AFC West Roundup

[iknowftbll]

Ahh good point forgot about that. Honestly at this point it really is hard to tell much. 4-games is still a small sample size. I would say we can read into what the Broncos defense has been doing because this is a continuation of what they did last year. Throw in the QB's they have faced have fared much better against other teams. So I think we can say with confidence our defense is a strong unit. Offensively we are still learning. So far they have played Indy (25th ranked defense), Tampa (15th), Carolina (12th), and Cincy (9th). That is in total yards given up. Points per game Cincinnati is the only unit in the top half of the league. So again still learning whether it has been more opponent based or if this unit really is a top-10 unit in the NFL.

The offense is definitely better than last year's unit, regardless of the quality of the opponent. The thing that got me about last year's offense was you pretty much got the same level of output regardless of how good or bad the opposing defense was. Defenses that were at the bottom of the league kept the Broncos in check. But the Broncos offense did okay against some of the better defenses. That's why I wasn't worried about the Panthers defense in the Super Bowl. They wound up being better than I expected but some well placed turnovers by the defense made all the difference.

With respect to where the offense sits at this point in the season, it's hard to say. If you look at the yards, they're 15th on the ground and 23rd through the air. Combined that makes for 21st ranked offense by yards. Scoring they are 5th, but the defense has added some scores of their own that sort of bolster that ranking. I think we will see the offense steadily improve to the point they finish somewhere between 10-15th, with that defense easily top 5. Rankings don't matter: wins do. But I think rankings like that can lead to another 12-4 finish for the Broncos. Not bad for a team with the worst QB situation in the league!

 

[cdumler7]

The offense is definitely better than last year's unit, regardless of the quality of the opponent. The thing that got me about last year's offense was you pretty much got the same level of output regardless of how good or bad the opposing defense was. Defenses that were at the bottom of the league kept the Broncos in check. But the Broncos offense did okay against some of the better defenses. That's why I wasn't worried about the Panthers defense in the Super Bowl. They wound up being better than I expected but some well placed turnovers by the defense made all the difference.

With respect to where the offense sits at this point in the season, it's hard to say. If you look at the yards, they're 15th on the ground and 23rd through the air. Combined that makes for 21st ranked offense by yards. Scoring they are 5th, but the defense has added some scores of their own that sort of bolster that ranking. I think we will see the offense steadily improve to the point they finish somewhere between 10-15th, with that defense easily top 5. Rankings don't matter: wins do. But I think rankings like that can lead to another 12-4 finish for the Broncos. Not bad for a team with the worst QB situation in the league!

I agree we can see that this offense is better. I was more suggesting we just don't know how much better yet. They are still a growing unit with a lot of new moving pieces. So that obviously takes time to reach the max level that this unit can achieve. The nice thing is they are moving the ball well and other than week 1 have kept the turnovers under control. We are also now starting to see them finish off the red zone drives more and more as the weeks go on. So when you can move the ball and finish off drives it not only leads to this offense looking good but then gives the defense quite a bit of rest.

Honestly I never thought we would be a big time yards per game type offense. We want to run the ball and so far have shown a more clock managing style of throwing the football. So fewer drives per game but more quality drives in that time.

 

[iknowftbll]

^ So if you take off the two defensive scores against the Colts and count only scoring drives the offense had to move the ball at least one play to get a score, the Broncos PF drops to 24 PPG, good enough for 14th in the league. That is 1) still better than last year, 2) to be somewhat expected with the unit still very much adjusting to Kubiak's approach as well as enduring a lot of turnover, 3) likely going to see steady improvement throughout the season 4) would likely improve in league rankings even if 24 PPG held through the season due to the league rankings being condensed this early in the season and 5) it doesn't matter how much the offense scores but how much the TEAM scores. So the Broncos scoring being augmented by a couple defensive scores just makes this a stronger team.

I can honestly say I'm really impressed with the offense and improvements at this point. Even though they aren't a "light up the scoreboard" type of offense they move the ball well enough to avoid constant 3 and outs, and seem to have reigned in that turnover problem from the first two weeks. You combine that with this defense and it will be hard for any team to beat these Broncos.

