2024 Free agency and draft thread

[shopson67]

What?!?!

This is one of the most talented WR classes to ever hit the market (if they indeed do). And one of the most talented positional group to ever hit the FA market.

Of course it might and likely will change but.....

Mike Evans
Tee Higgins
Marquise Brown
Mike Pittman

You dont get FA WR's like that on the open market usually. Of course they might not get there. But that is the most talented list I c

Go look at FA tracker and go from year to year to see what a normal FA WR class looks like:

2020 NFL Free Agents Tracker

Tracking the status and signings of all 2020 NFL free agents.

www.spotrac.com

Other than Pittman, the others have real issues. Evans is 30 and will be very expensive, a tough tightrope to walk. Higgins just can't stay healthy. Brown is talented, but could be on his third team already and hasn't proven to be that guy.

Ultimately, I expect Evans and Pittman to stay put.

 

[Clayton]

Other than Pittman, the others have real issues. Evans is 30 and will be very expensive, a tough tightrope to walk. Higgins just can't stay healthy. Brown is talented, but could be on his third team already and hasn't proven to be that guy.

Ultimately, I expect Evans and Pittman to stay put.

I will say its a better than normal FA WR class but with last year's draft being limited at outside WR position and the past few WR FA classes being weak overall I think many teams will pay and/or overpay these guys.

Nowhere even close to where RB has been going for decades. Although in theory that might rebound a little bit because the draft has nothing

The bigger issue with WR is that they've become so valuable that you can't really pay more than one unless you have a rookie QB contract

 

[shopson67]

Yeah WR's are going to drop in draft by quite a bit in general. At least for the so called 1st round guys.

WR is a position that is in dangerous oversupply area. That is a position in a couple of years might start to get devalued like RB. There just is such a crazy amount of talent at the position entering the league every year now as of late.

I don't see WR as heavy in the first overall, but the top 3 could/should be in the top 10. You might get 3 more in the rest of the first (similar to QB really). Edge/DE and CB should have a pretty solid run after the top 10. LB/DT/S/TE are likely thinly represented in the 1st, maybe a DT or 2 and a safety (and the one obvious TE). RB will be 2nd round at best.

I don't think we're there yet with oversupply of WRs. A good portion of that perceived surplus coming from the NCAA won't deliver on their promise (much like those spread offense QBs that set NCAA records but proved to be inadequate for the NFL).

 

[Clayton]

Imo, the glut of OL entering the NFL through the draft is the biggest deal at a macro level. 2022 and certainly 2023 the DL was better than the OL coming out at first glance.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

The bigger issue with WR is that they've become so valuable that you can't really pay more than one unless you have a rookie QB contract

I don't think we're there yet with oversupply of WRs. A good portion of that perceived surplus coming from the NCAA won't deliver on their promise (much like those spread offense QBs that set NCAA records but proved to be inadequate for the NFL).

Not yet, but we're getting close. I think it's a very sensible take to say it's all but impossible for a team these days to pay top dollar for two great WRs, at least paying both on free agent contracts. And with the influx of this 2024 WR class, it's only going to make it even harder for teams to double pay top wideouts. Sure, not all the WR picks this year will turn out to be studs, but it's fair to guess that a sizable percentage will.

 

[Clayton]

Not yet, but we're getting close. I think it's a very sensible take to say it's all but impossible for a team these days to pay top dollar for two great WRs, at least paying both on free agent contracts. And with the influx of this 2024 WR class, it's only going to make it even harder for teams to double pay top wideouts. Sure, not all the WR picks this year will turn out to be studs, but it's fair to guess that a sizable percentage will.

I think logically WR and CB should be about equal. I guess the question becomes: will CB rise up or WR value fall?

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

I think logically WR and CB should be about equal. I guess the question becomes: will CB rise up or WR value fall?

They might be parallel situations, altho at this point the market does seem to be more loaded with top tier WRs vs CBs.

 

[Shanemansj13]

What?!?!

This is one of the most talented WR classes to ever hit the market (if they indeed do). And one of the most talented positional group to ever hit the FA market.

Of course it might and likely will change but.....

