2013 Season Wrap-Up

[MCDevils]

MC's Wrap-Up:


Since the Devils are now officially eliminated I decided to do a post-season wrap up trying to illustrate some possible issues with the team.

I’ll start this off by first investigating the offense’s performance. Defense and Goaltending will be added in over the next week or so.

I’ve specifically focused on the “Top 6” which I believe were Kovalchuk, Zubrus, Zajac, Elias, Clarkson, Henrique in no particular order.

=========================================

NOTES ABOUT THE "TOP SIX":

- At least two of those players would have been in the 7-8 spot last year when Sykora and Parise were on the team (Likely Clarkson and Zubrus)

- Zubrus played so few games this season due to significant injury that his information below has a very, very small sample size compared to the other players listed (Only 18 total games as of this writing)

- Zajac’s numbers are also difficult to read since the main point of this comparison is this season’s production compared to last season’s. Zajac missed most of last year, and even though his numbers seem steady in most areas relative to the past two seasons, his performnce this season compared to his career totals is pretty atrocious.​

With those disclaimers out of the way please see the chart below for some of the major offensive stats and how they compared on a SCF team vs a non-playoff team. After the chart I’ll have individual notes regarding each player:

Kovalchuk:

Kovy didn’t have a great season. His play in 2012 was excellent and right on par with his career numbers and he’s practically a guaranteed hall of famer already.

- His 2013 numbers took a steep fall especially in shooting % which saw a decrease of 42% compared to his career numbers and a substantial drop off from 2012’s productive campaign.
- Interestingly, his Powerplay Points per Game is very steady across the board. Not surprisingly, the Devil’s PP, fell off the map when he was injured after being fairly steady in the first half of the season. The powerplay produced at a decade best rate for the Devils over the first 20 games.
- Kovy’s Corsi was atrocious this season at -8. (Insert Corsi explanation). Kovy had an excellent Corsi last season indicating stronger puck possession and 2-way play.​

Elias:

Elias is one of the more complicated players to objectively analyze.

- First, he had a tremendous 2012. His Goal production was matching career averages, but his PTS, PPP, and S% were all well above his career numbers.
- He did decline in some categories (PTS and PPP) in 2013.
- Goals/game was almost identical from 2012 to 13
- Corsi was through the roof. So when Elias was on the ice the Devils enjoyed a huge advantage in offensive opportunities. I’ll go into depth in the conclusion section why this didn’t lead to more goals.
- S% declined from 2012 but matched his career average

Contract Expectations: Elias is hard to place. He’s getting older so a longer contract is a risk, but he’s been pretty solid the last 2 seasons. He’s been making $5M the last three seasons so expect to see an AAV of $5-6M over 2-3 years. (Note that the current contract $ amounts were signed when the cap was substantially lower. So Patrik carrying a $6M cap hit 6 years ago does not equal a $6M cap hit now.)​

Clarkson:

Here comes what I think will generate the most controversy. Clarkson had a decent year production wise, and almost all of his production was above his career averages.

- Clarkson had a really good season. He fell very slightly in most of the offensive categories. G/g, PTS/g, and PPP/g, but these drops were not really that substantial.
- His Corsi similar to Elias is through the roof, so when he’s on the ice, the Devils are getting shots. Again see the conclusion re why this didn’t lead to more goals.
- S% declined dramatically from 2012 but only slightly from his career numbers.
- Despite the slight decline which can almost certainly be attributed to the harder quality of competition he’s now playing top 6 instead of 7-8 competition, he actually had another above average year.

Contract Expectations: He’s making $3M in actual salary this season. Expect to see an AAV of $4M-$4.5M+ over a minimum of 4 years either with the Devils or in free agency. I stress that this is likely the minimum and he could easily field offers of $25M over 5 years.​

Henrique:

He had a nice season overall and did a pretty good job avoiding the deadly sophomore slump.

- His G/g went up by nearly 33% which is fantastic, hopefully that trend can continue.
- His PTS went down, which is not so good and his PPP stayed the same. I think they need to find a way to feature him more on the PP.
- Shooting percentage was very high, but he MUST SHOOT MORE. Clarkson took twice as many shots on goal this season. Corsi was also increasing slightly which is nice to see from a young player.
- Personal Observation: It seemed to me like Henrique was missing high much more this season. I remember Chico talking about how he switched to a bigger curve this year, it helped with his goal scoring and hopefully the extra ability to elevate will keep resulting in more goals.

