Dumpster Diving With Jer Jer: Your guide to our Cold Stove Season

[PolarVortex]

Who we, the fans, want, but despite hopeful speculation, will not get
Cody Bellinger - Bellinger will command a 5year/$125 million contract and I'm probably lowballing.
Ohtani - Rumor has it that he lives, or at least has real estate property, in the Seattle area.

More Like Dipoto's style
Matt Chapman - he would come in to replace Eugeno who is only controlled one more year before he is a free agent. Geno would be traded or he or
Chapman would take over first base for 2024.
Rhys Hopkins- it would be like Dipoto to overpay for a three-outcome hitter who just missed an entire season to injury.
Teoscar Hernandez - I can see Dipoto giving him an extension at an inflated value.
Jeimar Candelario - (See Mat Chapman). Candelario has hit his ceiling in offensive production and it does not impress me.
Joc Peterson - I have a bad feeling that Dipoto might be in love with this guy. He's a career west coaster, three-outcome guy. In other words, he is right in Dipoto's wheelhouse.
Hunter Renfroe - He was once a Padre and he is a right fielder. Mariner GMs, regardless of who they are, always seem fascinated with Padreand ex-Padre players. We've traded for them more than any other organization.
Amed Rosario - this is a Jerry guy. A reclamation project who can play second base.
CJ Cron - Another three-outcome guy who would take over first base with some DH duties. Playing half his games in Safeco, he would make us want Ty France back.
Tim Anderson - another sell-low candidate that Jerry would stalk.
Jorge Soler - yet another three-outcome guy that Jer Jer seems to collect

 

[navamind]

More Like Dipoto's style
Matt Chapman - he would come in to replace Eugeno who is only controlled one more year before he is a free agent. Geno would be traded or he or
Chapman would take over first base for 2024.

Moving Chapman to 1st take away a good chunk of Chapman's value, not to mention Suarez is an inferior defender.

 

[PolarVortex]

Moving Chapman to 1st take away a good chunk of Chapman's value, not to mention Suarez is an inferior defender.

If you saw Suarez play 140 games a year, you would know that he is not an inferior defender to anyone. So, he doesn't have a Gold Glove. Those damn things are popularity contests anyway. Hell, Jeter has five. That should tell you all you need to know about GGs.

 

[PolarVortex]

Two guys I would to see Dipoto consider, although he won't:
Anthony Santander as a trade target. He has one year left before free agency. Baltimore could move him.
Brandon Lowe as a trade target. He has one year left before free agency. Lowe is coming off a down year but I think he can be a steady 25-30 homer/85-90 RBI guy. A nice bat at second base. Lowe has one year left before free agency. This is, historically, when Tampa Bay dumps their pending FAs.


More potential Dipoto dumpster diving targets:
Brandon Belt - overrated for his entire career. Seems like a Dipoto guy
Rowdy Tellez - Buy low guy. Dipoto would sell the fan base on his fluke 5 homer season two years ago.
Garrett Hampton - cheap alternative at second base. Not a solid offensive player.
Alex Verdugo -this guy worries me. I think he might be high on Dipoto's wish list. He'll never be more than a 15 homer/75 runs scored/70 RBI guy, but I can see Dipoto giving up too much for him.
Kyle Farmer - Infield utility guy. Might have one more semi-productive year left in him.
Wily Adams - second basemen who is of the Dipoto-favored three-outcome hitter profile.

 

[wazzu31]

Who we, the fans, want, but despite hopeful speculation, will not get
Cody Bellinger - Bellinger will command a 5year/$125 million contract and I'm probably lowballing.
Ohtani - Rumor has it that he lives, or at least has real estate property, in the Seattle area.

