2 Reasons the Niners lost this game

[CalamityX11]

An improved OL changes everything.... Alex has the weapons(best ones in his career), an assumed "offensive" HC in Harbs but he was suppose to have an improved OL based on potential/progress.

Were there sacks where Alex had 5 seconds to throw? Does Alex need to call a hot read or find the blitz and correct the protection? So much to answer, so little time....

I would name 3 things/areas first before I look at Smith in terms of shares for the loss vs Dallas. Overall this season, 2 games, Alex hasn't been awful. One turnover on a miscommunication(unacceptable), and a few over throws, underthrows or too much zip passes....

But last week is the only week he got sack,6x, so let's hold off the horns for his head until he continues in a bad trend.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I completely disagree - and I think the notion that Alex Smith is much improved is a huge reach. Smith always had flashes of great quarters or halfs, a la the second half vs. the 'Hawks last year when he completed 63% at 9.44 YPA, 255 yards and 3 TDs. That half he looked better than any half he's played this year, where he was making quick decisions and throwing accurately all over the field. Eventually, however, defenses adjusted and he folded as scheduled, and I expect the same again this year.

Seems to me though is that you're suspending reality and ignoring history in trying real hard to convince yourself that Smith is improving. If it makes you sleep better at night, though, go for it.

Smith wasn't nearly as impressive on the field in that Hawks game. He dumped the ball off and the receivers made plays. This week he threw the ball consistently well, even in the second half when he had time. He had one awful drive in which he overthrew Walker and then had the INT. Other than that, he consistently threw accurately this week. I have never seen so much sustained accuracy from Smith.

It seems to me that you have forgotten just how bad Smith is. It seemed like every other ball was high last year. This year, he has one overthrow.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I must have missed the posts claiming that Smith has an all-star cast around him.

Well gosh, Sick has created threads claiming that Smith was the reason that we lost and that he had no problem with the OL. I can't agree with either of those statements.

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

If the 49ers offensive strategy is to protect Alex Smith from himself, which it does seem like it is with all the dink and dunk passing, it's a problem... but not a huge problem. The offense still scored 24 points this way. The 49ers shouldn't have to score 35+ points every week just to win... the defense needs to stop breaking down in the 2nd half.

To me, it seems like people are blaming Alex Smith for not being good enough to cover up a bad secondary. Smith is losing games for the 49ers because he can't throw 300 yards and 3 or 4 TDs to hide the team's miserable secondary. So, it's all his fault.

Well said.

 

[MW49ers5]

They are opinions that just about any objective person would agree with. What have you offered to demonstrate that Morgan, Ginn, and Williams are better? Let's look at the stat sheet:

Morgan has never put together a season like Crabtree had last year, and he's at least as likely to drop an easy ball. In Ginn's best season, he had 40 more yards than Crabtree had last year, but four fewer TDs. In fact, for his career, Ginn has as many TDs as Crabtree had last season alone, and he's not exactly a reliable receiver. Williams has two career receptions. The stats indicate fairly clearly that Crabtree is the better all-around threat.

As for ability at the position, obviously Ginn is faster, and to date this season he has looked pretty solid (though he had a drop this week). But Crabtree has the best size and catch radius of those guys. He has easily the best instincts for the position of the three guys who have played enough to show anything there. As said, I don't see how an objective person could dispute this.

Nice attribution fallacy Are you planning to run for office anytime soon?

"What have you offered to demonstrate that Morgan, Ginn, and Williams are better?"

And here we have digression, or, as I like to call it – concession. Couple of things, first, this discussion is about your claim, not mine. Second, if you think the above statement represents my position then you need to do a better job of reading my posts.

"Let's look at the stat sheet:"

"Morgan has never put together a season like Crabtree had last year, and he's at least as likely to drop an easy ball."

That is not a stat, Crimsoncrew, those are just more opinions, and, when all things are objectively and honestly considered, they are inaccurate.

"In Ginn's best season, he had 40 more yards than Crabtree had last year, but four fewer TDs. In fact, for his career, Ginn has as many TDs as Crabtree had last season alone, and he's not exactly a reliable receiver."

