AFC West Roundup

[CEH]

Let this soak in for a minute

Lose tonight

and Denver is playing fpr last place in teh AFCW next week

 

[iknowftbll]

Let this soak in for a minute

Lose tonight

and Denver is playing fpr last place in teh AFCW next week

I said it before the season started: this is a good division this year. Whoever finishes last in the AFC West would likely be a contender were they in a division like the AFC South.

 

[Clayton]

Saints @Arrowhead--The Saints have been the 2nd highest scoring offense in the NFL only behind the Falcons so far this year. The Chiefs have played 2 teams so far this year that are in the top-10 for scoring offenses. They gave up 27 to the Chargers and 43 to the Steelers. So the Chiefs defense has had their struggles against high powered offenses. Now one does have to wonder if they have taken the same path as last year of getting some things right during the Bye Week as that defense looked much better against a good Raiders offense this past week. The nice thing for the Chiefs is the Saints right now have statistically the worst defense in football. So this game actually could turn into a bit of a shoot out. I still like the Chiefs at home though against this defense and especially with the Chiefs ability to run the football being able to control the clock. Chiefs 27 Saints 24

Not sure I'm ridiculously impressed with the Chiefs performance against the Saints but a win is a win. Both teams took advantage of mismatches (WRs on LBs, DEs) for big plays.

They took control of the game with a turnover, let the Saints come back and then the Saints imploded at the end. Saints played Raiders, Chargers and Chiefs fairly even in many regards but they just don't have it this year. Saints game is probably going to bottom out the Chiefs into playing the easiest defenses in football up to this point.

Chiefs defense seems to always have 1-2 meh players out there at any given time. Zombo and White in particular. The offense is going to need to find one more gear somewhere. I think there is hope with some things coming into place the past 2 weeks but 2 weeks is not yet a trend.

Chargers have to be kicking themselves a bit. This was their year and they just imploded. Looks like they are still sticking around but they couldve been great.

I'm seeing a good, tough division with no contenders currently. This can change quickly.

 

[iknowftbll]

I'll get some quick predictions in for the AFC West this week. Before I do, let's take a look at the division, top to bottom:

Oakland Raiders, 5-2: The Raiders continue to outshoot their opponents, and despite that defense being bottom tier they approach the halfway mark of the season in great shape as far as wins and losses go. Can it be sustained? It's a fair question. Another fair question is can the Raiders defense improve to the degree that it becomes serviceable enough to make the team a legit threat in the playoffs.

Denver Broncos, 5-2: The biggest drop off from last season is without question the run defense. The offense is actually a little better than last year's unit, and the defense as a whole, despite the run defense suffering, is still really good. Especially when you consider the quality of the offenses the Broncos have faced. The Broncos have held some really good offenses in check, with the #1 and #2 offenses scoring just 23 and 21 points respectively (and 2 of the Chargers points came on a safety, so can't be charged to the defense). That's impressive.

Kansas City Chiefs: 4-2: The Chiefs looked a bit inconsistent early in the season but appear to have righted the ship for now. I anticipated a drop off from their defense and noticeable improvement on their offense but it's really just more of the same on both sides of the ball for them. That's not necessarily a bad thing, given the Chiefs 3-year run of late. They also have a slate of winnable games ahead of them between now and their first game with the Broncos. But I'm skeptical of their viability in the post season, should they get there. They have the look of a team good enough to get into the playoffs, but not make much noise once they get there.

San Diego Chargers, 3-4: Even at 1-4 I refused to leave this team for dead. We wouldn't be that lucky. Despite an obscene number of season ending injuries this team has clawed itself into a respectable position this season. On offense they are #2 in scoring, and that's a big part of what Rivers brings to the table. And don't look now but on defense that front 7 is playing some pretty solid football. For the time being, this is without question the best last place team in the league.

Predictions:

Raiders 27, Buccaneers 21: I think it's going to be tough for the Raiders to win consecutive road games in Florida, but they somehow pull it off. Perhaps this will reach OT and the Raiders put it away with a TD.

