2018 Rule 5 Draft thread

[LHG]

We've got 6 days until the Giants have to decide who they are going to protect from the Rule 5 Draft and another 17 days to the draft itself. So I thought I'd start a thread dedicated to one of the drafts that most baseball fans didn't even know exist. Have at it with your insights, ideas, thoughts and wild speculations as it relates to this draft and the Giants (heck, share your favorite picks by the Giants from previous years).
I'll take the next few days to list out all the guys (that I know of) who are eligible to be picked out of the Giants org. I know we've already discussed much of this in the off season's main thread, but I like pointing out the different players, including the ones who've got no case at being picked.

 

[LHG]

Today, I thought I'd start with the smallest position group eligible - the catchers. Below are the 4 I understand are eligible for the Rule 5 draft:

Bryan Case - He most certainly will NOT be picked. He hasn't even played a professional game in two years. Yet the Giants still control his rights and he has not officially retired. My guess is that he is one of those guys they keep around for emergencies. He'll more likely be a bullpen catcher somewhere in 2019 than on a 40 man roster.

Ronnie Freeman - I'm a bit perplexed as to why he is not a minor league free agent. He's played a total of 7 minor league seasons and I have not heard of any minor league deal with the Giants for 2019. But while he is not a free agent, he is most certainly eligible for the Rule 5. He almost made his big league debut this year, traveling with the team for a bit in August but not getting the official call. His numbers at AAA weren't that great (.264/.304/.353) in 61 games but much better than what he'd done with Richmond earlier in the year (.194/.306/.194 in 12 games). His AAA numbers are in line with his career averages, so I doubt he'll get protected.

Tanner Murphy - Another minor league catcher the Giants acquired in 2018 (Freeman being the other), Murphy's numbers in San Jose were atrocious. In 40 games (before ending the year on the dl), he hit .172/.269/.195. I think its safe to say that he can be just fine left unprotected.

Matt Winn - Winn is an interesting possibility. He generally starts his seasons well offensively, posting OPS close to .800, before nosediving in the 2nd half of his seasons. His best year so far was in 2016 with Augusta, where he hit .230/.325/.393 before logging a .250/.288/.411 slash in 15 games with Richmond. The past two years, he's spent most of his time in San Jose, with a total of 31 more games logged in Richmond. Considering the lack of hitting overall in the Giants' farm system, Winn's .233/.303/.419 in San Jose this year looks amazing. However, he's been stuck behind Aramis Garcia and so he'll most likely start 2019 in Richmond at the age of 26. He hasn't looked that good in the AZL (but has heated up a bit of late) and considering his age, I doubt he gets protected.

 

[stanford the manford]

What are the Cliff Notes on Rule 5 Draft? (for those of us whose knowledge of baseball is limited to drinking beer and heckling the Dodgers...)

Don't really need to know, but I'm over the NFL, Stanford's football season is cooked, golf is dormant, the Warriors are becoming drama queens, and college baseball has yet to start... gotta keep from getting bored

 

[SFGRTB]

What are the Cliff Notes on Rule 5 Draft? (for those of us whose knowledge of baseball is limited to drinking beer and heckling the Dodgers...)

Don't really need to know, but I'm over the NFL, Stanford's football season is cooked, golf is dormant, the Warriors are becoming drama queens, and college baseball has yet to start... gotta keep from getting bored

Certain minor leaguers that have been with a club for a few year (depending on when they signed and their age) are eligible to be taken away by other teams if they aren't "protected." Teams protect their prospects by adding them to the 40-man roster.

Many, many minor leaguers are rule-5 eligible every year, but only a handful are really threats to be selected by other teams. Why? Because if the other team selects a prospect in the draft, they must remain on the team's 25-man roster ALL-SEASON to be retained. Not every team selects a player, and even fewer even make it the whole year.

