BoiseStateFan's 2017 College Football Predictions/Preview Thread

[BoiseStateFan27]

UAB Blazers

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Preview: This is definitely one of the most bizarre previews I've ever done. Usually there is no such thing as a team winning in preseason but here we are...UAB's football program has returned from the grave after a dumb attempt at killing it, and by making it back they have already won. Somehow head coach Bill Clark stayed with the program and perhaps was one of the biggest keys in reviving it, before the program killed itself he showed promise in his first season here going 6-6, one of the best years UAB had in a long time...but wow had they not killed the program 2015 could have been a very special year.

Usually I do the previous season with this section so let's use it to go over this would have been 2015 roster, it's impressive. Starting QB Cody Clements was a solid starter in his last year at South Alabama, the backup Jeremiah Briscoe won the Walter Payton award at Sam Houston State last year. RB Jordan Howard is the most well known, he was incredible at Indiana in 2015, and was the NFLs 2nd leading rusher as a rookie despite not having the starting job until a few weeks in. At receiver UAB had Jamari Staples who made a decent impact at Louisville, Josh Magee who was solid at South Alabama and Collin Lisa who was the top receiver at Buffalo and then transferred back to UAB once news arrived that the program was revived. TE Gerald Everette was fantastic for South Alabama and then became a 2nd round pick in the NFL draft this year. The offensive line had a few impact players for other teams, same for the defense especially at linebacker where Jake Ganus became Georgia's leading tackler in 2015, T.J McCollum was excellent at Western Kentucky and then followed Brohm to Purdue as a grad transfer for this year.

Both sides of the ball are wildly unpredictable as the majority of these players have never played in a real college football game. At QB UAB has a junior and two freshmen competing for the job, AJ Erdely is the Junior and he threw exactly one pass at Mid Tenn State in 2014, that's all the playing experience here, but these QBs have good size. The RBs seem to have a promising amount of talent, tough to tell yet if they plan on having one back carry most of the time or if they will use a committee. The only experience at receiver is the aforementioned Collin Lisa, it's all unproven options from there, but these other players have a promising combination of size and speed. The offensive line has one player who started 8 games for Northern Iowa, that's all for experience but again this is another unit with good size.

The defense is again unpredictable. The defensive line has a few transfers who took a few snaps at other schools, the most exciting is nose tackle Anthony Rush, he hasn't proven much of anything but he is 6'5 and a mammoth 335 pounds! There's also Bentley Easley who is 320 pounds, the defensive end spot is filled with mostly JUCOs. Linebacker has some promise, there are a lot of highly touted players here and perhaps biggest of all there's a proven playmaker on this unit. Shaq Jones was a member of the 2014 UAB team and had 12.5 TFL. The secondary also lacks experience but there are a lot of highly rated JUCOs and transfers.

If this team jells quicker than expected this schedule is quite manageable. They open with Alabama A&M and also play Ball State and Coastal Carolina. The only one that isn't winnable is Florida who naturally would jump at having a program that hasn't played in 2 years come to town for a late November game, at least it's good money for UAB. UAB draws Mid Tenn State and Charlotte from the East division, getting Charlotte is favorable as they might be the only truly bad team in that division this year. Overall though there's not a lot of playing experience here so this team is wildly unpredictable, I'm going to go on the side of this team struggling with a lack of experience but it's ok because UAB has already won.

Predictions:

Sep. 2 Alabama A&M: Alabama A&M is the perfect easy opponent to start out with they were bad at the FCS level last year and lost 55-0 to both Mid Tenn State and Auburn last year. W
Sep. 9 @ Ball State: A win is certainly possible but I'm not seeing it. L
Sep. 16 Coastal Carolina: Unproven team vs unproven team, I'm going with Coastal. L
Sep. 23 @ North Texas: L
Oct. 7 Louisiana Tech: L
Oct. 14 Mid Tenn State: L
Oct. 21 @ Charlotte: This is an opportunity for a win, but I'm going with Charlotte. L
Oct. 28 @ Southern Miss: SOUND THE UPSET SIRENS!! UAB has been very good against Southern Miss before killing their football program, if there's any game for this inexperienced talent to shine it's this one, I'm going with UAB in a stunner. W
Nov. 4 Rice: Momentum holds for another win. W
Nov. 11 @ UTSA: L
Nov. 18 @ Florida: L
Nov. 25 UTEP: Decent shot to win here but I'm going with UTEP. L

Predicted Record: 3-9(2-6)

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

UTEP Miners

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Preview: UTEP is a program that's had mostly bad periods with a few good ones. For a while in the early 2000s this was a program on the rise, they hovered around the top 25 and perhaps most amazing of all they actually were a candidate for the Big 12. Things quickly fell apart though, and even when the Big 12 had a massive list of candidates last year which eventually they narrowed down to zero, UTEP wasn't even on the initial list. Sean Kugler's tenure started with promise as in only his 2nd year he brought UTEP to a bowl. It's been a struggle since as they've won 9 combined games in the past two years. Is another good year anywhere on the horizon?

Last year had a promising start for UTEP as they were dominant in beating New Mexico State, it quickly fell apart though. It wasn't so surprising when they lost 41-7 to Texas the following week, but it sure was surprising when they lost 66-14 at home against Army. They then got crushed by Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech and FIU. Out of nowhere UTEP found life again and won a wild 52-49 game on the road against UTSA in FIVE OVERTIMES! How crazy is that? UTEP lost to Old Dominion which wasn't too surprising, blew out Houston Baptist, and showed some offensive life but were let down by the defense in losses to Florida Atlantic and Rice. The finale was another out of nowhere performance as they destroyed North Texas 52-24.

UTEP's offense was miserable most of the early season but late in the season played better when having RB Aaron Jones carry the ball as much as possible, and QB Ryan Metz took over the starting job and played well. The good news for this year is Metz returns, the bad news is Aaron Jones who was one of the best RBs in the conference last year is now gone. There are several potential replacements at RB, some haven't impressed in limited action, and all are very unproven it certainly is possible a good option could emerge from the bunch. WR Eddie Sinegal proved to be a solid option during his freshman year last year, but a good TE in Hayden Plinke is gone, and so is big play receiver Cole Freytag. The next leading returning receiver had 12 catches last year, and there is the potential for a lot of sophomores to start at receiver. Former Boise State tight end signee David Lucero could possibly step in to replace Plinke. The highlight of this offense is up front. This offensive line is big and could really make life easier for this offense, it includes one of the best Guards in the country in Will Hernandez.

UTEP had one of the worst defenses in the country last year. The defensive line struggled immensely last year, and this year's returnees only combined for 1.5 sacks, that is bad. There are a lot of unproven sophomores in the bunch who could step up. At linebacker Aaron Jones' brother Alvin Jones returns and he played well when healthy last year, another returnee Dante Lovilette was solid, and Jayson VanHook is a sophomore who looks promising as a potential starter this year as he had 5.5 TFL as a freshman last year. The secondary was probably the highlight of the defense last year and Devin Cockrell returns as the leader of this secondary so both of last year's starting corners.

The schedule is rough, there's a big leap in the non-conference schedule as UTEP gets Oklahoma instead of Texas, New Mexico State and Army on the road instead of at home, and worst of all they play Arizona instead of Houston Baptist. Want more bad news? UTEP has the worst draw from the East division as they get Mid Tenn State and Western Kentucky. UTEP could have a better team this year, and one that's really ready for another bowl run in 2018 but all these potential sophomores combined with this schedule dooms UTEP from the start. Hopefully for Kugler's sake it's not bowl or he's out this year, but he needs to at least show enough promise with competitive losses to be around for a potentially better 2018.

