have the biggest hands, isn;t the fastest QB. But his pocket awareness, his ability to read defenses, to lead men, his competitiveness...all of the things that make people want to be around Burrow is what makes him a great QB, it just happens that his stats his final year in college, even with his team around him, married his intangibles to one hell of a QB.

Exactly - all the things that make him great were on film...and not so much the combine....

But seriously - you do both. You look at the film, and if you have questions you look at the combine numbers - and hopefully, you can come to a conclusion by utilizing both. When in doubt, however IMO, tape > combine...but that's when you are getting down to the nitty gritty and can't seem to lean one way or another...I'll trust film all day every day, especially those dudes that play at a high level in high level leagues.

 

[cincygrad]

I've done some reading on him...I'll pass. Why? I want the numbers to match the tape...and it just doesn't. I think if you are going to go in on a 1st, or even 2nd, round guy - the Bengals cannot continue to bank on "potential" over production with these early picks.

My dream is Nolen from Ole Miss. Grant is #2...I think they really need a guy that can not only help in the run, as both will do, but both also have great pressure numbers/sack numbers for DT's. It's exactly what this defense was needing and got with Reader when healthy. They need another DT that can kind of be that anchor point, and I think either of these guys can do the job.

I've now read in multiple places that Nolen has some issues that concern teams. I'll be honest - That scares me. I don't know if we can miss on another head case.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I've now read in multiple places that Nolen has some issues that concern teams. I'll be honest - That scares me. I don't know if we can miss on another head case.

Agreed. I haven't gone through the final results of a lot of the combine, but if there are concerns with any kind of character/ethic - then I would be extremely cautious. The Bengals cannot afford another ho-hum 1st, and even 2nd, round pick. They have to get these right.

If Nolen has concerns, I would also be intrigued by Grant, who was my original target - DT from Mich and Harmon is another guy who I really like as well, DT for Oregon. Not sure how they tested, or interviewed, but other guys whose names I've kind of tracked a little prior to the combine.

Same with Pearce and Green at DE - both have major character concerns, with both having some serious past character issues...going to be interesting to see how guys interview as this process move on, and as teams dig and find more information on all of these issues.

 

[DanBengalfan]

we're back to hoping our draft picks can be every day starters, and drafting based on positions of dire need, rather than having a good enough roster and drafting the best talent available within reason.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

we're back to hoping our draft picks can be every day starters, and drafting based on positions of dire need, rather than having a good enough roster and drafting the best talent available within reason.

Disagree. If a position of need is there with the best pick available, that is a no brainer, but right now, unless it is a straight up position of zero need or ability to make the roster: QB, FB, K, P......WR in the first couple rounds, unless we plan on trading Tee.

Everything on defense is up for debate. Best man available. RB is only going to be a backup, so later rounds. Interior offensive line is a need, but OT is not off the table. TE is still a need, but we have talent there especially if Gesicki comes back.

Way I see it, we do need defense, so whoever the best player on the board is in round 1 and 2 on defense, go that way.

 

[DanBengalfan]

Disagree. If a position of need is there with the best pick available, that is a no brainer, but right now, unless it is a straight up position of zero need or ability to make the roster: QB, FB, K, P......WR in the first couple rounds, unless we plan on trading Tee.

Everything on defense is up for debate. Best man available. RB is only going to be a backup, so later rounds. Interior offensive line is a need, but OT is not off the table. TE is still a need, but we have talent there especially if Gesicki comes back.

Way I see it, we do need defense, so whoever the best player on the board is in round 1 and 2 on defense, go that way.

I agree we don't have a deep need in the top 3 for QB, K, P. WR is contingent on Tee's contract or willingness to play. a FB who can run the ball occasionally when we have the lead may not be a bad idea, someone who's body has some durability to relieve the lighter running backs, is not a bad idea in my opinion, but these guys are usually tight ends these days. we also need to sign Gesicki, or someone similar. and FB/TE depth may not require a high pick.

but it does seem like we're kinda going to have to use 2 of the first 4 picks on the DL and possibly 4 of the first 6 picks on defense and pray that the people we draft will be starting and that they will be upgrades.

feels like we're back to the old days of using the draft as our free agency period.

it would be comforting if they would make a good offer to one of our big 3 free agents.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I agree we don't have a deep need in the top 3 for QB, K, P. WR is contingent on Tee's contract or willingness to play. a FB who can run the ball occasionally when we have the lead may not be a bad idea, someone who's body has some durability to relieve the lighter running backs, is not a bad idea in my opinion, but these guys are usually tight ends these days. we also need to sign Gesicki, or someone similar. and FB/TE depth may not require a high pick.

but it does seem like we're kinda going to have to use 2 of the first 4 picks on the DL and possibly 4 of the first 6 picks on defense and pray that the people we draft will be starting and that they will be upgrades.

feels like we're back to the old days of using the draft as our free agency period.

it would be comforting if they would make a good offer to one of our big 3 free agents.

That may be the case this year, and I will be happy with that if that means that Chase, Higgins and Hendrickson are extended. At that point, I think we still have some money if written into contracts right, but I am okay with Mike Brown screaming poor if that occurs.

 

[Cincyfan78]

That may be the case this year, and I will be happy with that if that means that Chase, Higgins and Hendrickson are extended. At that point, I think we still have some money if written into contracts right, but I am okay with Mike Brown screaming poor if that occurs.

Problem is - he can scream it, but it doesn't make it true...because it's not...

 

[Cincyfan78]

On a serious note - I agree with BD's thought - in the past, the Bengals would reach for guys because of need. They haven't done that as much, but they have erred on the side of potential a bit too much in the early rounds, IMO. Guys may eventually get there, but they needed more impact sooner.

At 17 - the Bengals are in a really good spot to land a good impact guy at multiple positions. They can trade back, and still land a high quality IOL, they can land a DT, an edge, even a WR (because, as much as I like Yoshi, and I do, I don't think Burton is going to work, and even if they get Gesicki back - they need more WR depth and talent - especially considering Higgins' injury history...but I digress...).

They can trade back and land a Safety, or even a CB (never have enough DE's who can rush, or CB's who can cover).

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Problem is - he can scream it, but it doesn't make it true...because it's not...

Probably true, but I don't mind if he does if that all gets done.

 

[DanBengalfan]

JJ makes 35 million a year.


the Bengals will offer to make Chase the highest paid WR in history, yet, it won't be what Chase is asking for. Chase's huge ask will be too much for the bengals. it's going to be a shit show.