Official Race to the Finish for 2024 Draft Position

[LHG]

Prior to last year, it was pretty cut and dry, the worse your team played, the higher the draft position in all round of next year's Rule 4 draft. However, now there is a lottery system for the 18 teams who don't make the playoffs. Theoretically, any of the 18 non-playoff teams could get the very 1st pick of the draft. However, there is still weight on how poorly the teams perform in terms of likelihood of drafting first. Here is the breakdown of chances based on end of season finish:

Here is the current order of the 18 likely teams to be in the lottery for the top pick next year (best and worst case positioning for each team in paranthesis):
1. Oakland 48-108 (1-3)
2. Kansas City 54-102 (1-4)
3. Colorado 56-99 (2-4)
4. White Sox 60-96 (2-4)
5. Saint Louis 68-88 (5-11)
6. Washington 69-88 (5-11)
7. Angels 70-86 (5-12)
8. Mets 71-85 (5-13)
9. Detroit 73-83 (5-16)
10. Cleveland 74-83 (5-16)
11. Pittsburgh 74-82 (5-17)
12. Boston 76-80 (7-18)
t13. San Francisco 77-79 (8-18)
t13. San Diego 77-79 (8-18)
15. Yankees 78-77 (9-18)
16. Cincinnati 80-77 (11-18)
17. Miami 81-75 (12-18)
18. Seattle 84-71 (15-18)

This means that the Giants' best case scenario to get the 1st pick of the 2024 draft is 3.9% and worst case is 0.23% Not good. What I haven't figured out is what the scenarios are for 2nd pick, 3rd pick, 4th pick, etc. If I find out, I will update here.

Edit: I've read the lottery determines anywhere between the top 6 and top 8 picks. I assume that if the Giants don't get a pick through the lottery, they will pick based on season record order. So the Giants could still get as high as the 8th pick if they go 0-6 the rest of the way and they don't get a pick through the lottery system.

 

[stanford the manford]

Draft 1st or last, it doesn't really matter if you don't develop players into productive major leaguers

 

[LHG]

Draft 1st or last, it doesn't really matter if you don't develop players into productive major leaguers

That is very true. I'm just trying to find something exciting for these last 6 games.

 

[LHG]

Updated order for 9/25 (I had some of the ranges off and adjusted them as well):
1. Oakland 48-108 (1-2)
2. Kansas City 54-102 (1-3)
3. Colorado 56-99 (2-3)
4. White Sox 60-96 (2-4)
5. Saint Louis 68-88 (5-11)
6. Washington 69-88 (5-11)
7. Angels 70-87 (5-11)
8. Mets 71-85 (5-13)
9. Detroit 73-83 (5-15)
10. Cleveland 74-83 (5-15)
11. Pittsburgh 74-82 (5-16)
12. Boston 76-80 (8-17)
13. San Diego 77-80 (8-17)
14. San Francisco 78-79 (9-17)
15. Yankees 79-77 (9-18)
16. Cincinnati 80-77 (11-18)
17. Miami 81-75 (12-18)
18. Seattle 84-72 (15-18)

 

[calsnowskier]

Updated order for 9/25 (I had some of the ranges off and adjusted them as well):
1. Oakland 48-108 (1-2)
2. Kansas City 54-102 (1-3)
3. Colorado 56-99 (2-3)
4. White Sox 60-96 (2-4)
5. Saint Louis 68-88 (5-11)
6. Washington 69-88 (5-11)
7. Angels 70-87 (5-11)
8. Mets 71-85 (5-13)
9. Detroit 73-83 (5-15)
10. Cleveland 74-83 (5-15)
11. Pittsburgh 74-82 (5-16)
12. Boston 76-80 (8-17)
13. San Diego 77-80 (8-17)
14. San Francisco 78-79 (9-17)
15. Yankees 79-77 (9-18)
16. Cincinnati 80-77 (11-18)
17. Miami 81-75 (12-18)
18. Seattle 84-72 (15-18)

You need some more tweaking of the ranges. You have oak, kc and col all guaranteed top 3, but then you show ChW with a possible 2 finish.

Good work, don’t get me wrong. Just providing some QA.

 

[LHG]

You need some more tweaking of the ranges. You have oak, kc and col all guaranteed top 3, but then you show ChW with a possible 2 finish.

Good work, don’t get me wrong. Just providing some QA.