Predictions:

Sep 2 @ Oklahoma: Oddly enough the last time these two played, UTEP actually hosted Oklahoma in week 1. UTEP blocked a punt for a TD early, ran the ball well and threatened an upset for most of the game before Oklahoma wore them down and won 24-7...UTEP can only hope it goes that well this time around. L
Sep. 9 Rice: I think UTEP's offensive line will take this one over allowing them to win. W
Sep. 15 Arizona: UTEP is at least good at pulling random home games like this. Though a win would be more possible if they had Houston Baptist again. L
Sep. 23 @ New Mexico State: New Mexico State hasn't beaten UTEP since 2008. W
Sep. 30 @ Army: Hopefully UTEP loses by less than 50 points this time, they can't stop the run and Army runs a lot. L
Oct. 7 Western Kentucky: L
Oct. 14 @ Southern Miss: Another game where UTEP is overwhelmed by the run game. L
Oct. 28 UTSA: A little revenge this time around as UTSA wins. L
Nov. 4 @ Mid Tenn State: L
Nov. 11 @ North Texas: UTEP comes close but loses this one as well. L
Nov. 18 Louisiana Tech: L
Nov. 25 @ UAB: I do think UTEP manages to pull off another season ending victory. W

Predicted Record: 3-9(2-6)

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

UTSA Roadrunners

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Preview: UTSA is another school that decided to make the jump to FBS almost immediately after starting their football program. Larry Coker a name that everyone knows well was the head coach and immediately made this a competitive program, he ran out of energy after his first class and retired. UTSA didn't want to be boring though, they swung for the fences and hired Frank Wilson a well renowned recruiter. Many eyebrows were raised as it was a curious hire. He proved to be more than just a recruiter after an impressive 6 win campaign in his first year which led to the first ever bowl appearance for this young program. Now what happens in year 2?

Last year didn't start out great, UTSA opened by barely beating a bad Alabama State 26-13, they were mostly punchless in a 23-14 loss to Colorado State. It got better as they nearly stunned Arizona State at home but gave up a late score to lose 32-28. They were dominated by Old Dominion the following week. Then came a stunner, UTSA destroyed a seemingly good Southern Miss 55-32, and then beat Rice on the road. They went back down again as they dropped a 5 overtime dud at home against UTEP. UTSA rose again beating North Texas easily and destroying Mid Tenn State, albeit while their QB broke his collarbone in the 2nd quarter but UTSA was leading at that point. UTEP was destroyed 63-35 by Louisiana Tech before a competitive 23-10 loss to Texas A&M and then got themselves in a bowl with a win over Charlotte. They lost that bowl in a close one to New Mexico.

UTSA's offense was lifeless at times last year, but also had some good points. QB Dalton Sturm improved a little bit last year compared to 2015 and returns for his senior year, he needs to improve at taking less sacks and improving his completion percentage. Jarveon Williams last year's go-to RB is now gone but it's very possible that his backup Jalen Rhodes might be better, he showed a lot of promise last year. The top 4 receivers from last year are back, but none of them were all that consistent and there isn't a go-to guy, experience should mean improvement though, and perhaps some of Wilson's recruits could play a role. The offensive line could possibly have 5 seniors starting this year, the offensive line wasn't that good last year and experience could help, but there's also some JUCO's that could add to the competition.

UTSA had a very good defense for most of last year, and they dominated at times but there were times where this defense was leaky and gave up some big plays. 4 of UTSA's top 5 defensive linemen return, and this group is led by Marcus Davenport who is a great playmaker who had 10 TFL and 6.5 sacks. Almost every linebacker is back from last year, and this is a strong group. Josiah Tauaefa led the team in tackles last year as a freshman! He also tallied 9 TFL and 6 sacks, and there's the well named La'Kel Bass who had 11 TFL and 5 sacks last year. UTSA also returns a lot in the secondary including almost every single corner that played last year, but one problem is this secondary was leaky and the two starters that are gone are both safeties.

UTSA doesn't have the worst schedule, they take some hits early as opening the season with Houston and Baylor is tough, though upsetting one of the two isn't entirely out of the question. The rest of their non-conference schedule is easy with games against Southern and Texas State. They draw FIU and Marshall from the East division, not the worst draw. One more very interesting note about this schedule... UTSA doesn't leave the state of Texas until NOVEMBER! That is crazy! It should be fun to see what Wilson can do in his 2nd year, UTSA has an outside shot at winning the West division.

Predictions:

Sep. 2 Houston: It's possible that UTSA's defense could give Houston's offensive line fits in this one, in fact it probably will happen but UTSA also gives up too many big plays to Houston's receivers. L
Sep. 9 @ Baylor: It's hard to tell what Baylor will look like this year, they're kind of a mystery. I think they will beat UTSA though. L
Sep. 16 Southern: Southern is a bad FCS team should be an easy win. W
Sep. 23 @ Texas State: Texas State is in quite the rebuild, UTSA should roll. W
Oct. 7 Southern Miss: Having a bye week helps but UTSA finds a lot of success offensively again and takes down Southern Miss. W
Oct. 14 @ North Texas: UTSA struggles but survives to win this one. W
Oct. 21 Rice: W
Oct. 28 @ UTEP: W
Nov. 4 @ FIU: Upset here as FIU's experienced team has a good game to take down UTSA. L
Nov. 11 UAB: W
Nov. 18 Marshall: UTSA's defense avoids giving up the big plays in this game, and beats Marshall as a result. W
Nov. 25 @ Louisiana Tech: Hopes of a division title on the line, but Louisiana Tech proves to be too much for UTSA. L

Predicted Record: 8-4(6-2)

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

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Preview: Southern Miss appears to be getting back on track after several down years. They finally had a year like last year where they were disappointed with simply going back to a bowl. One thing is certain Jay Hopson will be looking for a lot more consistency from this year's group because last year Southern Miss was all over the place.

The season opener last year kind of helped set the tone, Southern Miss fell behind 35-10 against Kentucky, seemingly getting blown out like a typical Conference-USA team. Suddenly Southern Miss racked off 34 unanswered points to win 44-35. They easily dispatched Savannah State, and then suffered what at the time was a disappointing 6 point home loss to Troy, but Troy turned out to be really good. Southern Miss easily beat UTEP and Rice and definitely looked set for a potential conference title. Then came a sudden collapse as Southern Miss was blown out 55-32 by UTSA, it was followed by an expected blowout loss to LSU. Southern Miss did recover and beat Marshall but then they got worse. They dropped an absolute stinkbomb losing at home by 11 to Charlotte, then were blown out by Old Dominion and lost to North Texas. Suddenly with their bowl hopes on life support they naturally beat West division champ Louisiana Tech by 15 points, they easily won their bowl game over Louisiana - Lafayette though errors kept the score closer than the game really was.

Southern Miss had a wildly inconsistent offense. It did not help that QB Nick Mullens got hurt late in the year, they did lose to Old Dominion and North Texas in his absence. Mullens graduated so now it's up to a new QB. Keon Howard was one of the QBs that played during Mullens' injury, he mostly threw a lot of incompletions and took a lot of sacks but was a true freshman. Kwadra Griggs is a JUCO transfer who will compete for the job. There are some good talents on this offense, RB Ito Smith is one of the stars on this team, and George Payne is also solid. WR Allenzae Staggers was a Last Chance U alum, and he was an absolutely fantastic receiver last year, definitely one of the most underrated in the nation. Southern Miss does lose their 2nd leading receiver but every other receiver returns...this should be a strong unit. One more concern for the offense is only 2 of the 7 offensive linemen that were in the starting rotation return, there are a few JUCO's as well as upperclassmen who could fill spots.

Southern Miss was also very wild on defense. They were fantastic at forcing negative plays but they also gave up a lot of big gains at times too. The defensive line loses it's best Nose tackle and one of the better defensive ends, but they used a big rotation and basically everyone else who played returns, led by Xavier Thigpen who had 12.5 TFL and 5 sacks. Two of the 3 starting linebackers are gone, but the one returnee is Sherrod Ruff had 11 TFL and 3 sacks, he also forced 3 fumbles as an added bonus. Good news bad news situation in the secondary. The good news is every single corner and nickel-back on the roster returns, but the bad news is there is a ton of turnover at safety 3 significant contributors are gone.

The schedule doesn't change much from last year and is a little easier. LSU is replaced by Tennessee, Southern Miss gets Kentucky at home instead of on the road, they replace a home game against Troy with a much easier road game against UL-Monroe, they also trade in one crappy FCS team for another. Just like last year they draw Marshall and Charlotte from the East. Southern Miss could be all over the map again, if they find the right solutions they're a conference title contender, but they could just as easily scrape their way by just to make a bowl again.

