2015 First-Year Player Draft

[Windingmywatch]

(Romeo -- your call if you want a 'draft only' thread. If you have the time and inclination there have been some recent posts on the topic that might be moved here too.)

I have never been one to keep track of mock drafts. Actually, I think the draft is a scam. Since 2005 through 2014 TEX has drafted 481 players ... only 11 with ML time as a starter are still with the club.

2005: 0, 2006: Holland, 2007: Ranaudo, Moreland, 2008: 0, 2009: Scheppers, 2010: Tepesch, Claudio, 2011: Rua, Martinez, Klein, 2012: Kela, Gallo

Texas Rangers Amateur Draft by Position
RHP 203
LHP 79
C 34
1B 15
2B 9
3B 19
SS 30
IF 2
OF 53 (unspecified position)
CF 27
RF 8
LF 2
OF Total: 90

Total 481
282 Pitchers
199 Position*

* more RHP drafted than all position players total

If I could figure out what file extension is acceptable for Excel I would post the 2005 - 2014 workbook populated with results from those drafts from Baseball Reference.com

 

[Windingmywatch]

2015 MLB Draft: Texas Rangers take Dillon Tate in latest Keith Law mock - Lone Star Ball

 

[darrylgann]

2015 MLB Draft: Texas Rangers take Dillon Tate in latest Keith Law mock - Lone Star Ball

Glad you're doing this, Winding. Good idea. I'm hearing a lot on this LSU shortstop. And don't like the idea of Tate possibly ending up a reliever.

 

[Windingmywatch]

I am clearly not a student of the draft but was struck by how RHP heavy TEX drafts. Am going to take an afternoon and do a ten year lookback on several other teams to see what their draft to MLB success has been. What is very apparent is how many more successes come out of the international side. You just have to look at the rosters.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

I am clearly not a student of the draft but was struck by how RHP heavy TEX drafts. Am going to take an afternoon and do a ten year lookback on several other teams to see what their draft to MLB success has been. What is very apparent is how many more successes come out of the international side. You just have to look at the rosters.

Our supplemental picks have been decent but outside of that our 1st round picks have not been that great.
2014-Luis Ortiz
2013-Demeritte-probably a bust
2012-Brinson and then Wiles (Dotel) and Gallo (CJ) in supplemental draft
2011-Kevin Matthews - adios muchachos
2010-LuJac and that is still undecided along with Kelan Deglin and Jake Skole (bust)
2009-Matt Purke (most of us remember that SportsHoopla) and Schepper in Supplemental Draft for losing Milton Bradley
2008-Justin Smoak
2007-Beavan-Traded for Cliff Lee who was instrumental in us making it to our 1st WS and Julio Borbon (Carlos Lee), Neil Ramirez (Matthews Jr) and Tommy Hunter (DeRosa) in Supplemental Draft. Also Mike Main. Who?
2006-Kasey Kiker
2005-John Mayberry Jr
I will stop there.

 

[Windingmywatch]

OT -- would be the perfect thank you to LAA for Gallo to take CJ deep.

 

[darrylgann]

Our supplemental picks have been decent but outside of that our 1st round picks have not been that great.
2014-Luis Ortiz
2013-Demeritte-probably a bust
2012-Brinson and then Wiles (Dotel) and Gallo (CJ) in supplemental draft
2011-Kevin Matthews - adios muchachos
2010-LuJac and that is still undecided along with Kelan Deglin and Jake Skole (bust)
2009-Matt Purke (most of us remember that SportsHoopla) and Schepper in Supplemental Draft for losing Milton Bradley
2008-Justin Smoak
2007-Beavan-Traded for Cliff Lee who was instrumental in us making it to our 1st WS and Julio Borbon (Carlos Lee), Neil Ramirez (Matthews Jr) and Tommy Hunter (DeRosa) in Supplemental Draft. Also Mike Main. Who?
2006-Kasey Kiker
2005-John Mayberry Jr
I will stop there.

But how high were they each year, Wastin? Probably all in the twenties, I would think.

 

[darrylgann]

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 29m29 minutes ago

New Baseball America mock draft from @johnmanuelba. This would be huge for the Rangers: http://SportsHoopla.com/1Qc1Z0I

 

[WastinSomeTime]

But how high were they each year, Wastin? Probably all in the twenties, I would think.

Now you are getting technical on me. I sure those before 2010 were much lower.

 

[saddles]

This from Scott Lucas about the Rangers first round pick.

The consensus is that three shortstops -- Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman and Brendan Rodgers -- will precede Texas's pick. The Rangers could be on any of them should one or more slide through. Swanson is least likely to be on the board at #4. Understand that Texas (and virtually all organizations, money considerations aside) will draft for talent in the opening round, not need. If the Rangers had a 20-year-old Alex Rodriguez at shortstop right now, they'd probably pick Rodgers if he were available.

Since early this morning, ESPN's Keith Law and Fangraphs.com's Kiley McDaniel have changed Texas's selection from RHP Dillon Tate to OF Trenton Clark out of North Richland Hills. Law still mentions Tate as a possibility. That leaves three of the original five prognosticators who believe Texas will pick Tate. Of those, only MLB.com's Jim Callis has updated his mock since this morning.

Add a fourth to the Tate column: Sports Illustrated's David Rawnsley has changed his prediction from Bregman (his new #2).