More Like Dipoto's style
Matt Chapman - he would come in to replace Eugeno who is only controlled one more year before he is a free agent. Geno would be traded or he or
Chapman would take over first base for 2024.
Rhys Hopkins- it would be like Dipoto to overpay for a three-outcome hitter who just missed an entire season to injury.
Teoscar Hernandez - I can see Dipoto giving him an extension at an inflated value.
Jeimar Candelario - (See Mat Chapman). Candelario has hit his ceiling in offensive production and it does not impress me.
Joc Peterson - I have a bad feeling that Dipoto might be in love with this guy. He's a career west coaster, three-outcome guy. In other words, he is right in Dipoto's wheelhouse.
Hunter Renfroe - He was once a Padre and he is a right fielder. Mariner GMs, regardless of who they are, always seem fascinated with Padreand ex-Padre players. We've traded for them more than any other organization.
Amed Rosario - this is a Jerry guy. A reclamation project who can play second base.
CJ Cron - Another three-outcome guy who would take over first base with some DH duties. Playing half his games in Safeco, he would make us want Ty France back.
Tim Anderson - another sell-low candidate that Jerry would stalk.
Jorge Soler - yet another three-outcome guy that Jer Jer seems to collect

-No shot at Bellinger
-Ohtani is the whale, and just signing him alone would make fans forget all the bs the FO has said or done
-Chapman is the same player as Geno, take away Chapman April and they are the same guy
-Hopkins would have to be a massive “overpay”. A RH hitter that needs a prove it deal isn’t going to choose TMobile park as a place to do it
-Teo (not sure if it has come out of they offered the QO or not) he will only be a Mariners if he signs the QO. He is kind of the same as Hopkins in terms he can’t build his value to get the good payday in Seattle
-Candelario wouldn’t be a bad fit in Seattle but they can’t keep building their roster with platoon players
-Peterson would be a solid addition if they trade Kelenic. They need a lefty bat
-Rosario would be an upgrade over Rojas and Dylan Moore
-Cron, no. We can’t complain about France and add him. Maybe if he is the LaStella of this year where the musical chairs have stopped and he is all that is left
-Anderson IMO wouldn’t be bad if they get him to be a better Dylan Moore. Dylan Moore should never get a meaningful AB in Seattle again. He is Willie Bloomquist except Jerry treats him like he is Julio
-Soler is intriguing but seems lateral with Teo.

It just sucks cause this FA class is the exact opposite of what Seattle needs. And something no one talks about is that is it solid for pitching which will hurt the market for Seattle to trade. Why would a team who needs pitching, give up a legit bat or bats when they could just go sign a guy. I get teams would like the whole salary control of Miller but at the moment Miller and Woo are back end of the rotation guys. And with the few teams that would be willing to sell, there isn’t a lot that would be worth Miller.

 

[PolarVortex]

MLBTR did their annual prediction for the landing spot and contract value of the top 50 free agents. The Mariners were linked to three guys who I rank somewhere between meh and moderately interesting. But none of the three are game changers:
JD Martinez - injury prone and getting long in the tooth (turns 37 next season). Wouldn't hit as well for the Mariners as he did for the Dodgers
Lourdes Gurriel - not much change from Teo
Tim Anderson - Could be an interesting reclamation product if he is not psychologically damaged goods (i.e.: lost confidence or lost motivation)

 

[wazzu31]

MLBTR did their annual prediction for the landing spot and contract value of the top 50 free agents. The Mariners were linked to three guys who I rank somewhere between meh and moderately interesting. But none of the three are game changers:
JD Martinez - injury prone and getting long in the tooth (turns 37 next season). Wouldn't hit as well for the Mariners as he did for the Dodgers
Lourdes Gurriel - not much change from Teo
Tim Anderson - Could be an interesting reclamation product if he is not psychologically damaged goods (i.e.: lost confidence or lost motivation)

I am high on Anderson if the team can get rid of Moore in a deal. Anderson is athletic enough to play multiple positions.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Who we, the fans, want, but despite hopeful speculation, will not get
Cody Bellinger - Bellinger will command a 5year/$125 million contract and I'm probably lowballing.
Ohtani - Rumor has it that he lives, or at least has real estate property, in the Seattle area.