Predictions:

Sep. 2 Kentucky: I'm going with Southern Miss for the upset, sure they have a lot of questions but they're just wild enough to pull something like this off. W
Sep. 9 Southern: W
Sep. 16 @ UL-Monroe: W
Sep. 30 North Texas: Southern Miss continues the strong start by easily winning this game. W
Oct. 7 @ UTSA: Once again the fun ends against the Roadrunners, the offense puts up a dud and the defense gives up too many big plays. L
Oct. 14 UTEP: Southern Miss recovers by using their ground game to control this one. W
Oct. 21 @ Louisiana Tech: Southern Miss does not repeat their random winning over Louisiana Tech, they lose to them this time around. L
Oct. 28 UAB: UPSET! Southern Miss is capable of duds, this game is between two big games, and last time UAB existed they were fantastic at randomly beating Southern Miss. L
Nov. 4 @ Tennessee: Sorry Southern Miss, I don't see this big of an upset happening. L
Nov. 11 @ Rice: Southern Miss turns it around again with a win. W
Nov. 18 Charlotte: Revenge for last year's random loss as Southern Miss dominates. W
Nov. 25 @ Marshall: Southern Miss gets taken down in this one as Marshall's speedy offense could cause issues. L

Predicted Record: 7-5(4-4)

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

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Preview: Western Kentucky rise has been pretty amazing when you really think about it. This is now their 10th year as a FBS team, and for several years they were one of the worst programs at the FBS level. Willie Taggert first found success at this program, after a few rebuilding years he got them to a bowl game, then left. Western Kentucky brought Bobby Petrino in for a year and he was solid and moved on, so then came Jeff Brohm who took over as soon as Western Kentucky jumped up to Conference USA, immediately had Western Kentucky in the middle of the pack and then in his last two years there he absolutely took over the conference. Now Brohm is off to Purdue and Mike Sanford is next in line. Sanford has a variety of different influences and he has proven to be a very good playcaller, now we see how he is as the head coach.

Last year Western Kentucky opened with a 46-14 blowout of Rice, impressive at the time, but it was in the bottom half of their scoring outputs last year. Then they played Alabama, as expected they lost but they hung around through parts of the 2nd quarter until throwing a pick 6, they made a lot of offensive mistakes in that game and lost 38-10 but they stifled Alabama's running attack better than most teams, and for all the teams Alabama played that were good Western Kentucky did a decent job against them. Western Kentucky still struggled after, barely beating Miami Ohio when they were playing bad, and then losing in overtime to Vanderbilt in a game Western Kentucky should have won but once again made too many mistakes. They used a game against Houston Baptist to sort of clean things up, they lost a wild 55-52 shootout against Louisiana Tech and barely survived Mid Tenn State. Then they became unstoppable, destroying Old Dominion 59-24, and even worse blowout wins over FAU, FIU, North Texas and Marshall. Western Kentucky got revenge on Louisiana Tech winning 58-44 and then blew out a good Memphis team 51-31 in their bowl game with an interim coach.

Western Kentucky's offense was fantastic last year, their lowest scoring output after the first month of the year was 44 points. The QB behind that offense was Mike White and he does return. White made a few mistakes and struggled a little in the early game of the year (of course one of them was Alabama), but then he was incredible. Western Kentucky had a fantastic RB in Anthony Wales who is now gone but Leon Allen who was great in 2014 before dealing with awful injuries the past two years might be back, there's also some backups who have been solid in those roles the past two years. Western Kentucky loses 5 of their top 7 catchers from last year's passing game including 3rd round pick Taywan Taylor, but the cupboard isn't bare by any means. Receivers Nacarius Fant and Lucky Jackson both have proven to be really good and there's several talented unproven options as well. The offensive line is a concern as 3 all-conference players including late first round pick Forrest Lamp are now gone.

Western Kentucky wasn't all offense though, they had a great defense. I mentioned earlier how they even held the Alabama running game in check, and at the end of the year Western Kentucky had the nation's 2nd best run defense. The defensive line was a strength and had lots of depth, roughly half the players that contributed are gone, still this line will be good and it's led by defensive tackle Chris Johnson who had 12.5 TFL and 4 sacks last year, there's also defensive end Derik Overstreet who had 8.5 TFL and 4 sacks as well as a pick oddly enough. Some good linebackers are gone as Keith Brown graduated and T.J McCollum followed Brohm to Purdue as a grad transfer, but like the defensive line there was plenty of depth here and Joel Iyieguniwe(don't ask me how to pronounce that) had 10 TFL and 3.5 sacks last year and he returns. The secondary loses a good safety in Branden Leston, but that's it everyone else is back. The corners Joe Brown, Leverick Johnson and De'Andre Simmons are a very strong trio.

The schedule sets Western Kentucky up for success, they find enough good solutions they really could go undefeated. The non-conference includes a game against Eastern Kentucky, and they get Ball State, they get Illinois and Vanderbilt on the road but neither of those are unbeatable. They draw Louisiana Tech again from the west, but they also get the benefit of playing UTEP. Overall there's a lot of change, a new coach, several good players gone. This team might not be good enough this year to take down power 5 opponents but they're still the favorite to win Conference-USA.

Predictions:

Sep. 2 Eastern Kentucky: Eastern Kentucky was bad last year going 3-8 and being blown out by Purdue and Ball State, Western Kentucky should handle them. W
Sep. 9 @ Illinois: Illinois isn't great by any means but I do think they will make slight improvements and winning this game is part of that. L
Sep. 16 Louisiana Tech: This game is fun, the annual shootout where both teams either surpass or get near 50 points continues, and Western Kentucky wins this meeting. W
Sep. 23 Ball State: Western Kentucky should roll in this game. W
Oct. 7 @ UTEP: W
Oct. 14 Charlotte: W
Oct. 20 @ Old Dominion: This proves to be a tricky game but Western Kentucky holds off Old Dominion for the win. W
Oct. 28 Florida Atlantic: Upset! Suddenly Western Kentucky's division hopes are in jeopardy as they get upset in a shootout by Lane Kiffin's owls. L
Nov. 4 @ Vanderbilt: Western Kentucky continues to fall as they lose a close one to Vanderbilt. L
Nov. 11 @ Marshall: The struggles continue but Western Kentucky hasn't lost to Marshall as a FBS team, and that streak continues as the Hilltoppers survive. W
Nov. 17 Mid Tenn State: Mid Tenn State enters this one unbeaten in conference play needing a win to clinch the division, but Western Kentucky decides they won't get it that easy as Western Kentucky takes them down. W
Nov. 25 @ FIU: An upset here would give Mid Tenn State the division, sorry Mid Tenn State, Western Kentucky takes this one. W

Predicted Record: 9-3(7-1)

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Conference-USA

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East:

1. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 9-3(7-1)
2. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders 9-3(7-1)
3. Marshall Thundering Herd 7-5(5-3)
4. Florida Atlantic Owls 6-6(4-4) - win tiebreaker by virtue of best record against division teams
5. Florida International Panthers 5-7(4-4) - head to head over ODU
6. Old Dominion Monarchs 6-6(4-4)
7. Charlotte 49ers 2-10(1-7)

West:

1. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 8-4(7-1)
2. Texas - San Antonio Roadrunners 8-4(6-2)
3. Southern Miss Golden Eagles 7-5(4-4)
4. North Texas Mean Green 3-9(2-6) - beat UAB & UTEP head to head
5. Texas - El Paso Miners 3-9(2-6) - beat UAB head to head
6. UAB Blazers 3-9(2-6)
7. Rice Owls 1-11(1-7)

Conference Championship: Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech - despite a lot of turnover this year these two meet once again for the conference title, the pack is closing in but for this year these two are still the tops in this conference. Who will win? I'll have a conference championship section at the end of my previews, you will find out then!

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Cincinnati Bearcats

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Preview: You probably weren't expecting me to do the American next were you? I said I was going in whatever order I felt like. Cincinnati was for a while a very good program, at their greatest they were actually a power conference team, but do to all the realignment craziness Cincinnati found themselves on the outside. For a while they were still a strong program, but suddenly the last two years under Tuberville they have plummeted. Now they have gone back to the up and comer route by bringing in Luke Fickell as their next head coach, he has very strong ties within the state and seems like a surefire coach to eventually get this program back on the right track. Will it start with this season?

Last year was one of Cincinnati's worst in a while. They didn't open it too well as they struggled with Tennessee-Martin before pulling away, it looked like they could be ok as they crushed Purdue on the road the following week. They still looked good as they kept Houston on their toes for about 3 and a half quarters before Houston got a comfortable margin and then UC collapsed by throwing 2 consecutive pick 6s. They survived a game against Miami-Ohio by 7 but then were blown out by South Florida. Cincinnati started to decline as they lost 20-9 to a bad UConn team, Cincinnati did at least beat East Carolina, before losing out. The games against Temple, BYU, UCF, and Memphis were all blowout losses. At least in the season finale UC got the opportunity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory to lose in overtime at Tulsa.

