#1 Seeds are locked

[ericd7633]

UVA
Villanova
Kansas
Xavier

I think UNC just locked up a #2 seed as well, along with Duke. If Tennessee and Cincy win out, I think they'll be on the 2 line with them. Which could lead to their being 3 B1G teams on the 3 line(Purdue, MSU, Michigan). Purdue has the best case to being a #2 seed if Tennessee and Cincy don't win out, IMO.

 

[broncosmitty]

Kansas?

 

[bksballer89]

Yep

 

[jontaejones]

UVA
Villanova
Kansas
Xavier

I think UNC just locked up a #2 seed as well, along with Duke. If Tennessee and Cincy win out, I think they'll be on the 2 line with them. Which could lead to their being 3 B1G teams on the 3 line(Purdue, MSU, Michigan). Purdue has the best case to being a #2 seed if Tennessee and Cincy don't win out, IMO.

If UNC can beat UVA tmrw, then I wonder if they become strongest 2 and replace Duke in the East.

I also think Xavier gets shipped to the West now. I think they should put the strongest 2 in Xavier's region. They are clearly (at least metrically) the weakest 1.

 

[rtfgbfan]

Xavier as a 1 seed I'm not sure. Lost at home to Villanova then lost to a mediocre Providence team in the conference tourney. Maybe, but I'm thinking if Carolina beats Virginia they may steal that 1.

 

[jontaejones]

Xavier as a 1 seed I'm not sure. Lost at home to Villanova then lost to a mediocre Providence team in the conference tourney. Maybe, but I'm thinking if Carolina beats Virginia they may steal that 1.

They were already a #1 seed when the committee revealed its picks last month. And nobody has really done anything to overtake them.

 

[rtfgbfan]

They were already a #1 seed when the committee revealed its picks last month. And nobody has really done anything to overtake them.

You don't think there's a chance for UNC if they beat Virginia tomorrow? That's a pretty good end to their pre-dance season IMO. Controlling Duke wire to wire then beating maybe the best team in the country.

 

[ericd7633]

Kansas?

Since the committee revealed their top 16, Kansas who was the 6th overall seed, is 7-1 with wins over WVU, Texas Tech, OU, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, which would be 6 Q1/Q2 wins. And their lone loss was a Q2 loss.

Purdue, who was the 4th overall seed has gone 5-2 with wins over Penn State(x2), Illinois, Minnesota and Rutgers, with losses to Wisconsin and Michigan. They only added one Q2 win. And have just a 1-2 record against Q2 competition in that time frame. And added no Q1 wins. Kansas has 11 Q1 wins, Purdue has 6.

Auburn was the 5th overall seed, they've gone 3-4 since, so not much discussion is needed there.

Duke was the 7th overall seed, and they've gone 7-2, so at worst, Kansas will finish with the same record since the reveal. Duke only has 6 Q1 wins. I'm not sure how they'll jump Kansas?

Cincy was the 8th overall seed, and they've gone 6-2 since the reveal. But only picked up 1 Q1/Q2 win in that time frame. They can add another if they win the AAC Tournament but simply being 2-2 against Q1/Q2 isn't going to have them leap Kansas.

Clemson and Texas Tech aren't worth discussing. Michigan State has a gaudy record, but nothing of substance. They don't even have as many combined Q1/Q2 wins as Kansas does Q1 wins alone. Plus they played a horrific OOC schedule.

UNC was the 12th overall seed, and has gone 6-2, so best case scenario is they finish with the same record as Kansas since the reveal. They do have the most Q1 wins in the country, but they also have 9 losses(including Wofford), even with a win today, that wouldn't be enough to jump Kansas. They are very similar to Duke last year who was given a #2 seed and was the 7th overall seed. I can see something similar. Perhaps 6th overall seed.

If UNC gets a 1 it'll be over Xavier, not Kansas, but I don't see that happening.

 

[jontaejones]

You don't think there's a chance for UNC if they beat Virginia tomorrow? That's a pretty good end to their pre-dance season IMO. Controlling Duke wire to wire then beating maybe the best team in the country.

