Biggest weaknesses for AFC West teams - ESPN Insider

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Biggest roster weaknesses for Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders - NFL
By Scott Kacsmar

Denver Broncos
Biggest post-draft weakness: Offensive line

Denver has one of the most talented rosters in the league, so there were not many holes to fill in what was a relatively quiet offseason for John Elway and Co. One of last season's problems that was not solved with a high-priced free agent or premium draft pick is the offensive line. Ryan Clady and Louis Vasquez are the known commodities up front, and both should perform better this season. Clady is another year removed from his 2013 Lisfranc injury, and Vasquez should stay at right guard after last year's failed experiment at tackle.

That still means Denver could be looking at three new starters to fill out a line that must keep a 39-year-old Peyton Manning healthy for the full season. If the Broncos can do that, then the line is in great shape with Manning and new coach Gary Kubiak running the show. Manning has led the NFL in the lowest rate of pressure (credit to ESPN Stats & Information for pressure data) four times since 2010. He rarely needs his linemen to block for longer than 2.5 seconds after the snap, and he consistently puts Denver in the right plays. Meanwhile, Kubiak has taught numerous offenses the zone-blocking scheme that has produced huge rushing production from many unheralded backs, which is great news for C.J. Anderson. Just last year in Baltimore, Kubiak coordinated an offense that went from 32nd in adjusted line yards (a stat that measures run blocking separate from what a back does in the open field) to third in 2014.

Gino Gradkowski learned under Kubiak last season and may be the new center in Denver. Ben Garland and Michael Schofield have zero career starts, but both could see significant action this season. Guard Shelley Smith and tackle Chris Clark, who replaced an injured Clady in 2013's record-setting offense, are veterans who will compete for starting jobs. Continuity will have to be forged this preseason, but if anyone can coach up this line so that it works well immediately, it's Manning and Kubiak.

Kansas City Chiefs
Biggest post-draft weakness: Vertical passing game

Kansas City had a solid team last season, ranking 10th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, with big wins over both Super Bowl participants. However, something held this team back from making the playoffs at 9-7. Jamaal Charles is indisputably one of the best running backs in the league. Travis Kelce showed us he can be a good receiving tight end. The offensive line is below Andy Reid's usual standards, but we are willing to give Eric Fisher another chance to improve, and Ben Grubbs should be better at left guard. The front seven, led by Justin Houston, is one of the best out there, and cornerback Sean Smith charted well in pass coverage in 2014.

What the Chiefs still do not have is a vertical passing game that scares defenses down the field. Yes, Jeremy Maclin was a good signing, but this offense is still threatening to start someone like Jason Avant, Albert Wilson or Frankie Hammond opposite him. Maclin is just one guy, and if you're not talking about Randy Moss, then it's unlikely that one receiver is going to significantly change this offense. Everyone knows the Chiefs' wide receivers had zero touchdown catches last season, but even if Maclin matches his career-high 10 scores, will that mean the Chiefs score more points as a team? Or will it just change the distribution of the 18-24 touchdowns they can expect to get in the passing game?

Alex Smith is still the quarterback, and that's really where a lot of the problems originate. His conservatism is the double-edged sword that results in few turnovers and few big plays. On passes thrown more than 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage in 2014, Smith was 4-for-21 with three interceptions. In Philadelphia last season, Maclin caught eight of 29 passes thrown more than 20 yards, including five for touchdowns. Not only does the quarterback have to be reasonably accurate with the throw, but he has to be willing to give the receiver the opportunities to make those plays.

In his 11th season, it's hard to see Smith changing who he is as a quarterback.

 

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Part 2 of 2

Oakland Raiders
Biggest post-draft weakness: Secondary

Oakland has tried to rebuild practically its entire roster, and the secondary is the unit that has gotten the least attention so far. Charles Woodson had four of the team's nine interceptions last season, but the 38-year-old safety also missed 21 tackles, the second-highest total in the league, according to Football Outsiders game charting. Despite what he has lost athletically in his old age, Woodson is still likely the best free safety on a roster filled with inexperienced defensive backs.

Improvement in this secondary in 2015 rests heavily on two young cornerbacks: D.J. Hayden and T.J. Carrie. Hayden has had some health issues and has not shown much skill for making plays on the ball despite his first-round pedigree. He has two interceptions in 18 games and has been targeted heavily by opposing passers. Carrie came on late last year and could be the best cornerback in Oakland right now, but that's not saying much given the competition.

The Raiders said goodbye to injured safeties Tyvon Branch and Usama Young and signed Nate Allen from Philadelphia. In the past two years Allen has ranked 65th and 64th among safeties in adjusted success rate, which is based on Football Outsiders' charting of pass coverage. At least by not bringing back some stopgap veterans, Jack Del Rio's Raiders can take a closer look at Keith McGill, Brandian Ross and Larry Asante in the secondary.

San Diego Chargers
Biggest post-draft weakness: Offensive line

The move to trade up for running back Melvin Gordon was criticized by many statistically oriented analysts, but at least we know who will be carrying the ball most often for the Chargers. The next question is, who will block for Gordon? San Diego had the highest total of games lost to injury by an offensive line in any year in the Football Outsiders' injury database (which goes back to 2000). Simple healing will not fix the problem, since Nick Hardwick and Jeromey Clary both retired this offseason. Hardwick had been a rock at center for Philip Rivers, but he was the first of five centers to start for San Diego in 2014.

It was surprising to see San Diego not draft any offensive linemen, given that last season turned sour after news of a rib injury to Rivers saw a sharp decline in his play. Protecting the pocket passer has to be San Diego's top priority, but the strategy seems to be that a better running game will substitute for better pass protection. That's very questionable.

Orlando Franklin was San Diego's big free-agent signing from rival Denver. He'll slide in at left guard, though our game charters marked him with 9.5 blown blocks that led to runs for a loss last season, second among all guards. King Dunlap had a strong year at left tackle, ranking third at left tackle in fewest snaps per blown block according to Football Outsiders charting. But the rest of the line looks like a weakness.

The Chargers have three potential starters who ranked in the bottom 10 at their positions in our snaps per blown block metric last season (rankings based on minimum 400 snaps). D.J. Fluker, a first-rounder in 2013, has had at least 34.5 blown blocks in both of his seasons and actually fared worse in 2014 than he did as a rookie, ranking 36th out of 39 right tackles. Next to him at right guard, Johnnie Troutman ranked 27th out of 34 players at his position. And Chris Watt seems to be the last center standing in San Diego, though the third-round rookie was clearly overwhelmed at times in 2014. He ranked 30th out of 37 centers in snaps per blown block. Watt certainly deserves time to grow and should play better this year.

More importantly, this whole line needs to play much better if this offense is going to keep Rivers healthy, help Gordon make a run at rookie of the year and return to its past lofty standards.