Cole and Taillons path to the Majors?

[steelparrot]

2012 A 120 innings
2013 AA 140 innings
2014 AAA/ June callup 160 innings window opened
2015 MLB 180 innings

Maybe thats a bit too conservative for some, but that's about right imo. We can see how many innings they pitch this year. That will give us a better estimate.

That gives us 2 years to come up with an infield...

 

[element1286]

Seems a little conservative for Cole. Sounds about right for Taillon.

 

[sychmd]

a top notch HS pitcher will pitch about 85-120 innings, depending on how far his team goes in playoffs. then he will pitch another 100-120 innings in legion ball as 9 inning games. he will throw 100-140 pitches per game.

how in the world do they bring them into pro ball and shut them down to 4 innings in a start and 120 innings for the year. with so much babying, it is no wonder that 75% have significant arm trouble. even little leaguers can throw 6 easily and throw 80-100 pitches a game. granted no breaking stuff, but still. throwing builds arm strength, let them throw.

 

[stillmatic32]

I would like to see Cole mid 2013 or 2014 at the latest. I could be being optimistic, but I feel that's a realistic expectation. Taillon could could fit right into that plan.

Wouldn't it be awesome to have an ace blow through the minors and take over the #1 spot in the rotation?

 

[magnumo]

a top notch HS pitcher will pitch about 85-120 innings, depending on how far his team goes in playoffs. then he will pitch another 100-120 innings in legion ball as 9 inning games. he will throw 100-140 pitches per game.

how in the world do they bring them into pro ball and shut them down to 4 innings in a start and 120 innings for the year. with so much babying, it is no wonder that 75% have significant arm trouble. even little leaguers can throw 6 easily and throw 80-100 pitches a game. granted no breaking stuff, but still. throwing builds arm strength, let them throw.

Thanks much for that post. (Tried to "approve" it but got that "spread-it-around" message again.) I think you're spot on target.

Perhaps overwork "abuse" has caused some arm injuries in the past. But the reaction has gone overboard in the opposite direction. Like you, I believe the limitations currently being imposed upon pitchers prevent them from EVER building the arm strength they should have.

Unfortunately, no one seems to have developed a scientific way to study and prove this, one way or the other. Seems that the powers-that-be try to draw conclusions ONLY from statistics. Every pitcher is different. However, the "babying" is applied across-the-board because the investment in pitchers is so high.

 

[element1286]

a top notch HS pitcher will pitch about 85-120 innings, depending on how far his team goes in playoffs. then he will pitch another 100-120 innings in legion ball as 9 inning games. he will throw 100-140 pitches per game.

Are you sure about all of this?

 

[sychmd]

yes, that is what i did. i was all-state in NJ. we had shorter HS years than down the south that played games starting early march where we started games apr 1. then i pitched in college at duke.
there were even some coaches that really abused arms and pitched their aces more frequently and burned their arms out in HS. happened to a good friend at a neighboring school.
also, i was a catcher on my non pitching days, so my arm got daily work and stayed strong like any muscle.
the clincher - never had arm troubles. ever. sore after games(one game - 10 innings and 152 pitches) but always able to catch the next day effectively.
our legion team lost in the state final and we played 7-9 games per week, weather permitting till aug 20.

 

[element1286]

Did you gradaute high school recently, sychmd?

 

[sychmd]

no, played back before the pitch counts of little league, and HS. but when i got to college, we had a kid drafted in the 2nd round, chose college, had an awesome freshmen year - all south region as a fr. then they babied his arm the whole next fall (we played a 35 game fall "practice" schedule, babied him in the winter, then we started games last week of jan (think GA and FLA weather) he hurt his arm for the first time, missed the first half of the year. he then subconsciously altered his motion to protect his arm, and hurt his knee and hip. was never the same stuff. could throw 93 his fr year. played in hte braves system for a couple years after college, but never had it anymore. since pitchers cost so much, they over protect them.
the way to make them stronger is regular hard work, with occas breaks. that's what builds up the muscle. more importantly, that's what builds up the bones and connective tissue(ligaments and tendons). oitchers bone density in their pitching arm is a bout 60-75% greater than their non pitching arm. when it doesnt get that regular use over time, all these components are weaker and compromised more easily. simple biomechanics, which was my undergrad major(biomedical engineering).

 

[sychmd]

ok, another soapbox.
rarely does a pitchers mechanics hurt him. if he has been pitching for awhile, unless he is a significant junk pitcher, even the worst mechanics wont hurt him. his body will adjust and adapt or cause him to adapt. then collateral circuitry and mechanics will develop to allow his body to function and be strengthened, as long as he continues with regularity.
what poor mechanics really does is interfere with maximum velocity or movement of certain pitches.
so poor mechanics caused an efficiency issue, not an injury issue.
with that said, some poor mechanics will actually enhance a break on a pitch, or a sink on a sinker. that "inefficiency" is actually of value at times.