Mike Evans
Tee Higgins
Marquise Brown
Mike Pittman

You dont get FA WR's like that on the open market usually. Of course they might not get there. But that is the most talented list I c

Go look at FA tracker and go from year to year to see what a normal FA WR class looks like:

2020 NFL Free Agents Tracker

Tracking the status and signings of all 2020 NFL free agents.

www.spotrac.com

Overrated class other than the 30 year old, high priced Evans

 

[ducky]

Overrated class other than the 30 year old, high priced Evans

Go back and look at the last 5 free agent WR classes and see if you still feel that way.

Obviously things can and likely will change with tags and contract agreements before the actual FA market opens, but this class might have more talent than the last 3 or 4 years combined.

People seem to forget how shitty free agency actually is. Not often a lot of talent actually hits the market. Between the WR class and the interior DL class, this could be one of the craziest FA classes in a long, long, long time.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Go back and look at the last 5 free agent WR classes and see if you still feel that way.

Obviously things can and likely will change with tags and contract agreements before the actual FA market opens, but this class might have more talent than the last 3 or 4 years combined.

People seem to forget how shitty free agency actually is. Not often a lot of talent actually hits the market. Between the WR class and the interior DL class, this could be one of the craziest FA classes in a long, long, long time.

Yeah I mean I guess it is just shitty every year but this year does seem "special". I expect the Bengals to franchise tag Higgins but overall strong compared to the past.

 

[Clayton]

Go back and look at the last 5 free agent WR classes and see if you still feel that way.

Obviously things can and likely will change with tags and contract agreements before the actual FA market opens, but this class might have more talent than the last 3 or 4 years combined.

People seem to forget how shitty free agency actually is. Not often a lot of talent actually hits the market. Between the WR class and the interior DL class, this could be one of the craziest FA classes in a long, long, long time.

A lot of times the classes will look decent before 'tags' but once the tags drop it looks significantly less interesting.

I think part of the issue is that my base expectation is that the Chiefs will tag Snead, release Chris Jones, cut MVS, and then sign either Drue Tranquil or Willie Gay Jr but not both. So by default the Chiefs are letting go of Jones and there isnt anything there that will meet that. So for me its 'on to the draft' but there will be a couple of big FA moves for sure. Vegas has the three teams with the best odds of landing Chris Jones as Houston, Chicago, and Detroit. If Houston or Chicago wants Chris Jones there is nothing the Chiefs will be able to do to match. They have rookie QB contracts and we have Patrick Mahomes. So yeah...we really should see some FA splashes. I'm guessing Chicago keeps Jaylon Johnson while Houston gets Chris Jones.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

A lot of times the classes will look decent before 'tags' but once the tags drop it looks significantly less interesting.

I think part of the issue is that my base expectation is that the Chiefs will tag Snead, release Chris Jones, cut MVS, and then sign either Drue Tranquil or Willie Gay Jr but not both. So by default the Chiefs are letting go of Jones and there isnt anything there that will meet that. So for me its 'on to the draft' but there will be a couple of big FA moves for sure. Vegas has the three teams with the best odds of landing Chris Jones as Houston, Chicago, and Detroit. If Houston or Chicago wants Chris Jones there is nothing the Chiefs will be able to do to match. They have rookie QB contracts and we have Patrick Mahomes. So yeah...we really should see some FA splashes. I'm guessing Chicago keeps Jaylon Johnson while Houston gets Chris Jones.

As a Bears fan, I can say unequivocally that who wouldn't want Chris Jones on our team's roster. The man is a difference maker to the nth degree. The problem is he's gonna cost an arm and a leg. Make that both arms, both legs, and most of the team's innards. Despite the crazy numbers being tossed around, the Bears realistic cap space for this year to sign free agents is around $30 mil, plus or minus. Jones AAV alone would eat up all that and then some. If the Chiefs don't re-sign him, then I only see some team that is close to being a SB contender and who can juggle the books enough to land him.

 

[DJ]

A lot of times the classes will look decent before 'tags' but once the tags drop it looks significantly less interesting.

