Aussie Open Thread

[bksballer89]

Youzhny is a good challenge for Rafa for round 1....not your typical first round opponent as the 3 seed.

 

[cezero]

I've never understood how Russell never got more power. I get that he is pretty short, but the guy is ripped. I respect his heart, but I always wonder how he's never gotten more.

The real enigma there is Goffin. The guy looks unathletic as hell, but his strokes were blessed from the gods. If he was 6'3 with a stronger core, I'm convinced Goffin would be a top 5 player. His backhand is so beautiful.

groundstroke speed is more about shoulder and elbow flexibility, core/leg strength, and timing more than anything. Russell's arms look ripped and all, but his legs are gigantic. Even with all the work he's put in, it looks like it's just never been quite enough to make up for lacking the innate flexibility and timing that the guys with all of the racket head speed get.

fed and nole are both good examples. they don't have huge muscles, but their joint flexibility is crazy, so they can accelerate through the ball better than we mere mortals. rafa is one of the few players where big biceps = big groundstrokes, but that's because he hits the ball so fucking weird.

 

[nuraman00]

I can't be the only one who is sad that Melbourne made a new commercial, can I? The "I wanna know" commercial was a signature part of the event. I can still picture the hot girl biting a flower as I type this.

Haven't seen the new commercial.

They used the previous for for the previous 3-4 years at least.

 

[nuraman00]

Nadal-Youzhny just underway, 2-all in the 1st.

 

[nuraman00]

his best chance to win any tournament will always be lightning fast courts, so grass or carpet is his best bet.

when it comes to majors, that would be Wimbledon, and i marvel that he even made a final there last year. good for him.

I hear what you're saying.

The one thing I fear for FED at Wimbledon, is that he's more susceptible to big servers, and not being able to return them.

At least at the AO, he can get the point started, against a big server.

To some extent, I feel he's had more dangerous matches at Wimbledon since 2003, than the AO. Especially against lesser ranked players.

 

[bksballer89]

This first round match has not been as easy as Murray would like

 

[nuraman00]

I think I've seen this Melbourne commercial before. I think they had two Melbourne commercials, the past 1-2 years.

 

[cezero]

I hear what you're saying.

The one thing I fear for FED at Wimbledon, is that he's more susceptible to big servers, and not being able to return them.

At least at the AO, he can get the point started, against a big server.

To some extent, I feel he's had more dangerous matches at Wimbledon since 2003, than the AO. Especially against lesser ranked players.

number of major finals on any hard court in the past 4 years: ZERO
number of wimbledon finals in the past 4 years: TWO (including a win)

go back to '03 as you did with me.

since '03, beginning the SF run in Australia that some of you find so important, he's won 7 Wimbledons and 4 Aussie Opens.

there is no debate about this.

"feelings" are nice and all, but facts destroy them every time.

 

[nuraman00]

When did Murray switch from Adidas to Under Armour?

 

[bksballer89]

When did Murray switch from Adidas to Under Armour?

Former Wimbledon champion Andy Murray leaves Adidas for Under Armour in £15m deal | Tennis News | ESPN.co.uk

 

[cezero]

i'd do the same for that kind of money, lol

 

[Smart]

groundstroke speed is more about shoulder and elbow flexibility, core/leg strength, and timing more than anything. Russell's arms look ripped and all, but his legs are gigantic. Even with all the work he's put in, it looks like it's just never been quite enough to make up for lacking the innate flexibility and timing that the guys with all of the racket head speed get.

fed and nole are both good examples. they don't have huge muscles, but their joint flexibility is crazy, so they can accelerate through the ball better than we mere mortals. rafa is one of the few players where big biceps = big groundstrokes, but that's because he hits the ball so fucking weird.

The one thing I'd expect is more topspin. I've seen him a few times at Challenger matches, and his ball just sort of floats there. It comes off his racquet very well, but it doesn't dip like some of the top players I've seen.

Speaking of which, Nadal looks great. He didn't look like this in Doha, even when he was rolling in the first set.

 

[bksballer89]

Yeah Rafa is going to make quick work out of Youzhny

 

[cezero]

The one thing I'd expect is more topspin. I've seen him a few times at Challenger matches, and his ball just sort of floats there. It comes off his racquet very well, but it doesn't dip like some of the top players I've seen.

Speaking of which, Nadal looks great. He didn't look like this in Doha, even when he was rolling in the first set.

russell's always hit a flatter ball, yeah. i'm watching right now, and he plays with a pretty traditional FH grip, not very western like you need to get a lot of topspin like rafa or even fed.

and yeah, nadal looks nifty as always when he's nice and rested.

