2016 Rotation

[filosofy29]

That is not a contenders rotation.

Can you elaborate?

 

[calsnowskier]

Or Heston waits in Sacto as the #6. Very little chance they get 1,000 innings from Bum/Zimm/Leake/Cain/Peavy anyway.

Are there any teams that get 1K innings from their top 5 pitchers?

 

[calsnowskier]

Can you elaborate?

Bum and Leake is a very good 1/2. Not elite ('10 Giants, '10 Phillies, '15 Dodgers, etc), but certainly a good enough 1/2 for a championship team.

However, Heston/Cain/Peavy are three question marks. They MAY all end up being 3+s. They may all be complete duds.

Cain looks to have a live arm that he simply needs to learn how to use. But we have no evidence that he will be a stud next year.

Peavy looks to be a very good 5 inning / 85-pitch pitcher. That sounds like a long man. And he is trending badly.

Heston has no pedigree. The numbers he put up this year (ignore the last month) were nothing short of stellar. However, he has no history to back up those numbers. He was a middling prospect at best coming up. There is no reason to believe he will be anything more than a #4 moving forward.

 

[SFGRTB]

IMO, the most likely scenario is that Heston or Peavy or Cain are this year's Vogelsong and the Giants sign 2 SPs. Here's the list

Brett Anderson
Bronson Arroyo *
Clay Buchholz *
Mark Buehrle
A.J. Burnett
Trevor Cahill *
Chris Capuano
Jhoulys Chacin
Wei-Yin Chen
Bartolo Colon
Johnny Cueto
Ross Detwiler
R.A. Dickey *
Marco Estrada
Doug Fister
Gavin Floyd
Yovani Gallardo
Jaime Garcia
Zack Greinke (opt-out)
Jeremy Guthrie *
J.A. Happ
Dan Haren
Tim Hudson
Hisashi Iwakuma
Scott Kazmir
Ian Kennedy
John Lackey
Mat Latos
Mike Leake
Colby Lewis
Tim Lincecum
Kyle Lohse
Justin Masterson
Brandon Morrow
Bud Norris
Mike Pelfrey
Rick Porcello
David Price
Jeff Samardzija
Alfredo Simon
Jerome Williams
Jordan Zimmerman

 

[SFGRTB]

That is not a contenders rotation.

I think there will be at least 1 biggish trade this year. And it might hurt.

We talked about this a few months back, about what kind of value Craw and Panik have in a trade. Or maybe you're suggesting Belt. Who ever it is, we have seen the effect of losing both Craw and Panik, and Belt has been easily the best hitter on the team since August. Plus, with the way Susac and Sanchez have looked, IDK if I'm all that comfortable moving Posey to first yet.

I know it's early to think about the trade market, but do you see any names out there worth the swap?

 

[calsnowskier]

We talked about this a few months back, about what kind of value Craw and Panik have in a trade. Or maybe you're suggesting Belt. Who ever it is, we have seen the effect of losing both Craw and Panik, and Belt has been easily the best hitter on the team since August. Plus, with the way Susac and Sanchez have looked, IDK if I'm all that comfortable moving Posey to first yet.

I know it's early to think about the trade market, but do you see any names out there worth the swap?

I have no ideas on trades. I was 100% surprised on Pagan and Cabrera. While many of us had Pence and Sanchez on our radars, No one saw Scutaro. De Aza and Byrd have been on long-term radars, but neither were really seen THIS year (Byrd was, slightly).

I am not even going to venture a guess on trade targets. I will just paint a picture of a "type"...

Young-ish (<= 27)
Team control (>= 2 years)
Projectable as a #2 or higher

This "type" will cost something that we dont want to give up. Panik, Susac +, Beede +, Duffy +...

 

[tzill]

Are there any teams that get 1K innings from their top 5 pitchers?

You make my point.

 

[tzill]

Bum and Leake is a very good 1/2. Not elite ('10 Giants, '10 Phillies, '15 Dodgers, etc), but certainly a good enough 1/2 for a championship team.

