2013 Top Prospects

[SFGRTB]

Round 2,

This year, I'll be doing top 3 position players, top 5 OF, top 10 pitchers and top 10 overall (plus a few more).

It was a rough year on the hitters of the system, we even lost one of the most promising bats to help the ML club. The system lacks any superstars, even All-Stars IMO, on the offensive side of the game, but there could be plenty of contributors which, as we all have seen, is vital to a Championship. The pitching side on the other hand is quite deep with both starter and relievers with smart drafting and international signings the past couple seasons. For instance, the San Jose pitching staff could be one of the best we've seen down there, and there have been some damn good ones recently (lead league in ERA 6 of last 8 seasons), and they could move right on to AA by July. It'll be a big year for some guys, some coming off down seasons (Susac, Brown...), some with little time left (Dominguez, Villalona...) or some coming off injuries (Surkamp, Hembree...).

First off, lets look at who's graduated or moved on:

ToJo, gone to the Phillies.
Chez3, currently backup catcher in majors.
Pill, enough time in majors to not be considered a prospect.
Culberson, traded to Rockies.

Also, lets review some claims I made about last years corps:

Sleepers, Adam Duvall and Clayton Blackburn. Well, I was spot on about Blackburn whoo, who is now potentially a top prospect in SF. Duvall had a nice year, power wise, but the defense was suspect and outside of his 30 HRs (in a hitter friendly league), his bat wasn't anything too special. There is intrigue though, right-handed pull power works at AT&T.

 

[SFGRTB]

Part 1: Hitters

Top 3 Catchers: (weak)
1: Andrew Susac
2: Jackson Williams
3: Johnny Monell

This should tell you all you need to know about the minor leagues and prospects. Last year, I (and most others) dubbed catching as our strongest asset in the minor leagues. One year later, it's one of our weakest but it wasn't for guys turning out to be busts. ToJo was traded for Hunter Pence and Hector Sanchez was one of the best backup catchers in the ML last year, while Alex Burg was moved to the outfield where he is better suited anyway. Susac is now the only blue chipper left, and while he struggled pretty badly in San Jose, there were silver linings. One, he was coming off injury before the draft and many feel he was still trying to get back up to speed and the catching position make it that much harder. Two, he had a very respectable walk-rate of 12.9% and nine homers. He should be healthy going into the season and get a lot of time in Spring Training with Boch. He'll likely start in San Jose but could be promoted by summer time. I expect him to come into this year ready for a monster season. Williams finally had some respectability with the bat, but he is a plus defender and nothing more than a backup. Monell is good with the bat, but average at best on defense.

Top 3 1st basemen: (weak)
1: Ricky Oropesa
2: Joseph Rapp
3: Angel Villalona

I will say, I overestimated this position in our system last year. I put a lot of faith in Angel, but he never made it out of the Dominican. Oropesa had a decent first year, but it was underwhelming in my opinion for a college kid in a hitter friendly league. Ben Thomas was suspended 50 games for substance abuse, but would be 4th on this list. Pill graduated and Anders is a DH. Oropesa faces a big challenge next year, he will likely go to Richmond and face the biggest jump in competition he'll see in the minors. If he survives AA, he will shoot up a lot of lists. Rapp was the Giants only 1Bmen drafted by the Giants last year, he signed early and got a lot of AB's. He will move up to Agusta.

Top 3 2nd basemen: (Death Valley)
1: Nick Noonan
2: Brock Bond
3: Ryan Jones

Well, hopefully Scutaro can stick because his reinforcements down in the farm are extremely weak. Nick Noonan finds himself back on top of a list for the first time in a few year, and he actually had a very nice 2012 campaign in Fresno. He brought his average back up to the .300, tied his career high in homers and showed a better plate approach, cutting down his K's and hitting both lefties and righties about equal. He also played a lot of SS and 3rd to go along with 2nd. He's got a better shot at being a super sub than Gillaspie IMO because of his defense. Think a left-handed Arias. Bond has one heck of an approach at the plate, but brings little else. Nothing more than depth. Jones was the Giants 13th pick last year, he's a college kid out of MSU. He just moved to second base last year, switching from 3rd which explains his dip in production his final year. He actually had a second half of his season on par with his career numbers.