 

[cdumler7]

^ So if you take off the two defensive scores against the Colts and count only scoring drives the offense had to move the ball at least one play to get a score, the Broncos PF drops to 24 PPG, good enough for 14th in the league. That is 1) still better than last year, 2) to be somewhat expected with the unit still very much adjusting to Kubiak's approach as well as enduring a lot of turnover, 3) likely going to see steady improvement throughout the season 4) would likely improve in league rankings even if 24 PPG held through the season due to the league rankings being condensed this early in the season and 5) it doesn't matter how much the offense scores but how much the TEAM scores. So the Broncos scoring being augmented by a couple defensive scores just makes this a stronger team.

I can honestly say I'm really impressed with the offense and improvements at this point. Even though they aren't a "light up the scoreboard" type of offense they move the ball well enough to avoid constant 3 and outs, and seem to have reigned in that turnover problem from the first two weeks. You combine that with this defense and it will be hard for any team to beat these Broncos.

Oh I agree the offense is much better this year than last year. Have to remember the Broncos have turned the ball over 5 times this season. 4 of those were in scoring distance. So even if those are field goals that still takes that number up to 27 points per game. And what we have seen as the season has gone on is us going from red zone trips being turnovers or field goals to more touchdowns. That just comes with the offense getting more comfortable and the coaches figuring out what strengths and weaknesses this offense has. So I'm not worried about that unit.

My comment was actually more towards the Raiders. Such as their defense has shown improvement the last 2 weeks. Was that because they played bottom-10 offenses compared to top-10 offenses the first 2 weeks of the season or is that they have progressed that much as a unit? I just don't know. I think they are a little better than earlier in the season when they were playing like a bottom-3 defensive unit in the NFL but I don't think they have even reached being an average unit yet.

Same with their offense. While I do think they have a very good offense they have been up and down so far. I don't know if I can trust the Ravens defensive rankings because other than the Raiders who have they played? Not great offenses that is for sure. Tennessee has a decent defense and they shut the Raiders down most of the game. So again just needing to see more before I really know what the Raiders have as a team. I see the talent but I also see a team that just lacks consistency and doesn't always do their job well.

The Chiefs fall into that same category for me. Offensively they look like they should be better than they are. Yet so far they have been terrible and aided by an opportunistic defense. Defensively they should maybe be worse and at times have shown to be worse. So I just don't know what they are yet.

 

[iknowftbll]

Oh I agree the offense is much better this year than last year. Have to remember the Broncos have turned the ball over 5 times this season. 4 of those were in scoring distance. So even if those are field goals that still takes that number up to 27 points per game. And what we have seen as the season has gone on is us going from red zone trips being turnovers or field goals to more touchdowns. That just comes with the offense getting more comfortable and the coaches figuring out what strengths and weaknesses this offense has. So I'm not worried about that unit.

My comment was actually more towards the Raiders. Such as their defense has shown improvement the last 2 weeks. Was that because they played bottom-10 offenses compared to top-10 offenses the first 2 weeks of the season or is that they have progressed that much as a unit? I just don't know. I think they are a little better than earlier in the season when they were playing like a bottom-3 defensive unit in the NFL but I don't think they have even reached being an average unit yet.

Same with their offense. While I do think they have a very good offense they have been up and down so far. I don't know if I can trust the Ravens defensive rankings because other than the Raiders who have they played? Not great offenses that is for sure. Tennessee has a decent defense and they shut the Raiders down most of the game. So again just needing to see more before I really know what the Raiders have as a team. I see the talent but I also see a team that just lacks consistency and doesn't always do their job well.

The Chiefs fall into that same category for me. Offensively they look like they should be better than they are. Yet so far they have been terrible and aided by an opportunistic defense. Defensively they should maybe be worse and at times have shown to be worse. So I just don't know what they are yet.

I think we are on the same page with all three of these teams. I am really looking forward to seeing how the Raiders handle the Chargers this week. I love watching other AFC West games (won't watch this one live because it overlaps with the Broncos game, but I'll heavily analyze it) and this one could really tell us a lot about the Raiders. Despite some injuries the Chargers have led going into the final 2 minutes in all four games. That's gotta be frustrating to be 1-3 but less than a combined 6 minutes away from being 4-0. Also despite some injuries, they are surprisingly potent on offense. If the Raiders D can keep the Chargers offense under a lid then we may have to give them some props. If the Chargers put up in the high 20s we may be able to conclude that Raiders D still has a long way to go.

