Aug 1 Pirates

[sychmd]

After the trade deadline (and into 2014), i am excited about our team.

SP1 = burnett
SP2 = wandy
SP3 = liriano
SP4 = locke
SP5 = cole

that is 3 lefties and guys who can make bats miss;
in waiting: morton, karstens, gomez, oliver (good depth), with mcP possible

Lineup:
marte
tabata/snider
cutch
jones/sanchez
martin
alvarez
walker
mercer

Bench:
inge
snider
sahchez
mcK
presley or darnaud(need some speed)

BP:
grilli
melancon
wilson
gomez
morris
hughes
black
backups: karstens, welker, watson, stolmy

i think tabata might be getting it and solve our OF situation and snider will be a good 3/4th OF for us.

our team doesnt have any weak points if we continue to grow and share the load.

 

[Etrius24]

Sychmd,

Do you really think Morton will not find his way back to the rotation by August? I have to think that Morton gets a shot at the rotation before Cole ever would...

I agree Black get called up to help in the pen... And I wonder if they might Ease Cole into this by putting him in the pen when they call him up...Let him pitch there with less pressure....And then give him a shot at the rotation in spring training.

I WOULD LOVE to see Tabata start to hit consistently.. Having him hit above .300 and to start driving the ball would be great!... It would be lovely to have 4 useful outfielders all of a sudden.. But the offense would still have weaknesses. As much as I keep wanting Pedro to play better, be more consistent and to not give away chunks of at bats... He struggles at times.. and looks terrible... This is important because if this team has Marte, Snider and Tabata playing on it...That is 3 outfielders that do not have much homerun pop.. Marte is okay.. but we cannot expect any of these guys to hit 30 homeruns. So if Pedro cannot consistently hit for power and be more consistent just hitting the baseball overall... This lineup is seriously lacking in Power... Jones is a decent bat.. But he is by no means a slugger for a first baseman. Martin has been playing great early...I do not expect him to have a OPS of .900 for the season... Ditto for Sanchez. This leaves McCutchen as the only power hitter on the team that is above average in terms of homerun power for their position.

I guess the hope is that we keep getting timely hitting from a different guy every night and the wins keep coming.

 

[thecrow124]

Sychmd,

Do you really think Morton will not find his way back to the rotation by August? I have to think that Morton gets a shot at the rotation before Cole ever would...

I agree Black get called up to help in the pen... And I wonder if they might Ease Cole into this by putting him in the pen when they call him up...Let him pitch there with less pressure....And then give him a shot at the rotation in spring training.

I WOULD LOVE to see Tabata start to hit consistently.. Having him hit above .300 and to start driving the ball would be great!... It would be lovely to have 4 useful outfielders all of a sudden.. But the offense would still have weaknesses. As much as I keep wanting Pedro to play better, be more consistent and to not give away chunks of at bats... He struggles at times.. and looks terrible... This is important because if this team has Marte, Snider and Tabata playing on it...That is 3 outfielders that do not have much homerun pop.. Marte is okay.. but we cannot expect any of these guys to hit 30 homeruns. So if Pedro cannot consistently hit for power and be more consistent just hitting the baseball overall... This lineup is seriously lacking in Power... Jones is a decent bat.. But he is by no means a slugger for a first baseman. Martin has been playing great early...I do not expect him to have a OPS of .900 for the season... Ditto for Sanchez. This leaves McCutchen as the only power hitter on the team that is above average in terms of homerun power for their position.

I guess the hope is that we keep getting timely hitting from a different guy every night and the wins keep coming.

Jones is in a platoon at 1B with Sanchez. If Jones ends the year with 20 and Sanchez ends the year with 8 HR, that is pretty good production from 1B. I expect each to end the year with more than the number I just wrote, so power production from first base isn't much of a concern.

 

[Etrius24]

Crow

Yes there is a platoon at first.. but Jones is also capable of playing in the outfield.. I know right now with Tabata and Snider both healthy and swinging the bat decently...That there is not a lot of room to put Jones out there... But I do not expect all 4 outfielders to all be healthy and productive all season long... I do expect to see Jones play some outfield from here on out.