More Like Dipoto's style
Matt Chapman - he would come in to replace Eugeno who is only controlled one more year before he is a free agent. Geno would be traded or he or
Chapman would take over first base for 2024.
Rhys Hopkins- it would be like Dipoto to overpay for a three-outcome hitter who just missed an entire season to injury.
Teoscar Hernandez - I can see Dipoto giving him an extension at an inflated value.
Jeimar Candelario - (See Mat Chapman). Candelario has hit his ceiling in offensive production and it does not impress me.
Joc Peterson - I have a bad feeling that Dipoto might be in love with this guy. He's a career west coaster, three-outcome guy. In other words, he is right in Dipoto's wheelhouse.
Hunter Renfroe - He was once a Padre and he is a right fielder. Mariner GMs, regardless of who they are, always seem fascinated with Padreand ex-Padre players. We've traded for them more than any other organization.
Amed Rosario - this is a Jerry guy. A reclamation project who can play second base.
CJ Cron - Another three-outcome guy who would take over first base with some DH duties. Playing half his games in Safeco, he would make us want Ty France back.
Tim Anderson - another sell-low candidate that Jerry would stalk.
Jorge Soler - yet another three-outcome guy that Jer Jer seems to collect

After we didn't even extend Teo a qualifying offer I'm incredibly pessimistic we will make any significant moves in free agency so here are my thoughts coming off that note:

Bellinger: MLBTR has him projected to get 12 years $264m. Not happening.
Ohtani: I've read that apparently he has already decided where he wants to go. It's just a matter of his agent getting him the most money at this point. Vegas has Dodgers +250 and Giants +500 as favorites. Yankees, Mets and Mariners at +700. That tells me that the Dodgers are where he wants to go with the Giants being a backup.

Chapman: I like the idea of it because he could take over third from Suarez, perhaps allowing us to have a real DH, but that sounds like it makes too much sense when we have half a dozen utility players who can rotate at DH.
Hopkins: If the Phillies wouldn't even give him a QO, I have to assume his medicals don't look great.
Teo: We already got our answer here.
Candelario: I say "meh," but this actually screams a Mariners addition. They'll pay for the player he was in 2023, but he'll hit like he did in 2022.
Pederson: You might be right that this could be a guy Jerry would like. It would be a regression from Teo but would likely be cheaper.
Renfroe: Same as Pederson.
Rosario: Meh
Cron: Meh
Tim Anderson: I actually wouldn't be upset if we signed him. His numbers from 2019-2022 were great. Albeit I have little optimism about anyone rebounding in Seattle.

 

[seahawksfan234]

MLBTR did their annual prediction for the landing spot and contract value of the top 50 free agents. The Mariners were linked to three guys who I rank somewhere between meh and moderately interesting. But none of the three are game changers:
JD Martinez - injury prone and getting long in the tooth (turns 37 next season). Wouldn't hit as well for the Mariners as he did for the Dodgers
Lourdes Gurriel - not much change from Teo
Tim Anderson - Could be an interesting reclamation product if he is not psychologically damaged goods (i.e.: lost confidence or lost motivation)

Anderson's drop off was strange. My assumption was he just gave up.

I wouldn't mind JD Martinez but I have strong paranoia that any vet hitter that comes here would regress substantially.

 

[NWinAZ]

I read ESPN's prediction. Four guys each predicting the same 7 players. Only one guy predicted one of those seven to Mariners and that was Bellinger but also said:

Schoenfield: Seattle Mariners. This is a long shot given their reluctance to sign free agents under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, but they have to be looking at the Rangers and thinking, "We have to spend some money if we want to compete with them" (and the Houston Astros). The Mariners need a left-handed, middle-of-the-order bat and, after ranking second in the majors in strikeouts, perhaps one that puts the ball in play. Bellinger did that in 2023, striking out just 15.7% of the time. He could replace Teoscar Hernandez in right, giving the Mariners a stellar defensive outfield, or play first base, allowing Ty France to slide into a DH role the Mariners have had trouble filling in recent years. Obviously, he comes with a large degree of risk given what he hit in 2021 and 2022, but some mechanical tweaks certainly helped, and that contact rate is a good sign for future productivity.

 

[PolarVortex]

ppppppppppppp

After we didn't even extend Teo a qualifying offer I'm incredibly pessimistic we will make any significant moves in free agency so here are my thoughts coming off that note:

Bellinger: MLBTR has him projected to get 12 years $264m. Not happening.
Ohtani: I've read that apparently he has already decided where he wants to go. It's just a matter of his agent getting him the most money at this point. Vegas has Dodgers +250 and Giants +500 as favorites. Yankees, Mets and Mariners at +700. That tells me that the Dodgers are where he wants to go with the Giants being a backup.

