Alex Smith, Super Bowl Caliber QB

[pvtlapdance]

Fans who secretly or openly think A. Smith isn't a SB caliber QB and pine for the Niners to "upgrade" the QB position next year need to turn off their selective memory. A. Smith is having a better year than Montana did in 1981 and compares favorably with Montana's 1984 season.

Source: ProFootball Reference

Joe Montana

1981 (SB winning year)

regular season (5 games over 250 yd passing, 1 game with 3 passing TD)

g, cmp, att, cmp%, yd, td, int, rating, Y/A, AY/A
16, 311, 488, 63.7%, 3565, 19, 12, 88.4, 7.31, 6,98

playoffs
g, cmp, att, cmp%, yd, td, int, rating, Y/A, AY/A
3, 56, 88, 63.6%, 747, 6, 4, 94.3, 8.49, 7.81

1984 (SB winning year)

regular season (5 games over 250 yd passing, 4 games with 3 passing TD)
g, cmp, att, cmp%, yd, td, int, rating, Y/A, AY/A
16, 279, 432, 64.6%, 3630, 28, 10, 102.9 8.40, 8,66

playoffs
g, cmp, att, cmp%, yd, td, int, rating, Y/A, AY/A
3, 67, 108, 62.0%, 873, 7, 5, 89.8, 8.08, 7.30

Alex Smith

2011 (???)

regular season (3 games over 250 yd passing, 1 game with 3 passing TD)
g, cmp, att, cmp%, yd, td, int, rating, Y/A, AY/A
12, 203, 321, 63.2%, 2390, 15, 5, 94.9, 7.45, 7.68

playoffs
g, cmp, att, cmp%, yd, td, int, rating, Y/A, AY/A
TBD

***

In 1981, Montana threw 3 picks against DAL in the NFC Championship game. His QB rating for the game was 81.4. Against CIN in the Super Bowl, he was positively Alex-Smithesque, throwing for a whooping 154 yards with 1 TD. It was almost as though he was a "Game Manager" that entire 1981 season!

In 1984, Montana again threw 3 picks against NYG in the divisional game and 2 more picks against CHI in the NFC Championship game. Yes, he was great in the Super Bowl game against DEN. But even if he was as bad as he was in the CHI game, SFO would still have dominated DEN.

How many people on this board would rip Smith to shreds if he threw 3 picks in a NFC Championship game or 150 yards in the Superbowl? Yet Montana wins two SB primarily based on great running game, defense, and special teams and and suddenly nobody remembers the 9 picks he threw to only 13 TDs. Smith hasn't throw 2 picks in a game all year!

It's madness that people think Smith is what's stopping the Niners from being a Superbowl caliber team. Smith could EASILY match what Montana did in his first two Superbowls runs and LIKELY DO BETTER.

If the Niners lose in the playoffs this year, it won't be because Smith isn't Joe Montana. Football is a TEAM game and most of TEAMWORK is simply doing your own job WELL and not fvcking up.

 

[NinerSickness]

Fans who secretly or openly think A. Smith isn't a SB caliber QB and pine for the Niners to "upgrade" the QB position next year need to turn off their selective memory. A. Smith is having a better year than Montana did in 1981 and compares favorably with Montana's 1984 season.

I stopped reading right there.

 

[guitarmy21b]

I'm convinced. Smith > Montana.

 

[imac_21]

This is an incredibly stupid topic. Compare the passing games around the league in 1981 to 2011.

The 1981 49ers ranked 9th in the league in passes attempted, 7th in passing yards, 16th in passing TDs (with 20), 6th in rush attempts and 19th in rushing yards.

The 1984 49ers ranked 15th in pass attempts, 4th in passing yards, 2nd in pass TDs (with 32), 6th in rush attempts and 3rd in rush yards.

The 2011 rank 31st in pass attempts, 29th in yards passing, 16th in TDs (with 15), 4th in rush attempts and 7th in rush yards.

Maybe the games and the era have changed.

In 81 Montana finished 8th in the league in yards passing, 13th in TDs, 8th in attempts, 4th in rating.

In 84 Montana finished 6th in yards, 4th in TDs, 10th in attempts, 2nd in rating.

