2014 Top Prospects

[calsnowskier]

Panda isn't staying. Apparently SabeySabes will not go longer than 3 years, and the Marlins and RedSox are both reportedly ready to do whatever is needed to sign Panda, which means a 5-year deal is almost guaranteed. Good luck to Panda, if that is the case. He will be cheered when he visits.

The more I am thinking about Tomas, the more I like it (not that I ever DIDN'T like it). Even if a sever logjam is created, Carbonell is a speedy CF type and Oxy's contract is up after '15, so that blends perfectly. The only "problem" exists with Mac, but he is not a can't-miss type anyway.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Panda isn't staying. Apparently SabeySabes will not go longer than 3 years, and the Marlins and RedSox are both reportedly ready to do whatever is needed to sign Panda, which means a 5-year deal is almost guaranteed. Good luck to Panda, if that is the case. He will be cheered when he visits.

The more I am thinking about Tomas, the more I like it (not that I ever DIDN'T like it). Even if a sever logjam is created, Carbonell is a speedy CF type and Oxy's contract is up after '15, so that blends perfectly. The only "problem" exists with Mac, but he is not a can't-miss type anyway.

Likely so. So then who replaces him? Arias? Duffy? Panik?

Perhaps a seldom discussed option is to move Posey to 3B. He's got the arm, doesn't need speed, and he does have infield experience. It solves a lot of problems, and Belt doesn't have to move to the outfield. Of course, that means Susac becomes the primary catcher, but I don't have a big problem with that.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Decent article about Sandoval, maybe a bit harsh toward him, on why we should not offer a mega-contract:

obsessivegiantscompulsive

<from the article>

Value Is Not There

The fact is, Sandoval hasn't been a good hitter since 2011. His ups and downs, for whatever reasons, whether injuries, family issues, or whatever, just seem to happen and that is the package any team signing him would be getting. Teams have been stupid with their contracts, but generally they have had good reasons to be stupid. If Sandoval had hit 900 OPS in 2014 like he did in 2011, he probably could find at least one stupid team. But he didn't, having another middling season.

And 2011 was the last year he had at least 20 HR, a mark he has only done twice in his career. Teams have gotten stupid signing up players who has a lot of power, and this is his first season to beat 15 homers since 2011, so no, that's not a power hitter's profile. His 3-HR game in the World Series is looking more like Elster's 3-HR game at AT&T, an outlier, not a norm.

So there is no reason to think that he's going to get a bigger contract than what Zimmerman got with the Nats or Wright got with the Mets. They were much better and more healthier players than Sandoval plus they hit for a lot better batting line. The Giants offer was totally in line with what he had produced up to this season, and there is no reason for them to go much more above that. In fact, with how poorly he has hit this season, the 3 year, $42M contract looks like it might be overpaying now. He plays nice defense, but nothing like he did in 2011, so his value is reliant on hit hitting, which has been up and down but mostly down the past three seasons.

 

[calsnowskier]

Likely so. So then who replaces him? Arias? Duffy? Panik?

Perhaps a seldom discussed option is to move Posey to 3B. He's got the arm, doesn't need speed, and he does have infield experience. It solves a lot of problems, and Belt doesn't have to move to the outfield. Of course, that means Susac becomes the primary catcher, but I don't have a big problem with that.

????

That has been beaten to death both on talk radio and these boards. Even Boch has responded (slightly) to the topic (saying 3B is hard and Posey would need at least a year to make that transition, but it is a possibility they have discussed internally).

As for options, Arias and Duffy are probably the top internal options (with EA and Craw options if shuffling is needed), and I have heard Headley and McGehee as potential external options. Maybe even talking to Texas about Beltre, but I don't see them dealing him.

I am thinking that we will get someone none of us are thinking of now (maybe a dumpster-dive), but Duffy will be given a chance to become Bill Mueller 2.0 next season (I don't see him being a productive 3B, FTR).

 

[Mays-Fan]

????

That has been beaten to death both on talk radio and these boards. Even Boch has responded (slightly) to the topic (saying 3B is hard and Posey would need at least a year to make that transition, but it is a possibility they have discussed internally).