Looking at past statistics, the two are relatively even with the exception of TD's where Crabtree holds a strong comparative advantage. Even though Crabtree struggles with his own reliability issues, until this year I would have placed Crabtree well above Ginn.

Fast forward to this year and that advantage has diminished, to what degree is thus far unknown. Ginn has improved noticeably his reliability in the area's of route running and pass catching; and, he has always been as good or better at blocking.

Add to that, Ginn's superior speed and vision, and at this point, all Ginn has to do is demonstrate reliability equal to Crabtree (which is not asking much) and he would be a much bigger threat to opposing defenses and should displace Crabtree in the lineup.

Just for the sake of clarity, I am not saying Ginn is right now better than Crabtree, I am just saying that right now, Crabtree is not as 'clearly' better than Ginn as you are portraying. We'll see if this trend continues.

"Williams has two career receptions."

I am both impressed and intrigued by Williams. Between pre-season and now, he appears to be a reliable WR, and he is faster than Crabtree as well. He has obviously developed chemistry with Smith and, at this point, I would rather see him in the slot than Crabtree, thus choosing to play potential over predictable.

"As for ability at the position, obviously Ginn is faster, and to date this season he has looked pretty solid (though he had a drop this week)."

Couple more things, in a previous paragraph, you said, "...he's [Ginn is]not exactly a reliable receiver." And here you are saying, "...to date this season he [Ginn] has looked pretty solid." Since both statements are written in present tense and both are mutually inclusive, which is it?

As for Ginn’s drop, this year, Ginn has been targeted seven times with one drop; Morgan, six targets, zero drops; Crabtree, two targets, one drop.

"The stats indicate fairly clearly that Crabtree is the better all-around threat."

What stats you provided indicate only that you have a sense of humor and nothing more. Sorry, for the sarcasm, I am getting bored with this.

"But Crabtree has the best size and catch radius of those guys."

And this somehow means he is a better WR than other WR's who are smaller in size and have a shorter wingspan?

"He has easily the best instincts for the position."

Please explain how you are defining "best instincts for the position" and then provide some tangible evidence to support your definition; or, we can just call this another unsubstantiated opinion and leave it at that.

"As said, I don't see how an objective person could dispute this."

Sorry, Crimson. Michael Crabtree has thus far proven only that he is an average NFL wide receiver and thus not 'clearly' our second-best anything.

Based on last years statistics I would much rather target Morgan than Crabtree; and, based on this years early returns, (no pun intended) I would much rather see Ginn on the field than Crabtree. As I have said, and you have yet to disprove, Crabtree has done absolutely nothing to 'clearly' separate himself from our other WR's.

Maybe if/when he gets back on the field he will show us all the talent for which he was drafted, but as of right now, he has not. Until then keep rooting hard for the over-drafted, under-dogs.


While stats are not the be all, the right ones can offer some meaningful insights. Here's an interesting look at the QB rating numbers of the Niners quarterbacks in 2010 when targeting specific receivers.


To TE Vernon Davis
QB totals: 56 of 93, 914 yards, 7 TD, 1 INT
QB Rating: 113.8
Alex Smith: 40 of 64, 588 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT (124.0 rating)
Troy Smith: 14 of 25, 306 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (96.4)
David Carr: 2 of 4, 20 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (64.6)
Notable: Alex Smith’s rating when he didn’t target Davis: 72.6.

To RB Brian Westbrook
QB totals: 16 of 26, 150 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
QB Rating: 90.2
Alex Smith: 14 of 23, 137 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (92.1)
Troy Smith: 2 of 3, 13 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (75.7)

To TE Delanie Walker
QB totals: 29 of 45, 331, 0 TD, 0 INT
QB Rating: 86.4
Troy Smith: 15 of 22, 215 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (99.6)
Alex Smith: 14 of 23, 116 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (73.8)
Notable: Troy Smith’s completions to Walker gained an average of 14.3 yards. Alex Smith’s completions went for 8.3 yards.

