POLL Blake Bortles: Bust?

[Fountain City Blues]

 

[Yo Tee]

You might as well be talking Mandarin to me. What the hell is a DVOA? Another made up ESPN stat? LOL

 

[soxfan1468927]

Game Situational Stats:
Trailing, < 2 min to go: 14-22 210 yards 4 TDs 1 INT 115.5 QBR 3 sacks
Trailing, < 4 min to go: 42-64 586 yards 7 TDs 3 INTs 111.8 QBR 7 sacks

Quarter Breakdown:
1st Qtr: 70-118 891 yards 2 TDs 1 INT 85.1 QBR
2nd Qtr: 99-170 1116 yards 10 TDs 9 INTs 75.5 QBR
3rd Qtr: 76-122 969 yards 9 TDs 1 INT 108.3 QBR
4th Qtr: 111-193 1442 yards 14 TDs 7 INTs 90.2 QBR

4th quarter is where he gets the most of his yardage, but to say it's a significant difference is not accurate. Same with TDs. Only 796 yards and 11 TDs in these games where they are trailing in the 4th with less than 4 minutes on the clock. I tend to disagree with the bulk of his stats being garbage stats. I'm not arguing he's a top 10, top 15 QB, but 2016 was just a bad year. QBs have bad years. He's not as bad as 2016 would paint him out to be.

Setting a limit at 4 minutes is arbitrary. How about the 152 yards and 2 TDs he compiled against the Pats when they were down 30-3? Sure, he threw that first TD when there was still 6:30 left in the 3rd quarter, but garbage time had already started. How about the compiling against Houston? Just because the TD came at 4:30 instead of 4:00 doesn't make that much of a difference.

 

[soxfan1468927]

You might as well be talking Mandarin to me. What the hell is a DVOA? Another made up ESPN stat? LOL

Actually no, it's a stat that is compiled by Football Outsiders that look at every snap of every game, compare results of each play to the league average, and rank players and teams based on how much better above average they are. They look at down and distance, time on the clock, score situation, defense they are playing against (or offense they are playing against), etc. It's a very thorough look.

 

[Yo Tee]

Setting a limit at 4 minutes is arbitrary. How about the 152 yards and 2 TDs he compiled against the Pats when they were down 30-3? Sure, he threw that first TD when there was still 6:30 left in the 3rd quarter, but garbage time had already started. How about the compiling against Houston? Just because the TD came at 4:30 instead of 4:00 doesn't make that much of a difference.

Pointing out those 2 games doesn't change the facts that 30% of his passing yards came in the 4th quarter. That stat doesn't put the 4 minute limit on it. That is the WHOLE quarter. That's not a huge difference from the 2nd quarter which is 24% of his passing yards. And look at his 3rd quarter stats, arguably his best quarter with no garbage time stats. 1 INT in the 3rd quarter with a QBR of over 108. Look at how he played in close games. 4 TDs 1 INT 303 yards against Tampa Bay which was a 7 point game going into the 4th quarter. 5 TDs against the Titans which was a shootout in the 4th quarter. 3 TDs in the 4th quarter. 5 games with a QBR of 102-134 and 4 of those were decided by 11 points or less. Not to mention he was sacked 51 times in 2015. His o-line needs to protect him in order for him to make the plays. Also, stats from games where he played and the Jags were trailing is a skewed statistic because they trailed in practically every game because they went 5-11 lol

 

[soxfan1468927]

Pointing out those 2 games doesn't change the facts that 30% of his passing yards came in the 4th quarter. That stat doesn't put the 4 minute limit on it. That is the WHOLE quarter. That's not a huge difference from the 2nd quarter which is 24% of his passing yards. And look at his 3rd quarter stats, arguably his best quarter with no garbage time stats. 1 INT in the 3rd quarter with a QBR of over 108. Look at how he played in close games. 4 TDs 1 INT 303 yards against Tampa Bay which was a 7 point game going into the 4th quarter. 5 TDs against the Titans which was a shootout in the 4th quarter. 3 TDs in the 4th quarter. 5 games with a QBR of 102-134 and 4 of those were decided by 11 points or less. Not to mention he was sacked 51 times in 2015. His o-line needs to protect him in order for him to make the plays.