As for options, Arias and Duffy are probably the top internal options (with EA and Craw options if shuffling is needed), and I have heard Headley and McGehee as potential external options. Maybe even talking to Texas about Beltre, but I don't see them dealing him.

I am thinking that we will get someone none of us are thinking of now (maybe a dumpster-dive), but Duffy will be given a chance to become Bill Mueller 2.0 next season (I don't see him being a productive 3B, FTR).

Maybe it's just me, but I have a hard time believing that.

Fielding-grounders-wise, 1B and 3B are just mirror images of each other - it's just a quantity issue because there are more RHBs than LHBs.

Fielding bunts, but now we're into the noise as far as real issues on a cost-benefit basis - how much could it hurt us, really, even if he sucked at it, which he won't.

Learning all the infield plays, but c'mon. Posey has a high baseball IQ, and this is not specialized medicine.

IMHO, saying it would take a year is smoke for not tipping your hand, which I fully understand.

 

[calsnowskier]

Maybe it's just me, but I have a hard time believing that.

Fielding-grounders-wise, 1B and 3B are just mirror images of each other - it's just a quantity issue because there are more RHBs than LHBs.

Fielding bunts, but now we're into the noise as far as real issues on a cost-benefit basis - how much could it hurt us, really, even if he sucked at it, which he won't.

Learning all the infield plays, but c'mon. Posey has a high baseball IQ, and this is not specialized medicine.

IMHO, saying it would take a year is smoke for not tipping your hand, which I fully understand.

While I fully believe you have over-simplified the position, I do agree that Boch has over-stated the transition time needed. I think that Posey could be relatively well prepared with 1 semi-intensive off-season of studying / taking grounders / general infield practice. Of course, I say this from a position of complete ignorance.

If the org is unable to address the 3B hole in the off-season, there is no question that they will look at Posey as a potential solution.

 

[Mays-Fan]

While I fully believe you have over-simplified the position, I do agree that Boch has over-stated the transition time needed. I think that Posey could be relatively well prepared with 1 semi-intensive off-season of studying / taking grounders / general infield practice. Of course, I say this from a position of complete ignorance.

If the org is unable to address the 3B hole in the off-season, there is no question that they will look at Posey as a potential solution.

I bet a nickel that if making a 3B out of Posey was the plan, he could play it 25% of the time in the first quarter of the season, 50% of the time by the ASB, 75% of the time in the third quarter, and full-time for the stretch run. Something like that. Depending on Susac, et al, being able to assume the catching duties.

 

[msgkings322]

We do know this: if they've discussed it, and they want to do it, they will. If they don't, it's because they either have another plan, or Posey just doesn't want to, or whatever.

It makes sense 'on paper' but as always Sabes and Noggin know way more than we do. If they don't go with Posey I trust it's because they have a better idea. As long as it's not the idea of 'let's not spend any money fixing the problem' I'm ok with it. And perhaps if we have 3 mashers in the OF we can have a defense first 3B batting 7th or 8th.

 

[calsnowskier]

I bet a nickel that if making a 3B out of Posey was the plan, he could play it 25% of the time in the first quarter of the season, 50% of the time by the ASB, 75% of the time in the third quarter, and full-time for the stretch run. Something like that. Depending on Susac, et al, being able to assume the catching duties.

I ink that is a decent plan. However, we would have to expect almost no offensive contribution from him for the first 3/4 of the season if we do that. He would be playing essentially 3 positions when he is doing it (C, 1B, 3B), and we have seen this year that he "struggles" when just behind the plate (vs 1B).


I actually believe that Boch has been poo-pooing the discussion so far because, politically, he cant say anything else in hopes that Panda would return. Once he signs with Boston (or wherever), they will probably immediately announce plans for Posey to take a stab at the hot corner.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I ink that is a decent plan. However, we would have to expect almost no offensive contribution from him for the first 3/4 of the season if we do that. He would be playing essentially 3 positions when he is doing it (C, 1B, 3B), and we have seen this year that he "struggles" when just behind the plate (vs 1B).


I actually believe that Boch has been poo-pooing the discussion so far because, politically, he cant say anything else in hopes that Panda would return. Once he signs with Boston (or wherever), they will probably immediately announce plans for Posey to take a stab at the hot corner.

