Best Starting Pitchers of the Last 35 Years

[calsnowskier]

Yeah, basically any way you spin it, Clemens is going to be 1 and Maddux will be 2. Even accounting for PED usage, it's hard for a rational thinker to put anyone above Clemens. Johnson and Pedro are 3/4. That's pretty undebatable. From there, it gets a little murkier. Hell it depends on how you assign "value" to a player. Dwight Gooden is low on the WAR list, but he started out his career with WAR's of 8.3 and 8.9. One of the better two year spans for a pitcher, ever. Would you prefer that, and then 5 more good seasons, over the consistency of Tom Glavine, who never posted a WAR above 5.4? I mean, if the Cubs could develop one right now, there's no way you wouldn't go with Doc.

Timmeh had a similar arc. He has a 7.9 / 7.5 before falling off the cliff. No way does he belong on any of these lists, though. While I do tend to value peaks, you have to have SOME longevity to go along with it. Otherwise you get the opportunities that SHOULD go to others that you end up squandering, thus detracting from your overall value.

Timmeh's career WAR is 22.9. In his 2 big seasons, he had 15.4.

 

[Chewbaccer]

Yeah, basically any way you spin it, Clemens is going to be 1 and Maddux will be 2. Even accounting for PED usage, it's hard for a rational thinker to put anyone above Clemens. Johnson and Pedro are 3/4. That's pretty undebatable. From there, it gets a little murkier. Hell it depends on how you assign "value" to a player. Dwight Gooden is low on the WAR list, but he started out his career with WAR's of 8.3 and 8.9. One of the better two year spans for a pitcher, ever. Would you prefer that, and then 5 more good seasons, over the consistency of Tom Glavine, who never posted a WAR above 5.4? I mean, if the Cubs could develop one right now, there's no way you wouldn't go with Doc.

It's an interesting debate for sure. This day and age where it's really uncommon to see a player stick with one team for as long as Glavine was a Brave(Chipper and Jeter might be the last two HOF position players to play their entire career with one team), most teams would probably prefer a Doc Gooden. But at the same time, 15 years of consistently solid pitching is valuable as well, and as you probably can tell by the bench on my fantasy team, I do have a homer streak in me. @SlinkyRedfoot can go into better detail on that than I can.

 

[calsnowskier]

It's an interesting debate for sure. This day and age where it's really uncommon to see a player stick with one team for as long as Glavine was a Brave(Chipper and Jeter might be the last two HOF position players to play their entire career with one team), most teams would probably prefer a Doc Gooden. But at the same time, 15 years of consistently solid pitching is valuable as well, and as you probably can tell by the bench on my fantasy team, I do have a homer streak in me. @SlinkyRedfoot can go into better detail on that than I can.

While not exactly what is being discussed here, very good point. I wonder if this mentality has anything to do with the increase in TJs over the last few years. Teams are pushing the pitchers harder because they have no incentive not to.

What CLEAR HOF pitchers have had the bulk of their careers in the last 15 years? Maddux, Clemens, Johnson and Pedro overlapped into that period, but made their names prior. Felix and Kershaw MAY buck that trend, but we have seen more guys blow up than make it in that time period (Santana, Lincecum, Verlander, Sebathia, etc)

 

[Chewbaccer]

While not exactly what is being discussed here, very good point. I wonder if this mentality has anything to do with the increase in TJs over the last few years. Teams are pushing the pitchers harder because they have no incentive not to.

What CLEAR HOF pitchers have had the bulk of their careers in the last 15 years? Maddux, Clemens, Johnson and Pedro overlapped into that period, but made their names prior. Felix and Kershaw MAY buck that trend, but we have seen more guys blow up than make it in that time period (Santana, Lincecum, Verlander, Sebathia, etc)

Could be. I don't recall Tommy John surgery being near as coming in the early to mid 2000's as there is now.

Since 2000, I can't think of a pitcher off the top of my head that is a clear Hall of Famer that made his name in the last 15 years. Halladay maybe, but I don't think he's a clear HOFer by any means.

 

[broncosmitty]

Could be. I don't recall Tommy John surgery being near as coming in the early to mid 2000's as there is now.

Since 2000, I can't think of a pitcher off the top of my head that is a clear Hall of Famer that made his name in the last 15 years. Halladay maybe, but I don't think he's a clear HOFer by any means.

Kershaw?

 

[Chewbaccer]

Kershaw?

