2016 Top Prospects

[LHG]

I could totally see that group together, as Ragira should be moving up to AA. If he doesn't move up, then he shouldn't be taking ABs away from Gomez, Shaw, Arenado, and Garcia. He should be trying out a new position, or a depth player. With the DH, it shouldn't be too difficult to find ABs for all 4 guys.

I meant that group with Ragira. If he is moved up, then that infield is very possible. I think the weakest link will be 2nd base. Will Callaway maybe? I do think it is very possible C.J. Hinojosa is the shortstop with the team.
The outfield will be a battle between Junior Arias, Dylan Davis, Steven Duggar, Johneshwy Fargas, Seth Harrison, Tyler Horan and maybe Cristian Paulino.

 

[SFGRTB]

I meant that group with Ragira. If he is moved up, then that infield is very possible. I think the weakest link will be 2nd base. Will Callaway maybe? I do think it is very possible C.J. Hinojosa is the shortstop with the team.
The outfield will be a battle between Junior Arias, Dylan Davis, Steven Duggar, Johneshwy Fargas, Seth Harrison, Tyler Horan and maybe Cristian Paulino.

I gotcha.

Yeah the Giants are definitely lagging in the 2B department. The team isn't ready to move their younger guys of SS just yet.

I agree that Fargas should be there. Other than that, we'll see. Most of the San Jose outfield was terrible last year. No one really earned a promotion. Davis struggled with injuries and was demoted last year, so maybe he makes it back to San Jose. Horan tore up SJ in a late 2014 promotion, but struggled in 2015.

 

[Stokes1931]

Fargas' season at Augusta was cut short due to injury. But the dude has serious tools, all except power. Defense, speed, contact. Looking forward to seeing him in San Jose this season, or wherever San Jose plays in the valley this summer.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Don't worry, I'm not writing Arenado in as the 3rd-baseman of the future (and Rockies killer) or anything like that. But I think you're casting the kids off a little too much. Talent in the lower minors is more than a pipe dream. It opens more trade possibilities. It gives instructors something to work with. It pushes other guys to step up their game (okay this can't really be proven, but competition is good). It gives better chances of a "hit" on a prospect.

The thing is, there is a lot of depth for the big club right now. There's probably 7 arms they could bring up and be effective right now. Most were drafted and developed by the Giants, once A-ballers. It can't hurt to have talent in the lower minors, and this is easily the most we've had since the Bonds-twilight/Pre-championship years.

Plus, it'll be a lot of fun to go see some San Jose Giants games this year.

Sorry, I guess I wasn't clear. My point was supposed to be "don't count on any 'top prospect' in A level or below"; that was the 'pipe dream' comment. Look at any 'top 10' list (for the Giants) of the past 10 years and look at anybody at 'A' level or below in the list and you will see that almost all of them never stuck in the majors and most never even got a cup of coffee (well, if you discount top-10 first round picks, and many of those didn't also).

 

[Stokes1931]

Giants Minor League Camp Storylines


The official blog of the San Jose Giants, Class A Advanced affiliate of the San Francisco Giants.
Giants Minor League Camp Storylines

By Joe Ritzo

Spring training gets underway next week while we’re now less than two months from the San Jose Giants season opener. The San Francisco Giants (all members of the 40-man roster plus the 21 non-roster invitees) will hold their first official full team workout of the spring on February 23 and then all remaining minor leaguers report to camp during the opening week of March.

With over 160 players expected in minor league camp next month, there are a bevy of questions regarding personnel and roster decisions. Here’s a quick snapshot of some of the primary storylines in Giants minor league camp this year, involving both former and potential future San Jose players:




Will former first round pick Tyler Beede open the season in Richmond or Sacramento?

