Adrian Peterson watch

[Chef99]

Interesting. .what a mess.

I found it intriguing that during halftime if the Monday night game they had some dude quoting a statement from the NFL, saying they hadn't received the materials that they had requested yet. Funny, they also said they never received the servings Ray Rice video and are still sticking to that story even though there's over wheeling evidence that says they did.
Again. . What a mess

I still think he's reinstated this week. This is crazy and I could be SO wrong about this, but I think there's a real chance the Vikes cut him. If that's the case, that Raiders thing might come true.

Again, I know this is crazy and laughable and probably ridiculous...but I can't get it out of my head. Money, team rebuilding/chemistry and the fact that he won't be a Viking next year really are things to think about.

In. My. Opinion. :rollseyes:

 

[TREFF]

Well him being in the Raiders would make him much less attractive fantasy wise. MJD and DMC didn't magically forget how to run this season. . My men in black just simply suck, at everything, but most assuredly in run blocking.

 

[HammerDown]

 

[wilwhite]

What's lame is that this hearing is only whether he should be off the exempt list (which he should obviously be). So the league could in theory hold off until Saturday the 22nd and take him of the list then - obviously if AP can only join the team on Saturday he may not play Week 12 since he wouldn't have practiced. Then the league can hand down some suspension, or not, and the Vikes can cut him, or not.

 

[wildturkey]

What's with the wait? From what's been presented through reporting on the legalities of the CBA, this is a simple "yes, he's reinstated" followed by "if we're going to punish him" thing. Goodell's NFL is fucking awful. This shit should have already been lined up and ready to go as soon as the courts were done.

 

[wilwhite]

I think no matter what happens next Monday AP has a case that he should have been with the Vikings already, after his legal case is resolved and while the league is determining discipline. The trick is that he's being paid anyway, so it's not clear what damages he could claim.

Goodell still hasn't figured out that you can't just make up rules as you go along. He should have spent a few years as fantasy football commish.

 

[TREFF]

I think no matter what happens next Monday AP has a case that he should have been with the Vikings already, after his legal case is resolved and while the league is determining discipline. The trick is that he's being paid anyway, so it's not clear what damages he could claim.

Goodell still hasn't figured out that you can't just make up rules as you go along. He should have spent a few years as fantasy football commish.

I'm Not playing in that one

 

[wilwhite]

So this is what I've been thinking today...

1) Vikings ownership probably doesn't want AP back.

He's not a great value next season with his contract, regardless of baggage. This season if they bring him back and don't make the playoffs they take a PR hit for nothing. If they do make the playoffs with him, or even win the Super Bowl, it might actually make things worse both for the team and the league because AP whipping a four-year-old will be back to being a huge topic. Fair or not, it will become a juicy example of compromising principles for the sake of victory, and social media memes will be all over the place.

Regardless of what the coaches think, this is a bigger financial issue. I expect Vikings ownership is trying to get straight answers from sponsors about what they'll do, but the sponsors will of course react to public opinion, so they can't give a definitive answer. Unless the Vikings want to invest in a campaign for AP getting a second chance and think they can pull it off, the cost/benefit analysis there says let him go.


2) The Vikings don't want AP to help another team edge them out of the playoffs.

Because of his contract, teams that are out of it this season probably won't have much interest in him. The teams that might consider him will be ones with a chance at the playoffs. The Giants have an outside shot at 3-6, but they have to catch either the 6-3 Packers or one of the 7-win teams in their division. Tough.

Carolina, though... at 3-6-1 they're only a game behind the Saints for the division lead, and they play them Week 14. They need help at RB, and play in the south where there may be a more sympathetic fan base for AP. Very logical destination. Also only a game behind the Vikings.

The Panthers host the Vikings in Week 13. It could be a decisive week for both teams. The Vikings don't want to see AP there... unless maybe an out-of-shape AP who hasn't had time to practice.


3) The league would love to keep AP out of the spotlight.

And that may outweigh in their minds the legal consequences of screwing with AP's ability to get back on the field, which they can deal with later and most people will find boring so the PR effect will be minimal.


4) The NFLPA is pushing the AP issue for the sake of the union, not necessarily for AP.