And even in a platoon ( which I personally am okay with ) it means it takes the Pirates two bats to equal the production another team is getting from one bat at first base.

Jones has what 103 at bats so far.. 21 of them have come as an outfielder...So that is roughly 20% of his playing time... I suspect that it might pan out something like this the rest of the way... Unless Tabata, Snider, Marte and McCutchen all stay really healthy from here on out.

It is also worth noting that Jones hits better as an outfielder. Over 100 points worth of OPS.. He has a OPS of .937 as an outfielder This season. He hit better as an outfielder last season also! 61 points worth! In less at bats he hit more homeruns. 14 homeruns as an outfielder and 13 as a first baseman. Two years ago his OPS was 75 points higher as an outfielder compared to when he played first base... There is enough data here to notice a definite difference when Jones is hitting as an outfielder compared to him hitting as a first baseman.

I guess we could look into the defensive metrics and look at snider or Tabata and see if Jones bat is good enough to make his glove playable over Tabata or Snider in the outfield.

From 2010 through 2012 ( three seasons ) Jones was 110 points of OPS better as an outfielder.

I think there is a really strong argument to be made that Jones needs to be playing in the outfield Mostly and in a platoon with Tabata

As much as I like Snider, Today his bat does not compare to Jones' the extra 100+ points of OPS we will get out of Jones bat as an outfielder makes it an easy decision.

Which was why in the offseason I felt like ( and still do today ) that the biggest need for this team was a legit 25-30 homerun bat to play first base.

Sure we can plug Jones in at first..See his offensive numbers suffer because of it and then play 2 lesser bats in the outfield in Tabata and Snider... But again we have a platoon in the outfield where neither guy is really strong offensively...and it stifles the offensive production of Jones... I know sometimes you have to work the lineup around what you have... but a half decent stick for first base so that Jones could go to the outfield would really make this offense legit. I hoped that they would ink Hafner in the offseason and He could platoon with Gabby... Reasonable price. Gabby and hafner could combine for 30 homeruns.. and Jones would be free to play in the outfield and tabata could be the 4th outfielder and Snider maybe a bench player?

This lineup is just OK offensively... 9th in the NL in OPS. 9th in the NL in runs scored. Just okay... nothing special.

I know there was a time last season when the offense was truly anemic...So by comparison to that we should all be happy! But I think we all want the Pirates to be in the post season and for that to happen the offense needs to be legit.

We cannot expect to win all of our games by 1 or 2 runs and for Melancon and Grilli to be near perfect all season long for us.

 

[Darkstone42]

I cannot in good faith buy that the Jones splits between first base and outfield should dictate where we play him. The correlation is coincidence, no matter how strong, since there is no possible affect between where Jones plays in the field and how he hits.

Tabata and Snider are both much better defensively than Jones in the outfield. (He's actually kind of a mess out there, to be honest.) The platoons are what they should be, in my opinion, as long as all four guys are contributing in their respective roles (and they are).

 

[sychmd]

darkstone,
just thinking morton might take a little longer to work things out and not really settle in. before his injury, for a stretch he was magical, but not really an innings eater, then he had the stretch just before his injury with lots of nibbling and much inconsistency and couldnt get lefties out.
i hope he recaptures it all, but realistically dont see it happening till next year. does that mean pen as long reliever or extended rehab assignments, ????????
cole is stretched out and eager to prove himself and contract especially since others in draft class are arriving ahead of him.

but i was cautiously putting him 5. i do think morton gets a shot before him, but somewhere in mid june or that magical super 2 date, cole gets his shot.

 

[thecrow124]

Crow

Yes there is a platoon at first.. but Jones is also capable of playing in the outfield.. I know right now with Tabata and Snider both healthy and swinging the bat decently...That there is not a lot of room to put Jones out there... But I do not expect all 4 outfielders to all be healthy and productive all season long... I do expect to see Jones play some outfield from here on out.