First Round Picks
The San Francisco Giants took a pair of right-handed starting pitchers with their last two top draft picks in Tyler Beede (2014) and Phil Bickford (2015). Beede had an outstanding first half a season ago in San Jose before an up-and-down second half with the Double-A Richmond Flying Squirrels. Meanwhile, Bickford saw limited action in the Arizona Rookie League last summer after signing his professional contract. The progress of both hurlers – arguably the top two pitching prospects in the system – will be watched closely this year, beginning with spring training. Advancing to the Double-A level in his first full professional season was a significant accomplishment for Beede and he had several impressive moments in the Eastern League despite an ERA over five. Does a strong spring training elevate Beede all the way to Triple-A Sacramento in April or does he return to Richmond? If he ends up back with the Flying Squirrels, could Beede then follow a similar path to his 2015: excel in the first half and earn a midseason promotion. As for Bickford, does the organization push him to San Jose for the start of his first full professional season, just as they did with Beede last April? At just age 20 though and with far less experience (Beede pitched in College World Series’ at Vanderbilt while Bickford was drafted out of the junior college ranks), a spot in Augusta’s rotation to open the year is perhaps the most likely destination.





Andrew Suarez is a 2015 draftee who could begin the year in San Jose

2015 Draft Class – Who Jumps To San Jose?
Every year there are a handful of players who begin their first full professional season with an assignment to San Jose. Mac Williamson and Ty Blach did it in 2013 while Blake Miller and Brian Ragira were among the first-year pros on the 2014 San Jose opening day roster. Last year, Beede and Austin Slater were the two first-year players on the San Jose roster coming out of camp and both proved very worthy of the assignment as each earned All-Star honors and midseason promotions to Double-A. In addition to Bickford, there are several 2015 early-round draftees who could be in line for a spot in San Jose this April with a strong spring training. First baseman Chris Shaw, a supplemental first round pick last June, led the Northwest League with 12 home runs last summer while playing for Salem-Keizer. The organization lacks other top first base prospects right now, so Shaw could easily jump on the fast-track with a big 2016. Second rounder Andrew Suarez has already seen time in San Jose making three successful starts late last season after a promotion from Salem-Keizer. The left-hander is a logical candidate to return to the Cal League this April. Sixth rounder Steven Duggar had a solid summer in Salem before receiving a promotion to San Jose for the Championship Series. Given the lack of standout outfielders in Augusta last season, Duggar, who played his college ball at ACC powerhouse Clemson, might find himself in San Jose with an impressive spring. Shortstop C.J. Hinojosa (11th rounder) is another possibility to make San Jose’s team coming out of camp.





Austin Slater hit .294 between San Jose and Richmond last season

2015 Breakout Performers – What’s Next?
There were several breakout performers during the 2015 Giants minor league season – now what do they have in store for an encore? Former third rounder Chase Johnson was a California League All-Star and San Jose’s Pitcher of the Year last season. He earned a mid-August promotion to Richmond and is probably headed back to the Flying Squirrels for the start of 2016. Shortstop Rando Moreno came out of nowhere to earn Eastern League All-Star honors in Richmond last year. He’ll open this spring in big league camp, but will probably spend the bulk of March at the minor league complex. Can Moreno earn a spot on Sacramento’s roster coming out of camp or will he have to fight for time back in Richmond? Jake Smith and Ian Gardeck were standout relievers in San Jose last season and the organization certainly took notice as they placed both pitchers on the 40-man roster. In all likelihood, they open the year in Richmond’s bullpen, but given their 40-man status, a fast track option is always a possibility. Slater and Hunter Cole had breakout 2015 seasons that included California League All-Star honors and near .300 batting averages in Richmond during the second half. Both are clearly on the map now and will enter this year with high expectations. Could one or both challenge for a spot on the Triple-A roster this spring or will they have to show more in Richmond before earning a promotion?





Outfielder Tyler Horan will look to bounce back in 2016

Bouncing Back
Conversely, there are a handful of players who endured some struggles in 2015 and will look to this spring as a launching point for a bounce back season. What role is Kyle Crick going to have this season? The former #1 prospect in the system lost his spot in Richmond’s rotation last year and while he remained tough to hit throughout the campaign, the right-hander continued to struggle mightily with his control. Crick probably heads back to the Flying Squirrels this April, but does he get another opportunity at starting? Daniel Carbonell signed a big contract out of Cuba two years ago, but hit well below .200 in Richmond last season before significant defensive struggles in San Jose late in the year. Carbonell is no longer on the 40-man roster, but the organization is still heavily invested in the outfielder as he looks to bounce back in 2016. Does Carbonell begin to show signs of improvement this spring and perhaps get another opportunity at the Eastern League? Tyler Horan had a frustrating, injury-plagued 2015 season in San Jose after smashing 27 home runs a year earlier. Horan hit only .215 in the Cal League last season, but boasts intriguing left-handed power. Can he breakthrough this spring paving the way for a bounce back year, perhaps with a promotion to Double-A?