Baseball America's John Manuel now predicts OF Daz Cameron (son of Mike) will be a Ranger instead of Rodgers (now his #3). He's joined by MLB Radio's Jim Bowden, who originally predicted OF Kyle Tucker. Jonathan Mayo maintains his earlier choice of Cameron, but he and others note that Cameron could fall all the way out of the top 30 because of his $5 million ask. Indeed, Keith Law doesn't have Cameron in his top 30, and McDaniel places him 37th with the Astros (who have the largest signing pool by far).

 

[saddles]

More from Scott Lucas.

Here's an update Jamey's summary of mock drafts from this morning plus notes I've compiled:

Dillon Tate (RHP, UC Santa Barbara)
-- MLB.com (Jim Callis)
-- Baseball Prospectus (Christopher Crawford)
-- Scout.com (Jeff Ellis)
-- Sports Illustrated (David Rawnsley)

Ranked #3 by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, and #5 by MLB.com and ESPN. He throws a fastball that touches 98, a plus slider, change and cutter. A reliever until 2015, Tate faded a bit down the stretch (although he was managed carefully), calling into question whether he can withstand the rigors of starting.

Daz Cameron (OF, Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy, Georgia)
-- Baseball America (John Manuel)
-- MLB.com (Jonathan Mayo)
-- MLB Network Radio (Jim Bowden)

Ranked #5 by Baseball America, #6 by MLB.com, #12 by ESPN and #13 by Baseball Prospectus. More polished than his father but a bit less athletic, with tools that rate average to solid overall.

Trenton Clark (OF, North Richland Hills, Texas)
-- ESPN (Keith Law)
-- FanGraphs (Kiley McDaniel)

Ranked #4 by ESPN, #10 by Baseball America, and #12 by MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. Opinions vary on his speed (55 to 70) and likelihood of sticking in CF (BA: "should remain in CF for the long term", ESPN: "may have to move to left"). Everyone likes his hit tool despite a swing multiple experts describe as unorthodox.

Brendan Rodgers (SS, Lake Mary HS, Florida)
-- MinorLeagueBall.com (John Sickels)

Ranked #1 by all four outlets. A top bat at a premium position.

Alex Bregman (SS, LSU)
-- MLB Network Radio (Jim Duquette)

Ranked #4 by all four outlets. Bregman has a lengthy track record and is considered one of the draft's safest picks. He's unexceptional defensively and may move to second, but the bat should still play well there.

 

[donaldson79]

Hope one of those pitchers who had TJ surgery will still be there, Aiken and Metuello. Though I sincerely doubt.

For whatever it's worth, SI's David Rawnsley has the Dodgers taking Matuella 24th, and the Yankees with Aiken at 30.

 

[darrylgann]

More from Scott Lucas.

Here's an update Jamey's summary of mock drafts from this morning plus notes I've compiled:

Dillon Tate (RHP, UC Santa Barbara)
-- MLB.com (Jim Callis)
-- Baseball Prospectus (Christopher Crawford)
-- Scout.com (Jeff Ellis)
-- Sports Illustrated (David Rawnsley)

Ranked #3 by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, and #5 by MLB.com and ESPN. He throws a fastball that touches 98, a plus slider, change and cutter. A reliever until 2015, Tate faded a bit down the stretch (although he was managed carefully), calling into question whether he can withstand the rigors of starting.

Daz Cameron (OF, Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy, Georgia)
-- Baseball America (John Manuel)
-- MLB.com (Jonathan Mayo)
-- MLB Network Radio (Jim Bowden)

Ranked #5 by Baseball America, #6 by MLB.com, #12 by ESPN and #13 by Baseball Prospectus. More polished than his father but a bit less athletic, with tools that rate average to solid overall.

Trenton Clark (OF, North Richland Hills, Texas)
-- ESPN (Keith Law)
-- FanGraphs (Kiley McDaniel)

Ranked #4 by ESPN, #10 by Baseball America, and #12 by MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. Opinions vary on his speed (55 to 70) and likelihood of sticking in CF (BA: "should remain in CF for the long term", ESPN: "may have to move to left"). Everyone likes his hit tool despite a swing multiple experts describe as unorthodox.

Brendan Rodgers (SS, Lake Mary HS, Florida)
-- MinorLeagueBall.com (John Sickels)

Ranked #1 by all four outlets. A top bat at a premium position.

Alex Bregman (SS, LSU)
-- MLB Network Radio (Jim Duquette)

Ranked #4 by all four outlets. Bregman has a lengthy track record and is considered one of the draft's safest picks. He's unexceptional defensively and may move to second, but the bat should still play well there.

my head is spinning. I hope there won't be a test later.

 

[Windingmywatch]

Which is why I say Skole should not even be in AA.

You mean Jake Skole -- replacement #1 pick in 2011? That Jake Skole?

my head is spinning. I hope there won't be a test later.

It is all irrelevant.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

You mean Jake Skole -- replacement #1 pick in 2011? That Jake Skole?

Yeah, that Skole.

 

[saddles]

Yeah, that Skole.

That is the same draft that yielded Skole, Deglan, Jackson, Olt, Buckel, Akins, and Robinson in the first 4 rounds. A very poor draft it seems. Olt seems by far to be the best one of those guys. Maybe Jackson can become the best one if he can develop into a quality setup man. We did get Tepesch and Claudio much later in that draft.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

Are we talking about the draft here or on the board Windingmywatch set up.

 

[Windingmywatch]

Are we talking about the draft here or on the board Windingmywatch set up.

You arer right. Exactly what i was trying to not do.

 

[Duane1952]

Are we talking about the draft here or on the board Windingmywatch set up.

I'm staying here until someone says different.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

Does it look like we will be getting us a pitcher? From Vandy?