Alvarez Not Playing Winter Ball

[Darkstone42]

It is just the way I feel. But since you bring it up, what have you seen from him since the moment he signed with us, the first time, that makes you think he can be a contributing member to a major league team? From what I have seen, he has done nothing. He had a good half season in AA, and a good month in the majors, but even in both cases is strikeout rate was too high to make you think anything you were seeing was sustainable.



As for my personal feelings about him, it is just how I feel, I don't ask anyone to share my feelings, so please don't tell me I am being irrational.


N

I can understand perfectly reasonably why you don't want him while he's performing as he did last year, but you said you didn't want him even if he won 5 NL MVPs and hit .300 with 40 home runs every year. That just doesn't seem reasonable to me, since, in general, NL MVPs and guys who hit like that help their baseball teams win games, and we don't get to see enough of that as Pirate fans.

I can understand bitterness or resentment over the contract thing (though I directed most of my ire at Scott Boras), but I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree about wanting him on the team if he figures it out this year and hits, because if he does, I want him on the team, regardless of contract talks or personality things.

As far as why I think he can still be something, I agree with Etrius that he was rushed. He shouldn't have debuted until, at the earliest, last July. He still had things to work on, and they didn't give him the chance.

Even so, despite high strikeout rates, he also exhibited good power, even when he was cold (last season notwithstanding). If he hits 30 home runs and strikes out 150 times, he probably ultimately still has a positive impact on this team, and I can see him doing that.

I think his ceiling is around Adam Dunn, which isn't bad at all.

 

[thecrow124]

I am not sure what makes everyone think he was rushed. He was an advanced college hitter that when drafted was expected to be fast tracked to the majors. His entire missed season cost him every bit of his advanced hitting skills. He since has shown a propensity for an inability to be coached up.

Maybe it is just me but I really don't see much of an upside for him, definitely not the Adam Dunn level. I think if he really puts it together for any stretch of time we are looking at Mark Reynolds with zero defense. He has a problem, and the only people that seem to know what that problem is are the ones he has to face.

 

[Darkstone42]

I am not sure what makes everyone think he was rushed. He was an advanced college hitter that when drafted was expected to be fast tracked to the majors. His entire missed season cost him every bit of his advanced hitting skills. He since has shown a propensity for an inability to be coached up.

Maybe it is just me but I really don't see much of an upside for him, definitely not the Adam Dunn level. I think if he really puts it together for any stretch of time we are looking at Mark Reynolds with zero defense. He has a problem, and the only people that seem to know what that problem is are the ones he has to face.

I consider anyone who still had some glaring weakness which seemed to be ignored for the call-up to have been rushed. Pedro struggles with off-speed pitches, so why call him up after less than a year at AAA when he could have worked on it there?

 

[thecrow124]

When I saw Pedro play last year he had trouble with 3 pitches. The ones over the plate, the ones when he had two strikes on him, regardless of location, and the ones that were hit in his general direction when in the field. Other than that he seemed to have a good grasp of all other pitches.

In all honesty though, he does have trouble other than with certain types of pitches. Let's start with his Sid Bream type approach at the plate. Taking two perfectly good pitches to fall behind 0-2 before even looking like he wants to swing the bat is not a recipe for success. Attempting to pull every picnic he does swing at also isn't going to bode well for anyone other than the opposition.

All of his hitting issues are easily fixable which leads me to believe one of two things. Either he is a headcase that isn't going to figure it out, or he is to stubborn to accept the coaching he is getting. Either way, when looking at that and his signing fiasco together, I, and this is just me, see a guy that just isn't someone I could ever see as a productive member of a winning franchise.

 

[Etrius24]

Crow

The problem with Pedro and why I feel he was rushed was that he did not spend any real time at any one level in the minors. He had under 250 at bats at every stop on the way to the major leagues...

His numbers were decent in the minors, but not staggering... And as has been pointed out by other posters... The strikeouts did not go down.. This to me indicates that he never gained control of the strikezone... He was relying on his talent alone to outclass lower level minor league pitchers. You can get by with Parking lot power in the Carolina league...but not in Pittsburgh.

going back to 2011...He was just a trainwreck..He did not hit at any level and looked terrible. I was upset at the time that they did not leave him in the minors until he started to truly hit again... Until he controlled the strike zone... I has hoping for this to happen with the hope that he would put in the work... get it figured out and come back stronger than ever offensively... and finally start to live up to the hype.