The offense became a disaster zone for Cincinnati last year, it was bad. QB Hayden Moore who was excellent at times when he played in 2015 struggled last year, he was the QB in the Houston game that threw back to back pick 6s. That is nothing new for him as he has a tendency to compound his picks. Ross Trail was another QB who played some, he had a good completion percentage but that is because he was a checkdown machine, and despite that still threw picks at an alarming rate. Fickell almost brought a gift with him in QB Torrence Gibson who was a star recruit at Ohio State only to be moved to receiver there due to the crowded QB room, he could have came in and given this offense life but it appears at this point that he won't be eligible this year. The run game was awful, no matter what Cincinnati went nowhere on run plays. RB Mike Boone is back but it's tough to know what to expect, in 2015 and earlier in his career he looked promising but last year he was awful. If he still struggles he could be pushed by some freshmen for the job. Cincinnati has some decent receivers though, Devin Gray and Kahlil Lewis are both good starting receivers and there's a few other returning receivers who contributed last year and could expand on that this year. Cincinnati loses a lot of primary starters on the offensive line but still returns 4 players who started games last year.

Cincinnati had a pretty solid defense last year, especially when you consider how the offense did them no favors, and they could be strong here again. 8 of the top 10 contributors on the defensive line return lead by Kevin Mouhon who had 9.5 TFL last year. Cincinnati will have some questions at linebacker where all 3 starters including the well named Mike Tyson are gone. A solid player from 2015 in Bryce Jenkinson will be back after missing almost all of last year, and there are a lot of talented freshmen and redshirt freshmen who could play. Cincinnati's secondary often bailed opposing offenses out and allowed them to complete too many passes, but there's a lot of experience back that could help. One of their safeties departs but everyone else is back. Overall the good thing about this secondary is that it did intercept a lot of passes, 17 of them to be exact.

The schedule is pretty tough, the non-conference has an easy game against Austin Peay to open the year, and winnable games against Miami (OH) and Marshall, but a difficult game on the road against Michigan. Cincinnati gets the benefit of drawing Tulane from the West, but an improved SMU and steady Navy will be tough. Overall this is a tough one for me, I feel like this will be a reset year where Fickell starts to get his pieces into place, but there is some talent on this team and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if they had a solid year.

Predictions:

Sep. 2 Austin Peay: Cincinnati couldn't have picked an easier opponent, Austin Peay went 0-11 last year and only once did their defense give up less than 40 points...they gave up 67 to Eastern Kentucky!!! But...they did lead Kentucky 7-0 after the first quarter to end last season. W
Sep. 9 @ Michigan: Fickell has a lot of experience beating Michigan as an assistant but.. as a head coach he's 0-1 against them and that was Ohio State's only loss to Michigan since 2003...As for this meeting not much to be said. L
Sep. 16 @ Miami (Ohio): Mentioning rivalries that have been uneven post 2003, Miami Ohio has only beaten UC once since then in 2005, so 2003 was their 2nd to last win over UC... Ben Roethlisberger was their QB then...I'm going with Miami! L
Sep. 23 @ Navy: I don't see Cincinnati winning this one. L
Sep. 30 Marshall: Cincinnati wins this game in a close one. W
Oct. 7 UCF: This will be a close low scoring game, I actually trust UCF's offense just a little more. L
Oct. 21 SMU: The bye week will help Cincinnati prepare and keep this one close, but SMU's offense proves to be too much late. L
Oct. 28 @ South Florida: L
Nov. 4 @ Tulane: This is a toss up and I went back and forth on because Tulane should at least be a little better. I'm going with Cincinnati. W
Nov. 10 Temple: Temple will be a little worse this year but Cincinnati will still have issues moving the ball against them. L
Nov. 18 @ East Carolina: East Carolina should actually be back to being decent this year, and their offense will allow them to beat Cincinnati. L
Nov. 25 Connecticut: There's not many football things UConn is good at right now, should be an easy win. W

Predicted Record: 4-8(2-6)

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Connecticut Huskies

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Preview: When doing this preview last year Bob Diaco was a coach on the rise fresh after bringing UConn to a rather surprising bowl appearance. Now here we are a year later, Diaco was fired and suddenly we went back in time as Randy Edsall is now the head coach at Connecticut. So far Edsall has had more success than anyone at UConn so might as well give it another go around. But, there's a reason Diaco got fired, this team is a mess and fixing it will take a while.

Last year actually didn't start off so bad and it was pretty wild actually. UConn opened the year going back and forth with the Maine Black Bears, late in the 4th quarter it was tied and Maine drove into UConn territory, but UConn blocked their potential game winning field goal and with 11 seconds left UConn kicked a field goal of their own and made it to survive. The next week UConn fell behind 21-0 against Navy before rallying to take a 24-21 lead, Navy then scored late to take the lead and UConn drove down to Navy's one yard line with 17 seconds left, UConn called their last timeout despite being out of bounds and the clock already being stopped..to top it off UConn then ran the ball got stuffed and failed to get another play off to lose. Then the next week against Virginia UConn kicked a field goal to take a 13-10 lead with under 2 minutes left before Virginia drove down the field and had a chance to tie it with a 20 yard field goal and the kicker amazingly missed it and UConn survived. UConn once again was in a close game losing by 7 to Syracuse the following week... how exhausting. The run of close games ended with a blowout loss to Houston and 20-9 win over Cincinnati. UConn was easily beaten by South Florida and lost by 8 to UCF... then the bottom fell out. Uconn lost 41-3 to an awful East Carolina team, was shutout in back to back weeks against Temple and Boston College and then UConn ended the year with a 38-13 home loss to Tulane.

Connecticut has overall traditionally had a bad offense for the past several years, basically their offense has been bad since Edsall left. Edsall is hoping to change that with UConn moving to a more up-tempo pace and former Auburn offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee running the offense. There's not much to work with here though. QB Bryant Shirreffs has started the past few years and has struggled mostly, he got even worse last year when he played hurt. True freshman at the time Donavan Williams burned his redshirt later in the year and took over the last few games as the starter, he also was bad. RB Arkeel Newsome is one highlight for this offense as he is a long time starter and a decent back considering what he had around him. UConn almost had some additional help with a grad transfer in David Williams who was a talented recruit who was originally at South Carolina but he decommitted and went to Arkansas. There's some starting receivers back but they weren't all that great last year. The offensive line was bad last year but at least 5 linemen with starting experience are back.

Another reason UConn was bad last year was the defense was a disappointment. They were decent at times but nowhere near as good as they usually have been. They had an ok run defense but the pass defense was just awful. The defensive line at least could be good news, most everyone is back and the leader here is Luke Carrezola who had 11 TFL and 3 sacks last year. There's a lot of experience back at linebacker though E.J Levenberry had an ACL injury and won't be back until October at the earliest. Biggest issue for this defense is the secondary, it was bad last year and that was with a second round pick in Obi Melifonwu starting at safety, he is gone and so are two other key starters. Jamar Summers is the top returnee and he's a corner who struggled last year but has been better in the past.

UConn has a pretty tough schedule for the situation, at least for power 5 schools they play Boston College, Virginia and Missouri who all are beatable, UConn also gets Holy Cross. The draw from the West is always tough but UConn doesn't even get Tulane, instead they play SMU, Tulsa and Memphis. Overall this is looking like a reset year. For this year a faster offense will likely only mean faster 3 and outs and the defense will struggle from being on the field a lot.