That being said, it's a game of chicken. Obviously the top prospects are usually added before this becomes a problem, but those fringy guys may not be. A team has to make a decision to add them or expose them to the draft. There's always a team lurking like the Padres that took FIVE players one year (I forget how many they ended up keeping, but they got a couple interesting players.

Chris Shaw would have been eligible for the rule-5 draft this year. Joey Bart is not eligible until 2021.

Basically it's a way for prospects to avoid being "slow-played" or blocked by forcing the team's hand.

 

[SFGRTB]

Today, I thought I'd start with the smallest position group eligible - the catchers. Below are the 4 I understand are eligible for the Rule 5 draft:

Bryan Case - He most certainly will NOT be picked. He hasn't even played a professional game in two years. Yet the Giants still control his rights and he has not officially retired. My guess is that he is one of those guys they keep around for emergencies. He'll more likely be a bullpen catcher somewhere in 2019 than on a 40 man roster.

Ronnie Freeman - I'm a bit perplexed as to why he is not a minor league free agent. He's played a total of 7 minor league seasons and I have not heard of any minor league deal with the Giants for 2019. But while he is not a free agent, he is most certainly eligible for the Rule 5. He almost made his big league debut this year, traveling with the team for a bit in August but not getting the official call. His numbers at AAA weren't that great (.264/.304/.353) in 61 games but much better than what he'd done with Richmond earlier in the year (.194/.306/.194 in 12 games). His AAA numbers are in line with his career averages, so I doubt he'll get protected.

Tanner Murphy - Another minor league catcher the Giants acquired in 2018 (Freeman being the other), Murphy's numbers in San Jose were atrocious. In 40 games (before ending the year on the dl), he hit .172/.269/.195. I think its safe to say that he can be just fine left unprotected.

Matt Winn - Winn is an interesting possibility. He generally starts his seasons well offensively, posting OPS close to .800, before nosediving in the 2nd half of his seasons. His best year so far was in 2016 with Augusta, where he hit .230/.325/.393 before logging a .250/.288/.411 slash in 15 games with Richmond. The past two years, he's spent most of his time in San Jose, with a total of 31 more games logged in Richmond. Considering the lack of hitting overall in the Giants' farm system, Winn's .233/.303/.419 in San Jose this year looks amazing. However, he's been stuck behind Aramis Garcia and so he'll most likely start 2019 in Richmond at the age of 26. He hasn't looked that good in the AZL (but has heated up a bit of late) and considering his age, I doubt he gets protected.

Pass x4

 

[LHG]

Certain minor leaguers that have been with a club for a few year (depending on when they signed and their age) are eligible to be taken away by other teams if they aren't "protected." Teams protect their prospects by adding them to the 40-man roster.

Many, many minor leaguers are rule-5 eligible every year, but only a handful are really threats to be selected by other teams. Why? Because if the other team selects a prospect in the draft, they must remain on the team's 25-man roster ALL-SEASON to be retained. Not every team selects a player, and even fewer even make it the whole year.

That being said, it's a game of chicken. Obviously the top prospects are usually added before this becomes a problem, but those fringy guys may not be. A team has to make a decision to add them or expose them to the draft. There's always a team lurking like the Padres that took FIVE players one year (I forget how many they ended up keeping, but they got a couple interesting players.

Chris Shaw would have been eligible for the rule-5 draft this year. Joey Bart is not eligible until 2021.

Basically it's a way for prospects to avoid being "slow-played" or blocked by forcing the team's hand.

Thanks SFGRTB. To add to that, players become eligible for the Rule 5 draft 5 years after they are drafted, if 18 years old or younger at the time that they signed, or 4 years after they are drafted if 19 years old or older at the time of signing.

