Better 2014 fantasy season?

[TDs3nOut]

Which SP do you think will have more value in 2014 in a rotisserie league that scores ERA, WHIP, Ks, and Ws: Cueto or Strasburg?

 

[da55bums]

really? I know a league that you could join that I happen to be in, think there is 1 or 2 spots open. Your my type of player..

 

[TDs3nOut]

really? I know a league that you could join that I happen to be in, think there is 1 or 2 spots open. Your my type of player..

Well, I don't claim to be a great fantasy player, but I did win my league last year.

I infer from your post that you probably think Strasburg is the no-brainer choice here. I suppose that there are others who agree with that, but if you look at their numbers the past three years, Cueto has been the better pitcher, except for Ks.

 

[boredoutofmymind]

I was offered a 1st round pick in the supplemental draft and Cueto for Jordan Zimmerman and I didn't take it. I don't know if I can trust Cueto enough to do it.

 

[TDs3nOut]

I was offered a 1st round pick in the supplemental draft and Cueto for Jordan Zimmerman and I didn't take it. I don't know if I can trust Cueto enough to do it.

Trust Cueto's health or his ability to pitch effectively when healthy? I can see being concerned about the former, but not so much the latter.

 

[boredoutofmymind]

His health. If he is healthy sure I would take him in a heartbeat but I want to win my dynasty league not have to worry about finding a replacement SP in the middle of the season. And who knows I could be wrong he could be just fine but there is still a risk involved.

 

[tlance]

Which SP do you think will have more value in 2014 in a rotisserie league that scores ERA, WHIP, Ks, and Ws: Cueto or Strasburg?

Ks are pretty important in a roto league and so is durability.

Strasburg will be drafted somewhere between rounds 3 and 5.

Cueto will be drafted somewhere near round 15.

This really isn't close at all. There are many pitchers like Cueto who you can get later in drafts that will help your ERA and WHIP without a ton of Ks. Established aces like Stras who have elite ratios and better than a K per inning are hard to find. Don't overthink this because the value is night and day.

 

[The Cubs fan]

I think strausburg, also can you keep people for multiple years? That'd just add to his value if so.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Ks are pretty important in a roto league and so is durability.

Strasburg will be drafted somewhere between rounds 3 and 5.

Cueto will be drafted somewhere near round 15.

This really isn't close at all. There are many pitchers like Cueto who you can get later in drafts that will help your ERA and WHIP without a ton of Ks. Established aces like Stras who have elite ratios and better than a K per inning are hard to find. Don't overthink this because the value is night and day.

While I suspect that is probably true in many leagues, that doesn't necessarily mean that that is where each deserves to be drafted. In the league that I've played in the past four years, I drafted Starsburg with the last pick of the second round, but he finished as only the 18th most valuable SP, the same spot where he finished in 2012. Cueto was the 10th most valuable SP in 2012 and he was pitching even better than that last season before he got hurt.

Perhaps you are right that Strasburg is the better choice, but that isn't as transparent to me as it is to some.

 

[TDs3nOut]

I think strausburg, also can you keep people for multiple years? That'd just add to his value if so.

This is the first year that we get to keep one pitcher and one position player. I suspect the rules will most likely stay that way. Probably worth considering, since Strasburg is two years younger than Cueto.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Strasburg.

I'm a big Cueto fan, but I would be seriously worried about his obliques/triceps or whatever it was he couldn't fix this year. Also, Stras gets the better home park, and is younger. I agree though, that Cueto is overlooked by most and Strasburg's name might be better than his output... still, you get a name like that because there is that extra something, that only a select few have.

 

[da55bums]

Cuerto is definately one of the most undervalued players over the last 3 years but you aren't drafting for the last 3 years, your drafting for this year. Stras has been limited on innings and recoving from TJ, as well as learning the league the last 3 years, he has much more upside than Cuerto, who most likely will down slide....

Should be a swap in SP values between the two, if not a larger gap, probably (what fantasy playing is all about, predicting) beginning this season.

 

[tlance]

Cueto is solid, but he is an injury risk. For the sake of argument though, let's assume he is not.

Here are Cueto's numbers from 2012 (can't use 2013 because he didn't pitch enough, but they were pretty much in line).

ERA 2.78, WHIP 1.17, Ks 170, wins 19

Now Stras from last year:

ERA 3.00, WHIP 1.05, Ks 191, wins 8

If we assume that Strasburg does not get better and that Cueto remains the same, Cueto has a minor advantage in ERA (even though Strasburg's career ERA is better than Cueto's) Strasburg has a significant edge in WHIP and Ks.

Cueto should get a lot more wins, right?

Not so fast. First off, wins are the most difficult stat to predict by a long shot. Pitchers from good teams will obviously tend to get more, but there is too much that goes into the W stat that is outside the pitcher's control. The best pitcher in baseball last year (who by the way pitched for a winning team) received 6 losses or NDs in games where he gave up 1 ER or less.

