9/3 GDT Slytherin @ Giants

[tzill]

We're definitely a more balanced team than in 2010, with a little worse pitching (especially the STARTERS) and a notably better offense. Will being more balanced help or hinder vs total pitching domination?

We'll see if we make the playoffs. And even then we won't know for sure, because playoff results are almost random (SSS).

FIFY

 

[msgkings322]

FIFY

Agree to disagree.

 

[gp956]

Wouldn't a standard move be a good move? Or else why do it at all?

Perhaps in an era where everyone gets a trophy. It certainly wasn't an example of Bochy in "playoff mode," as Marty was asserting.

 

[SFGRTB]

Perhaps in an era where everyone gets a trophy. It certainly wasn't an example of Bochy in "playoff mode," as Marty was asserting.

Agreed

 

[calsnowskier]

Agree to disagree.

Are you saying that you believe the pen is a larger downgrade from 2010 than the rotation?

If you are, I have to agree with tz. The rotation is a good deal less dominant than it was in 2010...

Ace: '10 Timmeh vs '12 Cain

Cain is a stud, but Timmeh was epic-good.

Edge: 2010

#2: '10 Cain vs '12 Bum

This one is close. probably too close to call. Cain's historic run in the playoffs HAS to play, though...

Edge: 2010

#3: '10 Bum vs '12 Vogey

Bum was a kid. He did well in the playoffs, but hard to argue with the 2-year run that Vogey has had (recent troubles excepted).

Edge: 2012

#4: 2010 Durty vs 2012 Zeets/Timmeh

Durty was inconsistent, but he still had a sick WHIP and had yet to completely give up. Zeets and Timmeh are total coin flips this year.

Edge: Push


Pen:

2010: Wilson, Romo, Ramirez, Lopez, Affeldt, Mota, Casilla
2012: Romo, Lopez, Affeldt, Mota, Casilla, Kontos, Mijeras

Personnel-wise, The pens are very similar. Wilson, Ramirez are replaced by Mijeras and Kontos. The problem is that that is a closer and a 7th inning guy replaced by two 6th inning guys.

However, personnel-wise is not the only way to look at it. Romo is more dominant as a ROOGY now than he was and JA had a very rough 2010. Casilla has also matured into a near-closer. Kontos and Mijeras, while only 6th inning guys, are probably both under-utilized in that role. They could both be 7th inning guys or better on many teams.

The main issue between 2010 and 2012 (and it is major) is the lack of of a closer this year. The rest of the pen is probably a near push with 2010.

I feel that both the pen and rotation are less than 2010, but the 2010 rotation was SOOO stellar that the 2012 version HAS to be viewed as a larger drop-off.

 

[gp956]

2012 Staff ERA+ --> 95
2010 Staff ERA+ --> 117

I think we agree that 2010 had a better staff.


Starting staffs:

2010 sOPS+: 88
2010 ERA: 3.54
2012 sOPS+: 88
2012 ERA: 3.71

Relief Corps:

2010 sOPS+: 88
2010 ERA: 2.99
2012 sOPS+: 107
2012 ERA: 3.74


Surprisingly the starting staffs are close. Probably thanks to Todd Wellemeyer, and Bad Zito. But clearly, the overall relief corps was better in 2010. I do believe, though, that if you only look at high leverage situations that the staffs are pretty close. The lack of a good innings eater in 2012 has skewed the overall stats, I think.

 

[SFGRTB]

Are you saying that you believe the pen is a larger downgrade from 2010 than the rotation?

If you are, I have to agree with tz. The rotation is a good deal less dominant than it was in 2010...

Ace: '10 Timmeh vs '12 Cain

Cain is a stud, but Timmeh was epic-good.

Edge: 2010

#2: '10 Cain vs '12 Bum

This one is close. probably too close to call. Cain's historic run in the playoffs HAS to play, though...