Predictions:

Aug 31 Holy Cross: Holy Cross was a bad FCS team and went 4-7, I think UConn can at least beat them. W
Sep. 9 South Florida: Hard to see the secondary holding up against the Bulls. L
Sep. 16 @ Virginia: This is an opportunity to win, but I think Virginia will be improved this year. L
Sep. 30 @ SMU: Good luck finding someone to match up with Sutton. L
Oct. 6 Memphis: L
Oct. 14 @ Temple: At least UConn might not get shutout this time. L
Oct. 21 Tulsa: L
Oct. 28 Missouri: Last time these two played it was an ugly yet somehow entertaining 9-3 game, UConn is still just as bad on offense, but Missouri's offense is definitely a lot better now. L
Nov. 4 East Carolina: UConn won't handle the passing game in this game either. L
Nov. 11 @ UCF: L
Nov. 18 Boston College (Fenway Park): If only Diaco was still here, we could have had a baseball score in a baseball park. L
Nov. 25 @ Cincinnati: L

Predicted Record: 1-11 (0-8)

 

[AlaskaGuy]

Boise State Football Game-by-Game Predictions for 2017

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Boise State Football Game-by-Game Predictions for 2017

Have none of those so called "experts" watched us play Air Force?? We never beat them

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

East Carolina Pirates

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Preview: East Carolina has perhaps been the best football program in the state of North Carolina in the past decade despite not having an ACC affiliation like all the other North Carolina schools. At least this was until recently. Ruffin McNeil was especially good at winning against in-state opponents, he started a run of beating the ACC schools from within the state and now East Carolina hasn't lost to a North Carolina ACC team since 2012. Unfortunately East Carolina has had some struggles lately, an injury filled 2015 got Ruffin McNeil fired and then Scottie Montgomery took over as the head coach...in his first year the result was much of the same, a lot of injuries, no bowl but they did beat NC State.

Last Year actually didn't start out so bad for East Carolina, they blew out Western Carolina in the opener then beat NC State in a fun back and forth 33-30 game. East Carolina then lost 20-15 to South Carolina in a game where they failed to score FOUR TIMES in the redzone, made too many mistakes, and gave up a kickoff return touchdown, it wasted an amazing effort by WR Zay Jones who caught 22 passes in the game. East Carolina was an absolute disaster in every phase of the game the following week in a blowout loss to Virginia Tech. The slide continued as they lost to UCF, before they played a little better in a loss to South Florida. East Carolina then lost to a bad Cincinnati team but then blew out UConn 41-3 and possibly looked set to right the ship (get it because they're Pirates? Oh ok I'll stop.) They didn't, East Carolina collapsed down the stretch losing 45-24 to Tulsa, 55-31 to SMU, 66-31 to Navy and 37-10 to Temple. Obviously an awful year but some of the efforts earlier in the year hinted that they might not have been as bad as their record.

The offense was mostly solid early in the year but collapsed later on, overall it wasn't as good as a normal East Carolina offense. QB Phillip Nelson played well at times but other times he took way too many sacks by holding on to the ball too long and was responsible for way too many turnovers. Later in the year a sophomore at the time Gardner Minshew took over, Minshew played pretty well and East Carolina definitely was able to hit a lot more big plays with him at QB. He doesn't have the job yet as East Carolina brough in Thomas Sirk as a grad transfer from Duke, Sirk was good in a little over a year as starter for Duke, but had a bad Achilles injury early last year and missed the rest of the year, if he does recover he brings a QB run threat that Minshew can't. RB has a lot of options there's two transfers in Tennesee transfer Derrell Scott, and Clemson transfer Tyshon Dye who surprisingly chose ECU over Miami (fl). Receiver will look a little different as the aforementioned Zay Jones who broke the NCAA season and career receptions record is now in the NFL after being a 2nd round pick. They still have some good weapons Davon Grayson is a solid option, Trevon Brown was a good starter in 2015 because missing all of last year, and Jimmy Williams is a fantastic deep threat receiver, Deondre Farrier could be a breakout player as he had 5 catches of more than 20 yards in very limited time as a freshman last year. The offensive line had 7 players start games last year and 4 of those are back.

The defense became a disaster last year and injuries played a big part in that, 26 different players took a significant amount of snaps last year and only 8 of them played in a all 12 games. The defensive line was a liability last year, but this was one of the harder hit areas by injuries. There's a lot of players with experience returning, transfers Gaelin Elmore (Minnesota grad) and Tyree Owens (JUCO) could help immediately. Several linebackers played due to injury and there's a lot of turnover in this position as several of those contributors are gone. The secondary also hit hard by injuries, shuffled in a new lineup each week and got burned constantly. Auburn transfer Tim Irvin should be able to help immediately, there's a lot of JUCOs brought in as well to try to help this disaster area.

The schedule is awfully brutal. East Carolina's entire non-conference schedule is tough, they played Virginia Tech as usual, and also have to play West Virginia and BYU...even the FCS team is hard because they're playing last year's FCS champs in James Madison. In conference play they at least draw Tulane from the west but also have to deal with Houston and Memphis on the road. Overall there's some things to like about this team. The offense should be fun, but the defense and tough schedule could be what keeps ECU from a bowl for the 3rd consecutive year, they will probably still be a pest and pull off an upset or two.

Predictions:

Sep. 2 James Madison: James Madison was a very good team last year, best in FCS late, and actually several reasons for that return, East Carolina won't be able to stop their offense and loses. L
Sep. 9 @ West Virginia: West Virginia's pass offense will prove to be too much in this game also. L
Sep. 16 Virginia Tech: After East Carolina had beaten Virginia Tech two consecutive years, Virginia Tech got back at them in a big way last year, I suspect more of the same again. L
Sep. 30 South Florida: Luckily for East Carolina they get a bye week to recover and South Florida's defense is also bad, South Florida coming off a big division game the week before drops an egg here. ECU for the upset. W
Oct. 7 Temple: Upset! East Carolina keeps the momentum going and takes down another top division team. W
Oct. 14 @ UCF: The momentum ends as East Carolina loses this one. L
Oct. 21 BYU: L
Oct. 28 @ Houston: L
Nov. 4 @ Connecticut: For the first time all year East Carolina gets an easy opponent and they take advantage. W
Nov. 11 Tulane: This does become a nice stretch though Tulane is a little more tricky. W
Nov. 18 Cincinnati: Cincinnati won't be too easy, both teams in a similar situation, ECU edges them out. W
Nov. 25 @ Memphis: East Carolina's bad defense comes to haunt them again as they can't stop Memphis in this one. L

Predicted Record: 5-7(5-3)

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Houston Cougars

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Preview: It's amazing what Tom Herman did with this program, in just two years he took it from a mid level school to a program that was perhaps "too good" for a Big 12 invite (as Big 12 coaches feared having more strong competition for Texas recruits.) Now Herman is in the Big 12, but with Texas. Now Major Applewhite has a tough task at hand, being the guy that follows THE guy. Applewhite will certainly have a lot to work with as this Houston was really good for the past two years for a reason, but expectations are high.

Last year was actually a bit of a disappointment for Houston, but it sure had a great start. Houston opened the year with a rousing win over Oklahoma, it was an impressive performance that immediately had Houston on the college football playoff radar. They easily beat Lamar but their first sign of troubles came as they struggled with Cincinnati before pulling away late, Houston easily beat Texas State and UConn to start 5-0. Then it all came crashing down as they lost 46-40 to Navy, ironically during a hurricane, Houston made too many mistakes on offense and Navy's option was unstoppable that day. Houston dramatically survived Tulsa the following week it was tied at 31 when Houston recovered a fumble and returned it for a TD to take the lead, then Tulsa drove down the field and on the last play they were stopped just an inch short of the goal line. Houston fell apart though, against SMU they fell behind 21-0 right away and could never recover in the blowout loss. The following week looked like more of the same as they fell behind 24-3 against UCF before making a dramatic comeback to win 31-24. Houston dispatched Tulane and entered a big game against Lamar Jackson and Louisville. To everyone's surprise Houston dominated them and easily won 36-10. Houston struggled the following week as their comeback fell short in a 48-44 loss to Memphis, then after Herman left they took a disappointing 34-10 loss to San Diego State in their bowl game.

The offense was a big disappointment for Houston last year. QB Greg Ward Jr was forced to do way too much to keep his team in the game, often having to take off an run, scrambling in order to complete passes and during points in the year he was laboring through injuries. He was Houston's offense and now he graduated. His replacement will most likely be Kyle Allen who transferred from Texas A&M, Allen had a few decent performances but also struggled a lot, he was a highly rated recruit coming into college so now we'll see if he can live up to it. Bad news is he's not as mobile as Ward was. The problem with the offense last year? The offensive line. It was awful, it opened no holes in the running game and Ward Jr was constantly under pressure as the line couldn't block. Injuries really didn't help, 9 different offensive linemen started in at least 4 games, only one lineman managed to start the entire year. The RBs didn't stand much of a chance, all of them struggled to go anywhere on runs, Duke Catalon was the primary back, it seemed like he had the ability to run well if he ever had space, also Colorado transfer Patrick Carr was very good in the spring game. The receivers for this offense are exciting, Linell Bonner was one of the best, most reliable possession receivers in the country, he wasn't a big play threat but if you threw him the ball he would most likely catch it. Steve Dunbar was also really good, he was key in the Oklahoma win as he had over 100 yards receiving in that game. This offense basically was as good as an offense with no offensive line could be, improving there is important this year.