Any Surprises?
Will there be surprises with the roster assignments for any of the top prospects in the system? If not, look for Christian Arroyo to anchor the Richmond lineup come opening day. Clayton Blackburn will probably be back in Sacramento despite winning the Pacific Coast League ERA title last year. Top catching prospect Aramis Garcia figures to return to San Jose after a late-season promotion from Augusta. Top 10 prospect Sam Coonrod spent the entire 2015 regular season in Augusta before two impressive pitching performances for the Giants during the Cal League playoffs. The expectation is that Coonrod opens the year as the headline arm in the San Jose rotation, but could there be a spring surprise promotion to Richmond?




Will 40-man hurler Joan Gregorio be used as a starter or reliever this season?

The 40-Man Arms
The Giants certainly have some exciting pitching prospects on the 40-man roster. And while all of these arms will open spring training in big league camp, many will eventually find their way back at the minor league facility as March wears on. The progress of these pitchers this spring and their subsequent roster placement coming out of camp will be a major storyline. Can Ray Black, with his 100+ MPH fastball, begin to put together a full season of good health? After spending all of last season in San Jose, is Black headed to the Richmond bullpen or does the organization elevate him all the way to Sacramento? Adalberto Mejia missed the first half of last year serving a 50-game suspension, but made up for lost time with a solid second half in the Richmond rotation before a successful stint in the Arizona Fall League. Mejia remains one of the top starting pitching prospects in the system and will look to get his first taste of Triple-A ball coming out of camp this year. Derek Law came back from Tommy John surgery last season and was overall successful as Richmond’s closer down the stretch. With his major injury now even further in the rear-view mirror, does Law reestablish himself as an elite relief pitcher prospect in the system, perhaps as a late-inning arm in Sacramento? Joan Gregorio has flown a bit under the radar, but he proved tough to hit in Richmond last season, first as a reliever and then as a starting pitcher late in the season. Can Gregorio build on his successful year and will it be as a starter or a reliever?


Youngsters
The San Francisco Giants gave 18-year old Lucius Fox a $6 million signing bonus last summer and the youngester immediately became one of the top position player prospects in the system. 2016 will serve as Fox’s debut professional season and he’ll get it started down at spring training. Could Fox impress enough this spring to warrant time on Augusta’s roster this season or does he stay back in Arizona and kick things off in June at a Short-Season or Rookie-ball level? Jalen Miller, a third round pick last June, is another exciting young shortstop prospect in the system and will be going through his first spring. Miller played for the Arizona Rookie League Giants last summer after signing out of the high school ranks.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Lazaro 'Lazarito' Armenteros nearing decision

The Dodgers, Cubs, Giants and Royals -- who have each exceeded their bonus pools this year and won't be able to sign any pool-eligible prospects for more than $300,000 for the next two international signing periods -- are still in play for Armenteros during the current period.
​

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

High risk, perhaps (he's only 16), but lots of good reasons to go after this guy aggressively. We need good OF prospects desperately.

Good size already - 6'2", 205lb.

 

[SFGRTB]

Top 10 prospect list's so far:

Baseball America: San Francisco Giants Top 10 Prospects - BaseballAmerica.com



Baseball Prospectus: Baseball Prospectus | 2016 Prospects: San Francisco Giants Top 10 Prospects



MLB Pipeline 30(this one will be updated): MLB.com 2015 Prospect Watch

MLB Pipeline has updated their list for 2016: MLB.com 2016 Prospect Watch

Top 10:

1. Christian Arroyo
2. Tyler Beede
3. Phil Bickford
4. Lucius Fox
5. Chris Shaw
6. Sam Coonrod
7. Mac Williamson
8. Josh Osich
9. Aramis Garcia
10. Andrew Suarez

Suarez get's some love. Besides that (and Osich for some reason still being there), status quo.