 

[element1286]

Ok, I was wondering, because the scenario you described as far as games played for a high school kid, isn't the norm these days, in my experience.

I'm not going to pretend to know as much about pitching as you do, because I don't. But I don't think anything about how pitchers get injured should be spoken of in absolutes.

 

[sychmd]

graduated HS in 1981, college in 85. HS today not much different than when i was at school. taillon was 8-1 his sr yr with one no decision. that's at least 10 starts. also played aau and usa u18 tournaments that are 9 innings. got to believe he was in hte 130-150 inning range.
go to Tom House (the pitcher that caught aarons 715) he is the modern innvator of washing out the babying of pitching by using science, physics, and biomechanics. also established National Pitching Association: Pitching Mechanics, Pitching Instruction and Camps if you are intersted. nolan ryan and others are part of the organization and studies. interesting stuff and very cutting edge.

 

[thecrow124]

NH going has been pretty consistent in increasing innings by 30 to 45 per year as long as the kid can handle it. That would mean Taillon could see as many as 135 innings this year and 180 next, this would possibly get him to Pittsburgh in 2013, but I would say more conservatively 2014. Cole should be up next year, but absolute latest would ne 2013, barring injury to either. I think the biggest thing with Cole isn't necessarily the innings, but more getting him used to every 5th day instead of every 7.

 

[Illinest]

Hear taillon went five innings, no earned runs, six strikeouts. Hes doing pretty well so far.

 

[Illinest]

More about Taillon:

18 and 1/3rd innings. WHIP of 0.804. 11.6 K/9, 1.4 BB/9

The only worry is that he seems to still be on a strict pitch limit. Less than 5 innings per start. Would love to see him get stretched out more.

All the same - he's got a good start and if he keeps performing like this then the Pirates would basically have to challenge him in AA before the season's out.
A successful stint in AA would open up the possibility that he could force his way to the majors late next year. That's the fastest progression we could possibly hope for in my opinion.


Curry is hitting again. He had a rough start in AA last year but now he's a .300+ hitter again. He's in the mix to be our next Matt Hague, who was our next Steve Pearce, who was our next....

 

[thecrow124]

More about Taillon:

18 and 1/3rd innings. WHIP of 0.804. 11.6 K/9, 1.4 BB/9

The only worry is that he seems to still be on a strict pitch limit. Less than 5 innings per start. Would love to see him get stretched out more.

All the same - he's got a good start and if he keeps performing like this then the Pirates would basically have to challenge him in AA before the season's out.
A successful stint in AA would open up the possibility that he could force his way to the majors late next year. That's the fastest progression we could possibly hope for in my opinion.


Curry is hitting again. He had a rough start in AA last year but now he's a .300+ hitter again. He's in the mix to be our next Matt Hague, who was our next Steve Pearce, who was our next....

Don't worry so much about his innings, they will take care of themself. If he gets five innings per start, that will get him to 130 by seasons end in 26 starts, which is right about where the Pirates would want him.

 

[Illinest]

Taillon is on a strict 6 inning limit apparently.

Last night he went 6 innings in only 43 pitches.
6 hits, 0 runs, 1 BB, 3 K

On the season:
1.47 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 0.873 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9
I think he's too good for high A.


Cole hasn't been as good:
3.54 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 1.071 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9
Still not bad. I think the numbers fit with scouting reports. Cole seems to have better stuff but Taillon is pitching better.

I don't think Cole needs to be here much longer either. He probably has good enough stuff to overpower hitters in the majors. I don't think A+ hitters are going to punish him enough for failing to command his pitches. So far you could still argue that his results have been pretty good. I'd like to see him in an environment where he'll get smacked around harder when his command is off. What if he's powering his way out of every jam? Is that good for his development?

 

[element1286]

I tend to agree that Taillon is too good for A+, but I would like to see him get some more ground ball outs, he seems to be an extreme fly ball pitcher at this point. I think he moves up by the end of June.

Interesting point about Cole, I think you're probably right he isn't getting challenged for missing in the zone, but I don't think he will truly get challenged until he gets to the majors anyway. So I'm not sure I would promote him on that basis alone. But anyway, the Pirates seem conservative, so I think he'll get to AA after 70-100 innings in A+.

 

[stillmatic32]

I would say Taillon is on track for June 2013 at the earliest.

Great to have a few real pitching prospects.