49ers v. Lions - NFCCG

[Niner Outlaw]

Well, here we are again in the NFCCG for the 3rd straight year. For a quick recap...2 years ago, Tartt dropped the game-winning INT and last year Purdy was knocked out of the game. So, I can't wait to see how bad luck shits on SF this time!

The Lions will be a very tough out this week. For starters, they have a top 5 offense. 3rd in yards, 5th in points. They are 3rd in yards per passing attempt and also 5th in yards per rushing attempt. They can move the ball! That offense can be explosive or plodding, but the ball will get moved. Goff threw for 4500yds this year and 30TDs. St.brown at WR is deadly and made the All Pro--1,500yds receiving and averaging 12.7yds per catch. They also have good speed elsewhere at WR. What worries me even more than the passing game is the Lions rushing attack--Montgomery ran for 1,000yds at a 4.6ypc and Gibbs threw in 945yds at a 5.2ypc clip. And top it all off with the fact that the Lions have a very good Oline, with both OTs being near the top of the league.

If the Lions have a weakness on offense, it's at TE and IOL. The Lions star TE, rookie LaPorta, is hobbled by a knee injury and a large brace, but he's played the last 2 games. Their backup TE is out for this game. They did sign Ertz, but isn't likely to play much in this one. So, without many of their TEs, we're likely to see more spread formations and jumbo packages where they bring in an OT as an extra TE (something they do more than any other team). Their IOL has been hit by injuries. Their LG is out for this game and their center was gutting it out in the last game with a sprained knee (the guy was practically on one leg some plays).

The Detroit defense has learned to stop the run well. They are 3rd in yards per attempt allowed. That's a top 3 rushing defense! Still, in the Bucs game, the Bucs RBs had some success on the ground, particularly on draws and quick hitting inside runs, so maybe the ground game will work. Their DLine and off ball LBs are geared and focused on the run first. So that can be exploited in the passing game, where the Lions are much weaker on defense. The Lions are 29th!!! in net yards per pass attempt allowed. That is a bottom 3 pass defense. So the Lions can be had through the air.

Considering how backwards Shanny's playcalling has been, we'll probably see Kyle dial up a run-heavy game plan even though the Lions are much weaker in stopping the pass. If he has a brain in his head, this game will be about play-action passing and moving the ball through the air. That is what the defensive/offensive stats say should happen.

The Niners are a top 3 offense. We're 1st in net yards per pass attempt and 4th in yards per rushing attempt. The Niners have pro bowlers at QB, LT, TE, and RB and have very good players at both WR spots. The Niners have no excuse for not being able to move the ball. On defense, the Niners might struggle against the Lions rushing game b/c the Niners are only 14th in yards per carry allowed. Against the pass, though the Niner defense is much better than expected--5th in yards per passing attempt allowed--and with Ambry Thomas so badly beaten against the packers we could see them just throw to whomever he is covering, whether covered or not. So, we should expect a lot of Lions running offense, and a Thomas-focused passing game.

Will Purdy rebound in this one after a rough outing against the Packers? Will the Niners be able to establish the ground game? The big question for the Niners is at WR--will Deebo be healthy enough to play? So far, the answer is 50/50. Considering the Lions' weakness against the pass and the Niners' weapons, we should be able to move the ball even without Deebo, so let's hope Shanny has a backup nonDeebo gameplan just in case. Honestly, our TEs and RBs should be able to exploit the Lions LBs and Ss in coverage and BA has an advantage over even their best CB.

The weather forecast for this game is overcast with no rain in sight. Vegas has the Niners as 6.5-7pt favorites at home. Honestly, I think most of the country is rooting for the Lions in this one b/c of their decades of futility and the feel-good year they're having. Hell, my wife went to high school with Lions HC Dan Campbell! I know who she wants to win...

Well, what do we think? Will this game be any different than the last 2 NFCCG trips?

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Alert for new takes from Niner fans on the NFCCG game:
@Jikkle
@Stlducks
@Yosemite Sam
@calsnowskier
@MHSL82
@msgkings322
@Jordan23
@deep9er
@Pattersonca65
@Sandisfan
@DurbanPoison2121

 

[msgkings322]

Alert for new takes from Niner fans on the NFCCG game:
@Jikkle
@Stlducks
@Yosemite Sam
@calsnowskier
@MHSL82
@msgkings322
@Jordan23
@deep9er
@Pattersonca65
@Sandisfan
@DurbanPoison2121

The line hasn't moved much, I think from 6.5 to 7. Deebo must be good to go

 

[Stlducks]

I have to admit, I'm less confident now than I was before the Packers game. I've been a big Purdy supporter all year but he looked off last game and the defense was terrible against the run and QB pressures.