Edge: 2010

#3: '10 Bum vs '12 Vogey

Bum was a kid. He did well in the playoffs, but hard to argue with the 2-year run that Vogey has had (recent troubles excepted).

Edge: 2012

#4: 2010 Durty vs 2012 Zeets/Timmeh

Durty was inconsistent, but he still had a sick WHIP and had yet to completely give up. Zeets and Timmeh are total coin flips this year.

Edge: Push


Pen:

2010: Wilson, Romo, Ramirez, Lopez, Affeldt, Mota, Casilla
2012: Romo, Lopez, Affeldt, Mota, Casilla, Kontos, Mijeras

Personnel-wise, The pens are very similar. Wilson, Ramirez are replaced by Mijeras and Kontos. The problem is that that is a closer and a 7th inning guy replaced by two 6th inning guys.

However, personnel-wise is not the only way to look at it. Romo is more dominant as a ROOGY now than he was and JA had a very rough 2010. Casilla has also matured into a near-closer. Kontos and Mijeras, while only 6th inning guys, are probably both under-utilized in that role. They could both be 7th inning guys or better on many teams.

The main issue between 2010 and 2012 (and it is major) is the lack of of a closer this year. The rest of the pen is probably a near push with 2010.

I feel that both the pen and rotation are less than 2010, but the 2010 rotation was SOOO stellar that the 2012 version HAS to be viewed as a larger drop-off.

The lack of Weez in this Pen now hurts, but I think if he was in there, this would be a better Pen than in 2010. Romo is a better pitcher than he was then, Affeldt bounced back, and guys just settle into their roles. Weez in the 9th, Romo/Lopez in 8th, Casilla/Affeldt in 7th, Kontos/Mijares in 6th. That would easily make any game a 5 inning game, if the starter gets through the 5th with a lead FYWW. Unfortunately, thats why I give the 2010 Pen an edge, even though there are better arms in there now.

For the rotation, Tim (with the exception of Sept./Oct.) wasn't as good as Cain has been, the 2 slot is a push, the 3 slot goes to Volgy (despite recent troubles) and the 4/5 are pushes IMO because with Tim/Zito this year we atleast get some good starts and some bad, in 2010 you never knew with Sanchez and you knew it was going to be bad with Zito. 2012 gets the edge, but they really need to step up here soon, they've been struggling lately.

 

[msgkings322]

2012 Staff ERA+ --> 95
2010 Staff ERA+ --> 117

I think we agree that 2010 had a better staff.


Starting staffs:

2010 sOPS+: 88
2010 ERA: 3.54
2012 sOPS+: 88
2012 ERA: 3.71

Relief Corps:

2010 sOPS+: 88
2010 ERA: 2.99
2012 sOPS+: 107
2012 ERA: 3.74


Surprisingly the starting staffs are close. Probably thanks to Todd Wellemeyer, and Bad Zito. But clearly, the overall relief corps was better in 2010. I do believe, though, that if you only look at high leverage situations that the staffs are pretty close. The lack of a good innings eater in 2012 has skewed the overall stats, I think.

I love it when I pull some opinion out of my backside and it turns out the stats kind of back me up.



As you guys are probably onto by now, I'm not a rigorous 'let's check the computer!' kind of fan. This is just BS-ing about a kids game. It's fun and games, literally.

So it just 'felt' to me like the staff wasn't as dominant as 2010, and that the pen was slightly more shaky than the starters, relative to 2010.

But back to my point...do we prefer a super pitching, ok offense team or the more balanced one we have now? It means less 'Torture' (TM), but isn't the old cliche that pitching wins championships?

 

[gp956]

I love it when I pull some opinion out of my backside and it turns out the stats kind of back me up.



As you guys are probably onto by now, I'm not a rigorous 'let's check the computer!' kind of fan. This is just BS-ing about a kids game. It's fun and games, literally.

So it just 'felt' to me like the staff wasn't as dominant as 2010, and that the pen was slightly more shaky than the starters, relative to 2010.