The defense was stellar at times, and it starts up front. By up front I mostly mean Ed Oliver who perhaps might be the best player in all of college football. He was a 5 star freshman entering last year and he easily surpassed those expectations. Oliver has perhaps one of the best sideline to sideline motors anyone's ever seen as a defensive tackle, I mean he had 56.5 tackles from that spot, 22.5 of those were for a loss... 22.5 TFL AS A FRESHMAN! Unreal. He by the way missed the Memphis game. He's not alone up front either, Nick Thurman was solid last year and another star freshman in Bryan Jones joins the fold at defensive end. There's some losses at linebacker and Tyrus Bowser and Steven Taylor are both gone and combined for 17 sacks last year. Matthew Adams returns and he was Houston's leading tackler despite missing 2 games. Houston's secondary should be a strength, they lose corners Howard Wilson and Brandon Wilson but there's still a lot returning. The safeties Khalil Williams and Terrell Williams are a great duo, and young corner Jeremy Winchester looks set to be a star corner this year.

The schedule is pretty tough but obviously these past two years Houston proved they can beat anyone. The non-conference schedule features a road game against Arizona, and a home game against Texas Tech, Houston also gets a tricky road game against UTSA and an easier game against Rice. Houston gets a headliner opponent from the East division as they face off against South Florida, they also draw East Carolina and get a tough road game against Temple. Overall just because Herman's gone doesn't mean Houston is going away, they're just a few answers away from winning the American and making another New Year's 6 bowl.

Predictions:

Sep. 2 @ UTSA: This will prove to be a challenging low scoring game but in the end Houston's offense will make enough plays to win. W
Sep. 9 @ Arizona: Arizona had some struggles last year but I do think a small rebound is finally in store for them, they prove it by taking down Houston in a close game.
Sep. 16 Rice: Easy win. W
Sep. 23 Texas Tech: It doesn't matter how bad Houston's offensive line is, their offense will look great because they'll be able to run the ball against Tech's defense anyways. W
Sep. 30 @ Temple: Now here's a game where offensive line issues take it's toll, Houston struggles offensively in a loss. L
Oct. 7 SMU: Houston gets revenge by winning a close game over SMU. W
Oct. 14 @ Tulsa: Tulsa was so close to upsetting Houston last year, this year Tulsa gets their revenge and completes the upset. L
Oct. 19 Memphis: Houston is not ready to lose the division just yet, despite the short week Houston has a fantastic game and takes down Memphis to stay in the conference title race. W
Oct. 28 East Carolina: Houston easily wins this game. W
Nov. 4 @ South Florida: South Florida comes into this game looking like the top team in the conference despite an early upset loss, Houston though goes on the road and takes down South Florida in a surprising upset to prove that Houston still is an elite team in the conference. W
Nov. 18 @ Tulane: W
Nov. 24 Navy: Houston gets revenge for last year's loss to Navy as they have a great day offensively and their defense plays much better than last year. W

Predicted Record: 9-3(6-2)

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Memphis Tigers

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Preview: Memphis was for a long time one of the most underachieving programs in college football. They had a good basketball program, but when it came to football almost everyone just sat and laughed. Several years ago when Justin Fuente took the job, he spoke of that potential and no one listened until 2014 when Memphis nearly upset UCLA and stormed to an out of nowhere 10 win season that included a bowl win over BYU (and a brawl), 2015 was incredible, Memphis got off to a very great start then served notice when they dominated an Ole Miss team that beat Alabama just weeks prior and was one crazy play from winning the SEC West, it all added up to an 8-0 start for Memphis, they rose up to 13th in the college football playoff rankings and had an outside shot at making it. They collapsed later that year, but everyone knew of them. Fuente left for Virginia Tech and Memphis took another swing hiring Mike Norvell, so far it's looking like a good move.

Memphis started out the year strong, they easily beat their FCS opponent, then beat a slightly less bad than usual Kansas team 43-7 and beat Bowling Green by a crazy 77-3 score. Memphis disappointed though against Ole Miss, making far too many mistakes and losing by 20. Memphis did recover to beat a very good Temple team as well as Tulane. Then Memphis struggled, as they couldn't find any defensive options to stop Navy in a 42-28 loss, then laid a home dud in a 59-30 blowout loss to Tulsa. They did at least recover again beating SMU 51-7 on the road, and then had a good performance in a 49-42 loss to South Florida. They did gain some momentum, dominating Cincinnati then upsetting Houston a week after they had beaten Louisville. Memphis disappointed in their bowl game as they were blown out 51-31 by Western Kentucky.

Memphis had a very good offense last year, never once scoring less than 24 points in a game, they were pretty much capable of everything. QB Riley Ferguson was strong in the first 3 games, but struggled badly during the middle of the year before really playing great late, as a bonus Memphis has him for another year. The 4 main running backs all return, the primary back is Doroland Dorceus (what a name) and he was fantastic averaging over 6 yards per carry, behind him were 3 freshmen (now sophomores) who split time spelling Dorceus and all of them were very good at it. Memphis all returns their top 3 receivers from last year including Anthony Miller, who is one of the best receivers in the nation, and probably the best receiver you've never heard of. Phil Mayhue and Tony Pollard are also very good receivers. Almost everyone from the offensive line returns also.

Memphis had a weakness though, and that weakness was definitely their defense. Memphis' defense was pretty much awful last year. They especially were bad at stopping the run. They might get better at it this year because most of the defensive line is back. There's also a lot of experience back at linebacker led by Genard Avery who had 11 TFL and 5 sacks. There is one starter gone though but Memphis gets back Jackson Dillon who missed all of last year but had 6 TFL in 2015. The secondary though is the big concern this year as it's possible that any progress made up front could be ruined by all the turnover in the secondary. Almost everyone is gone from last year. It will be up to some former backs and young talented recruits to take up the starting positions.

The schedule really isn't as tough compared to what other teams in the conference are against. Memphis gets UL-Monroe, Georgia State and Southern Illinois as easy OOC games and they get one headliner game as they host UCLA an opponent who is definitely not unbeatable. Memphis gets a solid draw from the East division, they have to deal with UCF on the road which could be tricky but Memphis also gets easier games against UConn and East Carolina. Overall despite the defensive questions this offense gives them a fighting chance in any game, Memphis has a great shot at winning the American, maybe even going undefeated.

Predictions:

Aug. 31 UL-Monroe: Memphis easily beats UL-Monroe to open the year. W
Sep. 9 @ UCF: This proves to be a tough early test, but UCF's offense ends up not being good enough to take advantage of the Memphis defense, Memphis has one of their worst offensive performances of the year but it's still enough to win. W
Sep. 16 UCLA: This turns out to be a good one, both passing games are on fire for this game, and it goes back and forth similar to their first meeting in 2014, only this time Memphis pulls off the upset. W
Sep. 23 Southern Illinois: W
Sep. 30 @ Georgia State: W
Oct. 6 @ Connecticut: Another easy win. W
Oct. 14 Navy: This game proves to be a tough one for Memphis, but their run defense is a little better and that allows them to make a few stops and win this game. W
Oct. 19 @ Houston: The run comes to an end, a short week following a tough physical game against Navy already puts Memphis at a disadvantage, Houston also starts catching fire and beats Memphis. L
Oct. 27 Tulane: Memphis should win this game even if Tulane's defense is tough. W
Nov. 3 @ Tulsa: Last several years Memphis has struggled a bit with Tulsa, their defense will probably have a hard time against that offense again, but Memphis has enough offensive success to pull off the win. W
Nov. 18 SMU: SMU will be better, but they have been absolutely embarrassed by Memphis these past few years, it might be closer but Memphis wins. W
Nov. 25 East Carolina: Memphis wins a shootout. W

Predicted Record: 11-1(7-1)

​

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Navy Midshipmen

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Preview: Navy's football program has been about as consistent as it gets under Ken Niumatalolo, they're consistently good enough to make a bowl, and typically beat their rival Army, they have also taken down some major programs under Niumatalolo's watch. Even when Navy moved to the American from Independence they have maintained a high level of play. Last year Niumatalolo had a lot of good players to replace, and for most of the year Navy lived up to the challenge.