To WR Josh Morgan
QB totals: 44 of 77, 698 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
QB Rating: 85.3
Alex Smith: 34 of 51, 502 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT (103.6)
Troy Smith: 9 of 23, 174 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT (48.1)
David Carr: 1 of 3, 22 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (60.4)
Notable: In the season’s last four games, Alex Smith completed 15 of the 18 passes he threw to Morgan for 286 yards and a touchdown. Quarterback rating: 137.3.

To WR Dominique Zeigler
QB totals: 9 of 15, 98 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
QB Rating: 79.3
Alex Smith: 8 of 11, 88 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (96.0)
Troy Smith: 1 of 4, 10 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (39.6)
Notable: A serious question — does Zeigler have the best hands on the team?

To RB Frank Gore
QB totals: 46 of 72, 452 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
QB Rating: 79.2
Troy Smith: 9 of 14, 111 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (88.7)
Alex Smith: 35 of 56, 316 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT (74.7)
David Carr: 2 of 2, 25 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (118.8)

To WR Michael Crabtree
QB totals: 55 of 101, 741 yards, 6 TD, 8 INT
QB Rating: 64.8
Troy Smith: 17 of 34, 317 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT (97.3)
Alex Smith: 38 of 66, 424 yards, 2 TD, 5 INT (55.4)
David Carr: 0 of 1, 0 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT (0.0)
Notable: Alex Smith’s connection with Crabtree improved considerably after an unsightly start. In the season’s first three games, Smith had a 6.6 rating when targeting Crabtree (6 of 19, 81 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT). Smith rating rose to 94.5 when he targeted Crabtree during the rest of the season (32 of 47, 343 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) … Niners quarterbacks threw 15 interceptions – eight (53 percent) when targeting Crabtree.

To WR Ted Ginn
QB totals: 12 of 34, 163 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
QB Rating: 36.8
Alex Smith: 10 of 21, 145 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT (46.8)
Troy Smith: 2 of 11, 18 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (39.6)
David Carr: 0 of 2, 0 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (0.0)

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Re: the attribution fallacy, you're right, you didn't say they are better than Crabtree. You said they are as good or better. You still haven't backed that up with anything substantive.

I took for granted that you would take the time to look at Morgan's stats. Silly me. To save you the 15 seconds, they were: 44 for 698 yards, 2 TDs, 2 fumbles, 27 first downs (60%). Crabtree's stats were: 55 for 741, 6 TDs, 0 fumbles, 40 1st downs (72%). Crabtree was the better receiver statistically in every category. Morgan had a higher YPC and slightly better YAC (they were both good in this area), but that's pretty typical of second receivers. Crabtree CLEARLY had the better statistical season last year. He presumably had more drops, but I would wager it was close. And Morgan had several lapses where he would simply fail to go for a catchable ball (the deep ball in the second Cards game comes to mind); those don't show up as drops. I wonder what statistics you're looking at when you say that you would go with Morgan based on last year's stats.

As for Ginn, his BEST season is relatively even Crabtree's SECOND season (of two). Except Crabtree had three times as many TDs. Ginn's next two seasons were statistical afterthoughts. Even this season Ginn has four receptions for 38 yards and 0 TDs with no YAC. He had some nice third-down receptions this week, but nothing remarkable for a guy who has seen seven targets. He also dropped two balls that hit him in the hands. The defender arrived with the ball on one of them, but that's the same situation as Crabtree's drop in week one.

As far as the "Ginn is looking solid" and "Ginn is not reliable," they do both use present tense. Good catch. However, reliability is based on one's history. Ginn's five seasons of questionable - generously - hands plays a role in his reliability today. The bobble in OT doesn't exactly allay my concerns in that area.

As far as going with Kyle Williams because he's "potential over predictable," that holds only if we're assuming that Crabtree as peaked. I see no reason whatsoever to make that assumption, and even if we did, Williams will have to show a hell of a lot more to leapfrog Crabtree's predictable production. I like Williams as much as anyone, but he's been injury prone, he's undersized, and again, he has two career catches. Let's not put the cart before the horse.

