49ers have 17.3% chance of winning the SB

[Jikkle]

What works in our favor is we have the two things you really want in the playoffs and that's great defensive play and a running game which is probably why the odds the way they are.

As far as Green Bay goes if we do play them it will come down to how much pressure we can put on Rodgers. Even the best QBs struggle in the face of a consistent pass rush and that's typically how you beat QBs like that. If he has time than we'll lose plain and simple.

 

[deep9er]

What works in our favor is we have the two things you really want in the playoffs and that's great defensive play and a running game which is probably why the odds the way they are.

As far as Green Bay goes if we do play them it will come down to how much pressure we can put on Rodgers. Even the best QBs struggle in the face of a consistent pass rush and that's typically how you beat QBs like that. If he has time than we'll lose plain and simple.

don't think we'll meet GB for SB dibs but IF it bounces our way, good match up to compare offense vs defense?

a few weeks ago had a LITTLE discussion (forgot who?) about having a better defense vs better offense? not for all season but specifically getting to the SB. while i agree the trend has moved off of "defense gets your there and the QB wins it", how far has it trended?

don't feel it trended so much that we can win a SB with more offense, less defense? still in the camp that says more defense, less offense.

 

[Jikkle]

don't think we'll meet GB for SB dibs but IF it bounces our way, good match up to compare offense vs defense?

a few weeks ago had a LITTLE discussion (forgot who?) about having a better defense vs better offense? not for all season but specifically getting to the SB. while i agree the trend has moved off of "defense gets your there and the QB wins it", how far has it trended?

don't feel it trended so much that we can win a SB with more offense, less defense? still in the camp that says more defense, less offense.

It's not that far fetched if we get a first round bye which means all we would have to do is win one game and Green Bay would have to win theirs which is likely.

Everyone debates what I believe you need but ultimately you at least need a good QB and a great pass rush. That's pretty much the formula used by the Giants and Steelers and considering the Patriots despite their vaunted offense hasn't won a playoff game since they beat the Chargers to get to their last Super Bowl.

So in other words you need both a quality offense and a quality defense specifically in the pass rush to have the best chance to win it all. Their are rare exceptions to that but with the league the way it is now you need the pass rush to slow and disrupt the opposing offense and you need a decent QB that can protect the ball, move the chains effectively, keep the offense on the field as long as possible, and more important put some points on the board because even when a great defense meets a great offense the offense will still be able to put some points on the board.

 

[deep9er]

It's not that far fetched if we get a first round bye which means all we would have to do is win one game and Green Bay would have to win theirs which is likely.

Everyone debates what I believe you need but ultimately you at least need a good QB and a great pass rush. That's pretty much the formula used by the Giants and Steelers and considering the Patriots despite their vaunted offense hasn't won a playoff game since they beat the Chargers to get to their last Super Bowl.

So in other words you need both a quality offense and a quality defense specifically in the pass rush to have the best chance to win it all. Their are rare exceptions to that but with the league the way it is now you need the pass rush to slow and disrupt the opposing offense and you need a decent QB that can protect the ball, move the chains effectively, keep the offense on the field as long as possible, and more important put some points on the board because even when a great defense meets a great offense the offense will still be able to put some points on the board.

yeah i guess so? because of our Division foes we have a decent chance at a bye? (ON PAPER)

every team wants to be good in ALL areas, but because of the cap rules, its next to impossible? so one side gets better over the other.

 

[Flyingiguana]

how funny would it be for smth to win mvp. harbaugh would be cemented as the qb guru of the nfl.

 

[deep9er]

how funny would it be for smth to win mvp. harbaugh would be cemented as the qb guru of the nfl.

Alex Smith is playing ok but not near MVP level?

anyways, if he can play no worse than he is now, i'd still consider Harbaugh a "QB guru". cause i didn't think he could improve Alex this fast?

 

[Arete Tzu]

how funny would it be for smth to win mvp. harbaugh would be cemented as the qb guru of the nfl.

I don't see that as likely, but it would be hilarious if Smith and the 49ers actually beat Rodgers on the way to the superbowl. It would by no means make Smith as good as Rogders, but I'd have to make a trip to back ESPN to fuck with some people.

 

[mem49er]

a few weeks ago had a LITTLE discussion (forgot who?) about having a better defense vs better offense?

That was with me, Deep. Can't find the thread; it was good discussion, though. I'm too lazy to pull the stats again.

 

[deep9er]

That was with me, Deep. Can't find the thread; it was good discussion, though. I'm too lazy to pull the stats again.

oh ok.

yeah, thats just another one of those no right or wrong discussions.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Alex Smith is playing ok but not near MVP level?

anyways, if he can play no worse than he is now, i'd still consider Harbaugh a "QB guru". cause i didn't think he could improve Alex this fast?

well smith started improving last year, which is something most people seemed to have missed.

 

[Flyingiguana]

I don't see that as likely, but it would be hilarious if Smith and the 49ers actually beat Rodgers on the way to the superbowl. It would by no means make Smith as good as Rogders, but I'd have to make a trip to back ESPN to fuck with some people.

there would be nobody to mess with. everyone would be a smith fan and saying 'told you keeping smith was the right idea'

 

[mem49er]

On the topic of the thread, though. I'm very much still in the wait and see stage but I couldn't help but think that with even fair QB play 13-3 is very feasible the way our D and run game have been going. That would typically be good enough for a 1st round bye but this number is still a little surprising. Go NINERS!

 

[deep9er]

On the topic of the thread, though. I'm very much still in the wait and see stage but I couldn't help but think that with even fair QB play 13-3 is very feasible the way our D and run game have been going. That would typically be good enough for a 1st round bye but this number is still a little surprising. Go NINERS!

yep, a good defense and now the run game is going well. couple that with our weak West bretheren and a good record is possible?

we'll just need to bounce back strong when we lose, not start a losing streak.

 

[ChrisPozz]

Chris, is this correct, 22nd against RB's thus far in 2011? That seems to contradict our overall rank for rushing defense. How or what is being measured here?

That stat has nothing to do with rush yards. It's yards against via the pass.

 

[MW49ers5]

That stat has nothing to do with rush yards. It's yards against via the pass.

Thanks, Chris

 

[MHSL82]

Alex Smith is playing ok but not near MVP level?

anyways, if he can play no worse than he is now, i'd still consider Harbaugh a "QB guru". cause i didn't think he could improve Alex this fast?

I think he is talking about Superbowl MVP, not regular season MVP. Still unlikely, but more likely than the latter. He could have the win despite him in the NFC championship game and then a bounce back 290 yard, 3 TD, MVP win. One can wish.