And despite the fact the Chargers struggle to close, they absolutely can pull off the upset in this game. Wouldn't that be the coup!

 

[cdumler7]

I think we are on the same page with all three of these teams. I am really looking forward to seeing how the Raiders handle the Chargers this week. I love watching other AFC West games (won't watch this one live because it overlaps with the Broncos game, but I'll heavily analyze it) and this one could really tell us a lot about the Raiders. Despite some injuries the Chargers have led going into the final 2 minutes in all four games. That's gotta be frustrating to be 1-3 but less than a combined 6 minutes away from being 4-0. Also despite some injuries, they are surprisingly potent on offense. If the Raiders D can keep the Chargers offense under a lid then we may have to give them some props. If the Chargers put up in the high 20s we may be able to conclude that Raiders D still has a long way to go.

And despite the fact the Chargers struggle to close, they absolutely can pull off the upset in this game. Wouldn't that be the coup!

Oh I would be so happy if the Chargers won (which seems so weird to say). This 3-1 start has Raiders fans talking Super Bowl. Not sure I have seen a more optimistic fan base about how good their team is. I've been hearing for years that they were Super Bowl bound after the FA's and draft picks they made. I do think this is the best team they have had since 2002 but you don't usually just go from worst team in the league for 15 years to Super Bowl bound in one year. It is a growing process that takes a few seasons. Heck after our 4-12 season even we had some growing pains along the way. Started with our Tebow season going 8-8. Then brought in Peyton and quickly jumped up but still needed to learn how to win the big games. Then 2013 made it to the Super Bowl but didn't have the pieces in place to get us over the hump. Changed up philosophy in 2014 to a more aggressive hard hitting defensive style of play but Peyton got hurt and our season quickly went down hill at the end. Then of course 2015 everything came into place. And now 2016 we are looking even better as this team works to become more and more the vision of Elway and Kubiak.

 

[Mingo]

I'm actually eager for some divisional games. In particular - I'd like to see a Raider/Bronco contest. The Chiefs are just kind of sad, but dangerous.

 

[iknowftbll]

Oh I would be so happy if the Chargers won (which seems so weird to say). This 3-1 start has Raiders fans talking Super Bowl. Not sure I have seen a more optimistic fan base about how good their team is. I've been hearing for years that they were Super Bowl bound after the FA's and draft picks they made. I do think this is the best team they have had since 2002 but you don't usually just go from worst team in the league for 15 years to Super Bowl bound in one year. It is a growing process that takes a few seasons. Heck after our 4-12 season even we had some growing pains along the way. Started with our Tebow season going 8-8. Then brought in Peyton and quickly jumped up but still needed to learn how to win the big games. Then 2013 made it to the Super Bowl but didn't have the pieces in place to get us over the hump. Changed up philosophy in 2014 to a more aggressive hard hitting defensive style of play but Peyton got hurt and our season quickly went down hill at the end. Then of course 2015 everything came into place. And now 2016 we are looking even better as this team works to become more and more the vision of Elway and Kubiak.

This is some great copy. Few teams go from utter garbage to SB contender in one season. You do get teams like the 1998 Falcons who went from 3-13 to 7-9 to 14-2 to earn the privilege of being smoked by the Broncos in the Super Bowl. But that team wasn't on an extended 5+ year long dry spell leading into that 1998 season. You have teams like the Patriots who flipped their record from 5-11 to 11-5 in 2001 and went on to win the Super Bowl. But again, there wasn't a culture of losing that had set in. There are plenty of "worst to first" stories in the NFL, including recent Chiefs and Broncos teams. There are also recent cases of teams going from 2-14 to 11-5 in one season. The Dolphins went 1-15 in 2007 and 11-5 in 2008 to win the AFC East.