However, Heston/Cain/Peavy are three question marks. They MAY all end up being 3+s. They may all be complete duds.

Cain looks to have a live arm that he simply needs to learn how to use. But we have no evidence that he will be a stud next year.

Peavy looks to be a very good 5 inning / 85-pitch pitcher. That sounds like a long man. And he is trending badly.

Heston has no pedigree. The numbers he put up this year (ignore the last month) were nothing short of stellar. However, he has no history to back up those numbers. He was a middling prospect at best coming up. There is no reason to believe he will be anything more than a #4 moving forward.

That's a pretty fair take. So if we sign Leake and Zimm, the a rotation of: Bum/Zimm/Leake/Cain/Hesto with Peavy in place of Petit would work.

 

[calsnowskier]

That's a pretty fair take. So if we sign Leake and Zimm, the a rotation of: Bum/Zimm/Leake/Cain/Hesto with Peavy in place of Petit would work.

I think a team can exist with three 1/2s (assuming at least one is a bonafide Ace). With Heston and Cain manning the 4 and 5 with Stratton, Blackburn, Mejia, Beede, et al ready for a bust-out, I think that can work.

This is why I would prefer Leake +1. I am just not sure any of us will like the contract the +1 is going to get. It may make Zito look like a bargain. This is why I am saying we need to look at the trade market. And we have enough (healthy) depth to make a trade, understanding that it WILL hurt.

 

[tzill]

We talked about this a few months back, about what kind of value Craw and Panik have in a trade. Or maybe you're suggesting Belt. Who ever it is, we have seen the effect of losing both Craw and Panik, and Belt has been easily the best hitter on the team since August. Plus, with the way Susac and Sanchez have looked, IDK if I'm all that comfortable moving Posey to first yet.

I know it's early to think about the trade market, but do you see any names out there worth the swap?

Always keep in mind that Sac is hurt. He was just fine prior to hurting his thumb.

On July 18, when he went down: 241/411/720 3HR, 11RBI, 10BB, 35K in 110 AB.
After returning on Aug 17: 095/231/143 0HR, 3RBI, 4BB, 8K in 21 AB

Now his July 18 line might not look great to you, but if sustained over a season, he'd be a top ten catcher in the majors. Think Russell Martin for a comp. About 3.0 WAR and he's getting better.

So, feel free to be down on him, but I'm telling you he's a top ten catcher playing behind a HOF catcher. He's young, cheap, and controllable. I'd need a LOT to trade him.

Please, please don't lump him in with Hacktor.

 

[tzill]

I think a team can exist with three 1/2s (assuming at least one is a bonafide Ace). With Heston and Cain manning the 4 and 5 with Stratton, Blackburn, Mejia, Beede, et al ready for a bust-out, I think that can work.

This is why I would prefer Leake +1. I am just not sure any of us will like the contract the +1 is going to get. It may make Zito look like a bargain. This is why I am saying we need to look at the trade market. And we have enough (healthy) depth to make a trade, understanding that it WILL hurt.

I am 90%+ sure we will not be picking up a $150MM+ contract (the equivalent of a "Zito" in 2016). So that means no Greinke, no Price, no Cueto -- someone will be throwing them silly money, and that's no way to run a franchise.

That takes us to the second tier of FA SP. Restricting that list to those who are under 30:
Zimm
Gallardo
Leake
Latos
Chacin
Cahill

I think Leake is a near lock to be back. 5/110 is my guess.
Next choice would be Zimm, who would be around 5/125.

After that, I'd take Gallardo, who will probably get 5/125.

Cahill is a disaster, and Latos is a sack of douche.

That leaves Chacin, who I think is a dark horse candidate for the rotation. He's coming off injury, and was just sent down to Reno. He might be a solid pickup at 3/45 or so. Expensive flyer but maybe a big payoff?