Contract Expectations: Parise and Zajac both got middle $3M range second deals over 4 years. I’d expect the AAV to be around $2.75M to $3.5M over 3 years which will leave him still an RFA.​

Zajac:

Not so good I’m afraid.

- At the beginning of the season I was pretty convinced that his contract was worth it as I assume most of us were.
- He obviously had a pretty rough season last year, and although his numbers didn’t fall this year, they were way off his career totals.
- Devils need to get another scoring winger to play with him and Kovy or Zajac’s contract will become a nightmare. Reid Boucher, but he’s probably at least a year away and no one knows if his game will translate.
- Needs to be better in all areas. Coaches need to figure out how to get his powerplay production back to respectable levels like it when he played with Langenbrunner and Parise.
​

Zubrus:

Injury plagued season following an excellent one makes him look like a train wreck.

- I think that Zubrus plays a very, very important style of hockey, and when he’s surrounded by talented players he can help make them better. He’s always had a great shooting % but just can’t seem to take enough shots.
- His 2012 was above average in all categories, which makes his abysmal injury plagued 2013 seem even worse.
- The Devils are desperate for goal scoring and his $3.5M in cap space can let them get a potential 20G scorer from UFA, and he’s not going to approach that total most likely. He’s the only “Top 6” guy that’s negative across the board.

Contract Expectations: Hopefully Lou only keeps him if he takes a $2.5M and under contract, but even then it creates a logjam on the roster and prevents the Devils from having space to add some more scoring. Assuming Lou keeps D’Agostini and Loktionov (He should) I think Dainius is a goner.​

Conclusion:

The Devils lost a 41, 1a, whatever you want to call him and didn’t find anyone to replace him. It’s also not going to happen in UFA this season since the top tier names have been resigned. If the Devils have a top-10 pick they could spin that + one of our d-prospects plus Clarkson into a very, very substantial piece if they choose to. (IE Pitt trading Jordan Staal to Carolina for Brandon Sutter + their Top 10 pick). A similar package with Clarkson and a top prospect would fetch quite a bit more. We shall see.


Short Term Solutions via UFA:

Michael Ryder: Excellent goal scorer, which is our biggest need by far 33 y/o. 16G , 43GP
Mike Ribiero: Center, 33 y/o. Need to find a combination that works with Kovy. P/g player this season.

If you wanted to take a stab at a veteran guy those are the two best options. Unfortunately, they’re also two of the best players in UFA in general which means the Devils would have to pay.

SHOOTING %:

If you want to point a finger at a problem, here it is. The Devils CORSI this season. Shots taken vs shots against (Note: This is not shots on Goal, but includes all shots that were attempted, regardless if they were saved, scored, blocked or wide) was very much in the Devils favor. In fact, the chart shows that Elias and Clarkson were generating HUGE amounts of positive offensive opportunities for the Devils when they were on the ice. So what went wrong?

- BIG decreases across the board from the Top 6. Clarkson fell dramatically, Kovy moderate, Zubrus huge, Elias slightly. Travis continued to underperform. Henrique was the only bright spot in that regard.
- So what happened? Was it just bad luck? Different coaching philosophies? Impossible to say, hopefully these numbers have a nice rebound next season or the NJD will be where they are now.​

Shootouts:

Won’t even touch this. Needs to be better.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

Amazing, seriously, awesome job.

Seeing where we are at, I really think Zajac's play was the difference between making the playoffs and not. The Zubrus injury hurt and I've actually loved Elias' play all year. I would hope he could come at a bit more of a discount than $6 million per, but we shall see.

 

[MCDevils]

Amazing, seriously, awesome job.

Seeing where we are at, I really think Zajac's play was the difference between making the playoffs and not. The Zubrus injury hurt and I've actually loved Elias' play all year. I would hope he could come at a bit more of a discount than $6 million per, but we shall see.

Elias was 10th in scoring last year, and he's sort of in the middle of a pack of people this year, but he's still top 50, and there are a lot of expensive contracts in his general area. I would also like to see him less than $6M but I think that would take a 4 year deal. So I would rather seriously overpay. Like $7M over 2 than say go $5.5 over 4.

