BCS - Essentially got it right?

[Wazmankg]

16 team playoff? Sure thing. Just cut the regular season to 10 games, and then find the sponsors who are going to put up enough money to make sure none of the teams lose money.

Why would you have to cut the season ? Every one of those 16 teams already plays in a bowl game so that covers the first round. That leaves 8 teams for 3 more rounds. 8 teams would play an extra game, 4 would play 2 more and 2 would play 3, the 3rd being the National Championship game. Believe me there would be plenty of fan interest and sponsor dollars to support that. You could even use some of the existing bowl games and sites.

 

[TonyTheGator]

Why would you have to cut the season ? Every one of those 16 teams already plays in a bowl game so that covers the first round. That leaves 8 teams for 3 more rounds. 8 teams would play an extra game, 4 would play 2 more and 2 would play 3, the 3rd being the National Championship game. Believe me there would be plenty of fan interest and sponsor dollars to support that. You could even use some of the existing bowl games and sites.

Dude! Wake up. Most fans can't afford to go to four f-ing playoff games, and teams lose money, right now, playing in BCS games.

 

[Codaxx]

Please elaborate on these "advanced" rankings. Any team that gives up 24 or more points in 10 of it's 13 games and over 33 points in 4 games is not "quite high" in any defensive rankings, saying otherwise is just trying to polish a turd and makes any point you are trying to make sound idiotic.

There are plenty of legit reasons you can make for Okie Jr'd inclusion, but the play of their defense is not one of them.

advanced stats are advanced, they are not for you

 

[Rolltide94]

advanced stats are advanced, they are not for you

LOL, apparently they are so advanced you can't even explain them. I feel pretty comfortable that I have the cognitive abilities to comprehend any statistical analysis you can bring, even the garbage theory you are likely to pull out to explain this one.

Again, no amount of spin is going to make 2011 Okie Jr into a good defense. You don't see Ducks on here bragging up Oregon's 2010 D do you? Although based on your reasoning maybe they should be, after all they shut out 2 opponents that year and held 5 more under 20 points...all while running more plays with a quicker scoring offense than Okie Jr could have a wet dream about.

Unless of course by "ranked quite high" you meant that their D was ranked in the 70's, in which case by all means carry on.

 

[Codaxx]

LOL, apparently they are so advanced you can't even explain them. I feel pretty comfortable that I have the cognitive abilities to comprehend any statistical analysis you can bring, even the garbage theory you are likely to pull out to explain this one.

Again, no amount of spin is going to make 2011 Okie Jr into a good defense. You don't see Ducks on here bragging up Oregon's 2010 D do you? Although based on your reasoning maybe they should be, after all they shut out 2 opponents that year and held 5 more under 20 points...all while running more plays with a quicker scoring offense than Okie Jr could have a wet dream about.

Unless of course by "ranked quite high" you meant that their D was ranked in the 70's, in which case by all means carry on.

DFEI DFEI
Rk Team FBS
Rec FEI
Rk DE DE
Rk FD FD
Rk AY AY
Rk Ex Ex
Rk Me Me
Rk Va Va
Rk DSOS Rk -.780 1 Alabama 11-1 3 -.952 1 .403 1 .185 1 .024 1 .073 2 .113 1 .189 78 -.747 2 LSU 12-1 1 -.672 2 .588 12 .297 2 .053 4 .130 57 .213 5 .057 20 -.728 3 Oklahoma State 12-1 2 -.382 11 .675 66 .418 42 .115 48 .191 111 .349 44 .024 3

 

[Codaxx]

