Analyzing Jack Z's trades

[Logicallylethal]

The Good

1) Trading JJ Putz, Jeremy Reed, etc for Mike Carp, Endy Chavez, Franklin Gutierrez, Jason Vargas and Maikel Cleto
- Putz never worked out in NY but revived his career in Zona and has been pretty good since. Reed however has been an afterthought in the trade. In return we got Endy who is now our starting rightfielder. Gutierrez for a while seemed like a starting outfielder for us, but injuries have kept him out. Carp, is gone and raking in Boston. Cleto we flipped him for Brendan Ryan. And Vargas we were able to flip to get Morales. So overall...a pretty good trade giving up an older closer to get back a few starting players including our current middle of the order hitter
Grade: B

2) Trading Fabian Williamson for David Aardsma
- Williamson was a nobody and we flipped him to get a very good reliever who filled in the roles of a long reliever, set up man, and also a very good closer.
grade: A

3) Trading Phillip Aumont, Tyson Gilles, and JC ramirez for Cliff Lee
- Probably the best move Jack Z has ever made in his career as GM.
Grade: A+

4) Trading Cleto for Brendan Ryan
- Ryan is pretty bad at the plate but there's no question about his defense. He has been an ok starter for us. Ryan just doesn't fit our team because we lack hitting. Ryan would be an excellent starter on a winning team.
Grade: C+

5) Trading Josh Lueke for John Jaso
- Excellent trade getting Jaso who was very good for us last year and then flipped Jaso for Morse
Grade: A

6) Trading Jason Vargas for Kendrys Morales
- Vargas was a solid starter for us but Kendrys has given us a legit middle of the order bat
Grade: A

7) Trading Jaso for Morse
- Morse has shown some nice power for us but injuries have held him from truly producing in the middle of the order for us. I like this move, but to think that we had Morse in the first place and gave him away for nothing...it kind of takes away from this move being that good
Grade: B

The Bad

1) Trading Mike Morse for Ryan Langerhans
- Mariners got a mediocre hitter and Morse became a power hitter with the Nats
Grade: F

2) Trading Jeff Clement and others for Jack Wilson and Ian Snell
- Well Clement never panned out...but at the time he was our top 5 pick and was still young and we traded him for a short stop that couldn't hit and a mediocre pitcher that is no longer in the league. I guess you can say the Ms got lucky Clement didn't pan out
Grade: C-

3) Trading Jarrod Washburn for Lucas French and Mauricio Robles
- At the time Washburn was one of the most sought after starting pitchers and as a valuable trade chip we get absolutely nothing back in the trade. French and Robles are no longer with the Ms.
Grade: D-

4) Trading Brandon Morrow for Brandon League
- Morrow is currently struggling this year but last year he posted a 2.96 era and the years before that he was a very solid starter. League was pretty good for us but is now gone.
Grade: C

5) Trading Cliff Lee for Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke
- Jack Z had one of the biggest trading chips in all of baseball and once again was not able to reel in a top prospect who would actually produce on the big level. Smoak still has a chance to do something, but it's not looking good so far. Beavan is mediocre. Lueke, we were able to get Jaso for him and then with Jaso we were able to get Morse. So essentially we got Smoak and Morse for Lee. Still a terrible trade...but if Smoak can just develop into a solid starting first basemen it's not as bad as it seems a year or two ago.
Grade: D

6) Trading Doug Fister for charlie Furbish, Casper Wells, Fransico Martinez and Chance Ruffin
- Easily one of the worst moves in the Jack Z regime. Fister has blossomed in Detroit and has become one of the better pitchers in the AL while Casper Wells and Fransisco Martinez are no longer even on the team. Furbish is a solid reliever but Ruffin who was thought to have potential now looks like a triple a fill in.

7) Trading Erik Bedard for Trayvon Robinson and Chih-Hsien Chiang
- Just a few years after our Adam Jones trade...Bedard, despite his injuries, was still a good trade piece and we got two guys who are no longer on our team.
Grade: D


Overall, I think Jack Z has done a decent job as gm. He's had his share of some really good moves and his share of some really bad ones. I think with us Mariner fans our frustration stems from the team's lack of progression in the wins and loss column.