Once we move on from stats, we're talking about abilities. As Crabtree didn't do any testing, most of those are subjective. You mention Ginn's speed, and obviously Ginn is faster. I mention Crabtree's size. All other things being equal, a faster receiver is a better receiver. All other things being equal, a bigger receiver with a larger catch radius is a better receiver. Morgan can jump the highest, an advantage to him (though I've rarely seen him use it to make plays).

Instincts are subjective. I believe that Crabtree is better at finding the soft spot in a zone or shaking a DB than either Ginn or Morgan. He comes back to the ball better than they do. He catches with his hands better than they do. These aren't opinions, per se, but I can't prove them based on available information, either. I also believe that Crabtree is better after the catch. For all his speed and return ability, Ginn is not a great receiver after the catch. He can outrun DBs if he gets a step on them, but he's not all that shifty in the short area. I have seen Crabtree make three or four guys miss in a single play. I can't recall seeing either of the other two do that. Again, I don't have the time, the inclination, or the resources to go through every play these guys have had in their careers. Based on my observations, Crabtree has the best instincts. Feel free to disagree and try to explain why.

As for your stats at the end, that demonstrates very clearly that Smith struggled when throwing to Crabtree, especially early last season, and Troy excelled. It's the opposite for Morgan. Both guys struggled when throwing to Ginn, though he was used almost exclusively as a deep threat so that's not a surprise. A couple of the INTs thrown to Crabtree were his fault. The first INT of the year was absolutely his fault. Others occurred because he often drew the opponent's best corner and he went over the middle more often, or because Smith threw to him when he was in trouble. I argued at length this summer that Smith is not an ideal QB for Crabtree. As his accuracy has been better this year, that might change, but Smith limits Crabtree by failing to hit him in stride and refusing to throw into coverage. Making plays after the catch and in coverage were Crabtree's calling cards in college, and he wasn't able to do those things as well last year. Crabtree didn't deserve much faith early in the year, but neither did Ginn or Morgan.

It's unlikely that either of us is going to sway the other on this topic. But I would wager that if we asked 100 neutral fans to rank the four guys we're discussing here, Crabtree would be number one on over 90 ballots.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Smith wasn't nearly as impressive on the field in that Hawks game. He dumped the ball off and the receivers made plays. This week he threw the ball consistently well, even in the second half when he had time. He had one awful drive in which he overthrew Walker and then had the INT. Other than that, he consistently threw accurately this week. I have never seen so much sustained accuracy from Smith.

It seems to me that you have forgotten just how bad Smith is. It seemed like every other ball was high last year. This year, he has one overthrow.

You really need to stop using the word nearly. You don't think that Smith's best half of his career from a stats standpoint is nearly as impressive as the way he played against the Seahawks and Dallas? If I hadn't seen the game I'd think he looked like Tom Brady by the way you've been pimping him.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Well gosh, Sick has created threads claiming that Smith was the reason that we lost and that he had no problem with the OL. I can't agree with either of those statements.

Again, I must've missed all the posts claiming that we had all-star cast around Smith.

 

[deep9er]

An improved OL changes everything.... Alex has the weapons(best ones in his career), an assumed "offensive" HC in Harbs but he was suppose to have an improved OL based on potential/progress.

Were there sacks where Alex had 5 seconds to throw? Does Alex need to call a hot read or find the blitz and correct the protection? So much to answer, so little time....

I would name 3 things/areas first before I look at Smith in terms of shares for the loss vs Dallas. Overall this season, 2 games, Alex hasn't been awful. One turnover on a miscommunication(unacceptable), and a few over throws, underthrows or too much zip passes....

But last week is the only week he got sack,6x, so let's hold off the horns for his head until he continues in a bad trend.

a fair assessment.

its funny how PRIOR to the season, everyone knows how bad Alex Smith is, everyone knows our O-line needs to grow up, but once the season starts, the expectations (after two games) are...................

 

[Crimsoncrew]

You really need to stop using the word nearly. You don't think that Smith's best half of his career from a stats standpoint is nearly as impressive as the way he played against the Seahawks and Dallas? If I hadn't seen the game I'd think he looked like Tom Brady by the way you've been pimping him.