****Panik switching from SS to 2nd would instantly make him number 1 on this list.

Top 3 3rd basemen: (average)
1: Adam Duvall
2: Connor Gillaspie
3: Natanael Javier

Dominguez is now a full time outfielder, so the top spot goes to Adam Duvall now. Duvall is an interesting one, we know one thing for sure, he has monster pull power and a cannon of an arm but little else. He lacks much plate awareness, won't hit for a high average, lacks any speed, little range and a wild arm. But he's got a lot of pop, and his swing is very wristy. He uses very little of his lower half and generally just muscles balls out of the park, some feel that if he incorporated his hips a bit more he could tap into even more power. He's also 24, which is old for his level. He's going to need to show a lot in AA to stop the doubters. I don't know why, but Jose Bautista keeps popping into my head when I think about Duvall. Javier is a 17 year old kid out of the Dominican, way to early to project anything but people like his profile. He has good bat speed and a simple swing from the right side and clean defense over at 3rd. As long as he stays in shape he should be able to stick at 3rd. He could easily shoot up these rankings after a season.

Top 3 Shortstops: (Panik)
1: Joe Panik
2: Ehire Adrianza
3: Kelby Tomlinson

Panik had a decent year in San Jose, he had more walks than strikeouts, hit for decent pop and his reports on defense were that he held his own. It appears as if the Giants are sticking him at SS as long as they can, but in my opinion if he is blocked by Crawford, make the switch sooner rather than later. Scutaro signing a 3 year deal gives him time though. He has 2 great mentors up the middle with Scoots and Craw, so Spring should be big for him. He's looking more and more like a left-handed Franchez. Adrianza is still on this list because of his defense, but the bat really needs to come around for his sake. He is still a wizard over there. Tomlinson is still on this list because of his speed, but there is really no one else I could identify.

Top 5 Outfielders: (high ceiling-low floor)
1: Gary Brown
2: "Mac" Williamson
3: Gustavo Cabrera scouting report
4: Francisco Peguero
5: Shawn Payne

Gary Brown tops the list for outfielders for the second year in a row, he barley survived AA, but survived non-the-less. He made a lot of in season adjustments to his swing which led to a very inconsistent season, but it seems like they finally got him settled on one that's working. He's still at worst going to be a defensive/speed replacement at the ML level with the ceiling of a Juan Pierre at this point, maybe with a bit more pop. Mac Williamson was the Giants draft pick last season out of Wake Forrest and he is envisioned as a 5-tool prospect. Here's an excerpt from his BA pre-draft scouting report: "He puts out plus-plus raw power from his 6'4", 240 lb frame. It comes with some swing-and-miss and scouts have reservations about his ability to hit, but he has toned down his strikeouts a little this season and walked at a solid rate. He plays center field for Wake Forest and runs well, but he fits best in right. He has a strong arm that would profile well there." I expect him to start in San Jose. Gustavo Cabrera is the other 16 year old Dominican that the Giants signed in April. He was rated the 5th best prospect out of there going into last season, though many scouts feel he could be the best of the bunch. Early comps are seeing a Justin Upton profile. Lets just hope that the 3rd times the charm. And finally Shawn Payne, he's been my guy the last couple years to watch out for and I think this is the season that he breaks out and gives Brown a run for his money. He's got the blazing speed, and he's a smart runner. He has decent pop and has a fantastic plate approach that allows him to draw a lot of walks. He will start in San Jose, but he could shoot up the system quick.

And here's my top 10 hitters overall:

1: Gary Brown
2: Joe Panik
3: Andrew Susac
4: Mac Williamson
5: Adam Duvall
6: Gustavo Cabrera
7: Francisco Peguero
8: Ricky Oropesa
9: Shawn Payne
10: Rodger Kieschnick

 

[calsnowskier]

Post spring-training review...

Catcher:
Susac - Had a few decent games, but I think his main benefit was just being in the locker room. With Quiroz likely opening the season is SF, and Monell having a strong spring, I would not be shocked if he goes back to SJ to start the year. However, with that rotation, I would NOT view that as a speed bump in his career. It could be viewed as a sign of trust from the org.
Monell - Call him Phoenix. He is back on the map, and may have bought himself at least an eventual cup o' Joe with some team in the future. His problem is his D. It was reportedly VERY bad.
Williams - I got into his camp last year. I think the org likes him a lot too. A team that focuses on pitching as much as the Giants do need elite defensive catchers in the org, even if they do not play in the bigs. However, I think he will eventually earn his way into at least a shuttle situation. He apparently calls a good game to along with his stellar D, and he actually had a half-way decent year with the bat in '12.

1B:
Oropesa - welcome to prospect-hood, Ricky. When was the last time a middling prospect blew up like this in a spring training for the G's? This year will be fun to see how he applies the spring lessons to his career. He apparently showed some leather at 1st, as well, so moving Belt will not be THAT much of a defensive downgrade.
Villalona - his spring was good enough to raise an eyebrow, but his real test will in his day-to-day play. I expect him to "repeat" San Jose. He and Oropesa are the only 1B on my radar right now.