But to be honest, a lot of that simply has to do with the prospects Ackley, Smoak, Mnotero, etc not panning out. We can look back and criticize Jack z for that Cliff Lee trade now, but at the time Smoak was the best available prospect that we could have gotten in return. We also got Lueke in that trade who we flipped for Jaso and then now Morse. The only real bad bad trade was the Fister trade. It didn't make sense to me when it was made and it doesn't make sense now.

What do you guys think of Jack Z?

 

[unlvmariners]

Overall I like Jack Z and I think he has the right idea when it comes to building a team/organization. I think he has done a decent job when it comes to drafting. I like a lot of the younger guys in our system right now. I also think he has gotten a little unlucky... For example when Ackley was drafted it was a sure thing and he was expected to hit for a high average and be an all star, that has not happened.

I think you are right there are some good trades and some pretty bad ones also. The bad ones seem to stand out more because the Mariners are not winning.

I don't think this team is as far away from success as it seems right now. We are a couple of pieces away right now in my opinion. One or two players can make a big difference on a baseball team.

I think Jack Z has built a very good farm system and we are starting to get a little taste of some of those players making their way to the major league roster.

Our young pitchers are going to play a key role in the future success of this team with Felix and Iwakuma to build around. Between Walker, Maurer, Hultzen and Paxton we only need 1 or 2 of them to become successful major league pitchers. I also think there are some lesser known pitchers in our organization that will start to emerge.

I am not as frustrated with Jack Z as other are but I certainly understand their where they are coming from. I think it may take a different GM to get the Mariners over the hump. Jack Z has built a good farm system but it may take somebody different to get the results on the major league field.

 

[wazzu31]

The Good

1) Trading JJ Putz, Jeremy Reed, etc for Mike Carp, Endy Chavez, Franklin Gutierrez, Jason Vargas and Maikel Cleto
- Putz never worked out in NY but revived his career in Zona and has been pretty good since. Reed however has been an afterthought in the trade. In return we got Endy who is now our starting rightfielder. Gutierrez for a while seemed like a starting outfielder for us, but injuries have kept him out. Carp, is gone and raking in Boston. Cleto we flipped him for Brendan Ryan. And Vargas we were able to flip to get Morales. So overall...a pretty good trade giving up an older closer to get back a few starting players including our current middle of the order hitter
Grade: B

2) Trading Fabian Williamson for David Aardsma
- Williamson was a nobody and we flipped him to get a very good reliever who filled in the roles of a long reliever, set up man, and also a very good closer.
grade: A

3) Trading Phillip Aumont, Tyson Gilles, and JC ramirez for Cliff Lee
- Probably the best move Jack Z has ever made in his career as GM.
Grade: A+

4) Trading Cleto for Brendan Ryan
- Ryan is pretty bad at the plate but there's no question about his defense. He has been an ok starter for us. Ryan just doesn't fit our team because we lack hitting. Ryan would be an excellent starter on a winning team.
Grade: C+

5) Trading Josh Lueke for John Jaso
- Excellent trade getting Jaso who was very good for us last year and then flipped Jaso for Morse
Grade: A

6) Trading Jason Vargas for Kendrys Morales
- Vargas was a solid starter for us but Kendrys has given us a legit middle of the order bat
Grade: A

7) Trading Jaso for Morse
- Morse has shown some nice power for us but injuries have held him from truly producing in the middle of the order for us. I like this move, but to think that we had Morse in the first place and gave him away for nothing...it kind of takes away from this move being that good
Grade: B

The Bad

1) Trading Mike Morse for Ryan Langerhans
- Mariners got a mediocre hitter and Morse became a power hitter with the Nats
Grade: F

2) Trading Jeff Clement and others for Jack Wilson and Ian Snell
- Well Clement never panned out...but at the time he was our top 5 pick and was still young and we traded him for a short stop that couldn't hit and a mediocre pitcher that is no longer in the league. I guess you can say the Ms got lucky Clement didn't pan out
Grade: C-