I didn't think he was particularly impressive last year against the Hawks, if that's the game you're referring to. He made some solid short throws to open receivers and they did the rest. This week, he was putting balls into tight spaces consistently. If you're referring to the 2006 Hawks game, I'd have to refresh my memory a bit, but I don't recall more than one or two really good throws in that one. As said, as a passer, I have never seen Smith look so consistently good as he did in the first half of this game, and as a passer I didn't think he tailed off all that sharply in the second half. We didn't get very many throws off, though.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Again, I must've missed all the posts claiming that we had all-star cast around Smith.

I never said those posts existed, but saying you (Sickness, not you specifically) have no problem with the OL would indicate that they played a great game. I didn't see that.

 

[EaseUrStorm]

I re-watched the second half last night. Dallas definitely changed their strategy to do cat and mouse confusion tactics. The confusion seemed to paralyze our line and Ware took advantage of any hesitation. The way they disguised everything successfully created pressure from their front 4.

They only blitzed like crazy on one or two third downs, but other than that they were mostly feigning a blitz and/or playing it straight up. One play that really stuck out (can see it on the sack video) was when both ILB's and a DB aggressively showed blitz at the LOS pre-snap. Both LB's dropped, Gore SMASHED the CB, but confusion paralyzed the left side of the line. Dallas was dictating to us with this play. Very smart defensive tactic against a new system with a new center.

The AS to DW overthrow followed by the turnover seemed to play a major role in the decision to not take points off the board. Harbaugh was justifiably worried about running it three times up the gut to burn clock only to miss a FG and lose the game, or risk putting the ball in the air when AS turnover meter is blaring like crazy. I might be in the minority but I thought it was the right call at the time with THIS offense.

I did noticed a big difference in play-calling from previous years. The Delanie Walker TD finally exposed a LB's for cheating on the run. That was on first down and we generally had good production with 1st down passes. Problem was after that we could only move backwards.

 

[deep9er]

I re-watched the second half last night. Dallas definitely changed their strategy to do cat and mouse confusion tactics. The confusion seemed to paralyze our line and Ware took advantage of any hesitation. The way they disguised everything successfully created pressure from their front 4.

They only blitzed like crazy on one or two third downs, but other than that they were mostly feigning a blitz and/or playing it straight up. One play that really stuck out (can see it on the sack video) was when both ILB's and a DB aggressively showed blitz at the LOS pre-snap. Both LB's dropped, Gore SMASHED the CB, but confusion paralyzed the left side of the line. Dallas was dictating to us with this play. Very smart defensive tactic against a new system with a new center.

The AS to DW overthrow followed by the turnover seemed to play a major role in the decision to not take points off the board. Harbaugh was justifiably worried about running it three times up the gut to burn clock only to miss a FG and lose the game, or risk putting the ball in the air when AS turnover meter is blaring like crazy. I might be in the minority but I thought it was the right call at the time with THIS offense.

I did noticed a big difference in play-calling from previous years. The Delanie Walker TD finally exposed a LB's for cheating on the run. That was on first down and we generally had good production with 1st down passes. Problem was after that we could only move backwards.

we had a short off season, installed a new scheme, and we don't have a solid O-line to begin with. so its understandable some confusion would occur, but now entering game 3 we should expect to see improvement game over game. there IS more talent on our line than there showing, so agree with Harbaugh its a "Unit" thing.

regarding the decison on the 15 yard penalty, then i'm in the minority too. after taking the field goal we still had opportunities (on offense AND defense) to win the game.

 

[h0ckeysk83r]

we had a short off season, installed a new scheme, and we don't have a solid O-line to begin with. so its understandable some confusion would occur, but now entering game 3 we should expect to see improvement game over game. there IS more talent on our line than there showing, so agree with Harbaugh its a "Unit" thing.

regarding the decison on the 15 yard penalty, then i'm in the minority too. after taking the field goal we still had opportunities (on offense AND defense) to win the game.

I am with you guys and in the minority as well. As i said before the call happened we moved on and we still couldnt move the ball and run the clock down and our D couldnt stop them from scoring. Simple as that. We are beating a dead horse with it now and moving on to Cinci!