Well, he does have to meet the 10 year requirement first. Don't wanna count my chickens before they hatch, and he listed Kershaw and King Felix as two that could possibly buck the trend. I was more or less going for retired pitchers or "if they retired today"

 

[Omar 382]

While not exactly what is being discussed here, very good point. I wonder if this mentality has anything to do with the increase in TJs over the last few years. Teams are pushing the pitchers harder because they have no incentive not to.

What CLEAR HOF pitchers have had the bulk of their careers in the last 15 years? Maddux, Clemens, Johnson and Pedro overlapped into that period, but made their names prior. Felix and Kershaw MAY buck that trend, but we have seen more guys blow up than make it in that time period (Santana, Lincecum, Verlander, Sebathia, etc)

I'm not quite sure if I agree. Sure, there haven't been guys who pitch effectively into their late 30s, but then PED usage is (supposedly) down, which would shorten some of the careers of pitchers. I think your "15 year window with 10 years of playing time" is a little arbitrary. I mean, Kershaw is probably the best pitcher we've seen in their primes in the last 15 years. And then you've got guys like Halladay, Oswalt, Lester, Sabathia, Price and Bumgarner.
No one outside of Clayton is close to Clemens or Maddux, that's for sure, but it's not like a total drop off in production.

 

[StanMarsh51]

If we're ignoring PED use, which I'm assuming we are, Roger Clemens is easily the best of the era IMO.

Maddux is the clear number 2 IMO.

He had a great peak in the early 90's, and honestly, John Smoltz's Cy Young should be on Mad Dog's mantle as well, and he had longevity to go with it.

Randy Johnson gets the nod for third.

He was dominant in both leagues, had great longevity and is second on the all time strikeouts list.

4th is Pedro. If we were just using peak years, he'd be number 1, but he didn't have the longevity of the 3 above him, and that puts him 4th on my list.

So, basically my top 4 is the same as the OP's list.

For 5th, I'd jump Glavine over Mussina and Schilling.

I'd pick Kevin Brown (who we know used PEDs) for the '96 Cy, given his 1.89 ERA and leading the league in WHIP), but I'd say Maddux probably was the best choice for the '98 Cy over Glavine.

Regarding Mussina/Schilling/Glavine, Mussina and Schilling didn't have the longevity of Glavine, but they did perform better over their careers than him numbers-wise (and it's not as if Glavine pitching more was the reason many of his numbers were worse). In a lot of ways it's a matter of preference. All 3 should be HOFers imo.

 

[Rex Racer]

Interesting that the common belief is Mussina will never sniff the HOF yet he's #5 on the list.

Mussina can sleep well knowing he is in the Hall of Very Good.

 

[calsnowskier]

I'm not quite sure if I agree. Sure, there haven't been guys who pitch effectively into their late 30s, but then PED usage is (supposedly) down, which would shorten some of the careers of pitchers. I think your "15 year window with 10 years of playing time" is a little arbitrary. I mean, Kershaw is probably the best pitcher we've seen in their primes in the last 15 years. And then you've got guys like Halladay, Oswalt, Lester, Sabathia, Price and Bumgarner.
No one outside of Clayton is close to Clemens or Maddux, that's for sure, but it's not like a total drop off in production.

I never said anything about a 10 year min. Not sure where that came from.

Basically, my point was that besides the big 4, who have we seen with any kind of longevity AND peak that appears to be a clear cut HOFer. Even in the last 35 years, there are really only 4 CLEAR CUT guys. Even Smoltz and Glavine, I think, are borderline guys (not arguing against their inclusion, just stating that they are not elite elite).

Kershaw and King are two guys who look promising, though.

 

[Chewbaccer]

I'd pick Kevin Brown (who we know used PEDs) for the '96 Cy, given his 1.89 ERA and leading the league in WHIP), but I'd say Maddux probably was the best choice for the '98 Cy over Glavine.

Regarding Mussina/Schilling/Glavine, Mussina and Schilling didn't have the longevity of Glavine, but they did perform better over their careers than him numbers-wise (and it's not as if Glavine pitching more was the reason many of his numbers were worse). All 3 should be HOFers imo.

You're right, it was 98 I was thinking, Maddux had a "down" year in 96 with a 2.7 ERA.

And a debate can be made for all 3, and I agree all 3 should be in the HOF, but there is something to be said for a pitcher that can give 20 solid years. And as you know, I am a homer.

 

[Omar 382]

I never said anything about a 10 year min. Not sure where that came from.

Basically, my point was that besides the big 4, who have we seen with any kind of longevity AND peak that appears to be a clear cut HOFer. Even in the last 35 years, there are really only 4 CLEAR CUT guys. Even Smoltz and Glavine, I think, are borderline guys (not arguing against their inclusion, just stating that they are not elite elite).