In 11 Alex Smith ranks 19th in yards, 14th in TDs 20th in attempts, 7th in rating.

Let's not pretend that just because the raw numbers are somewhat similar that they are having similar seasons.


Why not compare him to Johnny Unitas' season in 1970? Or Namath in 69?

 

[guitarmy21b]

This is an incredibly stupid topic. Compare the passing games around the league in 1981 to 2011.

The 1981 49ers ranked 9th in the league in passes attempted, 7th in passing yards, 16th in passing TDs (with 20), 6th in rush attempts and 19th in rushing yards.

The 1984 49ers ranked 15th in pass attempts, 4th in passing yards, 2nd in pass TDs (with 32), 6th in rush attempts and 3rd in rush yards.

The 2011 rank 31st in pass attempts, 29th in yards passing, 16th in TDs (with 15), 4th in rush attempts and 7th in rush yards.

Maybe the games and the era have changed.

In 81 Montana finished 8th in the league in yards passing, 13th in TDs, 8th in attempts, 4th in rating.

In 84 Montana finished 6th in yards, 4th in TDs, 10th in attempts, 2nd in rating.

In 11 Alex Smith ranks 19th in yards, 14th in TDs 20th in attempts, 7th in rating.

Let's not pretend that just because the raw numbers are somewhat similar that they are having similar seasons.


Why not compare him to Johnny Unitas' season in 1970? Or Namath in 69?

Great post, rep.

 

[NinerSickness]

Great post, rep.

I thought it was way too long.

 

[deep9er]

Fans who secretly or openly think A. Smith isn't a SB caliber QB and pine for the Niners to "upgrade" the QB position next year need to turn off their selective memory. A. Smith is having a better year than Montana did in 1981 and compares favorably with Montana's 1984 season.

Source: ProFootball Reference

Joe Montana

1981 (SB winning year)

regular season (5 games over 250 yd passing, 1 game with 3 passing TD)

g, cmp, att, cmp%, yd, td, int, rating, Y/A, AY/A
16, 311, 488, 63.7%, 3565, 19, 12, 88.4, 7.31, 6,98

playoffs
g, cmp, att, cmp%, yd, td, int, rating, Y/A, AY/A
3, 56, 88, 63.6%, 747, 6, 4, 94.3, 8.49, 7.81

1984 (SB winning year)

regular season (5 games over 250 yd passing, 4 games with 3 passing TD)
g, cmp, att, cmp%, yd, td, int, rating, Y/A, AY/A
16, 279, 432, 64.6%, 3630, 28, 10, 102.9 8.40, 8,66

playoffs
g, cmp, att, cmp%, yd, td, int, rating, Y/A, AY/A
3, 67, 108, 62.0%, 873, 7, 5, 89.8, 8.08, 7.30

Alex Smith

2011 (???)

regular season (3 games over 250 yd passing, 1 game with 3 passing TD)
g, cmp, att, cmp%, yd, td, int, rating, Y/A, AY/A
12, 203, 321, 63.2%, 2390, 15, 5, 94.9, 7.45, 7.68

playoffs
g, cmp, att, cmp%, yd, td, int, rating, Y/A, AY/A
TBD

***

In 1981, Montana threw 3 picks against DAL in the NFC Championship game. His QB rating for the game was 81.4. Against CIN in the Super Bowl, he was positively Alex-Smithesque, throwing for a whooping 154 yards with 1 TD. It was almost as though he was a "Game Manager" that entire 1981 season!

In 1984, Montana again threw 3 picks against NYG in the divisional game and 2 more picks against CHI in the NFC Championship game. Yes, he was great in the Super Bowl game against DEN. But even if he was as bad as he was in the CHI game, SFO would still have dominated DEN.

How many people on this board would rip Smith to shreds if he threw 3 picks in a NFC Championship game or 150 yards in the Superbowl? Yet Montana wins two SB primarily based on great running game, defense, and special teams and and suddenly nobody remembers the 9 picks he threw to only 13 TDs. Smith hasn't throw 2 picks in a game all year!

It's madness that people think Smith is what's stopping the Niners from being a Superbowl caliber team. Smith could EASILY match what Montana did in his first two Superbowls runs and LIKELY DO BETTER.