They probably have too many losses. But they're in the discussion if they beat UVA today.

 

[ericd7633]

Xavier as a 1 seed I'm not sure. Lost at home to Villanova then lost to a mediocre Providence team in the conference tourney. Maybe, but I'm thinking if Carolina beats Virginia they may steal that 1.

I honestly think that Wofford loss is going to hurt UNC's seed, in this case keep them off the 1 line. The committee chair has been open about how they are going to reward teams for winning games they are supposed to win. Xavier has done that, with no Q3/Q4 losses, as well as having 15 Q1/Q2 wins. Also, if you're going to call Providence mediocre, the same should apply to UNC losing to Miami. Losing to a team like Miami at home is probably a worse loss than losing to Providence on a neutral, at least according to the quadrant system.

 

[ericd7633]

They probably have too many losses. But they're in the discussion if they beat UVA today.

Really depends just how much emphasis the committee puts on Q1/Q2 wins. UNC has a lot more Q1 wins than Xavier does, but when combining Q1/Q2 wins UNC, with a win will have 17 and Xavier has finished with 15. So they'll have 2 more combined Q1/Q2 wins. UNC will be the most fascinating case, especially if they win. I really think the Wofford loss could keep them off the 1 line, assuming they would win tonight. I don't think there's ever been a 9 loss #1 seed.

 

[jontaejones]

Really depends just how much emphasis the committee puts on Q1/Q2 wins. UNC has a lot more Q1 wins than Xavier does, but when combining Q1/Q2 wins UNC, with a win will have 17 and Xavier has finished with 15. So they'll have 2 more combined Q1/Q2 wins. UNC will be the most fascinating case, especially if they win. I really think the Wofford loss could keep them off the 1 line, assuming they would win tonight. I don't think there's ever been a 9 loss #1 seed.

My guess is that the committee will go with Xavier, win or lose by Carolina.

They typically reward the teams that win the conference regular season over teams that show well in the conference tourney and X won the Big East.

UNC is the better team, but that doesn't matter.

I just hope Duke is out of the East...

 

[broncosmitty]

Since the committee revealed their top 16, Kansas who was the 6th overall seed, is 7-1 with wins over WVU, Texas Tech, OU, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, which would be 6 Q1/Q2 wins. And their lone loss was a Q2 loss.

Purdue, who was the 4th overall seed has gone 5-2 with wins over Penn State(x2), Illinois, Minnesota and Rutgers, with losses to Wisconsin and Michigan. They only added one Q2 win. And have just a 1-2 record against Q2 competition in that time frame. And added no Q1 wins. Kansas has 11 Q1 wins, Purdue has 6.

Auburn was the 5th overall seed, they've gone 3-4 since, so not much discussion is needed there.

Duke was the 7th overall seed, and they've gone 7-2, so at worst, Kansas will finish with the same record since the reveal. Duke only has 6 Q1 wins. I'm not sure how they'll jump Kansas?

Cincy was the 8th overall seed, and they've gone 6-2 since the reveal. But only picked up 1 Q1/Q2 win in that time frame. They can add another if they win the AAC Tournament but simply being 2-2 against Q1/Q2 isn't going to have them leap Kansas.

Clemson and Texas Tech aren't worth discussing. Michigan State has a gaudy record, but nothing of substance. They don't even have as many combined Q1/Q2 wins as Kansas does Q1 wins alone. Plus they played a horrific OOC schedule.

UNC was the 12th overall seed, and has gone 6-2, so best case scenario is they finish with the same record as Kansas since the reveal. They do have the most Q1 wins in the country, but they also have 9 losses(including Wofford), even with a win today, that wouldn't be enough to jump Kansas. They are very similar to Duke last year who was given a #2 seed and was the 7th overall seed. I can see something similar. Perhaps 6th overall seed.

If UNC gets a 1 it'll be over Xavier, not Kansas, but I don't see that happening.

I've been assuming 3 seed for Sparty.

Since they've beaten nobody but Purdue.

Kansas I guess I'd just assumed 2 seed at best all year.