Good catch. This should be accurate now:
1. Oakland 48-108 (1-2)
2. Kansas City 54-102 (1-4)
3. Colorado 56-99 (2-4)
4. White Sox 60-96 (2-4)
5. Saint Louis 68-88 (5-11)
6. Washington 69-88 (5-11)
7. Angels 70-87 (5-11)
8. Mets 71-85 (5-13)
9. Detroit 73-83 (5-15)
10. Cleveland 74-83 (5-15)
11. Pittsburgh 74-82 (5-16)
12. Boston 76-80 (8-17)
13. San Diego 77-80 (8-17)
14. San Francisco 78-79 (9-17)
15. Yankees 79-77 (9-18)
16. Cincinnati 80-77 (11-18)
17. Miami 81-75 (12-18)
18. Seattle 84-72 (15-18)

 

[LHG]

Updated for 9/26:
1. Oakland 48-109 (1)
2. Kansas City 54-103 (2-4)
3. Colorado 57-100 (2-4)
4. White Sox 60-97 (3-4)
5. Washington 69-89 (5-8)
6. Saint Louis 69-88 (5-11)
7. Angels 71-87 (5-11)
8. Mets 71-85 (5-13)
9. Cleveland 74-84 (6-14)
t10. Detroit 74-83 (6-15)
t10. Pittsburgh 74-83 (6-15)
12. Boston 76-81 (8-17)
t13. San Diego 78-80 (9-17)
t13. San Francisco 78-80 (9-17)
15. Yankees 80-77 (10-18)
16. Cincinnati 81-77 (12-18)
17. Miami 81-75 (12-18)
18. Seattle 85-72 (15-18)

The Oakland Athletics have officially clinched worst record in MLB. However, two of Kansas City, Colorado and White Sox will get equal chance at the 1st pick of the 2024 draft.

 

[LHG]

Updated for 9/27:
1. Oakland 48-110 (1)
2. Kansas City 54-103 (2-3)
3. Colorado 57-101 (2-4)
4. White Sox 60-98 (3-4)
5. Washington 69-90 (5-8)
6. Saint Louis 69-89 (5-8)
7. Angels 71-88 (5-8)
8. Mets 72-86 (5-12)
9. Pittsburgh 74-84 (6-13)
10. Detroit 74-83 (7-14)
11. Cleveland 75-84 (8-13)
12. Boston 76-82 (8-14)
13. San Francisco 78-81 (9-16)
14. San Diego 79-80 (11-17)
15. Yankees 81-77 (13-17)
16. Cincinnati 81-78 (13-17)
17. Miami/Cubs 82-76 (14-18)
18. Seattle 85-73 (17-18)

Folks, I'll be on the road for the next few days so I probably won't be around for the season to (mercifully) finish.

 

[Stokes1931]

Updated for 9/27:
1. Oakland 48-110 (1)
2. Kansas City 54-103 (2-3)
3. Colorado 57-101 (2-4)
4. White Sox 60-98 (3-4)
5. Washington 69-90 (5-8)
6. Saint Louis 69-89 (5-8)
7. Angels 71-88 (5-8)
8. Mets 72-86 (5-12)
9. Pittsburgh 74-84 (6-13)
10. Detroit 74-83 (7-14)
11. Cleveland 75-84 (8-13)
12. Boston 76-82 (8-14)
13. San Francisco 78-81 (9-16)
14. San Diego 79-80 (11-17)
15. Yankees 81-77 (13-17)
16. Cincinnati 81-78 (13-17)
17. Miami/Cubs 82-76 (14-18)
18. Seattle 85-73 (17-18)

Folks, I'll be on the road for the next few days so I probably won't be around for the season to (mercifully) finish.

Safe travels, LHG. Where you headed? Work or pleasure or both?

 

[stanford the manford]

Record setting season for the Giants!

Per KNBR:

The 2023 Giants, one of the franchise’s most offensively challenged teams in years, set their single-season strikeout record with five on the night. Tyler Fitzgerald, who had an otherwise great game, was (Un)Lucky No. 1,468

 

[Stokes1931]

Record setting season for the Giants!

Per KNBR:

The 2023 Giants, one of the franchise’s most offensively challenged teams in years, set their single-season strikeout record with five on the night. Tyler Fitzgerald, who had an otherwise great game, was (Un)Lucky No. 1,468

But wait! There's more! (to come)

 

[stanford the manford]

But wait! There's more! (to come)

I'm pretty sure the all time error record is out of reach. We haven't had enough base runners to challenge the LOB record.

We'll need to to a year end summary, nice to hit the most strike out record with a few games to go...

 

[LHG]

Safe travels, LHG. Where you headed? Work or pleasure or both?

Thanks Stokes! Went to Utah and Arizona to visit Arches, Canyonlands, Capitol Reef, Grand Canyon (North Rim) and Zion (with a side jaunt to Red Canyon, just west of Bryce Canyon). It was really fun but back to the grind today, after a long day on the road yesterday.

 

[LHG]

Final standings (with chance of 1st pick in parenthesis):
1. Oakland 50-112 (16.5%)
2. Kansas City 56-106 (16.5%)
3. Colorado 59-103 (16.5%)
4. White Sox 61-101 (13.2%)
t5. Saint Louis 71-91 (10.0%)
t5. Washington 71-91 (0.0%)*
7. Angels 73-89 (7.5%)
8. Mets 75-87 (5.5%)
t9. Pittsburgh 76-86 (3.9%)
t9. Cleveland 76-86 (2.7%)
t11. Detroit 78-84 (1.4%)
t11. Boston 78-84 (1.1%)
13. San Francisco 79-83 (0.9%)
t14. Cincinnati 82-80 (0.8%)
t14. San Diego 82-80 (0.6%)
t14. Yankees 82-80 (0.5%)
17. Cubs 83-79 (0.4%)
18. Seattle 88-74 (0.2%)
*Washington is ineligible to land Top-9 pick due to new CBA/repeat lottery.
Other notes: If the Mets, Padres and Yankees do not secure a Top-6 pick, their respective pick will fall 10 spots. So if things go chalk, the Mets would pick 17th, the Padres 25th and Yankees 26th.
Nationals aren't eligible to pick higher than 10th in the draft. They had the No. 2 pick in the draft last year and are penalized by being a "big market team." Big market teams cannot win a draft lottery pick in consecutive seasons.