3) Trading Jarrod Washburn for Lucas French and Mauricio Robles
- At the time Washburn was one of the most sought after starting pitchers and as a valuable trade chip we get absolutely nothing back in the trade. French and Robles are no longer with the Ms.
Grade: D-

4) Trading Brandon Morrow for Brandon League
- Morrow is currently struggling this year but last year he posted a 2.96 era and the years before that he was a very solid starter. League was pretty good for us but is now gone.
Grade: C

5) Trading Cliff Lee for Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke
- Jack Z had one of the biggest trading chips in all of baseball and once again was not able to reel in a top prospect who would actually produce on the big level. Smoak still has a chance to do something, but it's not looking good so far. Beavan is mediocre. Lueke, we were able to get Jaso for him and then with Jaso we were able to get Morse. So essentially we got Smoak and Morse for Lee. Still a terrible trade...but if Smoak can just develop into a solid starting first basemen it's not as bad as it seems a year or two ago.
Grade: D

6) Trading Doug Fister for charlie Furbish, Casper Wells, Fransico Martinez and Chance Ruffin
- Easily one of the worst moves in the Jack Z regime. Fister has blossomed in Detroit and has become one of the better pitchers in the AL while Casper Wells and Fransisco Martinez are no longer even on the team. Furbish is a solid reliever but Ruffin who was thought to have potential now looks like a triple a fill in.

7) Trading Erik Bedard for Trayvon Robinson and Chih-Hsien Chiang
- Just a few years after our Adam Jones trade...Bedard, despite his injuries, was still a good trade piece and we got two guys who are no longer on our team.
Grade: D


Overall, I think Jack Z has done a decent job as gm. He's had his share of some really good moves and his share of some really bad ones. I think with us Mariner fans our frustration stems from the team's lack of progression in the wins and loss column.

But to be honest, a lot of that simply has to do with the prospects Ackley, Smoak, Mnotero, etc not panning out. We can look back and criticize Jack z for that Cliff Lee trade now, but at the time Smoak was the best available prospect that we could have gotten in return. We also got Lueke in that trade who we flipped for Jaso and then now Morse. The only real bad bad trade was the Fister trade. It didn't make sense to me when it was made and it doesn't make sense now.

What do you guys think of Jack Z?

Outside of his trade that should've got him fired on the spot with Doug Fister, my huge issue with his dealings is that he doesn't trade guys when their value is high.

Aardsma, League, Wilhemsen. All 3 are closers that he doesn't need and all had tremendous value to a contender but kept them

They sent Carp down to AAA to switch his position and his bat had value but he let him flounder and lose value and just let him go.

Smoak still has value and if he is serious about converting Montero over to 1B then he needs to deal Smoak while he still has some value

Ackley is another guy, once Franklin has emerged and forced Ackley out, Ackley needs to be dealt before he loses value. Ackley has zero value in baseball as a CF. He doesn't have the arm, doesn't have the power. A 2B, he has tremendous value, in CF his ceiling is a higher average Endy Chavez.

Then guys like Liddi, Saunders etc who had value but no future with the big club (Saunders didn't until Guti got hurt) Liddi just got dealt for a bag of balls but with the signing of Chone Figgins, Liddi should've been dealt much like when Saunders was a top prospect.


Hindsight is 20/20 but Vargas should've been dealt when his value was at a peak at the trade deadline last year. He is going to have to pull off some miracle deal with Morales at this deadline or he wasted Vargas' former value on a rental player.

But I will give him an A+++++ on the coup of signing Felix to a deal that is well under the market value he could've received.

Obviously I'm negative on him and can't really give him an A on the Lee or Morse trades because they both were going to get dealt just needed a 3rd team to make the deals with Toronto/Philly and Oakland/Washington work

 

[dude82]

Outside of his trade that should've got him fired on the spot with Doug Fister, my huge issue with his dealings is that he doesn't trade guys when their value is high.

Aardsma, League, Wilhemsen. All 3 are closers that he doesn't need and all had tremendous value to a contender but kept them

They sent Carp down to AAA to switch his position and his bat had value but he let him flounder and lose value and just let him go.