Also, I've grabbed a bit from our Terms sticky that is specific to the Rule 5:

First, the major league portion of the rule 5 draft :
A player must remain on the majors league roster all season or be offered back to his old team. It is OK if he is on the DL, they don't *automatically* lose him. BUT, if a player selected in the Rule 5 draft spends less than 90 days on the active Major League roster because he is on the DL, he also must remain on the Major League roster the next season until he has a total of 90 days on the MLB active roster. All major league Rule 5 picks cost the drafting team $50,000, and those selected must remain on the 25-man roster for the entire 2019 season or else be placed on waivers.

Now, the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft :
There are two minor-league phases. In the Triple-A phase, a player not protected on his club’s 40-man roster or 38-man Triple-A reserve list may be selected for $12,000. In the AA phase, a player not protected on his club’s 40-man roster, 38-man Triple-A reserve list or 37-man Double-A reserve list may be selected for $4,000. A player selected in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 draft is not required to play the next season with his drafting club at the higher organizational level.

 

[LHG]

The next group of players to profile are the outfielders. I count 5 that should be Rule 5 eligible. They are:

Jean Angomas - Primarily a left fielder in his time with the Giants org, Angomas has been stuck at Augusta for the past 3 years and has yet to hit there. His best year was 2017, slashing .292/.338/.356 with mediocre basestealing skills (10 for 19). He only logged 22 games at Augusta in 2018 before an injury finished his season in early May. In those 22 games, his OPS went down from .694 in 2017 to .685.

Dylan Davis - Two years ago, this guy seemed destined to be protected from the Rule 5. However, that 2016 season came one year too early for him. In the past two years at Richmond, Davis' power evaporated. He went from slugging .544 in San Jose in 2016 to .361 in 2017 and .400 in 2018. His on base skills deteriorated too, going from .344 to .280 to .284. He's played a bit of right field over his career but has been almost exclusively a left fielder in 2018.

Mike Edie - This guy is an intriguing name on this list, if just for the fact that he will be 21 years old when the 2019 season starts. He struggled mightily in his first two seasons stateside in the AZL before finally putting together a good year there in 2017. He followed that up with a solid season in Salem-Keizer. In 36 games there, he hit .328/.401/.400 with a 50% steal success rate (in 16 attempts). He played right field (with some games in center field) but was stuck behind Dalton Combs in right and Jose Layer in center. I don't know if he'll get a chance to play full time but his offense warrants that look.

Johneshwy Fargas - He was eligible for the Rule 5 last year and safely made it through. I don't have any doubt he'll do the same again this year. Fargas has bounced between San Jose and Augusta in 2016 and 2017, not showing anything with the bat at high A ball. However, he did do much better in his 3rd go around in the Cal League. He finished the season strong, hitting .288/.354/.421 in 278 at-bats. He too dealt with injuries, missing a good chunk of the season. Yet, in the time he did play, he stole 47 bases, but with a 75% success rate. Fargas plays all three outfield positions, splitting time pretty evenly in San Jose. He'll be 24 years old when the 2019 season starts, and I expect him to have a shot playing with Richmond.

Ronnie Jebavy - This guy will be lucky not to get released this offseason. He looked pretty mediocre with the bat in two seasons with San Jose but still got moved up to Richmond in 2018. The results were not pretty. In 76 games with the Flying Squirrels, he hit an atrocious .168/.265/.261. Exclusively a center fielder, his defense is purported to be excellent. If only he could hit. He'll turn 25 next May and I expect him to repeat Richmond in 2019.

 

[SFGRTB]

The next group of players to profile are the outfielders. I count 5 that should be Rule 5 eligible. They are:

Jean Angomas - Primarily a left fielder in his time with the Giants org, Angomas has been stuck at Augusta for the past 3 years and has yet to hit there. His best year was 2017, slashing .292/.338/.356 with mediocre basestealing skills (10 for 19). He only logged 22 games at Augusta in 2018 before an injury finished his season in early May. In those 22 games, his OPS went down from .694 in 2017 to .685.

