2013 Season Predictions Time!

[_so_money_]

Here's mine. The standings were particularly tough, OKC seems too low at #4 (#1 last year but Westbrook is still injured), Houston maybe too high, but maybe not, and ranking Memphis, a 56-game winner last year at #6 seems wrong too. Plus, I think if Kobe comes back he will keep the Lakers semi-competitive despite it being in their best interest to tank, and Minnesota still doesn't have very good defense. Then you have Denver, who is not a very good team on paper, but I could be underrating that crazy thin-air home court advantage. And I could be underrating Sacramento, who should be better than they have been recently. It's all up int he air really, I just feel like there are a lot of teams that could have a possible finishing range in the West of up to 4-6 positions. I feel like the Warriors

Pacific Division Standings

1. L.A. Clippers
2. Warriors
3. L.A. Lakers
4. Sacramento
5. Phoenix

Western Conference Standings

1. L.A. Clippers
2. San Antonio
3. Houston
4. Oklahoma City
5. Warriors
6. Memphis
7. Minnesota
8. New Orleans
---------------------
9. L.A. Lakers
10. Portland
11. Denver
12. Dallas
13. Sacramento
14. Utah
15. Phoenix



Warriors team stats

Record: 53–29

Offensive NBA rank (PPG): #4 (104.0)

Defensive NBA rank (PPG): #14 (99.0)

Points differential: #7 (+5.0)

Rebounding differential: #5 (+4.0)



Team leaders

Scoring (PPG): Curry (24.0)

3-point shots attempted (3PA): Curry (8.8)

3-point shots made (3PM): Curry (4.0)

Rebounds (RPG): Bogut (11.7)

Assists (APG): Curry (7.5)

Steals (SPG): Iguodala (1.9)

Blocks (BPG): Bogut (2.2)

Free-throw attempts (FTA): Curry (4.6)

Free-throws made (FTM): Curry (4.1)

Minutes (MPG): Curry (35.5)



Minutes prediction by position, plus points per player

 

[NBKLee]

Hmm

Pac Division

1) Dubs = Playoff tested, young/hungry, + addition of AI/JO/SPeights/Douglas = 50+ wins

2) Flop City = Has a load of talent, no doubt, but Cp3 isn't getting any younger, Floppy Griffin/Jordan don't have any offensive moves, Rivers needs to prove he can with without the "Big 3"

3) Sac Kings = Cousins, Cousins, Cousins. Thomas Robinson looks like a spark plug, they will be good enough to finish above Lakers/PHO. Malone will have that team playing good enough defense to beat the bottom dwellers

4) Lakers = Over / Under on how many games D'Antoini coaches this year? I put it at 10. George Karl will be coaching LA before this year is over. Take that to the bank

Kobe will be demanding a trade by the ASG, Nash will be injured after the 1st month. Gasol will be gone after this year

5) PHO = They traded for Okafor, that's all you need to know. Pencil them in for the Lottery now

1. Houston
2. Dubs
3. SAS
4. Oklahoma City
5. Clippers
6. Memphis
7. Minnesota
8. Dallas
---------------------
9. L.A. Lakers
10. Portland
11. Denver
12. Pelicans
13. Sacramento
14. Utah
15. Phoenix


D12 will get HOU the the #1 spot. Dubs finish 2nd (injuries aside). DAL will sneak into the playoffs, they won't play any defense, but will score enough to win most games.


Warriors team stats

Record: 55-27

Offensive NBA rank (PPG): #4 (104.0)

Defensive NBA rank (PPG): #10 (94.0) = Healthy Bogut + JO/AI = more steals/better overall depth.

Points differential: #3 (+10.0)

Rebounding differential: #5 (+4.0)


Team leaders

Scoring (PPG): Curry (21.0) = with better overall depth, I don't think Steph carries the load as much this year

3-point shots attempted (3PA): Curry (6.5)

3-point shots made (3PM): Curry (4.0)

Rebounds (RPG): Bogut (11.7)

Assists (APG): Curry (10.5) Better finishes at the rim will let Steph get to 10 dimes a game

Steals (SPG): Iguodala (1.9)

Blocks (BPG): Bogut (2.2)

Free-throw attempts (FTA): AI (4.3) AI is Currently the only way who gets to the rim consistently enough to get fouls called on him, Klay may get there next year, but this year AI will be that guy.

Free-throws made (FTM): AI (2.1) = Sadly he can't hit FT's to save his life.

Minutes (MPG): AI (32.5) Steph's ankle/minutes will be limited for his ankle. either AI or Klay will lead the way in minutes.


I believe the best preseason/summer League player besides (Baze) was D. Green. He worked on his game and his body. I believe he's going to crack 10+ mins a game this year. JO is going to play 60 games at best. HB is already going to miss 2 games, logically choice right now to get PT is Green.

 

[_so_money_]

If anyone wants to take a stab at breaking out minutes/points, here's the file I made to do that.