Go back to what I originally said and tell me what exactly you are arguing. I said to take a look at the game logs of those games because it's pretty funny to see.

vs Patriots: 1:22 left, Bortles throws a TD to make it 51-17
vs Bucs: 1:05 left, Bortles throws a TD to make it 38-31
vs Houston: 4:32 left, Bortles throws a TD to make it 34-20
vs Jets: 2:16 left, Bortles throws a TD to make it 28-23
vs Chargers: 1:21 left, Bortles throws a TD to make it 31-25
vs Saints: 1:13 left, Bortles throws a TD to make it 38-27

And no garbage time stats in the 3rd quarter? I beg to differ.

-9.9% DVOA in 2015, -10.0% DVOA in 2016. He's the same QB and will suck again this year.

 

[Yo Tee]

Go back to what I originally said and tell me what exactly you are arguing. I said to take a look at the game logs of those games because it's pretty funny to see.

vs Patriots: 1:22 left, Bortles throws a TD to make it 51-17
vs Bucs: 1:05 left, Bortles throws a TD to make it 38-31
vs Houston: 4:32 left, Bortles throws a TD to make it 34-20
vs Jets: 2:16 left, Bortles throws a TD to make it 28-23
vs Chargers: 1:21 left, Bortles throws a TD to make it 31-25
vs Saints: 1:13 left, Bortles throws a TD to make it 38-27

And no garbage time stats in the 3rd quarter? I beg to differ.

-9.9% DVOA in 2015, -10.0% DVOA in 2016. He's the same QB and will suck again this year.

All but 2 of those TD were when the game was still winnable by Jacksonville. How are those garbage time stats? I'll give you the TD against the Patriots and the Saints, but those other games, the game was still a touchdown game. I'll just agree to disagree and see how he plays this year.

 

[soxfan1468927]

All but 2 of those TD were when the game was still winnable by Jacksonville. How are those garbage time stats? I'll give you the TD against the Patriots and the Saints, but those other games, the game was still a touchdown game. I'll just agree to disagree and see how he plays this year.

"You should really go back and look at the 2015 game logs. The amount of TDs and yards he compiled in the final quarter, or even final minutes, of games in which the Jags were down by multiple scores is pretty funny"

That is what I said. Yes, those games are "winnable" if you recover an onside kick. So what are you arguing?

 

[Yo Tee]

"You should really go back and look at the 2015 game logs. The amount of TDs and yards he compiled in the final quarter, or even final minutes, of games in which the Jags were down by multiple scores is pretty funny"

That is what I said. Yes, those games are "winnable" if you recover an onside kick. So what are you arguing?

I don't think cherry picking 6 or 7 games indicates that he didn't have a good 2015 season. When people look at his career stats, they aren't going to show that he threw 8 TDs in the 4th quarter while trailing with 4 minutes left. They aren't going to see this DVOA BS. They aren't gonna see that he threw a TD with 2 minutes left, but his special teams couldn't recover an onside kick. They will see that Jacksonville lost 6 of their 10 games by 7 points or less. They will see that Blake Bortles set 4 franchise records for passing yards and touchdowns. They are gonna see that Blake Bortles kept his team in the game until there was no game left to play in those 6 games. They will see that he was 7th in yards, 4th in TDs, 6th in TD% when attempting a pass, tied for 2nd with 3 4th quarter comebacks, tied for 2nd with 4 game winning drives. They will also see that he was the most intercepted and sacked QB in 2015. You could cherry pick Aaron Rodgers first 10 games last year and say he didn't have a good year. Bortles didn't have a running game last year, didn't have a defense that could stop opposing offenses and didn't have an o-line that could block for him. Bortles isn't the perfect QB when it comes to his mechanics, but he needs people to pick up the slack around him in order to be a top 15 QB.

 

[soxfan1468927]

I don't think cherry picking 6 or 7 games indicates that he didn't have a good 2015 season. When people look at his career stats, they aren't going to show that he threw 8 TDs in the 4th quarter while trailing with 4 minutes left. They aren't going to see this DVOA BS. They aren't gonna see that he threw a TD with 2 minutes left, but his special teams couldn't recover an onside kick. They will see that Jacksonville lost 6 of their 10 games by 7 points or less. They will see that Blake Bortles set 4 franchise records for passing yards and touchdowns. They are gonna see that Blake Bortles kept his team in the game until there was no game left to play in those 6 games. They will see that he was 7th in yards, 4th in TDs, 6th in TD% when attempting a pass, tied for 2nd with 3 4th quarter comebacks, tied for 2nd with 4 game winning drives. They will also see that he was the most intercepted and sacked QB in 2015. You could cherry pick Aaron Rodgers first 10 games last year and say he didn't have a good year. Bortles didn't have a running game last year, didn't have a defense that could stop opposing offenses and didn't have an o-line that could block for him. Bortles isn't the perfect QB when it comes to his mechanics, but he needs people to pick up the slack around him in order to be a top 15 QB.