Kershaw and King are two guys who look promising, though.

Yeah, it's hard for me to say that there is a dearth of pitching superstars with the last ~10 years of Kershaw, and strong support from Greinke, Price, Felix, and Halladay

 

[StanMarsh51]

Could be. I don't recall Tommy John surgery being near as coming in the early to mid 2000's as there is now.

Since 2000, I can't think of a pitcher off the top of my head that is a clear Hall of Famer that made his name in the last 15 years. Halladay maybe, but I don't think he's a clear HOFer by any means.

Halladay's a good debate, because he didn't have great longevity, but he has the peak/prime. He only had 8 'full' seasons (160+ innings), but in 7 of them he was probably a top 3 pitcher in the league, so he made those full seasons count.

I'm on the fence (probably leaning towards yes), but it could really go either way imo..

 

[calsnowskier]

Yeah, it's hard for me to say that there is a dearth of pitching superstars with the last ~10 years of Kershaw, and strong support from Greinke, Price, Felix, and Halladay

Halladay did not last long enough to be a sure-fire guy. I place him in the Glavine/Smoltz class - likely in, not a guaranteed first-ballot guy.

Although his no-no in '10 may be his ticket to bypass the line...

 

[JohnU]

Maddux probably was the best righthander I saw from the 90s.
Randy frickin' Johnson would have scared the nuts off Musial's statue.
Over the past few years, Scherzer has been excellent.
Pedro was extremely good.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Exactly. Same thing when looking at Pettitte and Buehrle. Most people don't want either in the HOF, but this list might somewhat refute that to some people, when you have people like Oswalt, Felix, Hershiser, and Johan Santana lower. Pettitte will always be hurt by PED linkage and pitching in two hitter's parks in a hitter's era. I still like him and his 83 FIP- enough to cast a vote for him.

I can't see Pettitte as a HOFer...he was consistently very solid/pretty good, but only had 2-3 great years. Ourside of those seasons 2-3 seasons, his career was filled with many 110 ERA+, 1.3 WHIP seasons, and I don't think that's good enough.

 

[Chewbaccer]

Halladay did not last long enough to be a sure-fire guy. I place him in the Glavine/Smoltz class - likely in, not a guaranteed first-ballot guy.

Although his no-no in '10 may be his ticket to bypass the line...

Glavine and Smoltz each had careers that lasted over 20 years. If longevity is the issue, it really doesn't make sense for Halladay to be in the same class as Glavine or Smoltz.

Plus Glavine and Smoltz were both first round HOFers(their careers might not have warranted first ballot induction, but it was pretty well a given it was gonna happen with Glavine having 300 wins and Smoltz having 200 wins and 150 saves to go with 3000k's)

 

[calsnowskier]

Glavine and Smoltz each had careers that lasted over 20 years. If longevity is the issue, it really doesn't make sense for Halladay to be in the same class as Glavine or Smoltz.

Plus Glavine and Smoltz were both first round HOFers(their careers might not have warranted first ballot induction, but it was pretty well a given it was gonna happen with Glavine having 300 wins and Smoltz having 200 wins and 150 saves to go with 3000k's)

Fair enough. I was comparing his stature to where I place Glavine and Smoltz, not where they have been viewed in the industry as a whole.

My bad.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Exactly. Same thing when looking at Pettitte and Buehrle. Most people don't want either in the HOF, but this list might somewhat refute that to some people, when you have people like Oswalt, Felix, Hershiser, and Johan Santana lower. Pettitte will always be hurt by PED linkage and pitching in two hitter's parks in a hitter's era. I still like him and his 83 FIP- enough to cast a vote for him.

Buehrle on the other hand is too much quantity against too little quality (and even not enough quantity. I mean if we're talking about potential quantity HOFers, we're looking at Moyer, Murphy, and Tommy John- and none of those guys should be in the HOF). This is where I think simply looking at the WARs of a number of players and saying "yeah he's a HOFer, and he's not" is dangerous. Most people would take the careers of just about anyone below Buehrle's WAR over Buehrle himself, except probably for Moyer.

Up until the move to new Yankee Stadium in 2009 Pettitte's parks look incredibly neutral, no?

 

[Omar 382]

Up until the move to new Yankee Stadium in 2009 Pettitte's parks look incredibly neutral, no?

Yeah, you're right. I was just assuming it was better for hitters after they moved the fences in, when Berra and McDougald had to hit the ball a mile to left field to get a home run. But Yankee Stadium was pretty neutral.