And even in a platoon ( which I personally am okay with ) it means it takes the Pirates two bats to equal the production another team is getting from one bat at first base.

Jones has what 103 at bats so far.. 21 of them have come as an outfielder...So that is roughly 20% of his playing time... I suspect that it might pan out something like this the rest of the way... Unless Tabata, Snider, Marte and McCutchen all stay really healthy from here on out.

It is also worth noting that Jones hits better as an outfielder. Over 100 points worth of OPS.. He has a OPS of .937 as an outfielder This season. He hit better as an outfielder last season also! 61 points worth! In less at bats he hit more homeruns. 14 homeruns as an outfielder and 13 as a first baseman. Two years ago his OPS was 75 points higher as an outfielder compared to when he played first base... There is enough data here to notice a definite difference when Jones is hitting as an outfielder compared to him hitting as a first baseman.

I guess we could look into the defensive metrics and look at snider or Tabata and see if Jones bat is good enough to make his glove playable over Tabata or Snider in the outfield.

From 2010 through 2012 ( three seasons ) Jones was 110 points of OPS better as an outfielder.

I think there is a really strong argument to be made that Jones needs to be playing in the outfield Mostly and in a platoon with Tabata

As much as I like Snider, Today his bat does not compare to Jones' the extra 100+ points of OPS we will get out of Jones bat as an outfielder makes it an easy decision.

Which was why in the offseason I felt like ( and still do today ) that the biggest need for this team was a legit 25-30 homerun bat to play first base.

Sure we can plug Jones in at first..See his offensive numbers suffer because of it and then play 2 lesser bats in the outfield in Tabata and Snider... But again we have a platoon in the outfield where neither guy is really strong offensively...and it stifles the offensive production of Jones... I know sometimes you have to work the lineup around what you have... but a half decent stick for first base so that Jones could go to the outfield would really make this offense legit. I hoped that they would ink Hafner in the offseason and He could platoon with Gabby... Reasonable price. Gabby and hafner could combine for 30 homeruns.. and Jones would be free to play in the outfield and tabata could be the 4th outfielder and Snider maybe a bench player?

This lineup is just OK offensively... 9th in the NL in OPS. 9th in the NL in runs scored. Just okay... nothing special.

I know there was a time last season when the offense was truly anemic...So by comparison to that we should all be happy! But I think we all want the Pirates to be in the post season and for that to happen the offense needs to be legit.

We cannot expect to win all of our games by 1 or 2 runs and for Melancon and Grilli to be near perfect all season long for us.

Regardless of any of this Jones is in fact in a platoon at 1B and really isn't in line to play much in the outfield if both Tabata and Snider are hitting.

Look at how the team is constructed, with the exception of Alvarez and Walker they are strong defensively at every position. That is the way the team was built and it is the way they will either win or lose games. There will be a lot of close games which is why the strong bullpen is there and will continue to be overused. We are built similar to the 80's Cardinal teams.

I would like to see a lot of the same things you would like to see, but those are just not part of the way the team is constructed.

 

[Etrius24]

Crow

I agree... I guess it is just frustrating to watch the team sometimes.. It was very frustrating for me this offseason seeing Hafner out there dirt cheap with no job and we did not reach out to the guy.. I was ready to pull my hair out.

I see the way the team is built and I see the writing on the wall... But it does make me ask why sometimes.

 

[Etrius24]

Darkstone

When you are looking at numbers from 4 consecutive seasons and they all say the same thing...it cannot easily be dismissed as a coincidence.. Some players hit better when they leadoff or if they play a certain position in the field... Such is the case with Jones.

I do not believe in the myth of the clutch hitter...But looking at the amount of data we have with Jones I do believe it matters where he plays in the field.

If this was 100 at bats over the course of 1 season that would be one thing.. This is 4 years worth of at bats...

 

[ramburgh]

Trade Deadline

After the trade deadline (and into 2014), i am excited about our team.

