6th Annual SportsHoopla Pro Pickems

[Southieinnc]

I considered switching to Tennessee thinking @HaroldSeattle surely picked the Bills.

I took TN but lost a bunch of picks by a point or less - as usual!

 

[Southieinnc]

Went out on a limb this week!
Fell out of the tree!

 

[Manster7588]

Went out on a limb this week!
Fell out of the tree!

I'm surprising myself so far. I'll fall off of that limb soon. I think what's saving me is I'm loosing games that were all loosing.

Also the Boys have allowed my homer picks to work out.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Went out on a limb this week!
Fell out of the tree!

when climbing out on limbs. When hear that crack, you are supposed to come back!

 

[fastforward]

Crazy year for picks.

 

[Manster7588]

when climbing out on limbs. When hear that crack, you are supposed to come back!

Where's the fun in that?

 

[Manster7588]

Crazy year for picks.

Are you saying that's why I'm currently TOP dog?

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Where's the fun in that?

well you wont have to worry about it.
I plan on pushing you off that limb when no one is looking

 

[Manster7588]

well you wont have to worry about it.
I plan on pushing you off that limb when no one is looking

Shit now I need to watch for my wife and you.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Shit now I need to watch for my wife and you.

she is the one that gives me updates when you venture out on that Limb!

Something about insurance & win/win something. I dont know.

 

[Manster7588]

she is the one that gives me updates when you venture out on that Limb!

Something about insurance & win/win something. I dont know.

I knew she was talking to a hitman. I was concerned it was @sonnyblack65 now that its you I ain't so worried.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

I knew she was talking to a hitman. I was concerned it was @sonnyblack65 now that its you I ain't so worried.

just the way I like it. Unconcerned!

 

[fastforward]

Are you saying that's why I'm currently TOP dog?

Err...um...I have seen how you've fared in previous years.

I'm kidding.

Seriously though this years results are fascinating. I'm the guy who is down in 14th so everyone is more than welcome to laugh themselves into a heart-attack looking at that record. The thing is that the game concept should make every pick an even 50-50 decision. Everyone should be around 50% even picking blind. As a former bookie and stats keeper I use the game to track trends and line movements. Every pick i've made in the ESPN game for the last few years is the 'value' pick comparing the average betting line as of Thursday before kickoff compared to what is essentially the betting opening line on Tuesday. If ESPN's Tuesday line is 9.5 and the betting line is 7.5 on Thursday the value is clearly to take the underdog with points. If the Thursday line is 12 it makes sense to take the favourite and give up points. Where the line was the same with less than a -115 to -105 edge i've taken whichever side the public was on. To be 41-66 or worse, (or equally 66-41 or better), with 107 50% choices is just under 1%, (according to binomial calculators). Since every pick i've made probably would have had a 51.5% edge the chances of a record this extreme moves from +10000 territory to +40000 territory. I would imagine any gambler betting the opening line and beating the 'Thursday closing line' is absolutely pulling their hair out. To quote the worst poster on SBR's gambling forum, (a guy with a betting record down 300+ units but winning this year in the NFL), "it's extreme variance".

Lines change between Thursday and kickoff so that could significantly alter pick and bet decisions. Having a good record doesn't necessarily mean someone has made good or bad decisions. I'm been surprised by certain opening spreads and by certain line movements. That said I would wager the current average record for all spread pickem's is probably at the lowest it has ever been.

 

[Manster7588]

Err...um...I have seen how you've fared in previous years.

I'm kidding.

Seriously though this years results are fascinating. I'm the guy who is down in 14th so everyone is more than welcome to laugh themselves into a heart-attack looking at that record. The thing is that the game concept should make every pick an even 50-50 decision. Everyone should be around 50% even picking blind. As a former bookie and stats keeper I use the game to track trends and line movements. Every pick i've made in the ESPN game for the last few years is the 'value' pick comparing the average betting line as of Thursday before kickoff compared to what is essentially the betting opening line on Tuesday. If ESPN's Tuesday line is 9.5 and the betting line is 7.5 on Thursday the value is clearly to take the underdog with points. If the Thursday line is 12 it makes sense to take the favourite and give up points. Where the line was the same with less than a -115 to -105 edge i've taken whichever side the public was on. To be 41-66 or worse, (or equally 66-41 or better), with 107 50% choices is just under 1%, (according to binomial calculators). Since every pick i've made probably would have had a 51.5% edge the chances of a record this extreme moves from +10000 territory to +40000 territory. I would imagine any gambler betting the opening line and beating the 'Thursday closing line' is absolutely pulling their hair out. To quote the worst poster on SBR's gambling forum, (a guy with a betting record down 300+ units but winning this year in the NFL), "it's extreme variance".

Lines change between Thursday and kickoff so that could significantly alter pick and bet decisions. Having a good record doesn't necessarily mean someone has made good or bad decisions. I'm been surprised by certain opening spreads and by certain line movements. That said I would wager the current average record for all spread pickem's is probably at the lowest it has ever been.

There's a spoiler there, but it's not showing.

Here is the spoiler "If so you might be onto something "


My history is a few good weeks surrounding by many so so weeks.

 

[fastforward]

There's a spoiler there, but it's not showing.

Here is the spoiler "If so you might be onto something "


My history is a few good weeks surrounding by many so so weeks.

I saw the spoiler, although it isn't showing now. No worries on my part. I'm merely explaining my post. People are welcome to laugh their ass off at it and especially at my record. I mean 41-66! Hell's bells!

 

[Southieinnc]

Are you saying that's why I'm currently TOP dog?

What else could it be?

 

[Southieinnc]

Err...um...I have seen how you've fared in previous years.

I'm kidding.

Seriously though this years results are fascinating. I'm the guy who is down in 14th so everyone is more than welcome to laugh themselves into a heart-attack looking at that record. The thing is that the game concept should make every pick an even 50-50 decision. Everyone should be around 50% even picking blind. As a former bookie and stats keeper I use the game to track trends and line movements. Every pick i've made in the ESPN game for the last few years is the 'value' pick comparing the average betting line as of Thursday before kickoff compared to what is essentially the betting opening line on Tuesday. If ESPN's Tuesday line is 9.5 and the betting line is 7.5 on Thursday the value is clearly to take the underdog with points. If the Thursday line is 12 it makes sense to take the favourite and give up points. Where the line was the same with less than a -115 to -105 edge i've taken whichever side the public was on. To be 41-66 or worse, (or equally 66-41 or better), with 107 50% choices is just under 1%, (according to binomial calculators). Since every pick i've made probably would have had a 51.5% edge the chances of a record this extreme moves from +10000 territory to +40000 territory. I would imagine any gambler betting the opening line and beating the 'Thursday closing line' is absolutely pulling their hair out. To quote the worst poster on SBR's gambling forum, (a guy with a betting record down 300+ units but winning this year in the NFL), "it's extreme variance".

Lines change between Thursday and kickoff so that could significantly alter pick and bet decisions. Having a good record doesn't necessarily mean someone has made good or bad decisions. I'm been surprised by certain opening spreads and by certain line movements. That said I would wager the current average record for all spread pickem's is probably at the lowest it has ever been.

Could you repeat that?

 

[Manster7588]

Back to back weeks I missed picking the first game. FWIT id have picked the lions to WIN here.

 

[fastforward]

Congratulations to the 2 competitors who are just above .500...from the 11 other competitors who are not.

 

[tabascojet]

Congratulations to the 2 competitors who are just above .500...from the 11 other competitors who are not.

That's how those big buildings get built in the desert....get the money 50/50 at best and reap the vig