2021 Denver Broncos Offseason Discusion

[fightinredantz]

Few things here...

1) I do think him being an above average QB is his ceiling. Maybe he makes it to where Derek Carr is right now but in this division even that is not good enough.

Throw in unfortunately in today's NFL teams are ok with sticking with above average QB's and when you have to pay them then you pay them like top QB's. Joe Flacco was an average QB and got paid top money. Right now Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy G, Jacoby Brissett are all making top-12 money in the NFL and I would only put maybe Cousins in that conversation. Do you really want to pay Lock if he turns out to be an average QB?

2) The reverse could happen when you talk about trading up and the guy not working out and Lock going elsewhere to become something. What happens if we pass on a guy this year in the hopes that Lock becomes something and that QB becomes something and the Broncos are still stuck looking for a QB? There is risk both ways in this conversation.

3) I do get the idea of trading back and trying to get some ammo for future years if a trade is possible. Part of me is thinking Watson won't be available to teams before the draft so having some extra 2022 draft capital could put the Broncos as the frontrunners to trade for him. I'm not a big fan of the 2022 QB class especially compared to the top-4 of this class. Their top guy right now would be 5th for me in this class if they were able to come out.

If you feel Lock can't make the top 10 list of QBs by the end of his rookie contract then cutting ties might be the best thing. Package him in a trade and move up for the guy think will be that guy for you. If you trade up for a QB this year then you can't hold the coaching staff to a playoff mandate with a stop gap QB and a rookie. Can you imagine what Bills fans would be saying if they gave up on Allen before 2021? At some point we have to hook our wagon to a guy and see how far he will take us. Mabye Lock is that guy and maybe he isn't. Last year was a tough year as he was learning a new offense and mostly rookie WRs to throw to. I don't have the time nor the knowledge to tell you if one of the WRs ran a route wrong, or if Lock made the wrong read. My guess is there is some blame on the Lock, and some blame on the young WRs. It would have been less noticeable if Sutton would have been there as a steadying force. Many people point to Herbert's success, but he had WRs that are vets and have learned tricks to help their QB. Herbert played very well and deserves credit, but he also had the benefit of veteran WRs to help him.

I agree with your second point to an extent, but if you never had the player on your team it is easier then if you traded them away. Do you hold the team accountable for passing on Tom Brady??? Russell Wilson??? Patrick Mahomes??? Dak Prescott??? The Broncos were not the only team that didn't project these players to be what they have turned into. If we trade Lock this year and he goes on to be a very good QB and we draft Fields and he is another in a long line of 1st round busts I think it looks worse. My opinion and we are all entitled to our own. I heard something that every 1st round QB since 2016 is no longer with the team that drafted them except Watson, and he wants out of Houston.

I agree we need better QB play and I hope Lock becomes that guy and we can stop searching. If not then I can be wrong (I am used to it) and we can continue our search.

 

[Draft Crazy]

One thing we know. If you want to be an NFL QB you need to mature quicker then your average 24 year old. If Lock truly has maturity issues and he probably does like most people his age he needs to learn quickly how to become a professional. You start learning that at a young age when you play the quarterback position your entire life. But as we all know it is a process.
Guys like Trevor Lawrence, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck quickly matured and it shows in their play and leadership.

 

[Mingo]

One thing we know. If you want to be an NFL QB you need to mature quicker then your average 24 year old. If Lock truly has maturity issues and he probably does like most people his age he needs to learn quickly how to become a professional. You start learning that at a young age when you play the quarterback position your entire life. But as we all know it is a process.
Guys like Trevor Lawrence, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck quickly matured and it shows in their play and leadership.

That's a heck of a promotion your giving Trevor Lawrence there to be mentioned in that sentence.

 

[cdumler7]

If you feel Lock can't make the top 10 list of QBs by the end of his rookie contract then cutting ties might be the best thing. Package him in a trade and move up for the guy think will be that guy for you. If you trade up for a QB this year then you can't hold the coaching staff to a playoff mandate with a stop gap QB and a rookie. Can you imagine what Bills fans would be saying if they gave up on Allen before 2021? At some point we have to hook our wagon to a guy and see how far he will take us. Mabye Lock is that guy and maybe he isn't. Last year was a tough year as he was learning a new offense and mostly rookie WRs to throw to. I don't have the time nor the knowledge to tell you if one of the WRs ran a route wrong, or if Lock made the wrong read. My guess is there is some blame on the Lock, and some blame on the young WRs. It would have been less noticeable if Sutton would have been there as a steadying force. Many people point to Herbert's success, but he had WRs that are vets and have learned tricks to help their QB. Herbert played very well and deserves credit, but he also had the benefit of veteran WRs to help him.

