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Series Thread: 2) Cleveland Cavaliers vs 7) Indiana Pacers

gordontrue

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I know you weren't asking me, but I'm gonna take a stab at it anyway.

1. PG13
2. John Wall
3. Gordon Hayward
4. DeMarcus Cousins
5. Hassan Whiteside
6. Eric Bledsoe
7. Avery Bradley
8. Greg Monroe
9. Derrick Favors
10. Lance Stephenson
 

TurnUpTheHeat

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I know you weren't asking me, but I'm gonna take a stab at it anyway.

1. PG13
2. John Wall
3. Gordon Hayward
4. DeMarcus Cousins
5. Hassan Whiteside
6. Eric Bledsoe
7. Avery Bradley
8. Greg Monroe
9. Derrick Favors
10. Lance Stephenson


It was really to anyone.
I tagged him because he's the one always telling us about you need to be at the top of the draft to get the best player(s).
While obviously it helps, it's no guarantee, and it never plays out as expected.

Your list is solid...:thumb:
 

WiggyRuss

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I think that is pretty damn telling

in that draft 4 players went on to becom all stars- all 4 were taken in the top 10.

just about what my analysis over a 10 year span said too--- about 35% of players taken in the top 5 go on to become all stars.
 

WiggyRuss

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It was really to anyone.
I tagged him because he's the one always telling us about you need to be at the top of the draft to get the best player(s).
While obviously it helps, it's no guarantee, and it never plays out as expected.

Your list is solid...:thumb:
of course you dont HAVE to be at the top of the draft.

You just have a MUCH BETTER PROBABILITY of getting a good player being at the top of the draft. Of course there are exceptions- Jimmy Butler-- Kawhi Leonard was 15...Giannis was 12 I believe.

but there is absolutely ZERO argument from anyone with a brain that the higher you pick, the much more likely it is to find an all star level talent.

in the top 5 it seems you find an all star talent between 30-40% of the time.

Outside of the top 10 that plummets to well under 5%.

Tony Parker is a hall of famer and went in the 2nd round right? Draymond went at the very end of the first round if i am not mistaken. etc. etc. etc.

but no one with a brain will argue that the higher you pick- the MUCH MORE LIKELY you are to get a high level player- ESPECIALLY inside the top 5.

its common sense.
 

WiggyRuss

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lets take a look- and just to soften the criteria- we will first just look at guys that have made an all star or all-nba team at least ONCE. And then just an estimate of the Grade of that player next to them- for instance- the first draft- 2001- Mehmet Okur made 1 all star team- obviously he isnt NEARLY as valuable as Pau Gasol.

2001 NBA Draft All Stars or All NBA players:

2. Tyson Chandler: B-
3. Pau Gasol: B+
10. Joe Johnson: B
19. Zach Randolph: B
25. Gerald Wallace: C+
28. Tony Parker: A-
31. Gilbert Arenas: B-
38. Mehmet Okur: C-

2002 NBA Draft All Stars or ALL NBA
1. Yao Ming: B+
9. Amare Stoudemire: B+
10. Caron Butler: C

2003 NBA Draft All Star or All NBA:
1. LeBron James: A+
3. Carmelo Anthony: A-/B+
4. Chris Bosh: A-
5. Dwyane Wade: A
6. Chris Kaman: C-
18. David West: C
29. Josh Howard: C-
47. Mo Williams: D+
51. Kyle Korver: C

2004 NBA Draft All STar or All NBA
1. Dwight Howard: A-
5. Devin Harris: C-
7. Luol Deng: C+
9. Andre Iguadala: B-
15. Al Jefferson: C
20. Jameer Nelson: C

2005 NBA Draft All Star or All NBA
1. Andrew Bogut: C+
3. Deron williams: B+
4. Chris Paul: A
10. Andrew Bynum: C+
17. Danny Granger: C+
30. David Lee: C

2006 NBA Draft All Star or All NBA
2. LaMarcus Aldridge: B
6. BRandon Roy: C+
21. Rajon Rondo: B-
24. Kyle Lowry: B
47. Paul Milsap: B

2007 NBa Draft All Star or All NBA
2. Kevin Durant: A
3. Al Horford: B
9. Joakin Noah: C+
48. Marc Gasol: B

2008 NBA Draft All Star or All NBA:
1. Derek Rose: B+
4. Russell WEstbrook: A
5. Kevin Love: B+
10. Brook Lopez: B-
17. Roy Hibbert: C+
35. Deandre Jordan: B-
45. Goran Dragic: C-

