Game Thread: 4.16 A Ray of sunshine in Philthland 3:45pm

[tzill]

Phil’s are just gross right now.

8 losses and 4 of them are Nola starts. He’s in year 2 of a 7 year deal. His velocity is down like 1.5-2 MPH. I hope he goes to the DL because they reveal he’s been pitching hurt cause if not…I have Jake Arrieta again.

These deals almost NEVER work out.

(unless you're Barry Zito)

 

[LHG]

The Giants have scored 100 runs and allowed 64. That’s good for a Pythagorean record of 13-5, which just happens to be their actual record. You might think that a team’s Pythagorean record is something that only nerds care about. Well, allow me to disabuse you of that notion and … wait, no, that’s entirely correct. It’s definitely just for nerds.

 

[tzill]

Anyway, if you’re looking for a way to be even more impressed with this year’s team, note that the Giants have had the toughest schedule in baseball so far, at least according to Baseball-Reference’s SOS (strength of schedule) metric, which is based on how many runs their opponents score. Except the Giants have been one of the best teams in baseball when it comes to runs allowed, which suggests that their opponents are scoring most of those runs against other teams. That’s a tricky combination to pull off.

 

[LHG]

Anyway, if you’re looking for a way to be even more impressed with this year’s team, note that the Giants have had the toughest schedule in baseball so far, at least according to Baseball-Reference’s SOS (strength of schedule) metric, which is based on how many runs their opponents score. Except the Giants have been one of the best teams in baseball when it comes to runs allowed, which suggests that their opponents are scoring most of those runs against other teams. That’s a tricky combination to pull off.

It is a beautiful start to the 2025 season.

 

[calsnowskier]

Who is Snuffleufagus?

We all are, seeing as we are just your alts…

 

[LHG]

Anyway, if you’re looking for a way to be even more impressed with this year’s team, note that the Giants have had the toughest schedule in baseball so far, at least according to Baseball-Reference’s SOS (strength of schedule) metric, which is based on how many runs their opponents score. Except the Giants have been one of the best teams in baseball when it comes to runs allowed, which suggests that their opponents are scoring most of those runs against other teams. That’s a tricky combination to pull off.

You've probably already seen this, but someone did a Q&A with MLBTR's subscription only section and here is their answer on the Giants' start:

John asks:


How sustainable is the Giants start in your opinion? Does it establish them as a legit contender?


The Giants have been the second-best team in baseball at 12-5. Those extra wins are banked, and they’ve gone from a team with an 81-win preseason projection to one with a 86-win projection today. As such, they’re a coin flip to make the playoffs, up from 29%.


The Giants have had one of the game’s best offenses despite Willy Adames and LaMonte Wade Jr. doing nothing. Instead, they’ve been carried by Jung Hoo Lee, Mike Yastrzemski, Tyler Fitzgerald, and Wilmer Flores. I don’t think Lee or Yaz can sustain this, but that may be balanced by getting more from Adames, Wade, and possibly Heliot Ramos. If Bryce Eldridge hits decently after he comes off the minor league IL from his wrist injury, the temptation to install him at first base will be strong.


In terms of starting pitching, the Giants are 22nd in the game with a 4.48 ERA. Justin Verlander, Jordan Hicks, and Landen Roupp have struggled, though Roupp has missed bats and better times may be ahead. On the flip side, Robbie Ray’s ERA is headed upward if something doesn’t change.


The Giants’ run prevention has been propped up by a 1.93 bullpen ERA. The group’s skills at least support a top-ten bullpen, if not one of the game’s best. Bob Melvin has been leaning on Erik Miller, Randy Rodriguez, Ryan Walker, and Tyler Rogers in the highest-leverage situations, and he’s also enjoyed excellence from Hayden Birdsong. Obviously this group won’t finish with a sub-2.00 ERA, but Walker and Rodriguez are legitimately good.


It’d be fun to see this team in the playoffs, but they’ll need a starting pitcher to emerge or round into form behind Logan Webb. Like most contenders, they figure to have their eye on Sandy Alcantara all summer.

 

[tzill]

Robbie Ray yesterday:

• 4 IP
•4 ER
• 6 H
• 5 BB
• 8 K

Ray has walked 14 batters in his last 14 innings pitched.

Not good.

 

[LHG]

Robbie Ray yesterday:

• 4 IP
•4 ER
• 6 H
• 5 BB
• 8 K

Ray has walked 14 batters in his last 14 innings pitched.

Not good.

Could still be rusty from the long layoff. Didn't get that much time last year to pitch. Hopefully, he works it out.

 

[calsnowskier]

I said at the start of the roadie that I was OK with 4-6. We are currently 4-2.

House money, baby!!

 

[tzill]

I said at the start of the roadie that I was OK with 4-6. We are currently 4-2.

House money, baby!!

If they lose today and get swept in Anaheim, I suspect you wouldn't be "OK."

 

[calsnowskier]

I said at the start of the roadie that I was OK with 4-6. We are currently 4-2.

House money, baby!!

I think we need roadtrip expectation/discussion threads moving forward. I will create on for the coming home stand…

 

[calsnowskier]

If they lose today and get swept in Anaheim, I suspect you wouldn't be "OK."

Recency bias.