What you don't see is a lot of teams that have endured a long history of losing pop up out of nowhere and contend for and win a Super Bowl. Going back through the most recent 10 Super Bowls, both teams in them have been respectable teams in the seasons prior to the game. There's a base there. They've not had to overcome that culture of losing that haunts teams like the Browns and Raiders. The Raiders appear to be battling that culture now and for all we know they may succeed for the time being. But it's a bit early for their fans to be proclaiming them winners of 3 of the next 7 Super Bowls.

Regarding the bolded comment, the worst thing about watching AFC rivals play each other is one of them has to win. I go into a completely practical approach and root for whichever one has the worse record. The thing is it's a double edged sword. The Raiders falling to 3-2 is just a minor setback and the Chargers climbing to 2-3 could be a catalyst for saving their season. So it's tough. But generally I'd rather see a 3-2 team in the division than a 4-1 team.

I'm actually eager for some divisional games. In particular - I'd like to see a Raider/Bronco contest. The Chiefs are just kind of sad, but dangerous.

It is interesting how sparse AFC West play has been so far in the season. Just the Chargers @ Chiefs to start the season. This one with the Raiders and Chargers is just the second such game. But it gets better because week 6 pits the Broncos @ Chargers and Chiefs @ Raiders. We know the Chiefs will be 2-2 going into that week because they are on their by right now. Tomorrow's action can really set up an interesting week 6 in the AFC West.

 

[iknowftbll]

The updated AFC West standings:

Raiders: 4-1
Broncos: 4-1
Chiefs: 2-2
Chargers: 1-4

The Raiders are technically in first place with an AFC West win under their belt. But first place really only matters at the end of week 17 so I am not too worried at this point. And after seeing the Chargers hang 31 on them yesterday, with a chance to tie the game at 34, I think it's safe to say their defense just isn't there yet. (Of course, we said similar things about the Falcons, so...)

The Chargers have got to feel like the most snakebite team in the game right now. They drove to FG range and had a chance to tie the game, only to have the holder fumble the snap! What a tough way to go down. At least they didn't give up a late lead this time like they've been doing! Still they have a potent offense with a defense that just doesn't seem to be good enough yet. Very similar to the Raiders, save the Raiders have closed in those close battles and the Chargers have not. Just to give you an idea of how thin the margin between 4-1 and 1-4 can be, the Raiders point differential is 5, the Chargers 10.

I have nothing new to say about the Chiefs this week. At 2-2 they are coming out of a bye week and face off against the Raiders next. That's a very intriguing matchup because the Chiefs defense has been decent and their offense under performing. Coming off a bye and on the heels of that 43-14 drubbing they took against the Steelers I think they are going to give the Raiders a game.

As for the Broncos, it's not the end of the world with the loss. A rookie QB making his first start and against a non-conference opponent...color me not ready to panic. Especially if Siemian is able to return soon. The bigger issue right now is Coach Kubiak's health. Is he going to be well enough to make the trip to San Diego on a short week? It would be great if he can, but this team has some great leadership at the top so if Kubiak can't go then I still think the team will be in good shape. From the vault: the last time the Broncos started 4-0 then dropped a week 5 contest was 2003. That year they finished 10-6. The 10-6 record has not been kind to the Broncos: the team has finished 10-6 five times (1978, 1979, 1981, 2003, 2004) with a combined 0-4 playoff record and missing the playoffs outright in 1981. If you're the superstitious type, you want the team to avoid another 10-6 finish!

Next up:

Chiefs @ Raiders and Broncos @ Chargers, that one on Thursday. I am glad we are getting our TNF game out of the way relatively early. The team can go into a mini bye at 5-1. Before their actual bye in week 11, the Broncos play 3 of their next 5 against AFC West rivals, and get a visit from their old friend Brock Osweiler. This is going to be an exciting stretch of football ahead of us.

Go Broncos!

 

[CEH]

There is a misconception that common games or NFC games are the least important games. It is the #2 Tiebreaker in division . Division record followed by common games. The fact that OAK also lost to ATL minimizes the loss yesterday not that is was a non conference game. OAK's defense may not be good which really is more an issue for a successful playoff run but during the regular season high powered offenses can easily win you a division crown.

Bad teams find a way to lose (SD) . Good teams (OAK) tend to be a little lucky some point in the season and the Raiders has good luck yesterday. Yeah I know I don't want to be right but I really thought OAK was ready to take the next step.