Agreed. If and once it is announced that Panda would sign elsewhere, I think we have enough other options at 1B (Belt, Duvall, Arias, FA), that Posey could focus much more on 3B. Susac is building his MLB cred with each passing game, and appears to be the real deal.

Of course, it all comes down to the revenue situation, and how much the FO can expand payroll. The pattern has been to increase by 6-8% a year, and there is every reason to expect that to continue. Essentially, we would be replacing Panda with Susac on the payroll. That should give us the flexibility to resign Peavy, and perhaps another FA pitcher or Vogey. Nothing new here.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Agreed. If and once it is announced that Panda would sign elsewhere, I think we have enough other options at 1B (Belt, Duvall, Arias, FA), that Posey could focus much more on 3B. Susac is building his MLB cred with each passing game, and appears to be the real deal.

Of course, it all comes down to the revenue situation, and how much the FO can expand payroll. The pattern has been to increase by 6-8% a year, and there is every reason to expect that to continue. Essentially, we would be replacing Panda with Susac on the payroll. That should give us the flexibility to resign Peavy, and perhaps another FA pitcher or Vogey. Nothing new here.

For 2015 payroll, in rough terms, start with 2014. BBRef has us at $166.6mm, which needs to be adjusted for Peavy. BBRef has us at $14.5 - $3.0 or $11.5 net. We only net paid Peavy $2mm, per MLBTR. So subtract $11.5 - 2.0 = 9.5 from $166.6, and we are at an adjusted $157mm for 2014. Add 7% for FO payroll expansion, about $11mm, and we are at $168mm for 2015. Nothing new here, just reasonable estimation on my part, IMO.

Per BBRef, we are at $125.1mm for 2015, prior to some needed re-signings. Morse, Romo, Guti not re-signed. Some guesswork here, obviously, but Belt at $5mm, Blanco at $4mm (didn't really want to do that, but no internal alternative emerged), Petit at $2mm, Crawford at $1.5mm. That interim subtotal is now $137.6mm. We'll need about $4mm for some young-arb, pre-arb guys (Machi, Kontos, HSan, Panik, Susac, Strickland, etc), to fill out the roster after the key FA moves are made (next para). Conservatively, say we are at $142mm. I'm not too worried about being off $1-$2mm here, because with that as a variable, the FO will adjust to do make the right moves re FAs.

So that leaves $26mm for FAs (168-142). I'm thinking $10mm for Peavy, but we might need $12mm the way he is going. If I'm the FO, Vogey gets $6mm, leaving $8-10mm for an FA OF, and I don't know right now who to target for that. If no Vogey, then that leaves Bum/Jake/Cain/Huddy/Petit as the SPs, with Timmy as the the spot starter, and about $15mm for the FA OF. I would be more comfortable not re-signing Vogey if any of our prospects were MLB-ready, but they are not, IMO.

So while we have some challenges going forward, there is good reason for optimism. Health of the vets (Cain, Pagan, Huddy, etc) is the key to 2015.

And remember, $37mm rolls off after 2015 with Scoots, Timmeh and Huddy.

Respectfully,
Captain Obvious

 

[Mays-Fan]

For 2015 payroll, in rough terms, start with 2014. BBRef has us at $166.6mm, which needs to be adjusted for Peavy. BBRef has us at $14.5 - $3.0 or $11.5 net. We only net paid Peavy $2mm, per MLBTR. So subtract $11.5 - 2.0 = 9.5 from $166.6, and we are at an adjusted $157mm for 2014. Add 7% for FO payroll expansion, about $11mm, and we are at $168mm for 2015. Nothing new here, just reasonable estimation on my part, IMO.

Per BBRef, we are at $125.1mm for 2015, prior to some needed re-signings. Morse, Romo, Guti not re-signed. Some guesswork here, obviously, but Belt at $5mm, Blanco at $4mm (didn't really want to do that, but no internal alternative emerged), Petit at $2mm, Crawford at $1.5mm. That interim subtotal is now $137.6mm. We'll need about $4mm for some young-arb, pre-arb guys (Machi, Kontos, HSan, Panik, Susac, Strickland, etc), to fill out the roster after the key FA moves are made (next para). Conservatively, say we are at $142mm. I'm not too worried about being off $1-$2mm here, because with that as a variable, the FO will adjust to do make the right moves re FAs.