You've had too much coffee.

I don't know what you are arguing. I don't know the point in your posts anymore. I don't know who "they" is nor does that matter as I do not care about what other people think of the QB.

Sure he compiled a bunch of yards and TDs and set franchise records for a crappy franchise. He was also 23rd in passer rating. And the Jaguars were 13th in the league in rushing yards per attempt. Their running game was just fine.

I did notice though, you referred to DVOA as BS and you admitted already that you don't even know what it is. So that tells me you will not bother to learn about something that doesn't fit your agenda, whatever that may be. That's just pathetic.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

You might as well be talking Mandarin to me. What the hell is a DVOA? Another made up ESPN stat? LOL

DVOA is hardly a joke- it's actually quite useful if you understand what it does and does not do. I'd politely invite you to look into it. It's much better than you think. It's not QBR-like ESPN nonsense.

 

[Yo Tee]

You've had too much coffee.

I don't know what you are arguing. I don't know the point in your posts anymore. I don't know who "they" is nor does that matter as I do not care about what other people think of the QB.

Sure he compiled a bunch of yards and TDs and set franchise records for a crappy franchise. He was also 23rd in passer rating. And the Jaguars were 13th in the league in rushing yards per attempt. Their running game was just fine.

I did notice though, you referred to DVOA as BS and you admitted already that you don't even know what it is. So that tells me you will not bother to learn about something that doesn't fit your agenda, whatever that may be. That's just pathetic.

Just because I said I didn't know what DVOA means, doesn't mean I didn't look it up and figure out what it means. And 'they' are anyone who looks up statistics. How many times have you heard an ESPN analyst say, "Well, Bortles has almost 4500 yards and 35 TD which is almost 2 per game. He did set some franchise records but, ya know, his DVOA was the worst in the league so that makes it clear to me he had a terrible year in 2015!"

My agenda is, and the stats back it up, that Bortles had a good year in 2015 and an awful year in 2016. He had a bad year. Every QB has a bad year. Doesn't mean they are a bust. Also, Jacksonville was 27th in 2015 in rushing yards per game. In 2016, Jacksonville was 23rd. 2014, 21st. I don't think rushing yards per attempt matter as much as rushing yards per game, but that's just me.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Just because I said I didn't know what DVOA means, doesn't mean I didn't look it up and figure out what it means. And 'they' are anyone who looks up statistics. How many times have you heard an ESPN analyst say, "Well, Bortles has almost 4500 yards and 35 TD which is almost 2 per game. He did set some franchise records but, ya know, his DVOA was the worst in the league so that makes it clear to me he had a terrible year in 2015!"

My agenda is, and the stats back it up, that Bortles had a good year in 2015 and an awful year in 2016. He had a bad year. Every QB has a bad year. Doesn't mean they are a bust. Also, Jacksonville was 27th in 2015 in rushing yards per game. In 2016, Jacksonville was 23rd. 2014, 21st. I don't think rushing yards per attempt matter as much as rushing yards per game, but that's just me.

Okay so why should I care about what an ESPN analyst thinks? And if you looked up DVOA, why did you conclude that it was BS? What don't you like about it?

Yards and TDs back up that he had a good year in 2015, overall stats like passer rating and DVOA do not. And of course you prefer yards per game, it fits your agenda.

 

[Ojb81]

Bortles is crap, not a leader thats gonna lead a team out of the abyss and into the realm of teams whom are highly competitive. Anyone here trying to argue otherwise is blind.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Bortles is crap, not a leader thats gonna lead a team out of the abyss and into the realm of teams whom are highly competitive. Anyone here trying to argue otherwise is blind.

If the Jags can't make the playoffs with what's around him, that has got to be the deathknell for his career as a starter. Dude has gotten an absurd number of excuses.

 

[Yo Tee]

Okay so why should I care about what an ESPN analyst thinks? And if you looked up DVOA, why did you conclude that it was BS? What don't you like about it?

