49ers have 17.3% chance of winning the SB

[clyde_carbon]

according to Football Outsiders. Second best in the league, behind only GB at 17.5%. 1.4% chance of going 15-1.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

 

[Ray_Dogg]

Jeeeeez.

 

[threelittleturds]

That is surprising, I would have figured the prospect of having to go through Green Bay would diminish the 49ers chances. I find it interesting that they give the 49ers a 31.7% chance of winning the Conference, while giving the Packers a 31.6% chance of winning the conference. I guess their Super Bowl odds don't include winning the conference?


Oooo, a 7.0% chance for a Harbaugh Bowl in the Super Bowl, topped only by a possible GB VS NE game at 7.5%. 2.7% chance for the Bay Area Bowl.

 

[LeaderOCola]

I'm a huge FO nerd, but I wouldn't buy into that this early.

I WOULD* buy into the playoff appearances about now.

 

[LeaderOCola]

That is surprising, I would have figured the prospect of having to go through Green Bay would diminish the 49ers chances. I find it interesting that they give the 49ers a 31.7% chance of winning the Conference, while giving the Packers a 31.6% chance of winning the conference. I guess their Super Bowl odds don't include winning the conference?

yes, it does

 

[clyde_carbon]

Percentages are probably skewed because of our division, though. According to FO we have a 99% chance to win our division, best in the league. Only team that's even close to that are the Packers, at just over 97%.

 

[imac_21]

That is surprising, I would have figured the prospect of having to go through Green Bay would diminish the 49ers chances. I find it interesting that they give the 49ers a 31.7% chance of winning the Conference, while giving the Packers a 31.6% chance of winning the conference. I guess their Super Bowl odds don't include winning the conference?


Oooo, a 7.0% chance for a Harbaugh Bowl in the Super Bowl, topped only by a possible GB VS NE game at 7.5%. 2.7% chance for the Bay Area Bowl.

I would imagine that our SB odds are helped because they have us as the ever-so-slight favourite to win the conference. Obviously based on the remaining schedule as ours gets significantly easier as we come out of the bye with only 3 games against potential playoff teams I believe (Pitt, Baltimore and NYG). They do, however, seem to like GB's chances of winning in SF in the NFC Championship better than our chances of winning that game.

I know that after Sunday's games the Niners were first in FO's DVOA stat, but we're overtaken by Baltimore following the Monday Night game, so according to FO's numbers we are one of the top teams in the league (#2 technically speaking).

 

[ChrisPozz]

As far as Football Outsiders goes, here is a quick rundown of some stats that were popular on the ESPN boards last year. These are ones that got alot of talk on the ESPN board. Of course we're not even halfway through the year already and obviously the players they have faced have not and won't be the same as last year which obviously needs to be taken into account, but anyways:


2011 SF D vs. #1 WRs - 21st
2010 SF D (end of year rank) vs. #1 WRs - 30th

2011 SF D vs. #2 WRs - 3rd
2010 SF D vs. #2 WRs - 31st

2011 SF D vs. other WRs - 8th
2010 SF D vs. other WRs - 22nd

2011 SF D vs. TEs - 7th
2010 SF D vs. TEs - 1st

2011 SF D vs. RBs - 22nd
2010 SF D vs. RBs - 10th

 

[RobertPhD01]

Green Bay has had our numbers for about 20 years! It will be interesting in about 3 months. Go 49ers!!

 

[numone9er]

Green Bay has had our numbers for about 20 years! It will be interesting in about 3 months. Go 49ers!!

Green Bay is the team that scares me the most. I have confidence we can beat the Saints, but i would favor them slightly. However, i have much more confidence in our coaches game plans than i have been in over a decade.

 

[CalamityX11]

Hopefully we meet GB in SF in the playoffs.

 

[MW49ers5]

As far as Football Outsiders goes, here is a quick rundown of some stats that were popular on the ESPN boards last year. These are ones that got alot of talk on the ESPN board. Of course we're not even halfway through the year already and obviously the players they have faced have not and won't be the same as last year which obviously needs to be taken into account, but anyways:


2011 SF D vs. #1 WRs - 21st
2010 SF D (end of year rank) vs. #1 WRs - 30th

2011 SF D vs. #2 WRs - 3rd
2010 SF D vs. #2 WRs - 31st

2011 SF D vs. other WRs - 8th
2010 SF D vs. other WRs - 22nd

2011 SF D vs. TEs - 7th
2010 SF D vs. TEs - 1st

2011 SF D vs. RBs - 22nd
2010 SF D vs. RBs - 10th

Chris, is this correct, 22nd against RB's thus far in 2011? That seems to contradict our overall rank for rushing defense. How or what is being measured here?

 

[EaseUrStorm]

The RB stat would definitely factor in receiving yards.

 

[jordan20_3]

Last week we were to early to talk expectation? Whats this??

according to Football Outsiders. Second best in the league, behind only GB at 17.5%. 1.4% chance of going 15-1.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/san-francisco-49ers/48610-what-your-playoff-expectations.html

 

[MW49ers5]

The RB stat would definitely factor in receiving yards.

Ooooh, got it - Thanks, Storm.

 

[CalamityX11]

Ooooh, got it - Thanks, Storm.

DUh! i mean it was like obvious n junk..... yo!

 

[MW49ers5]

DUh! i mean it was like obvious n junk..... yo!

I must have got my signals crossed

 

[h0ckeysk83r]

GB is def the team that scares me the most as well. But the way our defense has been playing it would make it a good game. Might be hard for our offense to keep up with them if indeed it was a shootout. But you never know. Let just make sure we make the playoffs first.

 

[MW49ers5]

GB is def the team that scares me the most as well. But the way our defense has been playing it would make it a good game. Might be hard for our offense to keep up with them if indeed it was a shootout. But you never know. Let just make sure we make the playoffs first.[/QUOTE]

Agreed!

 

[Ray_Dogg]

Edwards needs to become great for us with Alex staying mild in the TOs department. If Aldon and Cully keep it up we have a shot to be a force.