Why Canada can't win the Stanley Cup

[dash]

A great but pretty lengthy read - Kudos to Nate Silver on a fine piece.

Why Can't Canada Win the Stanley Cup? - NYTimes.com

 

[sabresfaninthesouth]

So the Canadian N.H.L. teams may suffer from a version of the problem that the Chicago Cubs faced during the “bleacher bum” years. Their fans are so loyal — happy enough to turn out for the spectacle and the beer even if the team stinks — that the franchises don’t have all that much incentive to put out a competitive product.

I think that paragraph (among other similar ones) was directed squarely at Toronto especially.

 

[sabresfaninthesouth]

Excellent read overall. I was wondering why he spent so much time on market size, etc. for a while, but it all came together at the end. I assumed it was since the guy is a statistical wunderkind, but it took a bit of time.

 

[RobBase]

Ah, the old Detroit Lions theory. Well played, Silver.

 

[dash]

One item in my opinion missing from the piece though is that the Canadian teams have been poorly managed over the last 20 years (with the lone exception being the Senators). Canadian teams for the most part have drafted poorly and have made bad short-term decisions in free agency.

 

[IPostedWhat]

I thought it was because the NHL insists on keeping a team in Phoenix?

 

[sabresfaninthesouth]

One item in my opinion missing from the piece though is that the Canadian teams have been poorly managed over the last 20 years (with the lone exception being the Senators). Canadian teams for the most part have drafted poorly and have made bad short-term decisions in free agency.

Pretty sure that was left out intentionally. He's trying to do an analysis only of statistical factors, where that is obviously much more intangible.

Because that definitely plays into his assumption that, in any given year, each team has an equal chance of winning the Cup. Obviously coming into this season, no logical person would have said that Florida had as good of a chance of winning as Chicago or Pittsburgh.

 

[dash]

I thought it was because the NHL insists on keeping a team in Phoenix?

Make it 7, no wait it would now be eight IPW

 

[dash]

Pretty sure that was left out intentionally. He's trying to do an analysis only of statistical factors, where that is obviously much more intangible.

Because that definitely plays into his assumption that, in any given year, each team has an equal chance of winning the Cup. Obviously coming into this season, no logical person would have said that Florida had as good of a chance of winning as Chicago or Pittsburgh.

You sir have an excellent point

 

[IPostedWhat]

To be fair, 4 out of the 7 Canadian teams made it to the PO's this year. That's a 57% success rate.

Compare that to the 52% of American teams, and you can see that the Canadian teams fared better than their American counterparts.

Shit happens is all, and the biggest problem was not one Canadian team could get past the 2nd Round. But don't blame the East, since they had 3 of the 4 teams representing Canada. I'm looking at you Windshield.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

One item in my opinion missing from the piece though is that the Canadian teams have been poorly managed over the last 20 years (with the lone exception being the Senators). Canadian teams for the most part have drafted poorly and have made bad short-term decisions in free agency.

I think that falls under the umbrella of the "lack of incentive" argument. How else does one explain the continued employment of Kevin Lowe? Or even the Sutter's second family farm, aka the Calgary Flames of the last few years?

 

[Winged_Wheel88]

To be fair, 4 out of the 7 Canadian teams made it to the PO's this year. That's a 57% success rate.

Compare that to the 52% of American teams, and you can see that the Canadian teams fared better than their American counterparts.

Shit happens is all, and the biggest problem was not one Canadian team could get past the 2nd Round. But don't blame the East, since they had 3 of the 4 teams representing Canada. I'm looking at you Windshield.

REPORTED!

 

[jstewismybastardson]

tangential and Im not sure if its been posted before but Dowbiggin is writing a book on Mike Gillis / the Canucks in the vein of Money Ball (i guess)

titled: "Best Practices: The Canucks search for perfection"

Im thinking its a verrrrrrrrrry long book

 

[davnlaguna]

It is the curse of the stick of 93
It is a fact , facts are things I believe with or without proof, that the Canadiens measured the Kings sticks prior to the game. Sure it helped Habs that year but the curse was inacted. And because us Californians cant tell the difference between Canadien and Canadian, all of them must suffer. I thought winning the cup would lift the curse but not totally it seems.

 

[forty_three]

Very nice. That guy is like a geek hero.

Excellent point about the financial timing side. Once the Canadian dollar got stronger, the salary cap got instituted. Rotten luck for all Can teams. Especially with (as dash noted) the mismanagement. Less room for error means the mistakes of guys like Lowe are magnified because of the cap.

 

[Darkstone42]

To be fair, 4 out of the 7 Canadian teams made it to the PO's this year. That's a 57% success rate.

Compare that to the 52% of American teams, and you can see that the Canadian teams fared better than their American counterparts.

Shit happens is all, and the biggest problem was not one Canadian team could get past the 2nd Round. But don't blame the East, since they had 3 of the 4 teams representing Canada. I'm looking at you Windshield.

Two of those teams happened to meet in the first round, and one of them was pretty banged up for that series as well. That didn't help their chances.

Vancouver's been to a Stanley Cup very recently as well, and ran into a very hot goaltender playing in front of a very strong defensive team. One or the other, and they might have had a shot.

But overall, the premise of the piece is likely accurate. Some people in charge of incompetent management in Canadian markets have held onto their jobs, and it's likely largely because there's no financial incentive to change anything.

 

[forty_three]

Do we count the Avs as a "Canadian Team" because the team that won the cup the first time was assembled in Canada with leftover parts from Eric Lindros?

I think they win a few cups even if they don't move.





Although Roy would never get traded from Montreal to Quebec, sooooo...

And the 94 Rangers were essentially the 90 Oilers.

 

[sabresfaninthesouth]

Do we count the Avs as a "Canadian Team" because the team that won the cup the first time was assembled in Canada with leftover parts from Eric Lindros?

I think they win a few cups even if they don't move.





Although Roy would never get traded from Montreal to Quebec, sooooo...

And the 94 Rangers were essentially the 90 Oilers.

Imagine the riots in Montreal if that had happened.

 

[forty_three]

Imagine the riots in Montreal if that had happened.

It would be worse than if Vancouver lost a game!

 

[esls79]

Montreal doesn't riot very often - off the top of my head, I can only remember two:

When Rocket Richard was suspended and back in 92 for the Guns n Roses/Metallica/Faith No More tour