 

[cezero]

punk Tomic behind early in the first set

would love to see him lose, but he's been solid early this season, so he'll probably find a way

 

[Hs0022]

and the ridiculously overrated ivanovic is about to go out to a nobody ranked nearly 150. not over yet, but 2 points away.

Sadly the WTA could use the glam factor from Ivsnovic.

 

[cezero]

russell was down and out in the 3rd set, but came back and took it!

 

[nuraman00]

number of major finals on any hard court in the past 4 years: ZERO
number of wimbledon finals in the past 4 years: TWO (including a win)

go back to '03 as you did with me.

since '03, beginning the SF run in Australia that some of you find so important, he's won 7 Wimbledons and 4 Aussie Opens.

there is no debate about this.

"feelings" are nice and all, but facts destroy them every time.

What I was saying was that he's had more matches where he was closer to losing, especially to lower ranked players, at Wimbledon, than the AO. He could have still won those matches, but been in danger of losing them.

It's a question as to how comfortably he wins matches, and how easily he can break his opponents, especially in recent years.


Dangerous AO matches:

2005 Safin: L 7-5, 4-6, 7-5, 6-7(6), 7-9

2006 Haas W 6-4, 6-0, 3-6, 4-6, 6-2

2006 Davydenko W 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(7), 7-6(5)

2008 Tipsarevic W 6-7(5), 7-6(1), 5-7, 6-1, 10-8

2008 Djokovic L 5-7, 3-6, 6-7(5)

2009 Berdych W 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4, 6-2

2009 Nadal L 5-7, 6-3, 6-7(3), 6-3, 2-6

2011 Simon W 6-2, 6-3, 4-6, 4-6, 6-3

2011 Djokovic L 6-7(3), 5-7, 4-6

2012 Nadal L 7-6(5), 2-6, 6-7(5), 4-6

2013 Tsonga W 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-3

2013 Murray L 4-6, 7-6(5), 3-6, 7-6(2), 2-6

2014 Nadal L 6-7(4), 3-6, 3-6


Dangerous Wimbledon matches:

2007 Nadal W 7-6(7), 4-6, 7-6(3), 2-6, 6-2

2010 Falla W 5-7, 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(1), 6-0

2010 Bozoljac W 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(5)

2010 Berdych L 4-6, 6-3, 1-6, 4-6

2011 Tsonga L 6-3, 7-6(3), 4-6, 4-6, 4-6

2012 Benneteau W 4-6, 6-7(3), 6-2, 7-6(6), 6-1

2013 Stakhovsky L 7-6(5), 6-7(5), 5-7, 6-7(5)

2014 Djokovic L 7-6(7), 4-6, 6-7(4), 7-5, 4-6



Looking at these, most of the ones where he struggled, or didn't win easily, or lost, at the AO, were against the top players. Except for Tipsarevic in 2008. Berdych in 2009 also hadn't gone as deep in majors consistently as he'd do from 2010 and onward. He had a ranking of 21 at the time, but it was still surprising that FED was tested as much as he was at the 2009 AO against him.

At Wimbledon, you see more lower ranked players push him, like Falla, Bozoljac, Stakhovsky.

And Benneteau, while ranked 32 in 2012 Wimbledon, which is nice, he's not known for going deep in majors, or even getting to the 4th round or 2nd week. And he's had a lot of 1st round losses in his career.

Then throw in the matches against better players like Berdych in 2010 Wimbledon, and Tsonga in 2011, and he really struggled breaking them. That wouldn't happen at the AO, hence he wouldn't be in as much danger.

So far at the AO, when facing a much lower ranked player, he wins more easily.

It's not about whether he wins the title, it's about how easily does he get through a draw, match by match. And in more recent years, he's struggled against lesser ranked opponents at Wimbledon, while beating them more easily at the AO.

 

[nuraman00]

Former Wimbledon champion Andy Murray leaves Adidas for Under Armour in £15m deal | Tennis News | ESPN.co.uk

Thanks, bksballer89!

 

[nuraman00]

groundstroke speed is more about shoulder and elbow flexibility, core/leg strength, and timing more than anything. Russell's arms look ripped and all, but his legs are gigantic. Even with all the work he's put in, it looks like it's just never been quite enough to make up for lacking the innate flexibility and timing that the guys with all of the racket head speed get.

fed and nole are both good examples. they don't have huge muscles, but their joint flexibility is crazy, so they can accelerate through the ball better than we mere mortals. rafa is one of the few players where big biceps = big groundstrokes, but that's because he hits the ball so fucking weird.

Good post.