Smoak still has value and if he is serious about converting Montero over to 1B then he needs to deal Smoak while he still has some value

Ackley is another guy, once Franklin has emerged and forced Ackley out, Ackley needs to be dealt before he loses value. Ackley has zero value in baseball as a CF. He doesn't have the arm, doesn't have the power. A 2B, he has tremendous value, in CF his ceiling is a higher average Endy Chavez.

Then guys like Liddi, Saunders etc who had value but no future with the big club (Saunders didn't until Guti got hurt) Liddi just got dealt for a bag of balls but with the signing of Chone Figgins, Liddi should've been dealt much like when Saunders was a top prospect.


Hindsight is 20/20 but Vargas should've been dealt when his value was at a peak at the trade deadline last year. He is going to have to pull off some miracle deal with Morales at this deadline or he wasted Vargas' former value on a rental player.

But I will give him an A+++++ on the coup of signing Felix to a deal that is well under the market value he could've received.

Obviously I'm negative on him and can't really give him an A on the Lee or Morse trades because they both were going to get dealt just needed a 3rd team to make the deals with Toronto/Philly and Oakland/Washington work

I think a lot of people forget the Felix deal in their evaluations of Zduriencik, so I'm glad that you included it in yours.

As far as Ackley in the outfield goes... his value will increase out there if he starts hitting the way he was expected to hit when he was drafted. He doesn't have a ton of power, obviously, but center isn't really a power position. It can be, but it's not a necessary trait for a good center fielder to have. Now, if you're not getting power out of your corner outfield spots, you might want more from your center fielder, but the corner spots have been the traditional power positions and as long as Ackley is hitting for a good average and getting on base a lot, he doesn't need to hit for much power. Besides, he hit 12 homeruns last year and many thought he was capable of improving on that number, so it's not like he hasn't shown any power at all.

His arm isn't great, but I'm more interested in accuracy than strength anyway. If he's consistently hitting the cut-off man, his arm shouldn't be an issue out there. I think, more than anything, it's just weird to see him out there after seeing him at second base for virtually his entire pro career up to this point. He's a good athlete, so the more comfortable he gets playing out there, the better off he's gonna be. He still has to get used to playing the outfield and all of the quirks and nuances in the various ballparks that come with playing the outfield, but more importantly, he just has to get his bat going again. If he can't do that, he's not going to have a position in the outfield or the infield to play in the major leagues.

 

[wazzu31]

I think a lot of people forget the Felix deal in their evaluations of Zduriencik, so I'm glad that you included it in yours.

As far as Ackley in the outfield goes... his value will increase out there if he starts hitting the way he was expected to hit when he was drafted. He doesn't have a ton of power, obviously, but center isn't really a power position. It can be, but it's not a necessary trait for a good center fielder to have. Now, if you're not getting power out of your corner outfield spots, you might want more from your center fielder, but the corner spots have been the traditional power positions and as long as Ackley is hitting for a good average and getting on base a lot, he doesn't need to hit for much power. Besides, he hit 12 homeruns last year and many thought he was capable of improving on that number, so it's not like he hasn't shown any power at all.

His arm isn't great, but I'm more interested in accuracy than strength anyway. If he's consistently hitting the cut-off man, his arm shouldn't be an issue out there. I think, more than anything, it's just weird to see him out there after seeing him at second base for virtually his entire pro career up to this point. He's a good athlete, so the more comfortable he gets playing out there, the better off he's gonna be. He still has to get used to playing the outfield and all of the quirks and nuances in the various ballparks that come with playing the outfield, but more importantly, he just has to get his bat going again. If he can't do that, he's not going to have a position in the outfield or the infield to play in the major leagues.

I guess we just have a different opinion of CF. In my opinion if you are not a power guy then you better be one heck of a defender which with his arm strength he will never be. He should be able to run down some fly balls and don't think range with be an issue but relying on him hitting the cut everytime is not a good sign.

 

[Logicallylethal]

I guess we just have a different opinion of CF. In my opinion if you are not a power guy then you better be one heck of a defender which with his arm strength he will never be. He should be able to run down some fly balls and don't think range with be an issue but relying on him hitting the cut everytime is not a good sign.