 

[MCDevils]

The chart really tells the whole story. Way too much red and not enough green and yellow.

 

[nj_cup]

zubrus should not be on this team after this contract is up. i know everyone says hes a big body but there are a ton of big bodies that will be cheaper and maybe a change of scenery will do them good and catch fire. his time here has been average at best imo.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

I want Zubrus back for the right price and as a 3rd liner.

 

[SJ20]

Like the charts. Good info. Well thought out. You mentioned that there are no big time UFA's to bring in so a trade would be a good option. Any thoughts on who could be a trade target?

 

[SJ20]

Understand who Zubrus is and what he does. Agree with Cup though. Go with the change of scenery. Try something different.

 

[irishwhip03]

Agreed completely with your assessment of Clarkson's upcoming contract. If the Devils offer him more then 4 mil a year for 4 years or so I think its a waste. But I think its a pretty safe bet he'll command a deal similar to 5 for 25.

If that means the end of him in Jersey Im fine with it.

 

[nj_cup]

now granted i dont follow the UFA market but really though who else of solid parise ability will become a UFA? seems that most teams are locking up their stars longer and longer. i know the oilers will have a situation on their hands as their kids get older. bobby ryan is 2 years away from ufa if he doesnt get extended.

 

[nj_cup]

I want Zubrus back for the right price and as a 3rd liner.

gionta's line should be the 3rd line.

2nd line elias/henrique/loko?

1st line kovy/zajac/?

i dont want zubrus on either of the top 2 lines and 3rd line is full.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

That's true. I'm trying to figure out where Matteau would fit in the lineup, I guess by default he gets 4th line duty.

I'd probably put Kovy/Henrique/Loki together as they all have speed and skill. Elias/Zajac and hopefully free agent goal scorer could be the 2nd line.

I still think a Devils/Edmonton trade would be really beneficial to both.

 

[nj_cup]

i agree they need d and we have d. if we win the lotto and land the top pick i really can see the devils making a deal with them so they can take seth jones

 

[nj_cup]

That's true. I'm trying to figure out where Matteau would fit in the lineup, I guess by default he gets 4th line duty.

I'd probably put Kovy/Henrique/Loki together as they all have speed and skill. Elias/Zajac and hopefully free agent goal scorer could be the 2nd line.

I still think a Devils/Edmonton trade would be really beneficial to both.

i just dont want 95% of the same team to come back next year. zubrus and clarkson would make it 100% so by default there has to be a trade or let one if not both walk. need to bring in some fresh blood. or give a spot to boucher

 

[Nasty_Magician]

Know what's funny, listening to the speculation of what various players will make, it makes me wonder what the point of this lockout was? We still have 2nd liners looking for superstar money. Did we learn nothing? Thank god they made this cba longer term or we'd be right back at it again in the near future.

 

[MCDevils]

now granted i dont follow the UFA market but really though who else of solid parise ability will become a UFA? seems that most teams are locking up their stars longer and longer. i know the oilers will have a situation on their hands as their kids get older. bobby ryan is 2 years away from ufa if he doesnt get extended.

There's no one even close to a Parise level. You had the potential of Perry, Getzlaf and Semin, but they all resigned extensions.

Michael Ryder or Mike Ribiero are the best options. Some teams will need to shed some cap hits though so who knows. Maybe a decent player could be had via trade. it's going to be a weird off season.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

There's no one even close to a Parise level. You had the potential of Perry, Getzlaf and Semin, but they all resigned extensions.

Michael Ryder or Mike Ribiero are the best options. Some teams will need to shed some cap hits though so who knows. Maybe a decent player could be had via trade. it's going to be a weird off season.

Very weird. I think there is going to be a lot of turnover throughout the league.

 

[nj_cup]

i agree with the lockout statement. what did the nhl really hope to accomplish if a guy like clarkson gets 25 million over 5 years. that is a big slap in the face. then the next round of UFA use clarkson as a stepping stone. they really need to put hard line increases in place or something. otherwise we are locking them out in another 10 years

 

[MCDevils]

Lucic was an RFA and is prob better than Clarkson, but after two Seasons of 30 then 26 goals he signed a 3 year 18M deal (His current one). Market rate.

 

[nj_cup]

thats insane