The Nationals are expected to be one of, if not the best team in the NL, so we should not assume that a healthy Cueto will win more games than Strasburg next year. At best, we can project a toss up there.

In summary, Strasburg has better skills than Cueto now, he is younger, has less injury risk and pitches for a team many experts are picking to win the pennant.

If you choose Cueto you are going against all logic and you will likely regret it for a very long time. Strasburg has been a really good fantasy pitcher and he hasn't even reached his ceiling yet. He has the upside to be the best pitcher in baseball while Cueto has already maximized his potential (and probably even pitched over his head the last 3 years).

It is your team, so do what you must, but understand that there is a reason why everyone here is telling to keep Strasburg and it does go beyond his name.

Good luck.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Cueto is solid, but he is an injury risk. For the sake of argument though, let's assume he is not.

Here are Cueto's numbers from 2012 (can't use 2013 because he didn't pitch enough, but they were pretty much in line).

ERA 2.78, WHIP 1.17, Ks 170, wins 19

Now Stras from last year:

ERA 3.00, WHIP 1.05, Ks 191, wins 8

If we assume that Strasburg does not get better and that Cueto remains the same, Cueto has a minor advantage in ERA (even though Strasburg's career ERA is better than Cueto's) Strasburg has a significant edge in WHIP and Ks.

Cueto should get a lot more wins, right?

Not so fast. First off, wins are the most difficult stat to predict by a long shot. Pitchers from good teams will obviously tend to get more, but there is too much that goes into the W stat that is outside the pitcher's control. The best pitcher in baseball last year (who by the way pitched for a winning team) received 6 losses or NDs in games where he gave up 1 ER or less.

The Nationals are expected to be one of, if not the best team in the NL, so we should not assume that a healthy Cueto will win more games than Strasburg next year. At best, we can project a toss up there.

In summary, Strasburg has better skills than Cueto now, he is younger, has less injury risk and pitches for a team many experts are picking to win the pennant.

If you choose Cueto you are going against all logic and you will likely regret it for a very long time. Strasburg has been a really good fantasy pitcher and he hasn't even reached his ceiling yet. He has the upside to be the best pitcher in baseball while Cueto has already maximized his potential (and probably even pitched over his head the last 3 years).

It is your team, so do what you must, but understand that there is a reason why everyone here is telling to keep Strasburg and it does go beyond his name.

Good luck.

I suppose you are right about that. Still, I will not be at all surprised to see Cueto outperform Strasburg, who I happen to think is a bit of a head case, though he is obviously a very unique physical talent. I will probably keep Strasburg and perhaps draft Cueto too high.

Thanks to everyone who answered my question and have a Happy New Year!

 

[Brees#1]

Strasburg.

I'm a big Cueto fan, but I would be seriously worried about his obliques/triceps or whatever it was he couldn't fix this year. Also, Stras gets the better home park, and is younger. I agree though, that Cueto is overlooked by most and Strasburg's name might be better than his output... still, you get a name like that because there is that extra something, that only a select few have.

What if he went back to pitching the way he did before he got hurt? I heard he got hurt so much this season because of having to adjust his pitching style.

 

[TKOSpikes]

No, he was hurt because of his strange twisting motion during his pitch. I haven't read anywhere that he is going to change that. And let me be clear anyway, I'd take Strasburg over a fully healthy Cueto, it just so happens the decision is easy with his history. As for Stras' history, Tommy John has been pretty successful to all who return.

 

[tlance]

No, he was hurt because of his strange twisting motion during his pitch. I haven't read anywhere that he is going to change that. And let me be clear anyway, I'd take Strasburg over a fully healthy Cueto, it just so happens the decision is easy with his history. As for Stras' history, Tommy John has been pretty successful to all who return.

Amen.

We aren't talking about Pujols vs. Hosmer here. This is an open and shut case.

If you really prefer Cueto to Strasburg, then keep Stras and trade him to the new Cueto owner for Cueto and a strong bat. The value difference is night and day and someone in your league would be willing to pay for it.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Worth bumping for the sake of prescience?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Worth bumping for the sake of prescience?

Funny thing is though, I would still answer Strasburg to answer the OP question of which pitcher has more value this season... IMO value is defined by how much you can get in a trade... And even in redraft leagues, I think Strasburg would get more in a trade than cueto would...

 

[TDs3nOut]

Funny thing is though, I would still answer Strasburg to answer the OP question of which pitcher has more value this season... IMO value is defined by how much you can get in a trade... And even in redraft leagues, I think Strasburg would get more in a trade than cueto would...

Good point, so long as you can find a trading partner less savvy than I apparently was when I posed the question in the OP!