Against our offense, it doesn't take very much defensively and if any offense can put 24 on the board there is a good chance they will win the game regardless of defense because our run game is atrocious to keep drives alive.

 

[iknowftbll]

There is a misconception that common games or NFC games are the least important games. It is the #2 Tiebreaker in division . Division record followed by common games. The fact that OAK also lost to ATL minimizes the loss yesterday not that is was a non conference game. OAK's defense may not be good which really is more an issue for a successful playoff run but during the regular season high powered offenses can easily win you a division crown.

Bad teams find a way to lose (SD) . Good teams (OAK) tend to be a little lucky some point in the season and the Raiders has good luck yesterday. Yeah I know I don't want to be right but I really thought OAK was ready to take the next step.

Against our offense, it doesn't take very much defensively and if any offense can put 24 on the board there is a good chance they will win the game regardless of defense because our run game is atrocious to keep drives alive.

You are right. The Raiders can power through the regular season and reach the playoffs, maybe even win a playoff game with that offense. But that defense is going to need to earn its paycheck too if they want to make it past the divisional round.

Like you, I picked the Raiders to take the next step this year. I picked them to go 10-6 and reach the playoffs as a wild card team. This next game with the Chiefs is a pivotal game for both teams. If the Raiders win it, it is high time we give them due credit and recognize them as our chief adversary (see what I did there?) in the West this year.

 

[iknowftbll]

My picks for this weeks games between the Broncos and Chargers and the Chiefs and Raiders:

Broncos @ Chargers: Despite the Broncos pulling it together to bring it to a 1-score loss, they were never really in the game with the Falcons. A 23-16 final doesn't look bad, and the defense actually played a pretty solid game against the league's best offense, but the Broncos got pushed around by the Falcons bottom-tier defense and never were a threat to win this one. This is uncharacteristic of Kubiak's Broncos, with the only other example of such a game in Kubiak's tenure was the 29-13 loss to the Chiefs last year. On a short week, the Broncos should have Trevor Siemian back, and may be adding Stephenson and Green back to the huddle. For those of you who are not keeping track, it's not a coincidence that the Broncos run game tapered off with the loss of these two players so there return is significant. But the Broncos will also be without Kubiak for this one. Special teams coach Joe DeCamillis will fill in for Kubiak.

Meanwhile the Chargers are sitting on an ugly 1-4 record, and this on the heals of an ugly 4-12 season. And like last season, the Chargers have been close in every game. Despite a rash of injuries, this Chargers team shows no quit. They had themselves in a spot to tie the game at 34 yesterday, but fumbled the snap on the FG attempt. The good news is Joey Bosa looked great in his debut, and with the Chargers returning home for a short week Bosa will be a critical part in the Chargers game plan against the Broncos.

On their best day I don't think the Broncos offense is as good as the Chargers, but it's still a pretty solid unit in its own right, and much improved over last year's unit. This is a 4-1 team up against a 1-4 team, but I think this one is going to be close. The Broncos defense should be the difference maker in this one. Broncos 24, Chargers 20.

Chiefs @ Raiders: The Raiders offense is easily one of the best in the league at this point, with their defense bringing up the rear across the board. Still they are either making plays when they need to or getting a couple breaks. That's a workable improvement over other Raiders teams of recent years. This team has a lot of momentum behind it and unlike other Raiders teams now believes it can win every week. That's a powerful motivator in the NFL, especially for a young, up and coming team like the Raiders. Shedding a culture of losing is hard to do, but the Raiders appear to be on their way.

The Chiefs are off to a slow start again, after getting rave reviews and copious amounts of hype prior to the season beginning. They are coming off a bye, and Andy Reid has something like an 11-2 or so record in games after bye weeks. Add to it the Chiefs just got annihilated 43-14 by the Steelers going into their bye week, so they've had a lot of time for brooding and soul searching. It's not uncommon for a good team, after having their lunch money stolen from them like that to respond. For example, look at the Steelers the week before they pound the Chiefs. The catch for this one: I am not so certain the Chiefs are a "good" team. Oh, I think they are solid, no doubt. This Reid-coached Chiefs team has been the best thing in KC since the Montana years, as the team is enjoying 3 straight winning seasons. But I just don't know how good the Chiefs really are. Their offense is underperforming and their defense, while still pretty solid, can be had.