Chiefs 34, Colts 30: In recent years the Colts have had the Chiefs number in Indy, but recent games don't matter to this one. The Chiefs have the better defense by a longshot and are functional enough on offense to be able to keep up with the Colts. Luck gets his shots in but the Colts defense just can't get a stop when they need it.

Broncos 24, Chargers 14. Offensively it'll be more of the same: Just don't make that catastrophic mistake that sets the team up for failure. On defense it's going to be a huge effort from everyone to make sure this Chargers team doesn't run away with it again. While they did a great job keeping scoring under control, those long drives allowed doomed the Broncos in the first effort.

After week 8:

Raiders: 6-2

Broncos: 6-2

Chiefs: 5-2

Chargers: 3-5

 

[iknowftbll]

My predictions for this week's AFC West action:

Jaguars @ Chiefs: First let me say this: so far the Chiefs are better overall than I thought they'd be. I figured they'd regress on defense and that the improvements on offense wouldn't be enough to overcome the declines. With that said, I still think Andy Reid will out coach himself a couple times before the season is over and this game is a good candidate for just such a game. The Chiefs are at home against a lesser opponent, and while all signed indicate they should run the Jags right out of the stadium the Chiefs under Reid have stumbled in similar situations in years past. Still, Reid's occasional bone headedness is so inexplicable that it's impossible to predict, so I'm making the safe prediction here. Chiefs 34, Jaguars 17.

Titans @ Chargers: The Chargers defense does not look good in the stat sheet unless due to to some early fatal flaws. If you don't look at the splits, you'll miss their front 7 is playing really well lately. With Bosa's arrival they suddenly have a really good pass rush and they aren't awful against the run anymore. That'll be put to the test against the Titans who run the ball very effectively. The Titans don't seem a threat to light up the scoreboard either, though they have put up some serviceable numbers against bottom-tier defenses in the past few weeks. Defensively they're functional too, so much so I wouldn't rule them out of the running for the weak AFC South title. But they are going up against a high revving and explosive offense in San Diego, and the Chargers at 3-5 need to win in order to keep their season hopes alive. Chargers 27, Titans 24.

Broncos @ Raiders: This is the game of the week. The Broncos on defense have picked up where they left off, despite being a little vulnerable against the run. Part of that can be attributed to the offenses they've played and a good part of it can be attributed to their secondary being even more ridiculous this year than they were last year. And that secondary is going to get a workout this week from Carr and his duo of Cooper and Crabtree. The Raiders are going to get their shots in, no doubt. But it's going to be hard for them to do it consistently enough against that defense to pull away. Defensively the Raiders always seem to do just enough to seal the deal. And they do have a good enough front that the Broncos O-line is going to have its hands full. But this unit is exploitable and though the Broncos offense is not impressive, they've shown the ability to (like the Raiders defense) do just enough to get it done. Broncos 31, Raiders 20.

 

[iknowftbll]

After 10 out of 16 games are in the books, the AFC West looks like this:

Raiders: 8-2
Chiefs: 7-3
Broncos: 7-3
Chargers: 4-6

I expected this to be a good division but I didn't think it would be this good. Let's take a look at the remaining schedules for each team. All 4 have some fairly tough sledding ahead.

Raiders:

vs Panthers
vs Bills
@ Chiefs
@ Chargers
vs Colts
@ Broncos

After their win last night the Raiders actually slide into the #1 playoff seed over the Patriots. But barring a meltdown from the Patriots that remaining slate looks tough enough that I doubt the Raiders can hold that spot. I'd give the Panthers and Bills only slim chances in Oakland, but that home stretch is as tough as it gets.

Chiefs:

@ Broncos
@ Falcons
vs Raiders
vs Titans
vs Broncos
@ Chargers

Another pretty stout remaining slate. The Chiefs get two tough road games but three consecutive home games softens the blow. The Chiefs are similar to the Broncos in the sense they really need that defense to come through in order to win. Half their remaining opponents have explosive offenses that will give the Chiefs issues if their own offense needs to keep up. Still, they did beat the Raiders already and their defense can be the best in the league any given week.