Microsoft Excel (.xlsx):
https://www.dropbox.com/s/e8txd8djho509oz/GSW%202014%20Playoff%20Rotation%20v02.xlsx.zip

Apple Numbers (.numbers):
https://www.dropbox.com/s/24idqlg5n0ymrzi/GSW%202014%20Playoff%20Rotation%20v02.numbers.zip

 

[_so_money_]

Yeah, I started out scaling back my expectations for what Curry would do in terms of minutes and scoring. But, he's in a different place now, and he's not only the face of the franchise but almost the face of the NBA this year (or one of the few at the top). There's a lot of national games this year where he's going to be tempted to show off. And while I think a few minutes fewer per game might be beneficial, he's too valuable to keep off the floor and his backups are mediocre at best (plus I think he will steamroll Jackson and get the minutes he wants). So I am still predicting a modest increase in scoring for him.

Green is interesting, I really wanted to give him more minutes, but it's just hard to see where they are going to come from. Whose minutes will they cut to accommodate him? Lee? Iguodala? Barnes? None of them. The only place I can see them coming from is from Speights, but Lee will play 32+ and I can't see Speights getting fewer than 8-10 or so. Assuming Barnes will play a few minutes at PF (which he should), there's just not many minutes left at the PF slot, and SF is even more crowded. All assuming Barnes isn't out for an extended period of time of course.

 

[Chilipepper]

LAKERS are going to be better than you think Warrior fans. I'm looking forward to the game today to see if the Warriors can compete with the LAKERS. Lakers destroyed the Clippers yesterday.

 

[_so_money_]

LAKERS are going to be better than you think Warrior fans. I'm looking forward to the game today to see if the Warriors can compete with the LAKERS. Lakers destroyed the Clippers yesterday.

Well I picked them 3rd in the division and have them as a borderline playoff team, do you really think they'll be better than that? I don't see them ending up with a better record than the Warriors or Clippers

In the West, I put them in that group with Minnesota, Portland, and New Orleans, I think they could end up anywhere in there. Do you really see them ending with a better record than San Antonio, Houston, OKC, or Memphis? They are still basically a #7 seed—at best—if you're being realistic. I'll eat my shoe if they end higher than that, barring some catastrophic injury to say Marc Gasol or something.

 

[TobyTyler]

I have the Dubs finishing 2nd in the division and 6th in the conference. If Bogut and Curry don't hold up physically though all bets are off.

 

[Chilipepper]

Should be a good game today may the best team win.

 

[NBKLee]

We forgot some fan favorites


Will there be a trade? If you read grantland at all, Bill Simmons seems to think D.Lee will get traded to free up playing time for HB at the 4. With injuries this seems less likely, but you never know.


My Darkhorse breakout player Kuzmic, seems like a raw big man, but shows glimpses of being a good pro. I believe he will have a good 2nd half and be a strong rotation player next year.

 

[_so_money_]

Ill say no to a trade and even with a setback i still think Barnes could be the breakout player, although Nedovic might surprise us and jump over Douglas. But what constitutes a "breakout" is hard to quantify.

 

[_so_money_]

Did I say Barnes? I meant Klay, obviously *cough*

 

[NBKLee]

Did I say Barnes? I meant Klay, obviously *cough*

Thing is KLay isn't even hitting rim on his shots, its the bottom of the net all night long.


Steph on the other hand isn't looking too sharp, but its going to be a long season.

 

[Chilipepper]

Damn that was a beat down. Nothing else to say. Warriors shot the lights out.

 

[NBKLee]

bump, How many prediction threads do we need?





My prediction of Kuzmic being a breakout player is another example of my basketball brilliance , lots of season to play, but Kuzmic isn't warranting the minutes at this time apparentl.

 

[NBKLee]

Clearly my prediction of 55 wins barring injuries was way off =(

Now, they do have a shot at 50 wins, if they go 10-8 the rest of the way. That's not too hard to do, if they manage to get 55 Ill be shocked and surprised.

 

[Hambombs]

Clearly my prediction of 55 wins barring injuries was way off =(

Now, they do have a shot at 50 wins, if they go 10-8 the rest of the way. That's not too hard to do, if they manage to get 55 Ill be shocked and surprised.

I had around 53-55 wins. 53 Is still possible

 

[tzill]

Clearly my prediction of 55 wins barring injuries was way off =(

Now, they do have a shot at 50 wins, if they go 10-8 the rest of the way. That's not too hard to do, if they manage to get 55 Ill be shocked and surprised.

51 or 52 wins this year. 6 seed. Clips in the first round.

 

[CitySushi]

I predicted 51 wins and a 4th place spot. This was prior to the Portland revelation and the absolute horrid records of the Eastern Conference. I think the 51 wins might be surpassed, but the 4th seed was obviously off.

Also I said I was confident the Warriors could win a 7 games series against anyone. I still stick by that assessment.