2009 NBa Draft All Star or All NBA:
1. Blake Griffin: B
3. James Harden: A-
7. Steph Curry: A-
9. DeMar Derozan: B
17. Jrue Holiday: C-
19. Jeff Teague: C

2010 NBa Draft All Star or All NBA:
1. John Wall: B+
5. DeMarcus Cousins: B
9. Gordon Heyward: B
10. Paul George: B+

2011 NBA Draft All Star or All NBA
1. Kyrie Irving: A-
9. Kemba Walker: C+
11. Klay Thompson: A-
15. Kawhi Leonard: A
30. Jimmy Butler: A-
60. Isiah Thomas: C+

2012 NBa Draft All STar or All NBA
1. Anthony Davis: A-
6. Damian Lillard: B+
9. Andre Drummond: C+
35. Draymond Green: A-
 

WiggyRuss

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Number of high level NBA players taken outside the top 10 in a draft sample from 2001 to 2012 (2013 on is prob. premature to get into at this point):

Tony Parker
Klay Thomspon
Kawhi Leonard
Jimmy Butler
Draymond Green

There are how many selections outside the top ten in a draft? 11-60 right? so thats 49 picks

49 picks x 12 drafts = 588 ---- 5 high level players taken outside the top ten out of 588 picks.

Chances of getting a HIGH level All Star player outside the top 10? 0.085%


High Level Players Taken inside the top 5:
Bron
Wade
Bosh
CP
Dwight
Durant
Westbrook
Rose (ehh-- he won an MVP had ot have him)
Love
Harden
Wall
Irving
Davis

13.......12 drafts x 5 top 5 picks in each draft= 60 selections....13 went on to become high level all stars

chances of getting a HIGH level All Star player INSIDE the top 5: 13/60= 21.66%


So--- less than a 1% chance to get a high level all star outside the top 10.

Greater than a 20% chance of getting a high level all star inside the top 5.

borderline players you could hae included in either group possibly:
Group Top 5:
Pau
Yao
Deron Williams
DeMarcus Cousins

Group Outside top 10:
Milsap
Marc Gasol
 

TurnUpTheHeat

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of course you dont HAVE to be at the top of the draft.

You just have a MUCH BETTER PROBABILITY of getting a good player being at the top of the draft. Of course there are exceptions- Jimmy Butler-- Kawhi Leonard was 15...Giannis was 12 I believe.

but there is absolutely ZERO argument from anyone with a brain that the higher you pick, the much more likely it is to find an all star level talent.

in the top 5 it seems you find an all star talent between 30-40% of the time.

Outside of the top 10 that plummets to well under 5%.

Tony Parker is a hall of famer and went in the 2nd round right? Draymond went at the very end of the first round if i am not mistaken. etc. etc. etc.

but no one with a brain will argue that the higher you pick- the MUCH MORE LIKELY you are to get a high level player- ESPECIALLY inside the top 5.

its common sense.
of course you dont HAVE to be at the top of the draft.

You just have a MUCH BETTER PROBABILITY of getting a good player being at the top of the draft. Of course there are exceptions- Jimmy Butler-- Kawhi Leonard was 15...Giannis was 12 I believe.

but there is absolutely ZERO argument from anyone with a brain that the higher you pick, the much more likely it is to find an all star level talent.

in the top 5 it seems you find an all star talent between 30-40% of the time.

Outside of the top 10 that plummets to well under 5%.

Tony Parker is a hall of famer and went in the 2nd round right? Draymond went at the very end of the first round if i am not mistaken. etc. etc. etc.

but no one with a brain will argue that the higher you pick- the MUCH MORE LIKELY you are to get a high level player- ESPECIALLY inside the top 5.

its common sense.


It is common sense, and that is why if you're a bottom feeder all season you dont win games at the end of the season, but on the other spectrum you dont tank away when you can possibly make the playoffs to get the 11th pick vs 14th or whatever.
 

WiggyRuss

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If Cavaliers play Toronto Raptors next, will LeBron James again steal Christmas?

"He just took over," Raptors coach Dwane Casey said in October, before the Cavs and Toronto met in the preseason. "He took it to another level. Just mentally, physically, defensively, offensively, he wasn't going to let them lose so that's why I'm saying he can have an imprint on the game in whatever way that night calls for. And some nights it's going to be his defense, some nights it's going to be his passing, some nights it's going to be his 3-point shooting.

"We were banking on (him missing 3s) and lights out. He canceled Christmas. ... One of these days. One of these days."




lol....LeBron cancelling Christmas.
 

WiggyRuss

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