But back to my point...do we prefer a super pitching, ok offense team or the more balanced one we have now? It means less 'Torture' (TM), but isn't the old cliche that pitching wins championships?

I know I'm always surprised when you turn out to be right.

 

[msgkings322]

I know I'm always surprised when you turn out to be right.

Ouch, babe!

 

[gp956]

...and I'll take a middle of the road offense with a historically great pitching staff.

 

[gp956]

Ouch, babe!

 

[calsnowskier]

You are a saber guy, and fully understand all the stats. I acknowledge the power of sabermetrics, but really don't understand all the more advanced stats. I am not going to get in that convo with you. I will concede that.

However, you use stats that include Wellemeyer. That alone is a pretty significant flaw in your numbers. Welle had no bearing on the playoffs.

Also, looking at season stats for the pen thus far this season ignores that fact that Mota has been gone the whole year. It also includes Hensley, who almost certainly will not be part of the post-season pen. We have our long-guy now. Will he be effective going into the postseason? Who knows. But it is a COMPLETE different look to the pen.

Looking at these season stats would be similar to looking at the season long offensive stats of the 2010 team and saying that was the team that went into the playoffs. The playoff Giants offense was not half as bad as the season stats indicated due to all the transactions the Gs made during the season that year.

Stats are awesome. They are absolutely necessary in this game, and they are one of the reason I love this game. But they are not the end-all-be-all.

 

[msgkings322]

...and I'll take a middle of the road offense with a historically great pitching staff.

I think I would too. FYWW and the playoff starting pitching we saw was really awesome.

 

[gp956]

You are a saber guy, and fully understand all the stats. I acknowledge the power of sabermetrics, but really don't understand all the more advanced stats. I am not going to get in that convo with you. I will concede that.

Actually, mostly, I'm an old-school guy.

However, you use stats that include Wellemeyer. That alone is a pretty significant flaw in your numbers. Welle had no bearing on the playoffs.

That's not a flaw in the "numbers". At the most it's a flaw in the question. I interpreted msgking's assertion as pertaining to the whole staffs for the entire year. I guess you want to talk about playoff performance and roster projections - that's fine - but I didn't address my post to you.

Also, looking at season stats for the pen thus far this season ignores that fact that Mota has been gone the whole year. It also includes Hensley, who almost certainly will not be part of the post-season pen. We have our long-guy now. Will he be effective going into the postseason? Who knows. But it is a COMPLETE different look to the pen.

So you're saying the 2012 relief corps would have been as good as the 2010 had they had Mota instead of Hensley? OK. I won't argue that. Though, I don't see how you go about proving that assertion. You might want to attempt it.

(you might also want to notice that I mentioned the lack of a 2012 "innings eater" probably skewed that stats - go look!)

Looking at these season stats would be similar to looking at the season long offensive stats of the 2010 team and saying that was the team that went into the playoffs. The playoff Giants offense was not half as bad as the season stats indicated due to all the transactions the Gs made during the season that year.

Yeah, I get it. No need to repeat that your focus is on projections of playoff performances. You might try assuming your audience isn't an idiot that need the rule of three in order to be swayed by an argument. Not that I'm swayed by your "argument," BTW.

Stats are awesome. They are absolutely necessary in this game, and they are one of the reason I love this game. But they are not the end-all-be-all.

I agree. Stats are a poor substitute for knowledge.

 

[calsnowskier]

Actually, mostly, I'm an old-school guy.

Fair enough, but you do tend to bring a LOT of advanced stats to the table. That is what I meant...

That's not a flaw in the "numbers". At the most it's a flaw in the question. I interpreted msgking's assertion as pertaining to the whole staffs for the entire year. I guess you want to talk about playoff performance and roster projections - that's fine - but I didn't address my post to you.

My bad...