2B:
Noonan - basically fell off the map in '11, but reemergence last year, and busted out this spring. He will certainly be the primary util guy by '14, but may be that guy now. Well done, kid!
Bond - had a breakout spring! Problem is that he is a scrapper with little to no raw talent. His type make great stories, but rarely have much if an impact in the majors. Eckstein is the exception, not the rule. (OT, autocorrect gave me "excretion" instead of "exception"; smart autocorrect)
Panik - officially a SS, but EVERYONE knows his future is at 2B, especially if Craw continues to improve. Richmond will be a TOUGH test for him, but I think he will do fine. He was in camp, but got his first action just the other day.

SS:
Panik - see above
Adrianza - does he still count? Defense is reportedly BETTER than Craw, but he has absolutely no bat. Could he have a future as a defensive util?

3B:
Duval - for a kid just soaking it in, I think he did good this spring.

OF:
Peguero - had a breakout spring. He may not break camp with the team, but the spotlight is absolutely on him to take ownership of LF by the end of the season.
Brown - I am not as enamored by him as I used to be, but he is still the future of our CF picture. He needs a big-ish year in Fresno, though.
Kieschnick - power, power, power. Injury injury injury. He needs to play, and he needs to STAY on the field. If he is unable to stay healthy, it doesn't matter.
Williamson - there is sooooo much buzz around this kid, that I feel a Belt replay (if not more of a blowup). I heard they are thinking of STARTING him in Richmond this year. WOW! I trust the brain trust, but that is some aggressive placement.

Baby Giants:
Chuck Jones, Gustavo Cabrera, Nathaniel Javier... Too far off to judge, but they all have tools on top of tools.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Great work calsnowskier

It is because of you I found out about Clayton Blackburn now love him. Also using your list as guys to keep an eye on in one of my fantasy baseball dynasty leagues (minor league roster)

 

[msgkings322]

San Francisco is my favorite team because they have best players. I also attend his every match. I got my all sports tickets from

Anyone else hearing this bot's posts with a Balky-style Eastern European accent?

 

[SFGRTB]

I just realized I forgot to finish this list... I'll get to that.

In any case, most of the minor league rosters were announced. here are a few highlights:

Oropesa and Susac were promoted to AA. Oropesa comes at less of a surprise I guess, since Villalona was cleared to play. But IMO, they showed an aggressive approach with Susac, they must feel he is ready.

J.C. Perez is being moved to the infield with the crowded outfield in Fresno (Brown, Peguero, Kieschnick, Dominguez, Gillaspie). Giants have a lot of faith in him though.

Mac Williamson is skipping Augusta and will go to San Jose. Guess this shouldn't come as too much of a surprise, just exciting to see him there.

Kickman and Heston are in AAA. Hopefully they can pitch well enough to give me less stress about our depth if one of our ML guys goes down.

Grizzlies announce 2013 Opening Day roster | Fresno Grizzlies News

Flying Squirrels Set Opening Day Roster | Richmond Flying Squirrels News

San Jose Giants Team Roster | San Jose Giants Roster

(Augusta not up yet)

 

[calsnowskier]

I just realized I forgot to finish this list... I'll get to that.

In any case, most of the minor league rosters were announced. here are a few highlights:

Oropesa and Susac were promoted to AA. Oropesa comes at less of a surprise I guess, since Villalona was cleared to play. But IMO, they showed an aggressive approach with Susac, they must feel he is ready.

J.C. Perez is being moved to the infield with the crowded outfield in Fresno (Brown, Peguero, Kieschnick, Dominguez, Gillaspie). Giants have a lot of faith in him though.

Mac Williamson is skipping Augusta and will go to San Jose. Guess this shouldn't come as too much of a surprise, just exciting to see him there.

Kickman and Heston are in AAA. Hopefully they can pitch well enough to give me less stress about our depth if one of our ML guys goes down.

Grizzlies announce 2013 Opening Day roster | Fresno Grizzlies News

Flying Squirrels Set Opening Day Roster | Richmond Flying Squirrels News

San Jose Giants Team Roster | San Jose Giants Roster

(Augusta not up yet)

I had heard that the assignments were announced, but could not find the rosters. Thanks for the links.

AA looks scary bad. Fresno may have the best AAA team the Giants have ever had. That team may be better than the Astros. SJ has pitching, but past anvil and Mac, the position payers leave a bit to be desired. I am excited to see what all the fuss is about Mac.