Rk Offense Def.
S&P+ Play
Eff. Rk Std.
Downs
S&P+
Rk Pass.
Downs
S&P+ Rk Rushing
S&P+ Rk Passing
S&P+ Rk Drive
Eff. Rk DNP
Rk 1 Alabama 164.6 147.8 1 148.2 1 147.5 3 159.6 1 143.7 4 168.8 2 -1.933 2 2 Oregon 141.2 119.1 17 110.8 26 149.1 2 110.5 32 127.2 13 194.5 1 -2.083 1 3 Florida State 139.6 136.0 3 124.8 7 137.0 9 115.6 20 144.3 3 149.9 3 -1.852 3 4 Florida 140.5 135.2 4 136.6 3 141.0 4 139.3 3 138.5 5 144.2 6 -1.009 31 5 Michigan State 137.2 137.4 2 146.4 2 126.5 16 139.9 2 145.3 1 133.6 12 -0.696 47 6 South Carolina 127.8 122.4 12 124.2 8 127.5 15 122.5 12 130.2 10 142.8 7 -1.267 12 7 LSU 132.5 131.6 5 123.5 9 155.3 1 134.0 5 136.0 7 133.2 13 -0.841 37 8 Notre Dame 127.4 121.4 14 120.7 13 126.4 17 116.8 17 127.8 12 142.0 8 -1.337 10 9 Texas A&M 125.5 124.8 10 119.4 15 138.5 6 126.7 8 122.6 17 137.3 9 -1.494 4 10 Utah State 129.7 130.5 7 120.3 14 133.3 11 111.9 30 138.0 6 127.8 17 -1.455 5 11 Stanford 124.5 127.5 8 129.5 4 133.1 12 127.7 7 135.3 8 129.5 16 -0.695 48 12 Oklahoma State 122.6 110.5 28 101.6 58 137.5 8 112.9 26 112.6 27 146.3 4 -1.447 6

 

[Rolltide94]

DFEI DFEI
Rk Team FBS
Rec FEI
Rk DE DE
Rk FD FD
Rk AY AY
Rk Ex Ex
Rk Me Me
Rk Va Va
Rk DSOS Rk -.780 1 Alabama 11-1 3 -.952 1 .403 1 .185 1 .024 1 .073 2 .113 1 .189 78 -.747 2 LSU 12-1 1 -.672 2 .588 12 .297 2 .053 4 .130 57 .213 5 .057 20 -.728 3 Oklahoma State 12-1 2 -.382 11 .675 66 .418 42 .115 48 .191 111 .349 44 .024 3

Man, I thought Fremeau and Connelly did a poor job of presenting their information, you've managed to take it to a whole new level. Just posting a bunch of data isn't an argument, hell it isn't even information, it's just data.

I will preface what I am about to say by noting that I think Fremeau's index works much better for his pro analysis, mostly because the data is comparable...fewer teams, more interaction between teams, etc...

Here's the problem I have with his FEI...In every category that requires raw data, Ok St. finishes no better than 42nd...66th in First Down Rate, 42nd in Available Yards, 111th in Methodical Drives, 48th in Explosive Drives. By contrast, in 2011 It is only when you get into Brian's subjective data or hidden analysis that Oklahoma State jumps up, which I can only assume is due to turnover margin, which I would consider a statistical anomaly and not an indicator. Brian himself has said that "turnover margin can make a defense appear to play better than it really had in a game."

It seems like a chicken or egg argument. In order to take FEI at face value it seems like I have to assume that every Big 12 offense was good. Something I'm not prepared to do, because there isn't enough inter-conference play.

Sorry, I'm just not keen on regression analysis where some of the variables are fuzzy.

It works both ways though. According to Fremeau, Alabama's Offense was better than Oklahoma State in 2011, I find that equally without merit.

Again, I'm not saying that Oklahoma State did not deserve a title shot, but trying to tell me they had the 3rd best defense in the country is a joke.

 

[Codaxx]

Man, I thought Fremeau and Connelly did a poor job of presenting their information, you've managed to take it to a whole new level. Just posting a bunch of data isn't an argument, hell it isn't even information, it's just data.

I will preface what I am about to say by noting that I think Fremeau's index works much better for his pro analysis, mostly because the data is comparable...fewer teams, more interaction between teams, etc...

Here's the problem I have with his FEI...In every category that requires raw data, Ok St. finishes no better than 42nd...66th in First Down Rate, 42nd in Available Yards, 111th in Methodical Drives, 48th in Explosive Drives. By contrast, in 2011 It is only when you get into Brian's subjective data or hidden analysis that Oklahoma State jumps up, which I can only assume is due to turnover margin, which I would consider a statistical anomaly and not an indicator. Brian himself has said that "turnover margin can make a defense appear to play better than it really had in a game."

It seems like a chicken or egg argument. In order to take FEI at face value it seems like I have to assume that every Big 12 offense was good. Something I'm not prepared to do, because there isn't enough inter-conference play.

Sorry, I'm just not keen on regression analysis where some of the variables are fuzzy.

It works both ways though. According to Fremeau, Alabama's Offense was better than Oklahoma State in 2011, I find that equally without merit.