Burnett, Liriano, Locke, Cole, Rodriguez/Morton

As mentioned before - I really hope the Pirates go after one major piece instead of a bunch of spare parts. I would love for that to be Jimmy Rollins because he fits a need at shortstop, leadoff and is affordable with a contract of $11M this year and the following two years. By the end, he could possibly help bring Hanson into the mix. The Phillies need to unload some salary and get younger and it looks like they can finally build around Domonic Brown, Pettibone, etc.

Lineup: Rollins, Marte, McCutchen, Jones/Sanchez, Alvarez, Walker, Martin, Snider/Tabata/Presley
Bench: Mercer, Barmes, Inge, McKenry, G. Sanchez, Tabata, Presley
BP: Grilli, Melancon, Wilson, Reid, Morris, Watson, Mazzaro, Gomez, Hughes

That is more than 25, but I am sure there will be injuries. I think it is time to trade Tabata or Presley and some bullpen/lower level pitching depth. I would also start to think about bringing Tony Sanchez up and sending McKenry down (does he have options?), trading or releasing him. If the Pirates trade for a shortstop they will either have to send Mercer down or release Barmes and his salary. There is the possibility that some team will be desperate (injury) for a shortstop and trade for Barmes.

 

[sychmd]

i live in philly and they hate rollins as the leadoff guy,
stupid atbats,
always trying to pull the ball, and many deep flyball outs.
good D still at SS.
many times of no hustle and crappy attitude. charlie manuel is the biggest players coach in the league and he has had to sit rollins because of the significant lack of hustle.

i agree, we need to get a major piece and not just tinker with minor upgrades.
we have pieces to trade, our scouts just need to know their stuff as to who is maxing out in our system and can trade when they are at their peak and who still has room to flourish and we should keep.
same mentality when pursuing options as well.we cant really trade for someone to help us just this year, we need a piece that will help for the next 3-4 years, as a trade will require us giving up some promising talent.

 

[HammerDown]

Were you guys watching that game when Kent Tekulve was in the booth talking about the organization? I think you have many reasons for valid optimism and as a fan of all small-market teams, I'm sure you guys are like me in getting even more satisfaction out of winning when you're doing it on your payroll. Tekulve wasn't spouting pie-in-the-sky, he was giving very sound reasons why he felt the club was going to be competitive for years to come.

 

[mrwallace2ku]

1 more piece of the puzzle needed here...

A Roberto Clemente type player...timely hitting at the plate and a tremendous arm in the field would do it.

 

[Illinest]

I think we're at a weird place where it would be good to trade for another piece but at the same time we don't have excess depth just yet. Even in the outfield or starting pitching - we have some good prospects but none that are ready to contribute yet.

I would say that we can afford to move some of the lesser outfield depth. Presley, Tabata, Snider, Lambo, Sands, etc... but I wouldn't want to move a guy like Polanco unless we're getting a guy who can play the outfield for a few years.
Same with the starting pitching. We can afford to move a healthy mcpherson or Oliver or cumpton but I don't think I would feel good about trading any of the bigger names.


I think Sanchez is ready so we could probably afford to move McKenry.


I really think that the smart play would be to go after Josh Willingham. His season stats look low because he struggled a bit in the wake of a hand injury. I checked into this myself. His BB and K rates have remained consistent but his LD% went way down after he got injured. His BABIP is also unusually low for him. His production will weigh in what it would cost to acquire him and he wouldn't be a pure rental since he has another year on his contract that only costs 7 mill. He would replace Snider in RF and could bat in the middle of the order. His OBP and power production are both pretty good and he'd be a welcome help against LH starters.
I'd like to see if we can acquire him without giving up any or our premium prospects. In other words no Glasnow, Kingham, Taillon, Polanco, or Hanson. Maybe Heredia if he keeps gaining weight.

 

[Illinest]

Pirates Prospects » Polanco, Taillon Could Get Giancarlo Stanton: Why the Pirates Should Do It

Schoenfeld also has an article suggesting the same trade be made and you can find a link to that article inside the one that i just provided.
This is a really balls to the wall proposal but i kinda like it.