I agree with your second point to an extent, but if you never had the player on your team it is easier then if you traded them away. Do you hold the team accountable for passing on Tom Brady??? Russell Wilson??? Patrick Mahomes??? Dak Prescott??? The Broncos were not the only team that didn't project these players to be what they have turned into. If we trade Lock this year and he goes on to be a very good QB and we draft Fields and he is another in a long line of 1st round busts I think it looks worse. My opinion and we are all entitled to our own. I heard something that every 1st round QB since 2016 is no longer with the team that drafted them except Watson, and he wants out of Houston.

I agree we need better QB play and I hope Lock becomes that guy and we can stop searching. If not then I can be wrong (I am used to it) and we can continue our search.

Most of those guys you listed were not top-10 pick guys except Mahomes and the Broncos were not in position to draft him. We are talking about a top-9 pick QB here where most teams will have this QB valued very high. I would say the 2011 draft is one where teams really missed on the evaluations, but for the most part the top QB's are drafted early in the draft. There are the few exceptions like Brady, Mahomes, and Prescott but they are the exception not the rule. Really if you look throughout NFL history there is a huge drop off after the top-10 picks of how often a player would work out.

And it is that no QB 2016 and earlier is still with their original team that was taken in the 1st round. There are still a lot of those guys that got big 2nd contracts for good QB play though so I wouldn't completely discount them at this point. 2017 has Watson with the Texans and Mahomes with the Chiefs. 2018 has all the original guys in the 1st with their team except Rosen, but we shall see on Sam Darnold what happens there. The last stat I saw was that taking a QB in the 1st round you had a hit percentage of 63%. The 2nd round that drops to 27%. So Lock making it to the 2nd round the odds were stacked against him. Doesn't mean he will bust by any means but there are a lot of historical stats right now saying there is less than a 5% chance that he turns it around.

 

[fightinredantz]

Most of those guys you listed were not top-10 pick guys except Mahomes and the Broncos were not in position to draft him. We are talking about a top-9 pick QB here where most teams will have this QB valued very high. I would say the 2011 draft is one where teams really missed on the evaluations, but for the most part the top QB's are drafted early in the draft. There are the few exceptions like Brady, Mahomes, and Prescott but they are the exception not the rule. Really if you look throughout NFL history there is a huge drop off after the top-10 picks of how often a player would work out.

And it is that no QB 2016 and earlier is still with their original team that was taken in the 1st round. There are still a lot of those guys that got big 2nd contracts for good QB play though so I wouldn't completely discount them at this point. 2017 has Watson with the Texans and Mahomes with the Chiefs. 2018 has all the original guys in the 1st with their team except Rosen, but we shall see on Sam Darnold what happens there. The last stat I saw was that taking a QB in the 1st round you had a hit percentage of 63%. The 2nd round that drops to 27%. So Lock making it to the 2nd round the odds were stacked against him. Doesn't mean he will bust by any means but there are a lot of historical stats right now saying there is less than a 5% chance that he turns it around.

Yes, I now realized that I had that wrong. There was and end date which would excluded Mahomes.

 

[CEH]

Most of those guys you listed were not top-10 pick guys except Mahomes and the Broncos were not in position to draft him. We are talking about a top-9 pick QB here where most teams will have this QB valued very high. I would say the 2011 draft is one where teams really missed on the evaluations, but for the most part the top QB's are drafted early in the draft. There are the few exceptions like Brady, Mahomes, and Prescott but they are the exception not the rule. Really if you look throughout NFL history there is a huge drop off after the top-10 picks of how often a player would work out.

And it is that no QB 2016 and earlier is still with their original team that was taken in the 1st round. There are still a lot of those guys that got big 2nd contracts for good QB play though so I wouldn't completely discount them at this point. 2017 has Watson with the Texans and Mahomes with the Chiefs. 2018 has all the original guys in the 1st with their team except Rosen, but we shall see on Sam Darnold what happens there. The last stat I saw was that taking a QB in the 1st round you had a hit percentage of 63%. The 2nd round that drops to 27%. So Lock making it to the 2nd round the odds were stacked against him. Doesn't mean he will bust by any means but there are a lot of historical stats right now saying there is less than a 5% chance that he turns it around.