So that leaves $26mm for FAs (168-142). I'm thinking $10mm for Peavy, but we might need $12mm the way he is going. If I'm the FO, Vogey gets $6mm, leaving $8-10mm for an FA OF, and I don't know right now who to target for that. If no Vogey, then that leaves Bum/Jake/Cain/Huddy/Petit as the SPs, with Timmy as the the spot starter, and about $15mm for the FA OF. I would be more comfortable not re-signing Vogey if any of our prospects were MLB-ready, but they are not, IMO.

So while we have some challenges going forward, there is good reason for optimism. Health of the vets (Cain, Pagan, Huddy, etc) is the key to 2015.

And remember, $37mm rolls off after 2015 with Scoots, Timmeh and Huddy.

Respectfully,
Captain Obvious

And tzill, please feel free to comment here AFAIC, really. This is a subject at which you do well. Peace.

 

[msgkings322]

And tzill, please feel free to comment here AFAIC, really. This is a subject at which you do well. Peace.

He's out for the year it looks like. Like Matt Cain.

 

[Mays-Fan]

He's out for the year it looks like. Like Matt Cain.

He's around. You just have to know where to look.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I forgot. For that FA OF, if I were the FO, I'd make a very hard run (and I know they are) at Yasmany Tomas, even if it meant not re-signing Vogey. I'd roll the dice for that.

With any luck, you might land all three (Jake, Vogey, and Tomas).

 

[msgkings322]

I forgot. For that FA OF, if I were the FO, I'd make a very hard run (and I know they are) at Yasmany Tomas, even if it meant not re-signing Vogey. I'd roll the dice for that.

Agreed, partly because I don't think we should bring Vogelsong back at all.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Agreed, partly because I don't think we should bring Vogelsong back at all.

It's just that without him, you are relying on:

1) All the other starters holding up, which includes issues with Cain (arm), Huddy (age and maybe arm), Peavy (mileage), and Petit (is he durable enough to last 200 IPs?), or

2) Timmeh stepping in if any of 1) fails, or

3) A prospect stepping in if 1) or 2) fails, or

4) Getting a scrap-heap guy who is a better value than Vogey

On what should be a pitching-centric team, I am not inclined to release a #4-5 guy who will have almost 200 IPs with an ERA under 4.00, even if he turns 38 next year. I think we keep him for another year until one of the prospects is ready to take his place, and if we can do that for $6mm, we should. The alternatives are just too risky, all else being equal, IMHO.

 

[calsnowskier]

Agreed, partly because I don't think we should bring Vogelsong back at all.

I am hesitant to bring Vogey back as well, but the FA SP pool is quite shallow. Peavey may be #3 on the list...

 

[msgkings322]

It's just that without him, you are relying on:

1) All the other starters holding up, which includes issues with Cain (arm), Huddy (age and maybe arm), Peavy (mileage), and Petit (is he durable enough to last 200 IPs?), or

2) Timmeh stepping in if any of 1) fails, or

3) A prospect stepping in if 1) or 2) fails, or

4) Getting a scrap-heap guy who is a better value than Vogey

On what should be a pitching-centric team, I am not inclined to release a #4-5 guy who will have almost 200 IPs with an ERA under 4.00, even if he turns 38 next year. I think we keep him for another year until one of the prospects is ready to take his place, and if we can do that for $6mm, we should. The alternatives are just too risky, all else being equal, IMHO.

Fair enough, if there's not much else out there and he'll come back on a 1 year deal, I guess it works. As always I trust Sabean to usually make the right call.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Fair enough, if there's not much else out there and he'll come back on a 1 year deal, I guess it works. As always I trust Sabean to usually make the right call.

In Sabean We Trust.

Of course, all my faith in Vogey dissolves if we have to make a choice between him, and making the winning offer for Tomas.

Now that you know what I am, all you need to do is negotiate the price.