Chapman: I like the idea of it because he could take over third from Suarez, perhaps allowing us to have a real DH, but that sounds like it makes too much sense when we have half a dozen utility players who can rotate at DH.
Hopkins: If the Phillies wouldn't even give him a QO, I have to assume his medicals don't look great.
Teo: We already got our answer here.
Candelario: I say "meh," but this actually screams a Mariners addition. They'll pay for the player he was in 2023, but he'll hit like he did in 2022.
Pederson: You might be right that this could be a guy Jerry would like. It would be a regression from Teo but would likely be cheaper.
Renfroe: Same as Pederson.
Rosario: Meh
Cron: Meh
Tim Anderson: I actually wouldn't be upset if we signed him. His numbers from 2019-2022 were great. Albeit I have little optimism about anyone rebounding in Seattle.

Ohtani's pending signing with the Dodgers is probably the worst-kept secret of the Hot Stove.
Bellinger isn't getting 12/$264 unless he signs with the Yankees or Mets.

 

[wazzu31]

I read ESPN's prediction. Four guys each predicting the same 7 players. Only one guy predicted one of those seven to Mariners and that was Bellinger but also said:

Schoenfield: Seattle Mariners. This is a long shot given their reluctance to sign free agents under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, but they have to be looking at the Rangers and thinking, "We have to spend some money if we want to compete with them" (and the Houston Astros). The Mariners need a left-handed, middle-of-the-order bat and, after ranking second in the majors in strikeouts, perhaps one that puts the ball in play. Bellinger did that in 2023, striking out just 15.7% of the time. He could replace Teoscar Hernandez in right, giving the Mariners a stellar defensive outfield, or play first base, allowing Ty France to slide into a DH role the Mariners have had trouble filling in recent years. Obviously, he comes with a large degree of risk given what he hit in 2021 and 2022, but some mechanical tweaks certainly helped, and that contact rate is a good sign for future productivity.

Not sure what to bet, but the Mariners getting Bellinger would be the most shocking thing I’ve ever seen from the Mariners. It would be shocking in a good way but (I know you don’t like the term overpay) but in order to sign Bellinger the Mariners will have to massively overpay the market.

I know I wrote it on the other thread but it really irks me that the Mariners are even linked to Bellinger and Martinez when they had zero interest last offseason when they desperately could’ve used them and would’ve been cheaper. IMO Martinez’ value went up but also a year older on a dude who can’t play in the field.

 

[NWinAZ]

Not sure what to bet, but the Mariners getting Bellinger would be the most shocking thing I’ve ever seen from the Mariners. It would be shocking in a good way but (I know you don’t like the term overpay) but in order to sign Bellinger the Mariners will have to massively overpay the market.

I know I wrote it on the other thread but it really irks me that the Mariners are even linked to Bellinger and Martinez when they had zero interest last offseason when they desperately could’ve used them and would’ve been cheaper. IMO Martinez’ value went up but also a year older on a dude who can’t play in the field.

But isn't that the Mariners way no matter who is in charge? Always a year late just like in Nelson Cruz situation.

 

[wazzu31]

But isn't that the Mariners way no matter who is in charge? Always a year late just like in Nelson Cruz situation.

Yeah, the Mariners way is signing a dude too late or not trading dudes when they should. Cause that’s next on the agenda is when they will be trading Gilbert and Raleigh.

 

[PolarVortex]

Yeah, the Mariners way is signing a dude too late or not trading dudes when they should. Cause that’s next on the agenda is when they will be trading Gilbert and Raleigh.

Raliegh missed the cutoff for Super 2, so they will get him cheap for another year.
But Ty France, Logan Gilbert, Josh Rojas and Mike Ford will all qualify for first or second-year arbitration, costing the team $11-13 million more than last year. That will be the org's excuse for not chasing pricey free agents. "We have to take care of our own guys first." (Like no other team has a similar issue.)
You could argue that the salaries of Teo, Sewald, Flexen, Pollock, and Wong will not weigh down the 2024 payroll, but that would probably fall on deaf ears.