Again, I'm not saying that Oklahoma State did not deserve a title shot, but trying to tell me they had the 3rd best defense in the country is a joke.

I will agree it is much better for NFL. College is a much harder game to collect applicable stats. do remember FEI also adjusts for "garbage time", that will boost a defenses stats considerably. i have not looked into it, but i would guess that would help high scoring , fast paced teams more. I actually have always thought Bama's offense was greatly under-appreciated. Raw stats have OSU at 26 in pts per play and 36th per possession. Adjusted for SOS both come in around 20, which i believe is a reasonable number. Bama offense came in #1 and #2 adjusted and low teens unadjusted. I happen to think pts per possession is one of the better stats, as it values all scoring drives equally,uneffected by pace and style. While i do not think #3 is correct nor the 40s that you indicated, the answer lies somewhere in between. That would be much higher than the general perception of OSU's defense that yr.

 

[JDM]

Your formula is just a formula to crown an end of season tournament champ.

We want to find a season champ... so we need a formula that really respects every game in the regular season and also gives a chance for only the truly deserving teams to prove they are the champ on the field.

Baseball has such a system... and I have been lobbying for a 4-team playoff since 2000/20001. Anyone here can verify the veracity of this.

A 4-team playoff respects every game of the regular season, lets in teams that may have a legit argument as to being the best of the season, and doesn't let in poseur teams that don't.

8 or 12 are the only acceptable numbers for college football, with 8 being ideal. 4 isn't near enough with how the landscape of the sport is.

 

[Rolltide94]

I will agree it is much better for NFL. College is a much harder game to collect applicable stats. do remember FEI also adjusts for "garbage time", that will boost a defenses stats considerably. i have not looked into it, but i would guess that would help high scoring , fast paced teams more. I actually have always thought Bama's offense was greatly under-appreciated. Raw stats have OSU at 26 in pts per play and 36th per possession. Adjusted for SOS both come in around 20, which i believe is a reasonable number. Bama offense came in #1 and #2 adjusted and low teens unadjusted. I happen to think pts per possession is one of the better stats, as it values all scoring drives equally,uneffected by pace and style. While i do not think #3 is correct nor the 40s that you indicated, the answer lies somewhere in between. That would be much higher than the general perception of OSU's defense that yr.

Ok, we can both agree on all of that. I agree that OSU's defense was better than the general perception, and I will concede that much of that is due, like Oregon or Spurrier's Florida, to the fact that they spend a disproportionate amount of time on the field....Not #3 and not #45 either, but somewhere in between.

From my perspective Alabama's offense is always going to be somewhat limited from a statistical standpoint by the play calling. Alabama's system is not geared around making plays as much as it's about not making negative plays. Don't make mistakes and count of the defense to give you favorable field position.

 

[ElTexan]

8 or 12 are the only acceptable numbers for college football, with 8 being ideal. 4 isn't near enough with how the landscape of the sport is.

Give me the list of teams in the BCS era that ended the season ranked #5 in the BCS that IYO had a legit claim to being the best team in CFB that year.

 

[Codaxx]

Ok, we can both agree on all of that. I agree that OSU's defense was better than the general perception, and I will concede that much of that is due, like Oregon or Spurrier's Florida, to the fact that they spend a disproportionate amount of time on the field....Not #3 and not #45 either, but somewhere in between.

From my perspective Alabama's offense is always going to be somewhat limited from a statistical standpoint by the play calling. Alabama's system is not geared around making plays as much as it's about not making negative plays. Don't make mistakes and count of the defense to give you favorable field position.

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I believe it is more about pace. Bama once again finished top 10 in pts per possession last yr. Basically they were scored the 7th most pts per possession. They were 116th in plays run and 11th in TOP. They just hold on to the ball and grind it. In 2011 OSU's TOP was 115th (26 min) and Bama was 12th (33 minutes).OSU defense played an extra 117 minutes, which would be an extra 4.3 games at Bama's pace.

 

[Codaxx]

Give me the list of teams in the BCS era that ended the season ranked #5 in the BCS that IYO had a legit claim to being the best team in CFB that year.

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I know the yr that LSU won 6 teams finished inthe top 10 with 2 or less losses. OUr idea of "claim" can be skewed. There were many times that people have felt that another team was playign better football at the end of the yr than #1. We discount them at times, because of an extra loss.