 

[calsnowskier]

Zim will definitely get a QO. How about Gallardo? I assume yes, but I am not 100%. Are there any educated estimates of what a QO is worth this year? I think it was about 15.3 last year, wasn't it?

 

[tzill]

Zim will definitely get a QO. How about Gallardo? I assume yes, but I am not 100%. Are there any educated estimates of what a QO is worth this year? I think it was about 15.3 last year, wasn't it?

I'd assume both will get QOs. I've heard around $16MM this year.

 

[calsnowskier]

Assuming all teams finish with their same winning percentages as they have now, we would be picking #19 in the '16 draft. Before QO pick losses in '15, we were slotted at #22 but ended up at #18. I think it safe to assume that our #19 could end up being about #16 or so.

Do we want to give that up for Gallardo?

 

[SFGRTB]

Always keep in mind that Sac is hurt. He was just fine prior to hurting his thumb.

On July 18, when he went down: 241/411/720 3HR, 11RBI, 10BB, 35K in 110 AB.
After returning on Aug 17: 095/231/143 0HR, 3RBI, 4BB, 8K in 21 AB

Now his July 18 line might not look great to you, but if sustained over a season, he'd be a top ten catcher in the majors. Think Russell Martin for a comp. About 3.0 WAR and he's getting better.

So, feel free to be down on him, but I'm telling you he's a top ten catcher playing behind a HOF catcher. He's young, cheap, and controllable. I'd need a LOT to trade him.

Please, please don't lump him in with Hacktor.

That's kinda the problem. He's always hurt. He hasn't had a full healthy season (and not just minor injuries) since his sophomore year of college. Thumb, wrist, hamstring, concussions, hamate bone.

There is no question he has the talent to be a starting catcher. He is definitely superior to Sanchez, I'm not suggesting that he isn't in the slightest. I'm lumping them together because there are still serious questions about both of them. Can Susac stay on the field? Can Sanchez take a pitch? Can we rely on Susac and his backup Hector Sanchez to be an effective combo?

 

[tzill]

Assuming all teams finish with their same winning percentages as they have now, we would be picking #19 in the '16 draft. Before QO pick losses in '15, we were slotted at #22 but ended up at #18. I think it safe to assume that our #19 could end up being about #16 or so.

Do we want to give that up for Gallardo?

In a heartbeat.

 

[filosofy29]

Bum and Leake is a very good 1/2. Not elite ('10 Giants, '10 Phillies, '15 Dodgers, etc), but certainly a good enough 1/2 for a championship team.

However, Heston/Cain/Peavy are three question marks. They MAY all end up being 3+s. They may all be complete duds.

Cain looks to have a live arm that he simply needs to learn how to use. But we have no evidence that he will be a stud next year.

Peavy looks to be a very good 5 inning / 85-pitch pitcher. That sounds like a long man. And he is trending badly.

Heston has no pedigree. The numbers he put up this year (ignore the last month) were nothing short of stellar. However, he has no history to back up those numbers. He was a middling prospect at best coming up. There is no reason to believe he will be anything more than a #4 moving forward.

I respectfully disagree Cal. I think it's just not the way we're used to "contending". If the Giants offense can stay healthy, theyll be a top offense again in the NL. I think any regression in Heston (which should happen) can probably be offset by Cain improving (his fastball is back), he's just not locating his pitches. That is probably a sign of fatigue from a short/injured spring training. Peavy is a good #5. He just can't go 3 times through the lineup. Assuming we miss the playoffs, this team will get a long physical and mental break. That can work wonders.

I think we've just been so spoiled (relatively) recently with our amazing starting pitching that it's weird to think of us contending with a good offense and average pitching.

I'd love to sign Leake to 5/$100 (or whatever it takes within reason) and take a flier on somebody like Fister (assuming Righetti and Co see potential and no long term issues). I don't like Zimmerman at his age + a TJ surgery under his belt. Use that money to grab Dexter Fowler, because let's face it, Pagan WILL get injured.