Broncos:

vs Chiefs
@ Jaguars
@ Titans
vs Patriots
@ Chiefs
vs Raiders

It doesn't get any easier for the Broncos than it does for the Raiders and Chiefs. Even the Jaguars and Titans won't be easy outs because the Broncos have historically struggled in early starts in Florida and the Titans have been playing better ball after a 1-3 start. From where we sit now, that 3 game home stretch at the end is probably the hardest in the league. I could change significantly between now and then, though.

Chargers:

@ Texans
vs Buccaneers
@ Panthers
vs Raiders
@ Browns
vs Chiefs

The Chargers shot at reaching the playoffs is all but over. With that said, they probably have the easiest remaining slate when you consider the toughest remaining games are against division rivals where you can pretty much throw out the record books. Outside those contests the Chargers have 4 winnable games and while I don't think it's going to happen, I wouldn't rule out a 6 game surge that sees this team elbow its way back into the playoff picture.

Those are the remaining slates. Something else to keep an eye on are the fringe playoff teams. Right now the Dolphins appear to be the biggest threat. At 6-4 they are just a game behind the Broncos and Chiefs for the last playoff spot, and they are playing pretty well right now. Behind them is a litany of 5-5 teams all with a legit shot as well. Now we know from experience the next two weeks is likely going to wash out at least one of these competitors, but the Broncos can't flinch because it's a crowded playoff picture right now.

Plus the Broncos still have a legitimate shot to win the AFC West. But it's a chaotic and tough road ahead...for all AFC West teams.

 

[58crash]

We are going to win the AFC West .

The Panthers will be the Difference as they are up against the wall

That and I see our team getting its OL as it did last season good enough ..

The Raiders are going on a black and Blue tour ..

 

[cdumler7]

We are going to win the AFC West .

The Panthers will be the Difference as they are up against the wall

That and I see our team getting its OL as it did last season good enough ..

The Raiders are going on a black and Blue tour ..

I really hope the Panthers or Bills or both can help us out with knocking the Raiders down a peg. I think Cam can have a career day against that Raiders defense. I mean they did just make Osweiler look like a competent QB last night. The problem will be though that Panthers defense against the Raiders offense. With Kuechley looking like he could miss the game I just don't like that match up at all. The Bills I just can't quite get a grip on this year. They look good one week then fall apart the next. Taylor will need to have a big day and that Bills defense will need to show up like they have done in some big games in the past.

Definitely a tough road for whoever wins the AFC West. They will have definitely earned it. Obviously hope that it is us but at this point all I care about is just making the playoffs. I would love to win the division of course and get those home field games but I actually will feel much better when I know we have made the playoffs about our chances.

 

[58crash]

I really hope the Panthers or Bills or both can help us out with knocking the Raiders down a peg. I think Cam can have a career day against that Raiders defense. I mean they did just make Osweiler look like a competent QB last night. The problem will be though that Panthers defense against the Raiders offense. With Kuechley looking like he could miss the game I just don't like that match up at all. The Bills I just can't quite get a grip on this year. They look good one week then fall apart the next. Taylor will need to have a big day and that Bills defense will need to show up like they have done in some big games in the past.

Definitely a tough road for whoever wins the AFC West. They will have definitely earned it. Obviously hope that it is us but at this point all I care about is just making the playoffs. I would love to win the division of course and get those home field games but I actually will feel much better when I know we have made the playoffs about our chances.

That is a huge amount of flying and very physical couple games

 

[cdumler7]

That is a huge amount of flying and very physical couple games

They are both home games. The Raiders are in a stretch of 3 straight home games (given one was in Mexico obviously). The nice thing is the Raiders have actually been worse at home than on the road this season. So maybe one of those teams squeezes out a victory

 

[Clayton]

Chargers look like they have the easiest remaining schedule and Broncos have 1 gimmie (Jags) and everything else is brutal.

I also think the Dolphins are going to get a Wild Card unless they break down. I'm honestly not ridiculously impressed with any of the AFC West teams and suspect they might beat each other up down the stretch.

Oaklands D is awful. 'nuff said

KC can't score TDs and can't get their D off the field. 31st in redzone TD% and 30th in 3rd down defense because outside of Marcus Peters every CB is overmatched especially with Gaines chronically injured.