Some key things need to improve and we win easy.
1. Purdy being accurate like he was all year.
2. The defense avoiding penalties to hurt us (Thomas)
3. The defense doing better against the run
4. Defense getting to Goff
5. Shanahan not having a stinker with decisions.

If we avoid making mistakes in those areas like against the Packers, we will win by 10+ imo. If we look like we did last week, Lions will win. They will take advantage where the Packers couldn't on our mistakes.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

I have to admit, I'm less confident now than I was before the Packers game. I've been a big Purdy supporter all year but he looked off last game and the defense was terrible against the run and QB pressures.

Some key things need to improve and we win easy.
1. Purdy being accurate like he was all year.
2. The defense avoiding penalties to hurt us (Thomas)
3. The defense doing better against the run
4. Defense getting to Goff
5. Shanahan not having a stinker with decisions.

If we avoid making mistakes in those areas like against the Packers, we will win by 10+ imo. If we look like we did last week, Lions will win. They will take advantage where the Packers couldn't on our mistakes.

Good post.

1. I think the weather was in Purdy's head. I think he'll be fine in this one. Still, it is a mild worry that he was just "ok" against Washington late in the year before getting sat against the LAR.
2. I'd expect Thomas to be on a short leash or else to have safety help a lot of the time.
3. This is the biggest worry I've got for this game. The Lions can run the ball and the niners are middle of the pack in stopping the run. This could be a big problem. I'm half expecting 5 man fronts and frequent run blitzes.
4. The book on Goff says he'll crumble if he is pressured. He's not very mobile either. Getting to Goff will be an issue from the outside, which is where the strength of the Detroit Oline is. Their OTs are very good. Bosa, Young, etc. have been MIA for a few weeks now. We need sacks badly.
5. It seems like his game plan is either right on the money or way the hell off. He was way off against GB--I kept asking "why the hell are we passing so much?". Yet, Shanny was dialed in against Dallas, Philly, Pitt, Jacksonville, etc.

 

[Stlducks]

Good post.

1. I think the weather was in Purdy's head. I think he'll be fine in this one. Still, it is a mild worry that he was just "ok" against Washington late in the year before getting sat against the LAR.
2. I'd expect Thomas to be on a short leash or else to have safety help a lot of the time.
3. This is the biggest worry I've got for this game. The Lions can run the ball and the niners are middle of the pack in stopping the run. This could be a big problem. I'm half expecting 5 man fronts and frequent run blitzes.
4. The book on Goff says he'll crumble if he is pressured. He's not very mobile either. Getting to Goff will be an issue from the outside, which is where the strength of the Detroit Oline is. Their OTs are very good. Bosa, Young, etc. have been MIA for a few weeks now. We need sacks badly.
5. It seems like his game plan is either right on the money or way the hell off. He was way off against GB--I kept asking "why the hell are we passing so much?". Yet, Shanny was dialed in against Dallas, Philly, Pitt, Jacksonville, etc.

With the game plan, I don't know if Deebo going down caused a huge disruption to the plan or what. My other thought was GB know us so well, Kyle was trying to throw them off.

Throwing that many times in those conditions made no sense. And then whatever he did before half was obviously terrible.

We need good Kyle to show up and not the one that overthinks everything.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

With the game plan, I don't know if Deebo going down caused a huge disruption to the plan or what. My other thought was GB know us so well, Kyle was trying to throw them off.

Throwing that many times in those conditions made no sense. And then whatever he did before half was obviously terrible.

We need good Kyle to show up and not the one that overthinks everything.

The defensive gameplan worries me more than the offensive one! How will Wilks slow down the explosive Lions offense? We might see Ward travel to cover St.Brown on most downs. We might play the deep shell coverage for the early part of the game to keep everything in front of us, but If I were Detroit, I might actually go 3 and 4 WR most downs just to force 3rd and 4th DBs into the field. Make guys like Oliver, Thomas, and Luter cover someone.

If the Niner front can't get any pass pressure, we're gonna be in trouble. It'll be a shootout. Time for Bosa, Young, and Gregory to show up!

 

[redskinsfan1963]

i,m pulling for detroit,but it,s unlikely they win.

 

[Stlducks]

The defensive gameplan worries me more than the offensive one! How will Wilks slow down the explosive Lions offense? We might see Ward travel to cover St.Brown on most downs. We might play the deep shell coverage for the early part of the game to keep everything in front of us, but If I were Detroit, I might actually go 3 and 4 WR most downs just to force 3rd and 4th DBs into the field. Make guys like Oliver, Thomas, and Luter cover someone.

