Game Thread: 8/7 1-year Curse @ 3-year Curse

[Stokes1931]

Pitches thrown-

Cubs 118

Giants 153

 

[calsnowskier]

 

[calsnowskier]

 

[LHG]

I am not a huge believer in the theory that everyone should have approx the same BABIP.

If a guy has a low BABIP, it could bean he isn't getting good wood on the ball. It could mean he is a predictable hitter and he has a shift put on against him. It could mean he is injured.

BABIP is NOT simply an indicator of luck, as many try to argue.

I would think you are correct on that, just like not every guy has the same amount of home runs, the same batting average or the same walk rate. However, I think the argument on Belt is that his BABIP was lower than his career average. When a player has been around long enough that his numbers are not SSS, the idea is that his season numbers are going to go up or down to the career average. But the problem with that is there are always outlier seasons, on both sides. So the expectation can be that the player will improve his BABIP because he generally does better than that but with the understanding that it could be an outlier season.

 

[calsnowskier]

I would think you are correct on that, just like not every guy has the same amount of home runs, the same batting average or the same walk rate. However, I think the argument on Belt is that his BABIP was lower than his career average. When a player has been around long enough that his numbers are not SSS, the idea is that his season numbers are going to go up or down to the career average. But the problem with that is there are always outlier seasons, on both sides. So the expectation can be that the player will improve his BABIP because he generally does better than that but with the understanding that it could be an outlier season.

So maybe this year he had a hitch in his swing that caused him to not make good contact. Maybe he sprained a finger so couldn't swing right.

Maybe his lower BABIP was HIS fault, and not just random dumb luck. I don't think BABIP is a worthless stat, I just think people use it incorrectly.

IMHO.