You know I think as Mariner fans we've been spoiled with some of the best defensive center fielders from Ken Griffey Jr to Mike Cameron to Franklin Gutierrez and remember during our early 2000 runs even our back ups were great fielders (Charles Gipson!)

At this point though with Ackley being such a terrible bat...his average defense in center field really stands out...if his bat ever gets going and he becomes a .300 hitter I think we could forgive him for not being Mike Cameron out there in center field

 

[unlvmariners]

I guess we just have a different opinion of CF. In my opinion if you are not a power guy then you better be one heck of a defender which with his arm strength he will never be. He should be able to run down some fly balls and don't think range with be an issue but relying on him hitting the cut everytime is not a good sign.

That is an interesting point of view. I have never really thought of center field as a power position. I think of the corner outfield spots as more of a power spots.

 

[cezero]

Better than Bavasi.

That's as far as I'll go for now.

 

[TheDman875]

The frustrating thing about building through the farm is that for every few players that produce once up in the big leagues, there are a dozen more that don't reach expectations. It just seems we've had some bad luck with our 1st round draft picks which is why it stands out more.

On a side note, has anyone been paying attention to Smoak lately?

In June and July he's posting a .313 AVG with around a .970 OPS.

I just wish he'd stop batting from the right side permanently. On the season he's hitting .285 batting lefty and .190 from the right.

 

[TheDman875]

In a perfect world, we could have this rotation right now.

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Cliff Lee (That means Carp would probably still be here and Smoak in Texas)
3. Doug Fister
4. Hisashi Iwakuma
5. (Pick em)

Lineup

1. CF - Jones
2. 2B - Franklin
3. 3B - Seager
4. LF - Ibanez / 1B - Carp
5. 1B - Carp / LF - Ibanez
6. DH - Morales
7. RF - Morse / Saunders
8. C - Zunino
9. SS - Miller

That's a ball club with a lot of potential.

 

[Logicallylethal]

Forgot to mention the Steve Delebar deal

Eric Thames is a solid outfielder...but does he even have a future with us on the major league ball club? Delebar is having an all star caliber year pitching...we could definitely use his arm in the bullpen this year. Replace him over Capps or Facauqhar (whatever his name is) and we win 4-5 of the games that our bullpen blows

 

[unlvmariners]

Forgot to mention the Steve Delebar deal

Eric Thames is a solid outfielder...but does he even have a future with us on the major league ball club? Delebar is having an all star caliber year pitching...we could definitely use his arm in the bullpen this year. Replace him over Capps or Facauqhar (whatever his name is) and we win 4-5 of the games that our bullpen blows

Eric Thames isn't in the Mariner organization anymore. Honestly couldn't care less about either of these players. I don't think Delabar keeps up what he is doing this year I think he is fairly wild and I think it will start to come back to haunt him soon.

 

[unlvmariners]

In a perfect world, we could have this rotation right now.

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Cliff Lee (That means Carp would probably still be here and Smoak in Texas)
3. Doug Fister
4. Hisashi Iwakuma
5. (Pick em)

Lineup

1. CF - Jones
2. 2B - Franklin
3. 3B - Seager
4. LF - Ibanez / 1B - Carp
5. 1B - Carp / LF - Ibanez
6. DH - Morales
7. RF - Morse / Saunders
8. C - Zunino
9. SS - Miller

That's a ball club with a lot of potential.

Only in a make believe world... I say no thanks to Carp though. I'm a maybe on Fister. I would take Kuma over Fister to be honest.

 

[seattlefan75]

I dont want to harp on Jack Z as far as the trades and i mean mostly with the cliff lee trade, he did have one of the best trading pieces in baseball at the time and wasnt Justin Smoak rated like #9 or something in ESPN top 100 prospects? in the CBSSPORTS website i went on the rangers board and they were a little upset that they had to give up justin smoak and if i remember correctly it was a last second deal jack was getting ready to trade lee to the yankees for montero.