Dylan Davis - Two years ago, this guy seemed destined to be protected from the Rule 5. However, that 2016 season came one year too early for him. In the past two years at Richmond, Davis' power evaporated. He went from slugging .544 in San Jose in 2016 to .361 in 2017 and .400 in 2018. His on base skills deteriorated too, going from .344 to .280 to .284. He's played a bit of right field over his career but has been almost exclusively a left fielder in 2018.

Mike Edie - This guy is an intriguing name on this list, if just for the fact that he will be 21 years old when the 2019 season starts. He struggled mightily in his first two seasons stateside in the AZL before finally putting together a good year there in 2017. He followed that up with a solid season in Salem-Keizer. In 36 games there, he hit .328/.401/.400 with a 50% steal success rate (in 16 attempts). He played right field (with some games in center field) but was stuck behind Dalton Combs in right and Jose Layer in center. I don't know if he'll get a chance to play full time but his offense warrants that look.

Johneshwy Fargas - He was eligible for the Rule 5 last year and safely made it through. I don't have any doubt he'll do the same again this year. Fargas has bounced between San Jose and Augusta in 2016 and 2017, not showing anything with the bat at high A ball. However, he did do much better in his 3rd go around in the Cal League. He finished the season strong, hitting .288/.354/.421 in 278 at-bats. He too dealt with injuries, missing a good chunk of the season. Yet, in the time he did play, he stole 47 bases, but with a 75% success rate. Fargas plays all three outfield positions, splitting time pretty evenly in San Jose. He'll be 24 years old when the 2019 season starts, and I expect him to have a shot playing with Richmond.

Ronnie Jebavy - This guy will be lucky not to get released this offseason. He looked pretty mediocre with the bat in two seasons with San Jose but still got moved up to Richmond in 2018. The results were not pretty. In 76 games with the Flying Squirrels, he hit an atrocious .168/.265/.261. Exclusively a center fielder, his defense is purported to be excellent. If only he could hit. He'll turn 25 next May and I expect him to repeat Richmond in 2019.

Davis had a shot to be a Jarrett Parker type, but he was nowhere near as athletic and when a few injuries and tougher competition came into play, he faded.

Edie has always had interesting tools but has faced the injury bug a lot as well. He was a part-time player in Salem as the result of that, and because there was a lot of talent there. He's interesting, but the ceiling isn't high enough for a team to hold him for a year, or trade for him.

Fargas is exciting and maybe a team out there wants him for his speed, but he's not going to provide much more. It's not world-class Billy Hamilton speed either. Team can find a Fargas elsewhere.

Wish Jebavy's bat came around. He could've been a great 4th-OFer.

I think you forgot Sandro Fabian. Unlikely he is selected anyway.

 

[stanford the manford]

Certain minor leaguers that have been with a club for a few year (depending on when they signed and their age) are eligible to be taken away by other teams if they aren't "protected." Teams protect their prospects by adding them to the 40-man roster.

Many, many minor leaguers are rule-5 eligible every year, but only a handful are really threats to be selected by other teams. Why? Because if the other team selects a prospect in the draft, they must remain on the team's 25-man roster ALL-SEASON to be retained. Not every team selects a player, and even fewer even make it the whole year.

That being said, it's a game of chicken. Obviously the top prospects are usually added before this becomes a problem, but those fringy guys may not be. A team has to make a decision to add them or expose them to the draft. There's always a team lurking like the Padres that took FIVE players one year (I forget how many they ended up keeping, but they got a couple interesting players.

Chris Shaw would have been eligible for the rule-5 draft this year. Joey Bart is not eligible until 2021.

Basically it's a way for prospects to avoid being "slow-played" or blocked by forcing the team's hand.

Thanks.... Glad I was passed over for the Giant's GM job. No way could I ever fathom the idiosyncrasies of personnel rules that govern MLB....

 

[LHG]

Davis had a shot to be a Jarrett Parker type, but he was nowhere near as athletic and when a few injuries and tougher competition came into play, he faded.