1. Marte lf
2. Walker 2b
3. Mccutchen cf
4. Stanton rf
5. Jones/sanchez 1b
6. Martin c
7. Alvarez 3b
8. Mercer ss

B. Mckenry, barmes, tabata, snider (and the other half of 1b platoon)

The farm system would still have glasnow and kingham as future starter candidates (and both are likely to be top 100 ranked prospects so that's not shabby at all) We would almost certainly want to get another year with aj before we commit to losing taillon however. At catcher we'd have some very young prospects including mcguire, de jhang and mathisen but none close to the majors. Losing sanchez would be kind of painful. Polanco might be the best player of the group but losing him might not even hurt the major league team since we'd have a great outfield and plenty of time for guys like bell and meadows to develop.

 

[thedddd]

Losing Taillon and Sanchez might be a gamble if Taillon becomes a stud and if Martin leaves there is a huge hole back at Catcher.
But Palanco doesn't matter if Stanton is in RF since he is only 2 years older and already hit 100 HR's in the majors.

Anyway I would love for this team to make that deal and would finally banish Snider/Tabata to the bench. That OF could then be a great one for a long period of time.

 

[sychmd]

i would send polanco and the next 2 pitchers not named cole and taillon. then a good prospect from low A not named bell or allie. we can also throw in whoever they want of presley, tabata, snider to fill in RF now. they will probably want the cheapest one.

that gives them a good 4 person return and time because they dont need them now.

if we have stanton, we dont need polanco.

if we had to give cole or taillon, taillon seems like he might have the higher upside as cole might lack the mental edge as he faded with UCLA and hasnt dominated in AA or AAA given his "incredible stuff" and certainly hasnt dominated at the MLB level like some of his peers have been able to do in their first couple starts. dont get me wrong, he will be good, but like a nolan ryan, just good enough to lose or be a 500 pitcher is what he reminds me of. throwing 98-100 and not being a big strikeout guy is concerning.

 

[thecrow124]

My opinion, if it were to matter would be to not make the trade. Ideally this situation would arise next season and we could involve Cole and Marte instead of Taillon and Polanco. I see Polanco being a far superior player to Marte and Taillon at the very least as an equal to Cole.

However, I also do not see this situation being here next year because I think Stanton will be traded by the deadline this season.

One thing everyone has to remember, most gm's will go for quality before quantity. In this scenario, Taillon is a far bigger prize than the combination of Kingham and Glasnow. Polanco is far bigger than Barnes and Bell. I say that because they have the higher upsides and they are closer to proving that they can acheive those ceilings than hit their floors. The chances of trading for Stanton without top talent is not good, nor is it good business for Miami.

If there is a trade between the Marlins and Pirates for Stanton in a best case, it would cost Taillon or Polanco, but more likely would cost both.

 

[steelparrot]

Thats a major gamble trading for Stanton, it is mighty tempting though.

I think I'd rather see us stay the course, make several minor upgrades.

Upgrade rf with a league average rental
Upgrade Inge
Upgrade Fort -> Sanchez can do that prolly
Upgrade Mazzaro

That wouldnt cost us anything we would miss.

Anything that we cant get with Presley, Tabata, Snider, Black, Welker, Oliver, Hughes, Cumpton, Sands, Lambo, Pimentel ect, pass on the deal.

A package of (one of Presley Tabata Snider), plus 2-3 of the others I listed can get us a solid rf. The competitive balance lottery is before the deadline, hopefully we get a good pick that we can add to our trade line ammo.

 

[ramburgh]

Would be nice to do something like Polanco, Lambo, Pimental and Allie. I think we would be selling high on the 4 of them. Throw in Presley, Tabata or Snider to take Stanton's spot for the time being. Taillon is too much to give up for someone with a history of injuries at the age of 23.? To me it is a red flag if someone is often injured when his body should be at its best. I would send 4 of the top 10-15 players in the system plus a replacement player for the time being. I would include Sanchez if he is what would get the deal done, but would try to send someone else if possible.