It's about 15-20 schools at the top to me. With no clear favorite.

 

[rtfgbfan]

I honestly think that Wofford loss is going to hurt UNC's seed, in this case keep them off the 1 line. The committee chair has been open about how they are going to reward teams for winning games they are supposed to win. Xavier has done that, with no Q3/Q4 losses, as well as having 15 Q1/Q2 wins. Also, if you're going to call Providence mediocre, the same should apply to UNC losing to Miami. Losing to a team like Miami at home is probably a worse loss than losing to Providence on a neutral, at least according to the quadrant system.

Yeah good call on the Miami loss. My point was just that if UNC is getting hot this late and beats 2 top 5 teams to win the conference tourney as a 6 seed it could sway the committee.

 

[bksballer89]

Yeah good call on the Miami loss. My point was just that if UNC is getting hot this late and beats 2 top 5 teams to win the conference tourney as a 6 seed it could sway the committee.

Lunardi said they're a 1 with a win tonight

 

[rtfgbfan]

Lunardi said they're a 1 with a win tonight

It just makes sense to me. Will be interesting to see if they can finish it off.

 

[Edonidd]

They need to refocus what they look at for next year and going forward, IMO. Watching all the bracket talk and everyone seems to agree that 29-4 Michigan State is at best a #3 seed. Meanwhile North Carolina at 25-10 is at least a 2 seed and still alive for a #1 seed. Just looking at the records, that should be ridiculous enough, but MSU also handled UNC pretty easily on a neutral court earlier this year.

It just needs to be looked at. They're relying too much on computer metrics and not enough on people. Football got screwy when they started doing that for a couple years too.

 

[ericd7633]

They need to refocus what they look at for next year and going forward, IMO. Watching all the bracket talk and everyone seems to agree that 29-4 Michigan State is at best a #3 seed. Meanwhile North Carolina at 25-10 is at least a 2 seed and still alive for a #1 seed. Just looking at the records, that should be ridiculous enough, but MSU also handled UNC pretty easily on a neutral court earlier this year.

It just needs to be looked at. They're relying too much on computer metrics and not enough on people. Football got screwy when they started doing that for a couple years too.

One game doesn't make a resume.

The problem for Michigan State...their SOS is sandwiched between Toledo and UMKC. Also, I think Michigan State is good, probably even a great team, but they've only beaten 2 sure fire NCAA tournament teams, which is tough to do, playing in the B1G(which was awful this year) and playing 33 games. Michigan State played 22 games against teams not even good enough to make the NIT(if it stops there).

 

[Edonidd]

One game doesn't make a resume.

The problem for Michigan State...their SOS is sandwiched between Toledo and UMKC. Also, I think Michigan State is good, probably even a great team, but they've only beaten 2 sure fire NCAA tournament teams, which is tough to do, playing in the B1G(which was awful this year) and playing 33 games. Michigan State played 22 games against teams not even good enough to make the NIT(if it stops there).

I know all the arguments. I'm saying they're dumb arguments. And I mostly think the rules need to be changed to help other teams. The Big10 will probably never be this weak again in my lifetime. If it ever is, I doubt the conference schedule will ever match up to exacerbate the problem. And MSU is both talented enough, and underperforming enough that seeds really don't matter to us that much. But the way they are taking common sense out of the equation hurts mid majors, hurts the tournament, and hurts basketball.

 

[ericd7633]

I know all the arguments. I'm saying they're dumb arguments. And I mostly think the rules need to be changed to help other teams. The Big10 will probably never be this weak again in my lifetime. If it ever is, I doubt the conference schedule will ever match up to exacerbate the problem. And MSU is both talented enough, and underperforming enough that seeds really don't matter to us that much. But the way they are taking common sense out of the equation hurts mid majors, hurts the tournament, and hurts basketball.

How are they taking common sense out of the equation? Do you think Michigan State would only have 4 losses if they played a schedule like North Carolina's? Probably not, based on how they performed against tournament caliber teams. North Carolina played 24 games against Q1/Q2 teams, Michigan State played 12.