However I will say this a lot of his draft picks arent doing to well. I understand that dutin ackley was one of the hottest hitting prospects in the draft and that he could hit for high avg getting 200 hits a season, batting .400 in college. That was the smart pick at the time, i bet the #3 team (padres I think) would have grabbed him if we didnt pick him. Is it 100% jacks fault that dustin ackley is failing at the major league level? same with justin smoak? do we expect jack to go in the batting cages and show them how to hit?

but in the end i believe its year 4 in his 5 year plan and were not exactly in contention to win the west so idk what to make of this

 

[wazzu31]

I dont want to harp on Jack Z as far as the trades and i mean mostly with the cliff lee trade, he did have one of the best trading pieces in baseball at the time and wasnt Justin Smoak rated like #9 or something in ESPN top 100 prospects? in the CBSSPORTS website i went on the rangers board and they were a little upset that they had to give up justin smoak and if i remember correctly it was a last second deal jack was getting ready to trade lee to the yankees for montero.

However I will say this a lot of his draft picks arent doing to well. I understand that dutin ackley was one of the hottest hitting prospects in the draft and that he could hit for high avg getting 200 hits a season, batting .400 in college. That was the smart pick at the time, i bet the #3 team (padres I think) would have grabbed him if we didnt pick him. Is it 100% jacks fault that dustin ackley is failing at the major league level? same with justin smoak? do we expect jack to go in the batting cages and show them how to hit?

but in the end i believe its year 4 in his 5 year plan and were not exactly in contention to win the west so idk what to make of this

Smoak was a highly touted prospect but had just been sent down. Its a small tell but, to me, the center piece of a deal should be a highly rated prospect that if he has had big league experience actually showed something.

 

[wazzu31]

That is an interesting point of view. I have never really thought of center field as a power position. I think of the corner outfield spots as more of a power spots.

That's my take on every outfield position. Its rare that you'll get both offense and defense but if you're in the big leagues you should excel at one. But just one mans opinion.

 

[unlvmariners]

That's my take on every outfield position. Its rare that you'll get both offense and defense but if you're in the big leagues you should excel at one. But just one mans opinion.

See I have always thought of the center fielder as a super athlete. Lots of speed, athletic, high avg. and good defense and occasionally you will get the hall of fame types like Griffey or Trout who has all that with the added bonus of power. Defensively I think of the CF'er as a player that, in a pinch, can play all outfield positions but not all corner outfielders can play center.

 

[cezero]

In a perfect world, we could have this rotation right now.

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Cliff Lee (That means Carp would probably still be here and Smoak in Texas)
3. Doug Fister
4. Hisashi Iwakuma
5. (Pick em)

Lineup

1. CF - Jones
2. 2B - Franklin
3. 3B - Seager
4. LF - Ibanez / 1B - Carp
5. 1B - Carp / LF - Ibanez
6. DH - Morales
7. RF - Morse / Saunders
8. C - Zunino
9. SS - Miller

That's a ball club with a lot of potential.

That would be a nice pitching rotation, though Cliff Lee made it clear he had no desire to stay in Seattle.

His heart was always back in Phillie, and he said so from the get go.

 

[dude82]

That's my take on every outfield position. Its rare that you'll get both offense and defense but if you're in the big leagues you should excel at one. But just one mans opinion.

Could that have had something to do with having Griffey (the first time around) and Cameron playing center and hitting for power for 15 solid years? Obviously Cameron didn't have quite the power that Junior had, but he had more than your average center fielder did at the time. I'd say we got pretty lucky having those guys penciled in in center field for that long, but I don't think their combination of power and great defense is typical of most center fielders these days. If you take a look at the leaders in SLG% (a good indication of a player's power) for just this year, the only players in the top 20 who you would say get regular work in center are Adam Jones and Mike Trout, and Trout has seen a pretty good chunk of time in left field this year as well. Your average center fielder these days hits for average, has speed and plays solid defense. Power is a bonus, but not the norm. Not anymore, anyway.

 

[Baseballnut77]

Jack Z

Imo it is important to remember that in grading jack it should be just as much about the farm he has built as the trades he has made which brings him up 1 full mark in my eyes