 

[wazzu31]

Raliegh missed the cutoff for Super 2, so they will get him cheap for another year.
But Ty France, Logan Gilbert, Josh Rojas and Mike Ford will all qualify for first or second-year arbitration, costing the team $11-13 million more than last year. That will be the org's excuse for not chasing pricey free agents. "We have to take care of our own guys first." (Like no other team has a similar issue.)
You could argue that the salaries of Teo, Sewald, Flexen, Pollock, and Wong will not weigh down the 2024 payroll, but that would probably fall on deaf ears.

I know with Raleigh, they got basically one more year with him and will most likely be dealt. We will all see if Raleigh will be a Mariner in 2025 by June if Harry Ford is still playing catcher full time in the minors. You can always tell how the big club feels about a dudes progress when they start switching positions. I remember Cal was doing so well they moved him to 1B in Tacoma in case France couldn’t handle it. Same with moving Seager to 3rd and moving Adam Jones all over the field cause dumbass Ichiro was dicking the FO around.

I think France will be retained but heard a theory that since Jerry likes getting cute with the roster they may not tender him at his current contract. Would be risky as hell but after the abomination 2023 he had I could see him doing it.

Personally I feel they “can’t” keep both Gilbert and Kirby. If Jerry even has it in his mind that Gilbert is available to trade then he should do it this offseason to get maximum value. It’s what pissed me off about Jerry, he thought about rebuilding but waited until the offseason instead of tearing it down at the deadline when he had the number 1 at numerous spots that would’ve instantly put the Mariners farm system into one of the elite ones.

And I will still defend the organization on them being cheap. I am in the minority but Jerry has been given resources. It hasn’t been $50 million on an offseason but by every persons account that I’ve heard is Jerry is hated by agents and players. So until Jerry can change everything about his personality then it doesn’t matter if organization is cheap or not. Snell has openly stated he wants to come to Seattle, but he is the opposite of a Jerry guy.

 

[PolarVortex]

I know with Raleigh, they got basically one more year with him and will most likely be dealt. We will all see if Raleigh will be a Mariner in 2025 by June if Harry Ford is still playing catcher full time in the minors. You can always tell how the big club feels about a dudes progress when they start switching positions. I remember Cal was doing so well they moved him to 1B in Tacoma in case France couldn’t handle it. Same with moving Seager to 3rd and moving Adam Jones all over the field cause dumbass Ichiro was dicking the FO around.

I think France will be retained but heard a theory that since Jerry likes getting cute with the roster they may not tender him at his current contract. Would be risky as hell but after the abomination 2023 he had I could see him doing it.

Personally I feel they “can’t” keep both Gilbert and Kirby. If Jerry even has it in his mind that Gilbert is available to trade then he should do it this offseason to get maximum value. It’s what pissed me off about Jerry, he thought about rebuilding but waited until the offseason instead of tearing it down at the deadline when he had the number 1 at numerous spots that would’ve instantly put the Mariners farm system into one of the elite ones.

And I will still defend the organization on them being cheap. I am in the minority but Jerry has been given resources. It hasn’t been $50 million on an offseason but by every persons account that I’ve heard is Jerry is hated by agents and players. So until Jerry can change everything about his personality then it doesn’t matter if organization is cheap or not. Snell has openly stated he wants to come to Seattle, but he is the opposite of a Jerry guy.

I think the thing that bugs me the most about Snell is that he is going to give you about 530 outs in a given year and it is probably going to cost you around $28 million a year, or about $290,000 per out. Is he really worth that?

 

[PolarVortex]

I think the thing that bugs me the most about Snell is that he is going to give you about 530 outs in a given year and it is probably going to cost you around $28 million a year, or about $290,000 per out. Is he really worth that?

Bad math. More like about $53,000 per out. Clearly math and bourbon do not mix well.

 

[PolarVortex]

It just sucks cause this FA class is the exact opposite of what Seattle needs. And something no one talks about is that is it solid for pitching which will hurt the market for Seattle to trade. Why would a team who needs pitching, give up a legit bat or bats when they could just go sign a guy. I get teams would like the whole salary control of Miller but at the moment Miller and Woo are back end of the rotation guys. And with the few teams that would be willing to sell, there isn’t a lot that would be worth Miller.