Last year started out in an interesting way, Navy lost their starting QB in the opener against Fordham and in fact the injuries got so bad they pulled a freshman out of the brigade to finish off the game, it was any easy win by the way. Navy would go on to win some close games against UConn and Tulane, then they lost on the road to Air Force. All of a sudden all it took was a hurricane and Navy started playing some fantastic football, they did it on the big stage as they ran their offense to near perfection in an upset win over Houston. Navy's offense had another great day in a 42-28 win over Memphis. Unfortunately the great run came to an end as their defense let them down and they dug themselves a hole on offense in a 45-52 loss to South Florida. Navy did recover, as they possessed the ball for most of the game in a win over Notre Dame, then Navy won a wild 42-40 shootout over Tulsa. The scores got even wilder as they beat East Carolina 66-31 and finished the regular season with a ridiculous 75-31 road win over SMU. I mean that was an absurdly efficient game as Navy had more points than plays ran, and nearly 500 rushing yards. Navy was in contention for a New Years 6 bowl, but QB injuries hit once again in a disaster conference championship loss to Temple, and those resulted in struggles as Navy lost to Army for the first time in almost a decade. The season ended with a shootout loss to Louisiana Tech in their bowl game.

The offense was very impressive last year, Navy lost one of their best QBs in a long time, lost their expected starter in week one and somehow they still improved. QB Will Worth was better than expected and his injury against Temple was a major downer, he does not return. The new starter will be Junior Zach Abey who was the QB thrust into action late in the year, it's tough to evaluate him because of the situation but with a good rushing average and he passed the ball pretty well, he seems to have a lot of potential. Actually preparing to be the starter will hopefully cut down on the turnovers and sacks he took. One of the few previews where the fullback is the talking point is Navy's and they sure do have a good one in Chris High, typically you think of a fullback as plunging ahead for at most 4 yards and a cloud of dust for a first down, but he averaged 6.4 yards per carry. Navy loses their starting slot backs, but that is usual for them. Good news is their expected starters were good in reserve time last year. Receiver is a question as Navy lost a good one in Jamir Tillman, the offensive line is used to shuffling at Navy, 3 starters are gone but getting their best lineman from last year in Evan Martin is a bonus.

Navy's defense is never going to be at the top of the list of returning experience, typically if the system works one group of seniors comes in plays well for a year then the next group takes over. Every once in a while there's some special players who become multi-year starters. Well last year things didn't really go to plan. Navy always runs a bend and don't break defense to force opponents to run out of patience, but last year it broke too much. Navy didn't have much of a pass rush and the secondary struggled. The defensive line loses 3 of the top 4, but that's pretty normal..he hasn't proven a thing but sophomore Jackson Pittman could be intriguing, he is a 315 pound Nose Tackle, Navy usually doesn't have players that size due to their rigorous fitness training. Linebacker was younger than usual last year which means now 6 of the top 7 return this year, including leading tackler Micah Thomas. The secondary as I mentioned before struggled, the reason why, it was much younger than usual..Navy had to start several underclassmen. Last year's struggles now means this year's defense has more experience returning than usual.

The schedule is difficult, Navy's road slate is crazy this year. Navy has to play Tulsa, Memphis, Houston, Temple and Notre Dame all on the road, so yes Navy plays 4 of the AAC's top conference championship contenders and plays them ALL on the road. Navy's other non-conference games are the usual against Air Force and Army then they play Florida Atlantic. The schedule is tough, but a conference title is always possible as long as Ken Niumatalolo is the head coach (Spoiler he's going to be the head coach here for a lot longer.)

Predictions:

Sep. 1 @ Florida Atlantic: Perhaps the most patient team against the most impatient, Navy runs the ball at will and forces some mistakes by FAU to win. W
Sep. 9 Tulane: Navy might struggle a little offensively but their defense leads this victory. W
Sep. 23 Cincinnati: Navy rolls past Cincinnati for the win. W
Sep. 30 @ Tulsa: This game proves to be a shootout and Navy barely wins. W
Oct. 7 Air Force: Another close game but this series has favored the home team lately, Navy wins. W
Oct. 14 @ Memphis: The run of wins comes to an end as Navy doesn't get enough stops against the Memphis offense. L
Oct. 21 UCF: Navy's defense rebounds and plays well, while Navy's offense possesses the ball most of the game to win. W
Nov. 2 @ Temple: Navy struggles offensively in this game, and once again like last year they fall too far behind early. L
Nov. 11 SMU: On the bright side Navy might score less than 75 points this time. W
Nov. 18 @ Notre Dame: These two play late this year, Navy puts up a good fight but loses in a close game. L
Nov. 24 @ Houston: Houston gets revenge for last year's upset. L
Dec. 9 Army (Baltimore): Navy takes back the Commander in Chief trophy as they defeat Army. W

Predicted Record: 8-4(5-3)

 

[ckhokie]

Don't want to interrupt the momentum you've got going here, but did want to thank you for doing this. One of the threads I look forward to every year.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Don't want to interrupt the momentum you've got going here, but did want to thank you for doing this. One of the threads I look forward to every year.

Thank you sir definitely appreciate the good comments! It's a lot of fun to put these together each year (although once it actually comes to typing these things out is where it gets time consuming.) it's fun to see how teams look and at the end of the year to see whether I put good predictions together or made a fool of myself lol

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

SMU Mustangs

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Preview: A few years ago SMU quickly caught everyone's eye when they managed to hire Chad Morris, it was a hire that was seemingly perfect for this program. So far things are working out quite well, his first year still featured a lot of losses but SMU was more competitive, last year featured an increase to 5 wins. Now this year looks like the first time we'll get to see an idea of how Chad Morris' SMU will really look. Just how good will it be? And afterwards will SMU be able to hold on to Chad Morris?

Last year was off to a bittersweet start as SMU lost their senior QB in Matt Davis in a season opening win over North Texas. SMU then threatened to upset Baylor for a majority of the game before Baylor hit them with an onslaught of points late, SMU handled Liberty in the next game. They didn't have a good game against TCU as they were blown out, same for the following week against Temple but SMU did nearly take down Tulsa losing 43-40 in overtime. SMU soon found the highlight of their season though as they quickly jumped out to a 21-0 lead and sailed to a big upset over Houston. SMU followed it with a win over Tulane, before getting embarrassed by Memphis. SMU rebounded to blow out East Carolina and lose by only 8 to South Florida...the season ended with a dud though as SMU was destroyed by Navy somehow giving up 75 points (in just 57 plays!!!) in the process.

SMU's offense struggled early in the year after Matt Davis' injury but it resulted in them getting a head start on this year as QB Ben Hicks who was only a freshman at the time took over, and after struggles in the first half of the year he played a lot better in the second half and now with a full offseason to work with the starters he should progress really well and if he doesn't Arkansas transfer Rafe Peavey could take the starting job from him. SMU returns a trio of solid backs in the run game, RBs Braeden West and Ke'Mon Freeman had the majority of the rushing load last year both are back and they were both good runners, West was more likely to cause an impact play whether that be him taking off for a long run or him fumbling the ball away. There is also Xavier Jones who had over 100 yards against North Texas in the opener and was basically hurt the rest of the year. The receiving corps are very exciting, first of all last year's top 8 receivers are all back. James Proche was a very solid receiver as only a freshman last year, there's juniors Xavier Castille and Kevin Thomas who were also solid last year, they also add in LSU transfer Trey Quinn into the mix and he looked strong in spring practice...oh and I guess I should mention junior Courtland Sutton who stunned NFL scouts by returning to school despite the fact that he could have been a first round pick (but he was only a sophomore may end up being a smart decision) and now Sutton is right there as perhaps the best receiver in college football, he alone will make SMU a fun team to watch. The offensive line returns 4 players with starting experience.

SMU's defense actually exceeded expectations last year, entering the year it looked to possibly be one of the worst defenses in college football, and for most of the year they actually weren't all too bad. The last part of the year was when the defense collapsed thanks to injuries. SMU loses 3 of their top defensive linemen from last year but that's ok because roughly 10 of them played last year. Perhaps two of the best players from the line are back though, end Justin Lawler was amazing as he had 15 TFL and 6 sacks, defensive tackle Demerick Gary is another solid returnee who had 7.5 TFL and 4 sacks as a freshman last year. SMU returns a little more than half their linebackers, they have some solid blitzing linebackers but they are a little undersized and could get pushed around if the defensive line struggles. The secondary was rather impressive, they didn't give up big pass plays and overall defended the pass well and this is despite SMU playing an absurd amount of freshmen, 5 of their top 8 contributors were in fact freshmen last year. That sets the tone for a potentially strong secondary this year. By the way another unfortunate plus is SMU can't possibly get much worse at special teams than they were last year.