I’m to the point these QB contracts are stupid expensive

If they think Lock could be a carr level QB I don’t want to see the contract for that level of QB. It would be $25M per year


draft a rookie now and you control the contract for 6 years if they really like a QB and can get him

 

[CEH]

Enjoy

 

[cdumler7]

I’m to the point these QB contracts are stupid expensive

If they think Lock could be a carr level QB I don’t want to see the contract for that level of QB. It would be $25M per year


draft a rookie now and you control the contract for 6 years if they really like a QB and can get him

In two years time you are looking at the average guys getting $35-40 million a year. NFL teams unfortunately operate too often from a place of fear. They would rather pay an average QB to help keep them at that 7-9 to 10-6 range for years than take a chance on a QB that could get them over the top. Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Jimmy G, Teddy Bridgewater, even Ryan Tannehill to a point. You would rather pay these guys because you fear how many guys that will get fired if it doesn't work out with a rookie getting drafted.

And yes right now especially with the Broncos ownership situation I would rather go for a rookie QB so that you can at least surround them with a competent roster most years and just hope that they work out well.

 

[Draft Crazy]

Great news.

“DUI charges against Denver Broncos Melvin Gordon dismissed per court filing this morning obtained by Denver7. He pleads to reckless driving. This means Broncos cannot void guarantees in his contract. NFL can sill levy punishment, but unlikely now. Gordon is due $4.5 million guarantee in salary, with $2 million in roster bonuses. He is due to make $7 million essentially. He led Broncos with 10 rushing touchdowns last year.” Troy Rencek

 

[Draft Crazy]

That's a heck of a promotion your giving Trevor Lawrence there to be mentioned in that sentence.

I feel Lawrence has proved himself to be very mature. Doesn’t mean mean he will turn out as good as the other names mentioned but my money is on him being very successful.

 

[cdumler7]

Great news.

“DUI charges against Denver Broncos Melvin Gordon dismissed per court filing this morning obtained by Denver7. He pleads to reckless driving. This means Broncos cannot void guarantees in his contract. NFL can sill levy punishment, but unlikely now. Gordon is due $4.5 million guarantee in salary, with $2 million in roster bonuses. He is due to make $7 million essentially. He led Broncos with 10 rushing touchdowns last year.” Troy Rencek

I do wonder what this means for Lindsay. Starting to lean towards them giving him an original round tender and him not being back with the Broncos.

 

[CEH]

Some rumors have denver trading back and selecting N Harris

 

[nflbronco]

Some rumors have denver trading back and selecting N Harris

With Paton RB is more likely a top 3 round thing but, hope we go elsewhere.

 

[cdumler7]

With Paton RB is more likely a top 3 round thing but, hope we go elsewhere.

I'm honestly not so sure about this. Elway took 3 RB's in the top-3 rounds of the draft. Ball, Hillman, and Freeman. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Broncos use an early pick on one but I think Elway would be thinking something similar in terms of trying to find a guy.

 

[Orange Crush77]

Some rumors have denver trading back and selecting N Harris

That would be disappointing, especially with the caliber of talent at the top

 

[CEH]

Great news.

“DUI charges against Denver Broncos Melvin Gordon dismissed per court filing this morning obtained by Denver7. He pleads to reckless driving. This means Broncos cannot void guarantees in his contract. NFL can sill levy punishment, but unlikely now. Gordon is due $4.5 million guarantee in salary, with $2 million in roster bonuses. He is due to make $7 million essentially. He led Broncos with 10 rushing touchdowns last year.” Troy Rencek

Aaron Jones is a FA prize RB. Over the last 3 years , Gordon has put up similar stats . Jones has barely cracked 1K.
I gotta think swap out Jones and Gordon, Melvin would look really good behind Rodgers

I want to keep Melvin. Shurmur just needs to use him from jump like he was in the 2nd half of the season.

 

[Draft Crazy]

Shurmur just needs to use him from jump like he was in the 2nd half of the season.

Bingo. I am torn in taking a RB early but if we end up with Travis Etienne I may streak across Colorado in Lucas’ horse head.

 

[Mingo]

Bingo. I am torn in taking a RB early but if we end up with Travis Etienne I may streak across Colorado in Lucas’ horse head.

Please wear the bib overalls @SpringStein gave you.

 

[Orange Crush77]

Bingo. I am torn in taking a RB early but if we end up with Travis Etienne I may streak across Colorado in Lucas’ horse head.

Where is lucas

 

[nflbronco]

I haven't heard from him in a year concerned indeed