2012 ZiPS Projections

[tzill]

The projections can be found here


Projected team:

Melky 106
Franchez 86
Posey 116
CarBel 126
Panda 127
Belt 121
Huff 103
Craw 70

Bench: Nate (99), Torres (91), Pill (91), Fonty (83), Stewy (75)

Timmy 133
Cain 128
Bum 113
Song 93
Kamp 101

Pen: Romo (177), Weez (129), RamRam (117), Casilla (115), Affeldt (111), Lopez (105), Zeets (91)

League average for hitters is 100, for starters it's 96, and for relievers it's 108.

FWIW, I think Belt's projection is too high, Huff's and Franchez' are a bit low. Kamp's is encouraging, Song is understandably low. Lopez is the only below average projection among relievers, and Romo's is OUT OF THIS WORLD.

Interesting December baseball fodder...

 

[sfsportsfan]

care to dumb down this ZiPS shit for the boards less intelligent members?

 

[tzill]

care to dumb down this ZiPS shit for the boards less intelligent members?

ZiPS is one of the better known statistical projection systems and is usually quite accurate. Unlike PECOTA (which is behind Baseball Prospectus’ pay wall) and CHONE which no longer exists due to its author going to work for a team ZiPS, ZiPS is free and easily available.

I like it more than the other systems, as it tends to be more conservative with players having breakout seasons. See Vogesong, Ryan, e.g.