Yards and TDs back up that he had a good year in 2015, overall stats like passer rating and DVOA do not. And of course you prefer yards per game, it fits your agenda.

I'm not a big fan of adjusting for schedule, statistically. Football isn't a math equation, it's a game of matchups. Say the best pass defense in the NFL has a very large pass rush size-wise and big corners that disrupt the receivers at release. Now say the 8th best passing offense has a very heavy offensive line and small receivers that can get off the press easily and get down field quickly. Would you rather face that defense with that offense, or the second best offense that has small linemen and average sized receivers? To each his own, obviously, when it comes to liking the DVOA stat or not but as a coach, I'd definitely play the matchups over how two different sets of personnel did against several different sets of personnel in certain game situations. What stat are you going to choose to pay attention to, Red Zone defense stats or the DVOA of a secondary when it comes to 2nd and 5 situations? It's in depth, for sure, but I don't think it's a stat to judge players on because, for instance, what if there is a botched snap on a 3rd and 5? That would show up as a negative on the DVOA because it wasn't converted to a first down. There are flaws to it and I don't think it's the best way to judge a team or a defensive or offensive line.

And my RB can have 5 yards a carry all he wants but if he can't rush for 100 yards a game, that's a problem. The statistic regularly used is how many 100 yard rushing games did that offense have, or how many 100 yard rushing games did that defense give up. Not, how many 5 yard per rush average RBs did that defense face.

 

[Yo Tee]

If the Jags can't make the playoffs with what's around him, that has got to be the deathknell for his career as a starter. Dude has gotten an absurd number of excuses.

He's finally got a decent RB, he's finally got a healthy defense, this year, there's no excuses unless about 5 or 6 defensive/offensive line guys get hurt or if Fournette gets hurt.

 

[Yo Tee]

Bortles is crap, not a leader thats gonna lead a team out of the abyss and into the realm of teams whom are highly competitive. Anyone here trying to argue otherwise is blind.

He's not a top 15 QB, but he's got potential if the team around him can get it together and stay healthy. He does have to work on his mechanics though also.

 

[soxfan1468927]

I'm not a big fan of adjusting for schedule, statistically. Football isn't a math equation, it's a game of matchups. Say the best pass defense in the NFL has a very large pass rush size-wise and big corners that disrupt the receivers at release. Now say the 8th best passing offense has a very heavy offensive line and small receivers that can get off the press easily and get down field quickly. Would you rather face that defense with that offense, or the second best offense that has small linemen and average sized receivers? To each his own, obviously, when it comes to liking the DVOA stat or not but as a coach, I'd definitely play the matchups over how two different sets of personnel did against several different sets of personnel in certain game situations. What stat are you going to choose to pay attention to, Red Zone defense stats or the DVOA of a secondary when it comes to 2nd and 5 situations? It's in depth, for sure, but I don't think it's a stat to judge players on because, for instance, what if there is a botched snap on a 3rd and 5? That would show up as a negative on the DVOA because it wasn't converted to a first down. There are flaws to it and I don't think it's the best way to judge a team or a defensive or offensive line.

And my RB can have 5 yards a carry all he wants but if he can't rush for 100 yards a game, that's a problem. The statistic regularly used is how many 100 yard rushing games did that offense have, or how many 100 yard rushing games did that defense give up. Not, how many 5 yard per rush average RBs did that defense face.

1. There are plenty of stats on there that don't adjust for the defense.
2. A botched snap is a negative.
3. I didn't say it was the best, I asked you why it was "BS"
4. Who uses 100 yard rushing as the statistic? Is 145 rushing yards the same as 100? Is 90 rushing yards that much different than 100? Silly to put an arbitrary measuring stick on there.
5. You are falling into a problem of relying on "analysts" whose job it is to break down the game in a viewer-friendly manner and then trusting that those are the best ways to measure a player. Of course real stats like DVOA aren't going to be mainstream, it takes more research and time to understand it than most casual viewers want.

 

[Ojb81]

He's not a top 15 QB, but he's got potential if the team around him can get it together and stay healthy. He does have to work on his mechanics though also.

He's always had "potential", whoopty doo. its the freakin NFL, he BETTER have potential. Still, at this point, I've seene enough to know whats up, and whats up, is that he's a bust. Maybe he can be a decent backup, but thats probably about it