That seems to be changing a little bit, at least as far as second base goes. Knowing Dipoto, he'll probably want to stick with the Rojas/Cabellero combo at second. (it's not a bad platoon. Caellero hits lefties well (.265 BA/.395 OBP) and Rojas is decent against righties. I wouldn't mind if they stuck with that platoon as long as they splurged on an all-star caliber corner outfielder. But, the only ones available (Soto, Bellinger) aren't coming here.

So, some second basemen who seem to be available:
Brandon Drury - back-to-back solid seasons of 20+ homers/80+ RBI. $8.5 million next year then an FA after that.
Brendon Donovan - above-average defense. Above-average OPS. Controllable for four more years. Lots of teams interested in him. Cheap.
Jorge Polanco - Gpood OBP, some power. Above average OPS. Injury prone. $11.25 million unless his option is picked up.
Jonathon India - Great rookie season followed by two underwhelming injury-riddled seasons. Three more years of team control. Jerry likes to trade with Cincy. I can see India landing here.
Willy Adames - three outcome guy. Below average OPS. Strikes out a ton. But hits homers and racks up ribbies. $8.7 million and then an FA next winter.
Ha-Seong Kim - not sure why he might be available. He shouldn't Surprising 5.8 WAR last year.$8 million in 2024. Controllable for three more years.
Gleybar Torres - Free agent after 2024. Should be highly motivated to get a big payday next winter. He hits for power, scores a lot of runs. With only one year of team control, he is not a Dipoto guy.

 

[wazzu31]

That seems to be changing a little bit, at least as far as second base goes. Knowing Dipoto, he'll probably want to stick with the Rojas/Cabellero combo at second. (it's not a bad platoon. Caellero hits lefties well (.265 BA/.395 OBP) and Rojas is decent against righties. I wouldn't mind if they stuck with that platoon as long as they splurged on an all-star caliber corner outfielder. But, the only ones available (Soto, Bellinger) aren't coming here.

So, some second basemen who seem to be available:
Brandon Drury - back-to-back solid seasons of 20+ homers/80+ RBI. $8.5 million next year then an FA after that.
Brendon Donovan - above-average defense. Above-average OPS. Controllable for four more years. Lots of teams interested in him. Cheap.
Jorge Polanco - Gpood OBP, some power. Above average OPS. Injury prone. $11.25 million unless his option is picked up.
Jonathon India - Great rookie season followed by two underwhelming injury-riddled seasons. Three more years of team control. Jerry likes to trade with Cincy. I can see India landing here.
Willy Adames - three outcome guy. Below average OPS. Strikes out a ton. But hits homers and racks up ribbies. $8.7 million and then an FA next winter.
Ha-Seong Kim - not sure why he might be available. He shouldn't Surprising 5.8 WAR last year.$8 million in 2024. Controllable for three more years.
Gleybar Torres - Free agent after 2024. Should be highly motivated to get a big payday next winter. He hits for power, scores a lot of runs. With only one year of team control, he is not a Dipoto guy.

With Drury, I think Jerry hates him personally as a player. He’s had two chance to get him, the Castillo deal and last offseason. He can’t play SS but would be a massive upgrade over Cabellero.

Donovan, Polanco and India seem like they’d be good fits, but with all of them I keep seeing Miller/Woo plus prospects. Donovan and India were linking to Seattle last year and they didn’t pull the trigger when the entire staff was healthy. So not sure.

Adames and Torres are intriguing guys as well. But as you said their offensive profile isn’t the whole control the zone bs. It is an eh whatever, but will be kind of funny that they couldn’t spend 20 million on Teo but could for these guy.

Kim would be 1000% from me depending on the price. On the other thread the talk about Soto, if they tossed him in as well then I’d feel much more confident in giving up some legit prospects. But Kim is kind of my fear that the Mariners will go after that other Korean outfielder. Kim struggled to adapt at first in MLB but seems to have found it. And the Mariners aren’t in a position to just let a guy flounder in the starting lineup and hopefully figure it out.

But outside of Kim, I think all of these guys are upgrades over the 3B and 2B problems. But if they swing deals I hope it isn’t the only one. JP, Julio and Cal are the only offensive spots that should be locked in