(3) Phoenix Coyotes vs (8) L.A. Kings Western Conf. Finals series thread

[smackdown380]

Favorite thing Sutter said tonight when asked about he trusting King on the ice late in the game. "I trust putting anybody out there late in the game"

Nice to be able to toll 4 lines this late in the season

Couldn't agree more....I love having that luxury. It gives a chance for our top guys to rest and it also prevents injury if the opposition decides to goon it up. This series didn't take long to get chippy given these two are division rivals and know each other well.

 

[Ho_Brah]

for you advanced stats people, this is one of the most thorough ass kickings you will ever see
http://timeonice.com/shots1112.php?gamenumber=30321

Kopitar with a +27 Corsi in a single game.
how Jeff Carter had a -2 is a puzzler, too.

ZA Corsi %
Kings Centers

Kopitar 80%
Richards 50%
Stoll 73%
Fraser 36%

Coyotes C

Hanzal 29%
Vermette 38%
Gordon 28%
Langkow 49%

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

Sutter has the Kings playing their best at the right time. I really like how they crash the net. Penner is actually playing well. It's amazing. The only reason this game was close is because Smith stood on his head.

 

[Ties5o11]

Ugh whats Corsi and Fenwick?

 

[Ho_Brah]

Ugh whats Corsi and Fenwick?

Corsi: the most popular advanced stat in the hockey blogosphere, Corsi is a possession metric developed by former Buffalo Sabres goaltending coach Jim Corsi. At its most basic level, Corsi is the plus/minus amount of shots directed at a net while at even strength-blocked shots, shots high and wide, shots that hit, shots that get tipped, etc. A player who has a positive Corsi has more shots directed towards the opponents net while he is on the ice at even strength then shots directed towards his own net under the same criteria. All 10 players on the ice are used when calculating this metric.

For example, if Mark Giordano is +7 in Corsi over the course of the game, that means he & Flames players he was on the ice with at even strength directed 7 more shots towards the opponents net then were directed by the opponents towards the Flames' net.

Most of the time we'll stop there, as any score effect bias generally evens out over the course of a season (unless a team really sucks or is really good, but there's that context thing). Basically, score effect means that a team will play differently depending on how far ahead/behind they are in a game-if a team is 3 goals up, they'll sit back and take more shots against then they would if they were 3 goals down.

So, to combat score effect, we can break down Corsi into 4 categories: Corsi Ahead (Corsi while the subject's team is leading the game), Corsi Even (Corsi while a game is tied), Corsi Close (Corsi while a game is within 1 goal either way relative to a subject) and Corsi Behind (Corsi while the subject's team is losing the game). With these tools, we can eliminate most scoring bias within the stat. All of the breakdowns have their purpose, but when trying to evaluate a player, the most important breakdown is Corsi Even-a team won't be taking risks and won't be sitting back when a game is tied, they'll be playing as "normal" as possible.

Fenwick: Named for Battle of Alberta writer Matt Fenwick, Fenwick is almost the exact same as Corsi, but it doesn't count blocked shots-the reason for this is that it is entirely possible that blocking shots is a skill, and not just a series of random events.

Why Only Even Strength?

First, because about 75% of the shots taken over the course of an NHL season are at even strength. Second, the amount of PP and PK shots directed towards the net generally cancel each other out over the course of a season, rendering them unnecessary for calculations. Besides, a team is expected to bleed shots when down a man and vice versa. (Edit: It's more individual then anything. Someone who is a PK specialist but never features on the PP would be unduly penalized by the stat. Thanks for bringing that up, Mike.)

What do these stats tell us?

These stats are reliable metrics for possession-logically, the more shots a team is able to direct towards the net, the longer they have the puck. The term "direct" is important here, since a team could be +30 in Corsi collectively, but because of bad luck, be behind in the shot count. Plus, there's the ever present scorer bias in NHL arenas-home teams generally get more shots recorded.

 

[dash]

Sutter has the Kings playing their best at the right time. I really like how they crash the net. Penner is actually playing well. It's amazing. The only reason this game was close is because Smith stood on his head.

Smith played well, but I also felt the Kings missed a ton of Grade 'A' scoring chances. In reality, I don't think the final score was indicative of how much the Kings dominated game one.

 

[Ho_Brah]

The Kings too had their fair share of blown chances..either way Quick didn't have his best game and the Kings won one for him. Game 2 will be interesting, Phoenix is coached well and Tippet is gonna have his group ready.

I don't know what more Tippet can do at this point. It was obvious that the Coyotes top line had a very hard time matching up to the Kings top line in the first period, thus the match up change in the 2nd etc. Once he started to do that, it was like he was chasing them the rest of the game.

 

[Winged_Wheel88]

It's tougher for me this time with an uncle in Arizona, but I'm still rooting for the Kings.

 

[dash]

Okay, now it all makes sense...

 

[BOSSMANPC]

Well we know he's not gay. Going for the corners then the five hole now the old distracted by the cleavage shot.

 

[dash]

Doesn't sound like he's that close to playing, but still a positive step forward for Simon Gagne of the Kings.

Kings F Gagne cleared for contact but not close to returning

 

[Eddie_Shack]

Doesn't sound like he's that close to playing, but still a positive step forward for Simon Gagne of the Kings.

Kings F Gagne cleared for contact but not close to returning

Wasn't he a forty goal guy at one point? Talk about a player with talent who just can't get a break on the injury front.

 

[dash]

Wasn't he a forty goal guy at one point? Talk about a player with talent who just can't get a break on the injury front.

Yeah, he has a sweet pair of mitts, if he could just stay healthy...

 

[BlueandWhiteForever]

I don't know what more Tippet can do at this point. It was obvious that the Coyotes top line had a very hard time matching up to the Kings top line in the first period, thus the match up change in the 2nd etc. Once he started to do that, it was like he was chasing them the rest of the game.

Average team with an all world goaltender. A lot of people are trying to give the Coyotes props for making it this far because they are a great team, but the truth is Smith makes them look a lot better than they actually are.

 

[puckhead]

 

[davnlaguna]

Ah the love and respect the LA Kings get from the local media.
The same channel did the same thing last year as well

 

[Winged_Wheel88]

LOL!

 

[esls79]

Well, in about 15 months the Sacramento Kings will be a local team, so they are just foreshadowing.

 

[Slimpikins]

That's the closest the Sacramento Kings are going to get to the playoffs for a looooooonnnnggg time.

 

[Ho_Brah]

Huge game tonight.. duhhhh.

from Lakingsinsder.com :

SUTTER: “We had a lot of opportunities in the first period last night. I know that Dave and his staff are saying that they didn’t, probably didn’t play very well. We sure as hell better be ready again for that [improved play] tomorrow. It’s not about anything last night. Just knowing full well what they’re — I know the leadership group, I know what they’re expecting out of themselves for tomorrow.’’

"Teams that chase matchups, end up chasing the puck".

last sentence Sutter has this evilish grin while saying it. Seems he's welcoming whatever the Yotes bring tonight.

GO KINGS GO!