If the Niners lose in the playoffs this year, it won't be because Smith isn't Joe Montana. Football is a TEAM game and most of TEAMWORK is simply doing your own job WELL and not fvcking up.

certainly agree with the last sentence, its a team game and team work is very necessary.

i can almost believe the 2nd to the last sentence too? cause the way Alex has been playing for 12 games, don't see him collapsing to the extent he "single handedly" lost the game.

but trying to compare Smith to Montana........aish!

 

[Arete Tzu]

 

[imac_21]

In the playoffs we are going to have beat Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in all likelihood.

If you were to call up New Orleans and offer Smith for Brees; or Green Bay and offer Smith for Rodgers would you get hung up on before they started laughing at you, or would they laugh into the phone?

In 1981 Joe Montana was a Pro Bowler, was first team All Conference, and second team All Pro

In 1984 Joe Montana was a Pro Bowler, first team All Conference and second team All Pro

Will Alex Smith be All Conference this year? Of course not. Will he be top 3 All Conference? Doubt it. Where would he rank All conference?
1. Rodgers
2. Brees
3. Romo?
4. Eli?
5. Newton?
6. Is Smith here? He's not been better than anyone above him? What about Stafford? How much does Cutler's injury hurt him? matt Ryan?

If we look All Pro, now we're bringing Brady, Roethlisberger etc into the conversation.

Smith is probably, at best, in the 8-10 range for All Pro.

Montana in the two years you cited was SECOND.

Go ahead, make an argument for Smith to be one of the top 3 QBs in the league this year. Convince me he's been better than Rodgers, Brees or Brady.

I'll wait.

 

[NinerSickness]

I don't know what the point of that was, but it was amazing.

 

[MW49ers5]

I have no idea WTF I just watched - but you are getting repped!!!

 

[MW49ers5]

I don't know what the point of that was, but it was amazing.

Agreed!

 

[Flyingiguana]

 

[clyde_carbon]

 

[AdelaideCrows83]

Instead of comparing to Joe Montana, why not compare to Tom Brady?

For the purpose of this comparison, we will assume Smith can maintain his current passer rating over the next 4 games.

Before his 28th birthday, Tom Brady had 1 season (2004) with a passer rating over 90. His career best season rating was 92.6.

Before his 28th birthday, Alex Smith has 1 season (this season) with a passer rating over 90. His career best season rating is 94.9.

Thus, it has been proven. Smith > Brady

 

[Arete Tzu]

Respect to Imac for actually taking this on. This comparison just turned my brain to mush, random was all I could think of.

Remember when defenders could actually touch WRs?

 

[Flyingiguana]

Instead of comparing to Joe Montana, why not compare to Tom Brady?

For the purpose of this comparison, we will assume Smith can maintain his current passer rating over the next 4 games.

Before his 28th birthday, Tom Brady had 1 season (2004) with a passer rating over 90. His career best season rating was 92.6.

Before his 28th birthday, Alex Smith has 1 season (this season) with a passer rating over 90. His career best season rating is 94.9.

Thus, it has been proven. Smith > Brady

better d and better rb than the pats had. they might as well give us the trophy right now

 

[Kinzu]

better d and better rb than the pats had. they might as well give us the trophy right now

Weren't the Pats known for their D back then a lot more so than their offense? I'm not saying they were as good as our D has been this year but still they were the catalyst for those first few Super Bowls.

You can easily make the argument that Tom Brady was nothing more than a game manager for that offense that eventually became a field general. It's hard to imagine Tom Brady as such now, but he did not step on to the field and just instantly start playing at the level he has been the last several years.

 

[Texas9erFan]

Two different eras

Comparing QBs from two different eras is a bit silly. The game has changed.
BUT
Just because the majority or teams try to run pass first offenses these days doesn't mean that the numbers Smith is putting up won't work. The offense the Niners are running can bring a Superbowl victory IF everyone executes their position properly. There's absolutely nothing wrong with a run first, dink and dunk passing, clock controlling offense.

It worked in '81 and it can work today. All you need is the defense and ST to do their jobs well also.

 

[threelittleturds]

I can't tell if you're trying to promote Alex Smith, or shit all over Joe Montana.

I suddenly feel like there is a hook in my cheek.