So you're saying the 2012 relief corps would have been as good as the 2010 had they had Mota instead of Hensley? OK. I won't argue that. Though, I don't see how you go about proving that assertion. You might want to attempt it.

I am not saying that. I am simply saying (agreeing with you??) that the pen of the bulk of the year is not the same as it is now due to Mota being back. I would never attempt to prove something that is unprovable, so I will chose not to take this challenge.

(you might also want to notice that I mentioned the lack of a 2012 "innings eater" probably skewed that stats - go look!)

I did, and I thought that was what I was addressing...

Yeah, I get it. No need to repeat that your focus is on projections of playoff performances. You might try assuming your audience isn't an idiot that need the rule of three in order to be swayed by an argument. Not that I'm swayed by your "argument," BTW.

Please never assume that my assumption is that you are idiot. You are not.

If you got that from my post (and I am not sure where you got it) I apologize.

If you are simply attacking my writing style, fair enough. I like to restate my general gist in a longer post. I think it makes long posts easier to read/comprehend. I also write them on the fly here. I do not create an outline beforehand. This is just for bullshitting purposes.

I agree. Stats are a poor substitute for knowledge.

At least there is something we agree on...

Actually, I THINK we are saying the same thing. I believe the biggest drop off is in the rotation. I think you agree. I responded to your post believing it was in response to mine, defending MSGs assertion that the pen is a bigger drop off.

 

[tzill]

...and I'll take a middle of the road offense with a historically great pitching staff.

Especially when you have three starters making $20MM+. For the resources committed to the SP, it's been a bit underwhelming this year. Of course, Bum and Tron have been underpaid and Zeet's contract was a sunk cost. But Timmah has hurt...a lot.

 

[tzill]

Actually, mostly, I'm an old-school guy.



That's not a flaw in the "numbers". At the most it's a flaw in the question. I interpreted msgking's assertion as pertaining to the whole staffs for the entire year. I guess you want to talk about playoff performance and roster projections - that's fine - but I didn't address my post to you.



So you're saying the 2012 relief corps would have been as good as the 2010 had they had Mota instead of Hensley? OK. I won't argue that. Though, I don't see how you go about proving that assertion. You might want to attempt it.

(you might also want to notice that I mentioned the lack of a 2012 "innings eater" probably skewed that stats - go look!)



Yeah, I get it. No need to repeat that your focus is on projections of playoff performances. You might try assuming your audience isn't an idiot that need the rule of three in order to be swayed by an argument. Not that I'm swayed by your "argument," BTW.




I agree. Stats are a poor substitute for knowledge.

Soooo....you're saying you're an idiot swayed by the rule of ONE?

 

[gp956]

If you are simply attacking my writing style, fair enough. I like to restate my general gist in a longer post. I think it makes long posts easier to read/comprehend. I also write them on the fly here. I do not create an outline beforehand. This is just for bullshitting purposes.

Yeah, I prefer to get right to the point, and I assume the audience can keep up, until proven otherwise.

Actually, I THINK we are saying the same thing. I believe the biggest drop off is in the rotation. I think you agree.

I agree that right now, and projecting forward, this year's rotation is less talented than the 2010 stretch run/playoff squad. But who knows, these guys may step up, exceed expectations, and match up well with that 2010 group. And in a couple of years we'll think that it was all predictable.

I responded to your post believing it was in response to mine, defending MSGs assertion that the pen is a bigger drop off.

The pen is the bigger drop if we're talking about the full year and every situation. And I think this is more of what msgking meant. If we're talking about high leverage situations from here on out, I like the core of this year's group. They're not as reliant on one individual being nails on any given night, and they offer specific match-up problems for other teams.

 

[tzill]

ERA+ for 2010, 2012 SP

2010
Bum 131
Chez 127
Cain 124
Tim 114
Zeets 94
Wellemeyer 69

2012
Cain 118
Tron 117
Bum 115
Zeets 78
Tim 68

By this metric, not close.