Last big one I pay attention to is Fangraphs. Usually they have all their teams out by now, but they are slacking this year.

 

[SFGRTB]

Baseball America is running a top prospects by position.

Garcia ranks #13 among catchers, and gets a blurb: Top 100 Prospects Position Rankings: Catchers - BaseballAmerica.com

Shaw ranks #11 among 1st baseman, and gets a blurb Top 100 Prospects Position Rankings: First Basemen - BaseballAmerica.com

Bickford ranks #33, Beede #40, Coonrod #59, Ray Black #70, Chase Johnson #91, Jordan Johnson #99 among right-handed pitchers Top 100 Prospects Position Rankings: Righthanders - BaseballAmerica.com

More to come. No Giant was ranked in the top left-handed pitchers.

 

[SFGRTB]

Also, this article explaining some of MLB Pipeline's rankings. Giants' 2016 Top 30 Prospects revealed

 

[SFGRTB]

Really too bad to see Ian Gardeck go down with Tommy John. He was a ton of relief prospects, but he was one of the better ones.

 

[LHG]

Really too bad to see Ian Gardeck go down with Tommy John. He was a ton of relief prospects, but he was one of the better ones.

That is not good. However, I'm not sure why the Giants didn't just move him to the 60 day disabled list to open a spot on the 40 man roster for the inevitable non roster invitee making the team. Maybe they'll do that later in the season when they really need the spot (i.e. dfa Adrianza instead to open a spot at the end of spring training).

 

[MarcoPolo]

Really too bad to see Ian Gardeck go down with Tommy John. He was a ton of relief prospects, but he was one of the better ones.

Ian Gardeck was good *last year*, but honestly that was his only really good year. And 2015 was his 2nd year in San José, and he's old for that level (he was 24 all season). He could be a decent reliever, but I wouldn't have called him one of the better ones.

 

[MarcoPolo]

That is not good. However, I'm not sure why the Giants didn't just move him to the 60 day disabled list to open a spot on the 40 man roster for the inevitable non roster invitee making the team. Maybe they'll do that later in the season when they really need the spot (i.e. dfa Adrianza instead to open a spot at the end of spring training).

I think you nailed it, but here's an additional piece of info - you can't DFA a player if the 40-man isn't full. So you keep the roster full until you need (say) 2 spots, DFA Ehire and THEN move Gardeck to the 60-day.

Nobody likes to be injured, but Gardeck will make more on the 60-day than he has in his entire pro career (including his signing bonus since he went in the 16th round); he will be earning major league minimum, over $500K, for the 2016 season. Unless he's stupid, he should move to a state with low (or no) income tax and bank that money so it is available for the next 10-15 years to round out his months. $500K is more than most Americans make in 5 years of working full time. Baseball just paid off for Gardeck.

 

[SFGRTB]

Ian Gardeck was good *last year*, but honestly that was his only really good year. And 2015 was his 2nd year in San José, and he's old for that level (he was 24 all season). He could be a decent reliever, but I wouldn't have called him one of the better ones.

He's always had great stuff, 95-99 mph sinking fastball and a low 90s slider, just never had the command. Last year he was able to control where the ball was going and made a productive step forward.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think you nailed it, but here's an additional piece of info - you can't DFA a player if the 40-man isn't full. So you keep the roster full until you need (say) 2 spots, DFA Ehire and THEN move Gardeck to the 60-day...

is this true?

Suppose we have 39 players on the 40-man. One player (Broadway, for example) does not have any options, but also does not make the team. How would the club handle that situation?

 

[MarcoPolo]

I think you nailed it, but here's an additional piece of info - you can't DFA a player if the 40-man isn't full. So you keep the roster full until you need (say) 2 spots, DFA Ehire and THEN move Gardeck to the 60-day.

is this true?

Suppose we have 39 players on the 40-man. One player (Broadway, for example) does not have any options, but also does not make the team. How would the club handle that situation?

Yes, it is true. "DFA" is a very special, specific thing, and is far from the only way to send a guy to the minors. The team could :

1) place him on revocable waivers and if nobody claims him then he can be sent to the minors and stays on the 40-man. If at least one team claims him, then the team with the worst record last season (of all the teams that put in a claim) is the one team that can get him. You have 2 days to make a deal, or you can pull him back off waivers and play him in the majors. (Edit: 'team with the worst record last season' is true until April 30th. After that it becomes 'team with the worst record this season'. This is true for all waiver types.)