The three kiddies and RafRod are still unassigned. I expect jones and RafRod in Augusta, with Cabrera and Javier in the DR. I still have high hopes for RafRod.

 

[SFGRTB]

I had heard that the assignments were announced, but could not find the rosters. Thanks for the links.

AA looks scary bad. Fresno may have the best AAA team the Giants have ever had. That team may be better than the Astros. SJ has pitching, but past anvil and Mac, the position payers leave a bit to be desired. I am excited to see what all the fuss is about Mac.

The three kiddies and RafRod are still unassigned. I expect jones and RafRod in Augusta, with Cabrera and Javier in the DR. I still have high hopes for RafRod.

RafRod needs a lot of work, but if Villalona has time so does he. He's still 20, and in Augusta that's a fine age. But he really needs to show something this year, looking forward to it.

 

[calsnowskier]

RafRod needs a lot of work, but if Villalona has time so does he. He's still 20, and in Augusta that's a fine age. But he really needs to show something this year, looking forward to it.

I am surprised the org has already given up on Fuentes, though. He was supposed to be a real specimen. Must have had some serious personaity issues.

 

[calsnowskier]

Apparently Cabeca Jr has been shut down for arm fatigue. NOT a good sign. He was shut down last year for the same thing.

He already has 1 TJS under his belt.

 

[SFGRTB]

J.C. Perez starting at 3rd tonight in Fresno.

Blackburn opening in San Jose.

Stratton in Augusta.

 

[SFGRTB]

Here's the easier to read format of the rosters:

Fresno Grizzlies Team Roster | MiLB.com Roster | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball

Richmond Flying Squirrels Team Roster | MiLB.com Roster | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball

San Jose Giants Team Roster | MiLB.com Roster | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball

(Augusta)Augusta GreenJackets Team Roster | MiLB.com Roster | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball

 

[calsnowskier]

Will be interesting to see if JCP can handle the corner. I think the org is pretty down on Panda. They REALLY want to have another option at 3B.

 

[calsnowskier]

J.C. Perez starting at 3rd tonight in Fresno.

Blackburn opening in San Jose.

Stratton in Augusta.

Just noticed...

Blackburn over Crick?

Interesting...

 

[calsnowskier]

Here's the easier to read format of the rosters:

Fresno Grizzlies Team Roster | MiLB.com Roster | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball

Richmond Flying Squirrels Team Roster | MiLB.com Roster | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball

San Jose Giants Team Roster | MiLB.com Roster | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball

(Augusta)Augusta GreenJackets Team Roster | MiLB.com Roster | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball

Strickland was assigned to SJ. Interesting. As barron as that Richmond pitching staff is, and as stacked as the SJ staff is...

 

[SFGRTB]

Strickland was assigned to SJ. Interesting. As barron as that Richmond pitching staff is, and as stacked as the SJ staff is...

I'm really wondering how long some of these guys are sticking in San Jose, Bandilla, Blackburn, Crick, Escobar, Bucardo, Marlowe, Mejia are all either starters or former starters coming off of injury. They can't keep all these guys in San Jose while Richmond suffers. Plus Agosta and Stratton are college guys in Augusta!

Come summer, we'll see more guys in AA.

 

[SFGRTB]

Little Giants Opening Day lineup:

Kelby Thompson-SS
Shawn Payne-LF
Angel Villalona-1B
Mac Williamson-RF
Ryan Cavan-3B
Devin Harris-DH
Bobby Haney-2B
Jeff Arnold-C
Chris Lofton-CF

Clayton Blackburn-P

 

[SFGRTB]

Grizzlies Opening Day lineup:

Gary Brown-CF
Kensuke Tanka-2B
Francisco Peguero-RF
Brett Pill-1B
Rodger Kieschnick-LF
Juan Carlos Perez-3B
Cole Gillaspie-DH
Jackson Williams-C
Juan Jurica-SS

Petite-P

Facing one of the Mariners top pitching prospects Danny Hultzen. Don't be surprised by some tough results.

 

[SFGRTB]

The east coast games have been postponed due to rain.

 

[calsnowskier]

Little Giants Opening Day lineup:

Kelby Thompson-SS
Shawn Payne-LF
Angel Villalona-1B
Mac Williamson-RF
Ryan Cavan-3B
Devin Harris-DH
Bobby Haney-2B
Jeff Arnold-C
Chris Lofton-CF

Clayton Blackburn-P

Tomlinson is leading off over Payne? Interesting

Mac betting cleanup instead of AnVil? WOOOOOOOOOOOOW.

Sorry, I am getting stupid-excited about this kid.