So while they want to use this case as further leverage, how hard they push may depend on other concessions (say, a neutral discipline arbitrator amendment to the CBA).


So...
I think the league and the Vikings drag this out as long as possible. The fewer weeks left in the season, the less likely it will be for AP to find a team, which would make the league and the Vikings happy. If they can't drag the current process out long enough, the league can suspend him, or the Vikes can suspend him a week or two and then cut him so he can't face them Week 13. (Remember there's still the insane possibility that the arbitrator decides AP will stay on the exempt list.)

If the Vikings lose these next two games they will probably throw in the towel, not caring if the league reinstates him without suspension, and cut him right off the bat.


So I think it's about an even chance he ends the season not playing anywhere because things drag out too long. But if he does play I think the most likely place is Carolina starting Week 13 or 14, followed by staying in Minnesota and starting as of Week 13 to help them beat the Panthers, and a slim chance the Giants give it a whirl or he goes unclaimed and becomes a UFA.

Only if he stays with the Vikings is there much chance of him playing Week 12. Even then, it's dicey: he could be reinstated anywhere from Tuesday to Saturday, and he'd still have to travel to Minnesota. If he doesn't get in a full practice they can't really play him.

(Man, I just wasted a bunch of time on this.)

 

[TREFF]

(Man, I just wasted a bunch of time on this.)

But it was a good read

I'm not so sure about who would win the whole PR thing.

Ray Rice, even with the video evidence and all the outrage surrounding his situation, is already beginning to gain support as a victim in some certain circles.

AP is gaining ground in that aspect as well. The big bad corporate machine just may fall into the role of the bad guy again. For better or worse the public at large is a forgiving entity, especially when they have a new enemy to aim their venom at. The law is square with him, the mother has forgiven and said he should be allowed back (even though we know her support checks depend on AP maintaining his ability to generate income and thus she needs him playing and maintaining his value), and they'll pay all his charitable work, especially that which is towards children, front and center, anything to make the NFL appear to be the corporate monster holding the common man.

 

[Chef99]

It was a good read. Just one thing to add - AP's contract is non-guaranteed. The Vikings can cut him and not owe a penny. If they keep him, his contract accounts for around 11 percent of the salary cap. I know there's no way he'll be back next year, but this is just more incentive for them to cut ties sooner rather than later.

Either way, I'd just like to see it be done with.

 

[TREFF]

Hearing officially scheduled for the 17th, devising must be made within five days. . Which would be one day before the Vikes week 12 game.

Highly doubt it, but, anywhere from Monday evening to Friday well all finally know what the next step will be.

One thing that bugs me.. what exactly happens if the NFL "misses" the 5 day deadline? Surely they won't, but is he automatically reinstated? Still in limbo? Just sounds like a classic "or else" ultimatum. Or else what?

 

[wilwhite]

Or else what?

Well, it would be breach of contract with the NFLPA, which might start an ugly little war, like the NFLPA advising their players that since the league is in breach of contract they have no obligations to speak to the media or something.

If I were AP, I'd have already just shown up at the Vikes facilities for practice once I had my plea deal. On the other hand, if I were AP I wouldn't have beaten my four-year-old with a switch. On the third hand, if I were AP I'd probably have a YPC of -1.

 

[Chef99]

Peter King on the Dan Patrick Show this morning thinks that a reasonable expectation for the outcome is a 1 or 2 game suspension. He also thinks that, aside from wild card Jerry Jones, AP will be back with the Vikings next season.

 

[wilwhite]

Peter King on the Dan Patrick Show this morning thinks that a reasonable expectation for the outcome is a 1 or 2 game suspension.

Which squares with absolutely nothing (except Goodell's policy-disregarding discipline whimsy - so yes, that would make it a reasonable expectation).

 

[wilwhite]

So there was a disciplinary hearing yesterday for AP... but he decided not to go.

This is interesting. Obviously he didn't want to help the league overlap his exempt-list limbo and an actual suspension, but rather force them to let him play while the discipline process plays out.

Given the Ray Rice wrongful termination suit against the Ravens (not to mention the prospect of somebody like Carolina picking him up), the Vikings may not want to release AP. But they also probably don't want him to play for them.