-or-

2) place him on irrevocable outright waivers. If nobody claims him then he can be sent to the minors and is removed from the 40-man. If at least one team claims him, then the team with the worst record last season (of all the teams that put in a claim) is the team that gets him (and assumes his contract).

-or-

3) place him on irrevocable unconditional release waivers. If nobody claims him then he becomes a free agent and is removed from the 40-man. If at least one team claims him, then the team with the worst record last season (of all the teams that put in a claim) is the team that gets him (and assumes his contract). A player can refuse the assignment, but he loses his guaranteed contract money (if any).

The advantage of DFA'ing a player rather than using any of the above waivers is that :
- (this is the big advantage) you can negotiate with ALL 29 other teams for a trade, instead of just the one with the crappiest record. This *greatly* increases the chance of finding a good trade partner.
- you have 10 days to resolve, instead of 2 or 3- you can DFA a player on a weekend (some, if not all, of the above waivers can only be done Mon-Fri).

 

[MarcoPolo]

PS: Copied above post to the 'Terms, Contracts, DFA Explained' sticky thread ...

 

[LHG]

Yes, it is true. "DFA" is a very special, specific thing, and is far from the only way to send a guy to the minors. The team could :

1) place him on revocable waivers and if nobody claims him then he can be sent to the minors and stays on the 40-man. If at least one team claims him, then the team with the worst record last season (of all the teams that put in a claim) is the one team that can get him. You have 2 days to make a deal, or you can pull him back off waivers and play him in the majors. (Edit: 'team with the worst record last season' is true until April 30th. After that it becomes 'team with the worst record this season'. This is true for all waiver types.)

-or-

2) place him on irrevocable outright waivers. If nobody claims him then he can be sent to the minors and is removed from the 40-man. If at least one team claims him, then the team with the worst record last season (of all the teams that put in a claim) is the team that gets him (and assumes his contract).

-or-

3) place him on irrevocable unconditional release waivers. If nobody claims him then he becomes a free agent and is removed from the 40-man. If at least one team claims him, then the team with the worst record last season (of all the teams that put in a claim) is the team that gets him (and assumes his contract). A player can refuse the assignment, but he loses his guaranteed contract money (if any).

The advantage of DFA'ing a player rather than using any of the above waivers is that :
- (this is the big advantage) you can negotiate with ALL 29 other teams for a trade, instead of just the one with the crappiest record. This *greatly* increases the chance of finding a good trade partner.
- you have 10 days to resolve, instead of 2 or 3- you can DFA a player on a weekend (some, if not all, of the above waivers can only be done Mon-Fri).

I knew there was another way but forgot the terms and details. Thanks for being our transactions expert.

 

[tzill]

I think you nailed it, but here's an additional piece of info - you can't DFA a player if the 40-man isn't full. So you keep the roster full until you need (say) 2 spots, DFA Ehire and THEN move Gardeck to the 60-day.

Nobody likes to be injured, but Gardeck will make more on the 60-day than he has in his entire pro career (including his signing bonus since he went in the 16th round); he will be earning major league minimum, over $500K, for the 2016 season. Unless he's stupid, he should move to a state with low (or no) income tax and bank that money so it is available for the next 10-15 years to round out his months. $500K is more than most Americans make in 5 years of working full time. Baseball just paid off for Gardeck.

I don't think his state of residence will make much of a difference if he's required to be in Arizona for treatment/therapy.

 

[MarcoPolo]

It is where you LIVE and/or WORK that determines where you pay taxes. Going to see the doctor is not working. He can have the operation, go 'home' for a month or three, then re-visit the doctor when needed.

And Arizona's top tax rate is 4.54%, so Arizona isn't that bad. But I don't understand why you think that he will be spending extensive time in Arizona, at least in the near future. The 'rehab' doesn't start for months after the operation, and the 'working up to baseball activities' is months after that. He has *at least* 6 months of mostly down-time, with low-impact exercises/stretches.