This week I think the Chiefs get the ship at least partially righted on offense, but that unit will struggle to keep up with the Raiders. They should be able to move the ball against the Raiders, even score, but they are going to have to be mistake free on offense. On defense...like I said, they are solid but they can be had. Raiders 30, Chiefs 27.

I've been hit and miss with stuff like this but on a week with the AFC West all playing each other I was just too excited. Plus it helped that I had Columbus Day off.

 

[CEH]

San Diego has a +10 point differential and is the #2 offense in the nfl
Can't ever recall a team being 3 games under .500 but out scoring the opponents
This game is not against a hapless chargers
Feels just like the atl game

 

[iknowftbll]

At 2-4 and with a lot of football ahead the Chargers just may have saved their season. The bad news for them is they're still 2-4 and that includes 1-2 vs AFC West teams. And it's going to be extremely hard for them to turn around and play the Broncos again in just two weeks, this time in Denver.

The Broncos are searching for answers after dropping 2 games in a 5 day span. In both games the defense, while not perfect, was good enough for the team to win had the offense given an even average performance. Holding the Falcons to 23 then the Chargers to 19 in a 5 day span is actually pretty impressive, despite the Falcons being able to exploit some match ups and the Chargers mounting some pretty impressive drives. The 23 and 21 total points respectively represent the lowest point totals for the Falcons and Chargers, each of whom are #1 and #2 in the league in scoring. Once again: Had the offense managed even and average performance the Broncos could have won. This team isn't a lost cause, but there's room for improvement on both sides of the ball. Especially on offense.

 

[CEH]

Could it be like this in the AFC this year,

NE is going to roll with their 2 TE sets. Pitts will beat the AFCN by 2 games clear. Everyone else is just buying time hoping those two teams have injuries to derail their dominance.

 

[CEH]

Both KC and oak look good
KC can run the hell out of the ball and Oak has a stud QB
KC 7 for 8 for the year on 3rd and 1 all rushes

 

[CEH]

torn
Rooting for Oak to win
If KC wins all 3 teams would have 2 losses and KC 2-0 in the division
Would rather have one team to beat for division instead of two

 

[iknowftbll]

torn
Rooting for Oak to win
If KC wins all 3 teams would have 2 losses and KC 2-0 in the division
Would rather have one team to beat for division instead of two

The Broncos have 2 cracks at both teams so I'm just enjoying the show these two are putting on right now. It's 26-10 Chiefs right now. That Raiders defense just isn't very good.

 

[iknowftbll]

Well I missed on both AFC West games. In fact as far as picks go, I'm doing really bad this year with my weekly picks. No matter, as the only ones I really care about are the ones involving the Broncos. With that said, the AFC West just got a whole lot more interesting.

Consider:

Raiders: 4-2
Broncos: 4-2
Chiefs: 3-2
Chargers: 2-4

I tell you not a single one of these teams is out of it. This is going to be a very competitive division this year. And not for the same reason the AFC South is competitive. That division is shaping up to be a close race as well, but that's only because all teams involved are weak teams. These AFC West teams are all pretty good in their own right.

What a year we're in for. Go Broncos!

 

[CEH]

Well I missed on both AFC West games. In fact as far as picks go, I'm doing really bad this year with my weekly picks. No matter, as the only ones I really care about are the ones involving the Broncos. With that said, the AFC West just got a whole lot more interesting.

Consider:

Raiders: 4-2
Broncos: 4-2
Chiefs: 3-2
Chargers: 2-4

I tell you not a single one of these teams is out of it. This is going to be a very competitive division this year. And not for the same reason the AFC South is competitive. That division is shaping up to be a close race as well, but that's only because all teams involved are weak teams. These AFC West teams are all pretty good in their own right.

What a year we're in for. Go Broncos!

Not liking the fact KC can trot out 2 RB who at any time could go
For 100 all the while nursing thier best Rb Charles back into action.
At this point looks like any Afcw team can beat any other Afcw team