Just my humble opinion.

 

[msgkings322]

I respectfully disagree Cal. I think it's just not the way we're used to "contending". If the Giants offense can stay healthy, theyll be a top offense again in the NL. I think any regression in Heston (which should happen) can probably be offset by Cain improving (his fastball is back), he's just not locating his pitches. That is probably a sign of fatigue from a short/injured spring training. Peavy is a good #5. He just can't go 3 times through the lineup. Assuming we miss the playoffs, this team will get a long physical and mental break. That can work wonders.

I think we've just been so spoiled (relatively) recently with our amazing starting pitching that it's weird to think of us contending with a good offense and average pitching.

I'd love to sign Leake to 5/$100 (or whatever it takes within reason) and take a flier on somebody like Fister (assuming Righetti and Co see potential and no long term issues). I don't like Zimmerman at his age + a TJ surgery under his belt. Use that money to grab Dexter Fowler, because let's face it, Pagan WILL get injured.

Just my humble opinion.

That's the thing, you may be right that we're now an offense first team (when healthy, a big if....injuries happen)

But if 3 in 5 has taught us anything it's PITCHING in the playoffs is what gets you there, starting and pen. It's why we were always underdogs and then won so much, everyone picks the Angels or Phillies or whomever becuse they have bats. We might get there offense first but we gotta maintain this pen and have 2 legit starters and 3 good to ok ones.

 

[filosofy29]

That's the thing, you may be right that we're now an offense first team (when healthy, a big if....injuries happen)

But if 3 in 5 has taught us anything it's PITCHING in the playoffs is what gets you there, starting and pen. It's why we were always underdogs and then won so much, everyone picks the Angels or Phillies or whomever becuse they have bats. We might get there offense first but we gotta maintain this pen and have 2 legit starters and 3 good to ok ones.

Again, respectfully disagree here. 2010 is the only one of the 3 in 5 I'd agree with that. The only constant of all three championships was an air tight Bullpen (NOT great starting pitching). The Giants starting pitching got progressively worse with each Championship. Hell, last year, our #2 and #3 could barely go more than 5 innings (except for Hudson's good outing against Washington). The Royals don't have dominant starting pitching at all. They have a great BP, great team defense and good hitting.

Obviously it would be fun to have David Price or Jordan Zimmerman as well, but I think the Giants can win without an albatross FA Ace signing. I'd rather they sign Leake and then one of Fister, Kennedy, Kazmir or Chen and have Peavy move to long relief. Grab a lights out BP arm or two, sign Dexter Fowler (or Parra if Fowler doesn't work out) and go.

All things equal though, belive me I'd rather win like 2010.

 

[LHG]

Again, respectfully disagree here. 2010 is the only one of the 3 in 5 I'd agree with that. The only constant of all three championships was an air tight Bullpen (NOT great starting pitching). The Giants starting pitching got progressively worse with each Championship. Hell, last year, our #2 and #3 could barely go more than 5 innings (except for Hudson's good outing against Washington). The Royals don't have dominant starting pitching at all. They have a great BP, great team defense and good hitting.

Obviously it would be fun to have David Price or Jordan Zimmerman as well, but I think the Giants can win without an albatross FA Ace signing. I'd rather they sign Leake and then one of Fister, Kennedy, Kazmir or Chen and have Peavy move to long relief. Grab a lights out BP arm or two, sign Dexter Fowler (or Parra if Fowler doesn't work out) and go.

All things equal though, belive me I'd rather win like 2010.

filo, why are you so high on Dexter Fowler? The dude's numbers have been produced playing half his games either at Colorado, Houston or Chicago. Prepare for a big drop in production if he makes San Francisco his home. For his career, his home/road splits are rather dramatic. He has hit .292/.389/.413 at home and .245/.339/.366 on the road. Additionally, in 112 at-bats at AT&T, he has a slash line of .179/.292/.232. I would much rather pass on him, thank you.