POLL Blake Bortles: Bust?

[Yo Tee]

1. There are plenty of stats on there that don't adjust for the defense.
2. A botched snap is a negative.
3. I didn't say it was the best, I asked you why it was "BS"
4. Who uses 100 yard rushing as the statistic? Is 145 rushing yards the same as 100? Is 90 rushing yards that much different than 100? Silly to put an arbitrary measuring stick on there.
5. You are falling into a problem of relying on "analysts" whose job it is to break down the game in a viewer-friendly manner and then trusting that those are the best ways to measure a player. Of course real stats like DVOA aren't going to be mainstream, it takes more research and time to understand it than most casual viewers want.

We disagree. Let's leave it at that.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

So Bortles had some halfway decent numbers in 2015? Big deal. Did you happen to notice the Jags schedule that season? They played 6 games against their own division which was the worst or 2nd worst in the NFL. They played the NFC South which was not good that season except for the Panthers & they only scored 8 against them. They also played the Ravens & Chargers who were awful that season & rounded it out by playing the AFC-E where they lost to the 2 good teams from that season (but were competitive against the Jets).

Sure - the blame for the losses can be placed elsewhere, but I would not be crowing too loudly about what Bortles did that season. Stats are also a nice part of a story, but they need to be accompanied by an eye test & if you watch many Jags games (which most folks don't) you will see that Bortles will quite often play poorly at the beginning & then put up some numbers at a pt where it won't make a difference in the outcome of the game. That won't always show up clearly in raw stats.

 

[olympicoscar]

It looks like they'll have some better players this year. If it's another mediocre year, then it's time to look for a new QB.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I'm not a big fan of adjusting for schedule, statistically. Football isn't a math equation, it's a game of matchups.

While I agree, I most definitely feel you can measure and document the success a player has by route, depth, catch rate, and so on and so forth. I think you're underestimating the value of the statistics in play here.

What stat are you going to choose to pay attention to, Red Zone defense stats or the DVOA of a secondary when it comes to 2nd and 5 situations?

Probably depends for the former, the latter is such a niche category I don't think DVOA would be very useful. Snaps are so precious with football the categories should be broader before specific (which is why people should watch film coach or not; it's the only way to get root level analysis) in my opinion. Film is best, but stuff like DVOA is probably the best thing joe schmo fan like me can get their hands on readily and at a consumable pace. React less to stats, and compare to what you're seeing seems more useful to me, personally.

I know I got into arguments about the Chiefs just not being as good as they were in 2015 last year with @rmilia1 for instance. This was largely due to statistical reasons, but you could also see on tape that the RB's and Runblocking just wasn't where it was the previous year; and the defense while had many outstanding players, had some very considerable holes due to injury or just a gap on the roster which produced some pretty gross totals on Run D and yardage period in between the 20's. The structure of that defense is built specifically to stop the pass, and then the run. If it can't quite clamp down on either but can punish bad mistakes, well you get the 2016 Chiefs defense I guess.

what if there is a botched snap on a 3rd and 5?

Only legit way to be sure who's at fault would be to watch film, and I'd probably guess the center more often than not. But in simple terms, botching the snap is a negative play that does happen- and can be part of an accumulation of information when quantifying offense over a season, imo.

There are flaws to it and I don't think it's the best way to judge a team or a defensive or offensive line.

Stats reveal something vital, but they don't provide sustenance. Chris Jones for instance looks incredible just counting how many pressures he has and how he ragdolls lineman- but his leverage is actually unusually poor for such an effective interior DL. Maybe that portends untapped potential and says just how absurdly strong he is, but I am not so arrogant to think there couldn't also be negatives; though I am pretty, pretty confident in Jones' ability going forward. OL I'd almost exclusively want to watch as I don't trust very many people to evaluate it. Stats unfortunately with the OL are strongly linked to the QB- and that creates a lot mistrust for me when the ball is out in say 2.5 seconds, or 4 for looking at sack totals. Got to know when the QB creates the sack and when the OL creates it. Or maybe it's a bad design altogether. Have to watch to be sure, but the accumulation of data is hardly a bad thing if one does it carefully and responsibly.

And my RB can have 5 yards a carry all he wants but if he can't rush for 100 yards a game, that's a problem.

In the NFL I'd disagree- longevity is something I value and have no interest in giving one guy all the touches unless it's a truly dominant guy like Bell- and even then I'd be reticent to do so. It's a long season, I definitely want over 100 yards rushing a game, but I am very willing to get that second or even third RB that can tote the rock for me. There's also the receiving aspect of things, and there are some darn good receiving backs these days. Spencer Ware caught a post route last year lined up out of the backfield- and it was awesome!

Not, how many 5 yard per rush average RBs did that defense face.

I believe we as fans have the intelligence and ability to quantify and account for both things. While also looking at how the performance differs from 6,7,8,9,10, 11 men in the box.

 

[eaglesnut]

He needs to get off to a good start this year.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

vote and discuss

I voted no.

I think with the new rookie contracts, and the early positive progress we've seen from a handful of players in their rookie season (we've shortened up the learning curve for QBs)...I've always felt it takes 3 yrs of starting to really know what you're doing AND you know what DCs are trying to do to stop you.

Couple that with him basically needing to carry the team from day one...he gets another yr at least...if he brings the INTs down, there's a good chance he will be the long term QB in JAX.

 

[Rock Strongo]

I voted no.

I think with the new rookie contracts, and the early positive progress we've seen from a handful of players in their rookie season (we've shortened up the learning curve for QBs)...I've always felt it takes 3 yrs of starting to really know what you're doing AND you know what DCs are trying to do to stop you.

Couple that with him basically needing to carry the team from day one...he gets another yr at least...if he brings the INTs down, there's a good chance he will be the long term QB in JAX.

henne is getting starters reps now.

then theres this:

Sunday wasn’t a planned rest day, per Marrone

 

[Yo Tee]

henne is getting starters reps now.

then theres this:

Sunday wasn’t a planned rest day, per Marrone

 

[tducey]

I went with option 2. Don't think he'll see success in Jacksonville though and probably moves on at the end of the season.

 

[Iggloo]

Bortles can supposedly put those drinks down though. All-Pro in that category, according to the internet.

Yes, probably a bust, but I think he gets one more year. Or half a year.

 

[bksballer89]

 

[Yo Tee]

 

[bksballer89]

 

[broncosmitty]

Well, Jacksonvilles receivers are clearly retarded.

That franchise needs to spend more high picks on offensive skill positions.... wait, no they don't.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Soooooo not surprised. Not that it would matter as far as the SB goes, but Kaep would be an upgrade there.

 

[megalodon30]

How is Chad Henne still in the league?

 

[megalodon30]

Soooooo not surprised. Not that it would matter as far as the SB goes, but Kaep would be an upgrade there.

He'd be an upgrade from a 4 win season to a 4 win season with more rushing yards from the QB position.

 

[The Derski]

Throwing the football is a lot harder than catching it. Reciever should stfu

 

[Fountain City Blues]

He'd be an upgrade from a 4 win season to a 4 win season with more rushing yards from the QB position.

Hush, Tebowite.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Throwing the football is a lot harder than catching it. Reciever should stfu

Yeah, but it's not exactly one throw with Bortles either...