I think part of the issue is that my base expectation is that the Chiefs will tag Snead, release Chris Jones, cut MVS, and then sign either Drue Tranquil or Willie Gay Jr but not both. So by default the Chiefs are letting go of Jones and there isnt anything there that will meet that. So for me its 'on to the draft' but there will be a couple of big FA moves for sure. Vegas has the three teams with the best odds of landing Chris Jones as Houston, Chicago, and Detroit. If Houston or Chicago wants Chris Jones there is nothing the Chiefs will be able to do to match. They have rookie QB contracts and we have Patrick Mahomes. So yeah...we really should see some FA splashes. I'm guessing Chicago keeps Jaylon Johnson while Houston gets Chris Jones.

Losing Jones is gonna hurt a lot if that happens. He means so much to that defense.

 

[DJ]

Evans is going to the highest bidder. Tampa has to pay Mayfield and they still have Godwin. They can add another WR in the draft.

 

[Clayton]

As a Bears fan, I can say unequivocally that who wouldn't want Chris Jones on our team's roster. The man is a difference maker to the nth degree. The problem is he's gonna cost an arm and a leg. Make that both arms, both legs, and most of the team's innards. Despite the crazy numbers being tossed around, the Bears realistic cap space for this year to sign free agents is around $30 mil, plus or minus. Jones AAV alone would eat up all that and then some. If the Chiefs don't re-sign him, then I only see some team that is close to being a SB contender and who can juggle the books enough to land him.

I suspect that if the Chiefs can keep Chris Jones at or lower than $28 mil a year then he'll stay in KC. The Chiefs can cut MVS and create some space. Its just that if a team bids him up then he is gone and Id imagine someone will try.

 

[shopson67]

I suspect that if the Chiefs can keep Chris Jones at or lower than $28 mil a year then he'll stay in KC. The Chiefs can cut MVS and create some space. Its just that if a team bids him up then he is gone and Id imagine someone will try.

He would be a huge get for the new staff in Washington. Seems destined to wear that Bears helmet too.

 

[fightinfunbags]

I suspect that if the Chiefs can keep Chris Jones at or lower than $28 mil a year then he'll stay in KC. The Chiefs can cut MVS and create some space. Its just that if a team bids him up then he is gone and Id imagine someone will try.

I would imagine that if the Chiefs can come to $25 million that he would turn down like 28-30 to stay in KC. The Chiefs just have to come close, within like 80-85% of the top offer and I think he resigns.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I would imagine that if the Chiefs can come to $25 million that he would turn down like 28-30 to stay in KC. The Chiefs just have to come close, within like 80-85% of the top offer and I think he resigns.

I suspect if that was true he would have already signed a LTD, and not held out a game. He’s out the door as far as I am concerned. Just means some money is being re-directed to Sneed, Tranquill, and younger players instead.

 

[Clayton]

I suspect if that was true he would have already signed a LTD, and not held out a game. He’s out the door as far as I am concerned. Just means some money is being re-directed to Sneed, Tranquill, and younger players instead.

Sneed in particular seems like the most important piece in Spags defense. The ability to put him 1 on 1 against a guy and forget about it allows Spags to get silly with blitzes and moving other players around. Bolton also seems weirdly important as Spags seems to move him into 4 different positions as a jack of all trades guy but Bolton isnt actually above average at any of those things besides run stuffing LB. So Im not sure if thats genius or madness with what Spags is doing. But Sneed is really good at one thing. Front load his contract and then when its done the Chiefs should be able to pay McDuffie in 2026.

I do think Chris Jones is a different situation than Honey Badger and Orlando Brown. When FA hit, replacing those guys was Veach's top priority so they were never really in consideration. I don't really think the Chiefs will approach FA thinking 'mid tier DT will totally replace Chris Jones so we wont even consider him coming back'. That said, I highly doubt Chris Jones' market is lukewarm.

 

[ducky]

They just came out with a cap number. Much higher than anticipated.

$255.4M.

Most had been thinking in the $240-245 range.

For anyone doing math this offseason just remember a $20M contract signed two years ago is 25% higher in todays dollars and would have been $25M this offseason.