Denver seems inconsistent. Not sure they'll make the playoffs but probably the most dangerous if they do because Defense wins stuff.

There is a good chance that if KC and Denver split that they'll knock each other out of the race given their remaining schedule.

 

[CEH]

Oakland and KC are in the driver's seat right now because Denver has split with SD.

Common opponents is the 2nd tie breaker then conference. That is why the Houston game hurt . We need to root for Carolina or Colts to beat Oak .

If Oak sweeps San Diego Denver will have to sweep KC. Ugh.

 

[Mingo]

Oakland and KC are in the driver's seat right now because Denver has split with SD.

Common opponents is the 2nd tie breaker then conference. That is why the Houston game hurt . We need to root for Carolina or Colts to beat Oak .

If Oak sweeps San Diego Denver will have to sweep KC. Ugh.

The Broncos will win out. I'm not kidding.

The Broncos will be fresher - at the end of the season and have greater depth than the other teams in the division. The Raiders are especially thin - for injury. The Broncos will sweep KC - because they have to.

 

[CEH]

The Broncos will win out. I'm not kidding.

The Broncos will be fresher - at the end of the season and have greater depth than the other teams in the division. The Raiders are especially thin - for injury. The Broncos will sweep KC - because they have to.

If Oak beats Carolina Sunday afternoon Denver must win Sunday night or I'd say the division title streak is pretty much over

 

[iknowftbll]

If Oak beats Carolina Sunday afternoon Denver must win Sunday night or I'd say the division title streak is pretty much over

I really wish ESPN would get their playoff machine up for this year because that's the best way to project and know what tie breakers would benefit who with the right combinations of W-L down the stretch.

 

[iknowftbll]

I really wish ESPN would get their playoff machine up for this year because that's the best way to project and know what tie breakers would benefit who with the right combinations of W-L down the stretch.

Okay, never mind. It's up. I encourage everyone to go to the below link and project wins and losses through the end of the season that way we can see how potential tying scenarios affect the team.

ESPN.com's 2016 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios

 

[CEH]

Denver should have the tie breaker on MIA having beaten Cincy while Mia lost to Cincy. Strength of victory should also be in Denver's favor and we still have to play Tenn head to head so that will be the tie breaker in the AFCS teams.

 

[iknowftbll]

Denver should have the tie breaker on MIA having beaten Cincy while Mia lost to Cincy. Strength of victory should also be in Denver's favor and we still have to play Tenn head to head so that will be the tie breaker in the AFCS teams.

I'd like to say the Broncos just win out, finish 13-3 and that takes care of that with respect to all these tie breakers. But the truth is I think they're going to get some fits from some teams down the stretch. The good news is I have tinkered around with that playoff machine quite a bit and if there are a lot of combinations out there that have the Broncos in the playoffs even at just 10-6 and with multiple competitors finishing 10-6. That also includes several different combinations of 10-6 for the Broncos so there is still an incredible amount of flexibility and when you think of having to go 3-3 down the stretch it really doesn't seem all that daunting. I happen to believe they can go 4-2 down the stretch for a finish of 11-5. There are a few combinations that put the Broncos as AFC West champs again at 11-5, even if the Raiders finish 11-5. These are not far-fetched scenarios either because the Raiders schedule includes 3 divisional road games, all within the last 4 weeks of the season. I definitely like the Broncos chances of making the playoffs this year, and still believe they have a strong chance at another division title.

 

[Mingo]

If Oak beats Carolina Sunday afternoon Denver must win Sunday night or I'd say the division title streak is pretty much over

Everything in the NFL has a thin line separating success from failure. Which are the teams who consistently achieve success and which are the teams who are inconsistent in achieving success? That is the better indicator of the outcome than the suggestion you correctly show above.

Though - I will say - as the election for president showed - sometimes the outside chance prevails and that is what makes it all interesting.

 

[iknowftbll]

Chargers @ Texans, Chargers win. Chargers 5-6 and while nobody is going to look at a 5-6 team and be impressed I think it says a lot about the AFC West that the last place team is that good. The NFC East is even better right now, which is really saying something given the winner of that division last year was the Redskins at 9-7. What a difference a year makes!