If the Niner front can't get any pass pressure, we're gonna be in trouble. It'll be a shootout. Time for Bosa, Young, and Gregory to show up!

I guess I just have more confidence in Fred and Dre to get the guys up for it. The defense improved as the game went on against GB. The offense just can't put us in a hole early.

 

[Stlducks]

i,m pulling for detroit,but it,s unlikely they win.

Not unlikely at all. I say Niners are 60% favorites but it's 1 v 3. Not a big gap at all between us.

 

[redskinsfan1963]

Not unlikely at all. I say Niners are 60% favorites but it's 1 v 3. Not a big gap at all between us.

i don,t see san fran losing nfccg this year.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

What I like about the 9ers in this game:
1) Sounds like Deebo is close to being a "go"... if he practices today or Friday, he should play
2) While the 9ers didn't get sacks against Love, they did get pressures and his mobility in the pocket saved a lot of plays... Goff is not as mobile, and that D-Line should be hungry... another game with Armstead shaking off the rust should be helpful
3) A dry ball (fingers crossed)

What I have concerns with:
1) Detroit has a ton of talent and could run the bejeezus out of the ball if they get a solid lead in the game... Gibbs is the x-factor to me. He absolutely has the ability to turn a 5yd gain into a 50yd TD
2) Shanahan... for the most part love that he's the coach. But man, he makes strange choices sometimes. Still wondering why he didn't make adjustments during the last game.
3) Ambry Thomas. I went back and watch Kyle Posey's analysis of the game, and he pointed out that on the 41yd PI, the safety on his side of the field (Logan Ryan) totally hung him out to dry and gave up inside leverage. Still didn't like his body control, and KP pointed out several other plays where Ambry just blew it. Suffice it to say - I fully expect they go after him in a major way. I expect a ton of passes outside the hash on whatever side Ambry is playing. Maybe they move him to slot and get Lenoir back on the outside??

If the 9ers play like they have much of the year, they should win this. If they come out flat like they did against GB, it could get ugly.

 

[Old Lion]

Good post.

1. I think the weather was in Purdy's head. I think he'll be fine in this one. Still, it is a mild worry that he was just "ok" against Washington late in the year before getting sat against the LAR.
2. I'd expect Thomas to be on a short leash or else to have safety help a lot of the time.
3. This is the biggest worry I've got for this game. The Lions can run the ball and the niners are middle of the pack in stopping the run. This could be a big problem. I'm half expecting 5 man fronts and frequent run blitzes.
4. The book on Goff says he'll crumble if he is pressured. He's not very mobile either. Getting to Goff will be an issue from the outside, which is where the strength of the Detroit Oline is. Their OTs are very good. Bosa, Young, etc. have been MIA for a few weeks now. We need sacks badly.
5. It seems like his game plan is either right on the money or way the hell off. He was way off against GB--I kept asking "why the hell are we passing so much?". Yet, Shanny was dialed in against Dallas, Philly, Pitt, Jacksonville, etc.

Believe it or not good weather is better for us than you. Lions have a fair weather offense and is really bad in rain and wind. Thankfully we did not play you last week. No rain in sight but wind might kick up. Hopefully Mother Nature behaves herself.

Deebo is key for your offense. Lions have good safeties and lots of them. Need Deebo to keep them out of the box or McCaffrey will get slowed down. On offense you need to get pressure quickly and without leaving much field uncovered. Lions offense make teams defend every blade of grass on the field.

Should be a good game. I thought we were the 2 most complete teams in the NFC. Philly def was bound to collapse at some point and Dallas was about the same as Detroit.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

 

[redskinsfan1963]

espn was saying samuel is,nt taking part in today,s niners practice.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

espn was saying samuel is,nt taking part in today,s niners practice.

He wasn't likely to practice this week in the first place. No matter how good he felt. Shanny has still said it's 50/50 for him to play on Sunday night. I sure as hell hope he plays.

 

[redskinsfan1963]

He wasn't likely to practice this week in the first place. No matter how good he felt. Shanny has still said it's 50/50 for him to play on Sunday night. I sure as hell hope he plays.

be a huge loss if he does,nt.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

be a huge loss if he does,nt.

No Doubt. Shanny is reported as saying that the team is encouraged by the early signs of how Deebo has responded to rest/treatment. So far. We'll see...

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

No Doubt. Shanny is reported as saying that the team is encouraged by the early signs of how Deebo has responded to rest/treatment. So far. We'll see...

Maiocco is reporting that Shanahan said he expects Deebo to be a limited participant in practice today

Edit: national guys are reporting the same as well now

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Sam LaPorta returns to limited practice Thursday

Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (knee) returned to practice Thursday, getting in limited work.

www.nbcsports.com