Edie has always had interesting tools but has faced the injury bug a lot as well. He was a part-time player in Salem as the result of that, and because there was a lot of talent there. He's interesting, but the ceiling isn't high enough for a team to hold him for a year, or trade for him.

Fargas is exciting and maybe a team out there wants him for his speed, but he's not going to provide much more. It's not world-class Billy Hamilton speed either. Team can find a Fargas elsewhere.

Wish Jebavy's bat came around. He could've been a great 4th-OFer.

I think you forgot Sandro Fabian. Unlikely he is selected anyway.

Fabian shouldn't be eligible until next year since, while he signed in 2014, he didn't start playing until 2015. The rule is that a player who is signed under the age of 18 at the time of signing and has played 5 years of professional baseball is eligible.

 

[SFGRTB]

Fabian shouldn't be eligible until next year since, while he signed in 2014, he didn't start playing until 2015. The rule is that a player who is signed under the age of 18 at the time of signing and has played 5 years of professional baseball is eligible.

I don't think the terminology is quite correct there. I think just being in the organization counts. So Fabian signed in 2014, didn't play, but that still counted as a year.

 

[SFGRTB]

It SHOULD be for seasons played, but I don't think it is.

 

[Stokes1931]

The next group of players to profile are the outfielders. I count 5 that should be Rule 5 eligible. They are:

Jean Angomas - Primarily a left fielder in his time with the Giants org, Angomas has been stuck at Augusta for the past 3 years and has yet to hit there. His best year was 2017, slashing .292/.338/.356 with mediocre basestealing skills (10 for 19). He only logged 22 games at Augusta in 2018 before an injury finished his season in early May. In those 22 games, his OPS went down from .694 in 2017 to .685.

Dylan Davis - Two years ago, this guy seemed destined to be protected from the Rule 5. However, that 2016 season came one year too early for him. In the past two years at Richmond, Davis' power evaporated. He went from slugging .544 in San Jose in 2016 to .361 in 2017 and .400 in 2018. His on base skills deteriorated too, going from .344 to .280 to .284. He's played a bit of right field over his career but has been almost exclusively a left fielder in 2018.

Mike Edie - This guy is an intriguing name on this list, if just for the fact that he will be 21 years old when the 2019 season starts. He struggled mightily in his first two seasons stateside in the AZL before finally putting together a good year there in 2017. He followed that up with a solid season in Salem-Keizer. In 36 games there, he hit .328/.401/.400 with a 50% steal success rate (in 16 attempts). He played right field (with some games in center field) but was stuck behind Dalton Combs in right and Jose Layer in center. I don't know if he'll get a chance to play full time but his offense warrants that look.

Johneshwy Fargas - He was eligible for the Rule 5 last year and safely made it through. I don't have any doubt he'll do the same again this year. Fargas has bounced between San Jose and Augusta in 2016 and 2017, not showing anything with the bat at high A ball. However, he did do much better in his 3rd go around in the Cal League. He finished the season strong, hitting .288/.354/.421 in 278 at-bats. He too dealt with injuries, missing a good chunk of the season. Yet, in the time he did play, he stole 47 bases, but with a 75% success rate. Fargas plays all three outfield positions, splitting time pretty evenly in San Jose. He'll be 24 years old when the 2019 season starts, and I expect him to have a shot playing with Richmond.

Ronnie Jebavy - This guy will be lucky not to get released this offseason. He looked pretty mediocre with the bat in two seasons with San Jose but still got moved up to Richmond in 2018. The results were not pretty. In 76 games with the Flying Squirrels, he hit an atrocious .168/.265/.261. Exclusively a center fielder, his defense is purported to be excellent. If only he could hit. He'll turn 25 next May and I expect him to repeat Richmond in 2019.

Fargas has a serious arm in the OF. In each of the last two seasons he has had 10 OF assists. Can he hit above High A? I agree that few teams would want him, so I don't expect him to be protected. One of my minor league favorites, if only for the name.