 

[sychmd]

he needs to stride into the pitch, attack it, and look to drive it right back at the pitcher.
he is always pulling off the ball, trying to pull, and has his wt moving to first base.
he will have tremendous power to all fields if he doesnt try to crush it, but just put an aggressive swing up the middle, or where it is pitched. seems like trying to hit a HR and get it all back in one swing, alternating with fear and extreme caution.

 

[magnumo]

he needs to stride into the pitch, attack it, and look to drive it right back at the pitcher.
he is always pulling off the ball, trying to pull, and has his wt moving to first base.
he will have tremendous power to all fields if he doesnt try to crush it, but just put an aggressive swing up the middle, or where it is pitched. seems like trying to hit a HR and get it all back in one swing, alternating with fear and extreme caution.

Nice comprehensive summary. I've seen various parts elsewhere in written analysis attributed to a number of different scouts and experts..... but you have pulled it all together nicely. (Tried to approve the post, but got that message again about spreading reputation around.)

 

[Darkstone42]

Nice comprehensive summary. I've seen various parts elsewhere in written analysis attributed to a number of different scouts and experts..... but you have pulled it all together nicely. (Tried to approve the post, but got that message again about spreading reputation around.)

I got him for you, guy!

 

[magnumo]

I got him for you, guy!

Thanks much for that, Darkstone!

 

[thecrow124]

he needs to stride into the pitch, attack it, and look to drive it right back at the pitcher.
he is always pulling off the ball, trying to pull, and has his wt moving to first base.
he will have tremendous power to all fields if he doesnt try to crush it, but just put an aggressive swing up the middle, or where it is pitched. seems like trying to hit a HR and get it all back in one swing, alternating with fear and extreme caution.

While I would love to agree and give you an assload of rep power, if it was this simple don't you think it would have been fixed in about 3 days last year?

 

[sychmd]

the problem is easy to spot, not necessarily easy to fix when pride, fear, and not knowing your identity are the main ingredients of your makeup.
also, the issue pedro struggles with is the biggest one (along with swinging at bad pitches both in and out of the zone) that most players struggle with.
they are afraid of being behind so they commit early and try and pull, thinking that is where their power is.
mlb coaches and players are not the smartest and certainly accurately apply science the least of any major sport.

 

[element1286]

It's all mental at this point for Pedro, he has the tools to hit a ball anyway he wants, the coaches know what is wrong, and have told him many he has to implement the changes now.

 

[magnumo]

While I would love to agree and give you an assload of rep power, if it was this simple don't you think it would have been fixed in about 3 days last year?

Let me preface my reply by stating that I understand you don't like Alvarez and would prefer to see him gone. In fact, my reply may reinforce that preference.

In answer to your specific question, my specific answer is "not necessarily."

I gotta feeling that it's easier for knowledgeable coaches and other observers to put into words what Alvarez needs to do..... than it is for Alvarez to put those words into practice. I think Alvarez is the problem, mostly his head.

- The preponderance of reports from professional observers, before Alvarez was drafted, indicated that Alvarez was a premier hitting prospect, and that he had all the physical tools to carry that forward into being a productive major league player..... and probably a star.

- By the end of the 2010 season, he had shown promise of fulfilling his potential.

- Then came his 2011 trainwreck. He seemed to have forgotten all the good stuff that he knew about hitting (or perhaps his hitting was instinctive, and his instincts were good enough that he never had to think and adjust).

- Maybe the hole he dug for himself was largely about confidence (lack of), and he's having trouble gaining back that confidence. (My personal experience is that confidence is a major factor in hitting successfully.)

- Perhaps Boras continues to poison Alvarez's mind. It has been widely reported that Alvarez spent much of the winter in Boras's training facility in California, rather than playing winter ball (the Pirates' preference).

In a nutshell, it seems that it comes down to whether Alvarez will be able to use his head to make necessary adjustments, change his approach, and work his way out of the bad habits which he exhibited so prominently last year. The tools and the coaching are there. Alvarez must believe that he needs to change, he's gotta want to change, he's gotta have confidence that he CAN change, and he needs to dedicate himself to making it happen.

I have my doubts..... but I have hope, as well. Seems to me that this season will be critical for both Alvarez and the Pirates.

- If he continues to stink, I will jump firmly into your camp.

- If he finds himself, the Pirates have a chance to show significant improvement.

 

[magnumo]

ooops

Both sychmd and element replied while I was composing my post.

Sorry about that. But at least our answers seem to have a similar theme.