SMU has some challenges on their schedule but it's more favorable than in year's past. They don't have Baylor on it this year, but of course they still play TCU. The rest of their non-conference features games against Stephen F Austin, North Texas, and Arkansas State. SMU's conference schedule is favorable thanks to the draw from the east where UCF is their most challenging opponent and they also get Cincinnati and UConn. The conference schedule also has it's unfavorable moments as SMU has to play 3 of their biggest competitors for the West division (Houston, Memphis, Navy) all on the road. SMU may not be ready for conference title contention yet but year 3 under Chad Morris will be exciting to watch and should end in a bowl appearance.

Predictions:

Sep. 2 Stephen F Austin: SFA went 5-6 in FCS last year and lost 59-17 to Texas Tech, should be simple. W
Sep. 9 North Texas: SMU should easily win this game as well. W
Sep. 16 @ TCU: SMU isn't quite ready to upset their rivals just yet. L
Sep. 23 Arkansas State: SMU's offense proves to be too much for Arkansas State to handle. W
Sep. 30 UConn: W
Oct. 7 @ Houston: a grudge match from last year's upset, Houston gets their revenge this time. L
Oct. 21 @ Cincinnati: Cincinnati doesn't have the ground game to take advantage of SMU's bad run defense, SMU will still perform well on offense despite the tough defensive matchup. W
Oct. 27 Tulsa: These two have been in fun shootouts the past 2 years under their head coaches, this time SMU wins it. W
Nov. 4 UCF: SMU will be able to take full advantage of Sutton going up against a younger secondary. W
Nov. 11 @ Navy: This won't go as well, Navy's run offense will probably rip SMU's defense a new one again, a few boggled possessions for SMU is all it takes for them to lose. L
Nov. 18 @ Memphis: SMU has been completely embarrassed by Memphis the past 2 years, I think they at least lose by less than 40 points this time. L
Nov. 25 Tulane: Tulane is a tough game for SMU because their defense is solid and the one thing Tulane can do is run the ball. This game actually goes back and forth but SMU takes the lead late and Tulane is left helpless when they're forced to pass. W

Predicted Record: 8-4(5-3)

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

South Florida Bulls

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Preview: South Florida is a program that is still relatively young and already it has had some wild ups and downs. For one this year will mark the 10 year anniversary of that absolutely wild and bonkers 2007 season where at one point during that season the South Florida Bulls rose up to #2 in the BCS rankings, unfortunately they collapsed late in the year. South Florida had a similar story the next year entering the top 10 before faltering. They showed promise but could never really finish, in the following years this program got lost dealing with several losing seasons, but two years ago Willie Taggert found that this program had great athletes to run a spread out faster paced attack and it worked beautifully. Now Taggert is off to Oregon and Charlie Strong takes over as the head coach. For how badly Strong seemed to be a fit at Texas, he looks to be a perfect fit at South Florida. Strong has very good Florida ties, and South Florida is no where near the high pressure situation that Texas is. Strong has the roster for success, this should be a lot of fun.

Last year was the year that South Florida finally closed on a good season and as a result it was their best season ever. They opened the year with blowout wins over Towson, Northern Illinois and Syracuse before taking on Florida State in the big matchup. South Florida opened the game with an immediate deep bomb for a touchdown, Florida State quickly answered then South Florida quickly drove down the field to retake the lead, once again Florida State answered that fast and then South Florida got out of sync went 3 and out a few times and that's all it took for Florida State to run away with it. South Florida resumed normal service against Cincinnati, East Carolina and UConn. Then South Florida once again hit disappointment as they couldn't stop the run against Temple, and once again all it took was some 3 and outs for South Florida to lose the game that cost them the division. South Florida did recover to win shootouts over Navy and Memphis. Before closing the regular season beating SMU and UCF. South Florida played South Carolina in the Birmingham bowl and were blowing them out most of the game, out of nowhere the interim coach randomly kicked an onside kick that South Carolina recovered, South Carolina got momentum and nearly stole the game away but the Bulls survived in overtime.

South Florida had perhaps the best big play offense in college football, they seemingly managed to hit at least a few big plays every single week and they were brilliant in using tempo to throw the defense off. That much shouldn't change this year Strong brought Sterlin Gilbert with him, Gilbert as most know immediately revived the Texas offense last year, he actually might up the pace from what South Florida was running already. There is one flaw this offense had, for every long touchdown it seemed like South Florida would also have a 3 and out, this offense was explosive but not that efficient. South Florida has an absolute star in QB Quinton Flowers, he is a little undersized but can make most throws and is also an explosive runner, he's dangerous any time he has the ball and could even be a Heisman contender. South Florida does lose a great RB in Marlon Mack who was drafted in the 4th round, Mack was also very explosive though not as efficient he would occasionally get stuffed on some runs. The new starter in D'Ernest Johnson was more consistent than Mack was, he would usually get a solid gain but isn't quite the big play back. South Florida brings back everyone at receiver except Rodney Adams, who was their top receiver and he was a fantastic target. There's several explosive receivers returning though (I've used the word "explosive" like 8 times already but it really describes this offense and its players.) South Florida loses 2 all-conference linemen but 3 starters are back.

The main reason why it was such an issue when South Florida went 3 and out on offense sometimes? Only a few 3 and outs meant that South Florida would fall behind and not be able to come back because the defense was incapable of making stops. It was a positive that they did have a deep rotation despite not having as many injuries, it's also good that a lot of these players are back. The defensive line returns two good tackles in Deadrin Senat who was the Bulls best run defender and Bruce Hector who had 8 TFL and 6 sacks. South Florida loses two starting linebackers but the one that returns is Auggie Sanchez who is the star of this defense he had nearly 100 tackles and also 6 sacks. The secondary loses a starter and backup, but the safeties play well against both the run and pass and corner Deatrick Nichols is a solid starter. With all the experience back it will be interesting to see if this defense can improve from last year.

South Florida has the most manageable schedule in the AAC. Their non-conference schedule consists of San Jose State, Stony Brook, Illinois and UMass. South Florida draws Tulane, Tulsa and Houston from the West division and their toughest games (Temple, Houston and Tulsa) are all at home. It's all on the table for the Bulls, a little more consistency from the offense and a defense that at least provides some resistance and they could blow through their schedule to an unbeaten record and a New Years 6 bowl (the non-conference schedule kills any playoff hopes) but I don't know the defense and occasionally lulls in offense concern me too much to go all in on the Bulls.

Predictions:

Aug. 26 @ San Jose State: South Florida should win this game but San Jose State might join them in putting up a lot of points, San Jose State is going to the up-tempo offense as well. W
Sep. 2 Stony Brook: Stony Brook wasn't too good last year going 5-6 and they lost 38-0 to Temple. Bulls should roll. W
Sep.9 @ UConn: W
Sep. 15 Illinois: Illinois also has an offense capable of explosive plays but for every 3 and out South Florida typically has, Illinois has at least 5 of them. Bulls have a worse defense but their offense is still more trustworthy. W
Sep. 21 Temple: Revenge for last year's loss, the Bulls play well offensively and defense makes enough plays to win. W
Sep. 30 @ East Carolina: Upset! I don't know why I'm going with the upset here, any game could be one where the Bulls get too inconsistent on offense to lose. L
Oct. 14 Massachusetts: They come back with a vengeance. W
Oct. 21 @ Tulane: W
Oct. 28 Cincinnati: South Florida blows out Cincinnati as well. W
Nov. 4 Houston: Houston uses this game as a big statement to show the rest of the conference to not forget about them. L
Nov. 18 Tulsa: South Florida wins a shootout. W
Nov. 24 @ UCF: The Bulls struggle with their rivals but escape with a win. W

Predicted Record: 10-2(6-2)

 

[AlaskaGuy]

Ranking the Toughest Games on Boise State's College Football Schedule in 2017

 

[AlaskaGuy]

What is the outlook for Boise State's future?

Don't overlook rarely under-the-radar Boise State