 

[SFGRTB]

Fargas has a serious arm in the OF. In each of the last two seasons he has had 10 OF assists. Can he hit above High A? I agree that few teams would want him, so I don't expect him to be protected. One of my minor league favorites, if only for the name.

I hope he makes it one day just because of the name

 

[LHG]

I don't think the terminology is quite correct there. I think just being in the organization counts. So Fabian signed in 2014, didn't play, but that still counted as a year.

Looked up Cot's and this is what they say:
"For purposes of calculating years as a pro, counting begins the day a player signs his first pro contract, not the season he begins play."
Fabian signed his contract on July 2nd, 2014, so 5 years from that would be July 2nd, 2019.

 

[SFGRTB]

Looked up Cot's and this is what they say:
"For purposes of calculating years as a pro, counting begins the day a player signs his first pro contract, not the season he begins play."
Fabian signed his contract on July 2nd, 2014, so 5 years from that would be July 2nd, 2019.

This is definitely a gray area. I've always interpreted it as seasons. Take Melvin Adon, for example. He was signed in February 2015 as a 20 year old. 4 seasons later, he's rule 5 eligible.

 

[LHG]

This is definitely a gray area. I've always interpreted it as seasons. Take Melvin Adon, for example. He was signed in February 2015 as a 20 year old. 4 seasons later, he's rule 5 eligible.

So I would interpret his case to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft at the end of the 2019 calendar.
In Fabian's case, whether based on number of seasons played or years from the date of signing, he would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft at the same time.
I think the situation that would be the most interesting is if an international kid signs in June or July and gets put in organizational ball right away. In that scenario, he may actually not be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until after 6 seasons in organized ball.

 

[SFGRTB]

So I would interpret his case to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft at the end of the 2019 calendar.
In Fabian's case, whether based on number of seasons played or years from the date of signing, he would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft at the same time.
I think the situation that would be the most interesting is if an international kid signs in June or July and gets put in organizational ball right away. In that scenario, he may actually not be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until after 6 seasons in organized ball.

Unfortunately that's not how it works. The year they sign in counts as a season, regardless if they play or not. In Fabian's case it's been 5 seasons since he signed (2014, '15, '16, '17, '18)

I don't follow the bold portion.

 

[SFGRTB]

This article was conveniently timed: When Signing Ronaldo Hernandez, The Rays Made A Clever Decision

"Normally, as a 2014 international signee who signed during the season Hernandez would be Rule 5 eligible this offseason. Hernandez is not ready to play in the major leagues, but the Rays would face a difficult decision by Tuesday’s deadline to add players to the 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft....

The Rays don’t have to worry about any such decision because they were clever. Hernandez signed his contract on Aug. 9, a little over a month after he was first eligible to sign. Normally, that would make him eligible for the Rule 5 draft. But the Rays had a team in the Venezuelan Summer League that year (in the second to last year of the now-defunct league). While every other league in baseball (including the Dominican Summer League) runs until late August, the VSL’s season finished on Aug. 4.

So when the Rays signed Hernandez and assigned him to the VSL, he was added to a roster for a team whose season had already wrapped up. By rule, that meant that he was to be treated as an offseason signee. That means that Hernandez will not be Rule 5 eligible (and needed to be protected) until the 2019 season ends"

 

[LHG]

Unfortunately that's not how it works. The year they sign in counts as a season, regardless if they play or not. In Fabian's case it's been 5 seasons since he signed (2014, '15, '16, '17, '18)

I don't follow the bold portion.

The bold portion is a scenario based on my interpretation of the rule.

Unfortunately, I don't have a subscription with BA any longer. I see that the article notes that he was assigned to a roster. Typically, the Giants don't assign their international signees to rosters that season. If a player isn't assigned to a roster, and the new signing period has started, does that first year really count?