NFLPA spokesman:

The League office seems more focused on creating an arbitrary disciplinary process for Adrian instead of honoring a signed agreement to remove him from the Commissioner’s list. They are simply making stuff up as they go along. They should commit their efforts to meeting us at the table to collectively bargain a new personal conduct policy.

So NFLPA sees AP as a wedge to force a revision of the policy, but I suspect if they get what they want they'll let the rest of AP's season dribble away without a fight. Therefore the NFL has to decide between this shield-staining circus continuing and negotiating a less ridiculous policy. (Recent history suggests you should bet on the league choosing the circus.)

My guess is that AP will be removed from the list next week. The question is whether the league will: a) let him play, b) drop an immediate suspension on him and watch the NFLPA go ballistic, or c) drop an immediate suspension on him but draw up a back room agreement with the NFLPA.

I bet they try C but the PA will try to get more than the league will give, and they'll go with A to drop the problem in the Vikings lap, and Goodell will have a different job next year.

 

[TREFF]

So there was a disciplinary hearing yesterday for AP... but he decided not to go.

This is interesting. Obviously he didn't want to help the league overlap his exempt-list limbo and an actual suspension, but rather force them to let him play while the discipline process plays out.

Given the Ray Rice wrongful termination suit against the Ravens (not to mention the prospect of somebody like Carolina picking him up), the Vikings may not want to release AP. But they also probably don't want him to play for them.

NFLPA spokesman:



So NFLPA sees AP as a wedge to force a revision of the policy, but I suspect if they get what they want they'll let the rest of AP's season dribble away without a fight. Therefore the NFL has to decide between this shield-staining circus continuing and negotiating a less ridiculous policy. (Recent history suggests you should bet on the league choosing the circus.)

My guess is that AP will be removed from the list next week. The question is whether the league will: a) let him play, b) drop an immediate suspension on him and watch the NFLPA go ballistic, or c) drop an immediate suspension on him but draw up a back room agreement with the NFLPA.

I bet they try C but the PA will try to get more than the league will give, and they'll go with A to drop the problem in the Vikings lap, and Goodell will have a different job next year.

Yeah just read that too.. was about my same feelings also.

I think regardless of the A, B, or C, Goodall is not the commish next year

 

[HaroldSeattle]

So there was a disciplinary hearing yesterday for AP... but he decided not to go.

This is interesting. Obviously he didn't want to help the league overlap his exempt-list limbo and an actual suspension, but rather force them to let him play while the discipline process plays out.

Given the Ray Rice wrongful termination suit against the Ravens (not to mention the prospect of somebody like Carolina picking him up), the Vikings may not want to release AP. But they also probably don't want him to play for them.

NFLPA spokesman:



So NFLPA sees AP as a wedge to force a revision of the policy, but I suspect if they get what they want they'll let the rest of AP's season dribble away without a fight. Therefore the NFL has to decide between this shield-staining circus continuing and negotiating a less ridiculous policy. (Recent history suggests you should bet on the league choosing the circus.)

My guess is that AP will be removed from the list next week. The question is whether the league will: a) let him play, b) drop an immediate suspension on him and watch the NFLPA go ballistic, or c) drop an immediate suspension on him but draw up a back room agreement with the NFLPA.

I bet they try C but the PA will try to get more than the league will give, and they'll go with A to drop the problem in the Vikings lap, and Goodell will have a different job next year.

Good post, lots of interesting points. However as much as I would love seeing Goodell in a different job next year, I just don't see it happening. $ is the bottom line for the owners and Goodell has delivered $ so I expect his job is safe for now.

 

[Chef99]

Wow...what a crazy season. Gonna be some good books written about this.

 

[wilwhite]

By the way, the league had the hearing anyway (no AP, no NFLPA), and said:

We had hoped that Adrian would take advantage of his opportunity to be heard and present whatever information he believes should be considered before a decision on discipline, counseling and services is made. Because he and the NFLPA elected not to do so, we will have to address this based on the information currently available to us.

Still giving themselves room to do Whatever The Hell They Want.

 

[TREFF]

Still giving themselves room to do Whatever The Hell They Want.

be awesome if they actually did what they allegedly signed an agreement to do. What a novel concept that would be.