If a team below the Giants gets a pick in the lottery, the Giants could actually pick lower in the draft than the 13th spot. Theoretically, the Giants could pick as high as the 1st pick and as low as the 18th pick.

Information taken from this article: https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fa...the-number-one-pick-in-the-major-league-draft
And this article: Tankathon | 2024 MLB Draft Order & Lottery Simulator (You can simulate the lottery at this webpage. I ran the simulation 5 times and the Giants got put at 14th, 13th, 13th, 13th and 2nd).

 

[calsnowskier]

Final standings (with chance of 1st pick in parenthesis):
1. Oakland 50-112 (16.5%)
2. Kansas City 56-106 (16.5%)
3. Colorado 59-103 (16.5%)
4. White Sox 61-101 (13.2%)
t5. Saint Louis 71-91 (10.0%)
t5. Washington 71-91 (0.0%)*
7. Angels 73-89 (7.5%)
8. Mets 75-87 (5.5%)
t9. Pittsburgh 76-86 (3.9%)
t9. Cleveland 76-86 (2.7%)
t11. Detroit 78-84 (1.4%)
t11. Boston 78-84 (1.1%)
13. San Francisco 79-83 (0.9%)
t14. Cincinnati 82-80 (0.8%)
t14. San Diego 82-80 (0.6%)
t14. Yankees 82-80 (0.5%)
17. Cubs 83-79 (0.4%)
18. Seattle 88-74 (0.2%)
*Washington is ineligible to land Top-9 pick due to new CBA/repeat lottery.
Other notes: If the Mets, Padres and Yankees do not secure a Top-6 pick, their respective pick will fall 10 spots. So if things go chalk, the Mets would pick 17th, the Padres 25th and Yankees 26th.
Nationals aren't eligible to pick higher than 10th in the draft. They had the No. 2 pick in the draft last year and are penalized by being a "big market team." Big market teams cannot win a draft lottery pick in consecutive seasons.

If a team below the Giants gets a pick in the lottery, the Giants could actually pick lower in the draft than the 13th spot. Theoretically, the Giants could pick as high as the 1st pick and as low as the 18th pick.

Information taken from this article: https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fa...the-number-one-pick-in-the-major-league-draft
And this article: Tankathon | 2024 MLB Draft Order & Lottery Simulator (You can simulate the lottery at this webpage. I ran the simulation 5 times and the Giants got put at 14th, 13th, 13th, 13th and 2nd).

Can you explain how the Giants could pick 18? I thought the lottery was only for the top 3 picks. So I THINK the Giants could only pick as low as 16…

My understanding (very likely incorrect) is that their possible positions are 1, 2, 3, 13, 14, 15, 16.

 

[LHG]

Can you explain how the Giants could pick 18? I thought the lottery was only for the top 3 picks. So I THINK the Giants could only pick as low as 16…

My understanding (very likely incorrect) is that their possible positions are 1, 2, 3, 13, 14, 15, 16.

The lottery covers the top 6 picks, so the Giants could fall to 18th if the 5 teams all get lottery picks. That is obviously very unlikely but possible. The Giants will likely pick 13th.

 

[calsnowskier]

The lottery covers the top 6 picks, so the Giants could fall to 18th if the 5 teams all get lottery picks. That is obviously very unlikely but possible. The Giants will likely pick 13th.

Ah. I was (not surprisingly) uninformed…

 

[LHG]

Per MLBTR, here are the odds for each of the 18 non-playoff teams to get the 1st pick of the 2024 draft:

1. A’s (50-112): 18.3%
2. Royals (56-106): 18.3%
3. Rockies (59-103): 18.3%
4. White Sox (61-101): 14.7%
5. Cardinals (71-91): 8.3%
6. Angels (73-89): 6.1%
7. Mets (75-87): 4.3%
8. Pirates (76-86, 62-100 in ’22): 3%
9. Guardians (76-86, 92-70 in ’22): 2%
10. Nationals (71-91): Ineligible
11. Tigers (78-84, 66-96 in ’22): 1.6%
12. Red Sox (78-84, 78-84 in ’22): 1.2%
13. Giants (79-83): 1%
14. Reds (82-80, 62-100 in ’22): 0.9%
15. Padres (82-80, 89-73 in ’22): 0.7%
16. Yankees (82-80, 99-63 in ’22): 0.6%
17. Cubs (83-79): 0.4%
18. Mariners (88-74): 0.2%

 

[calsnowskier]

Per MLBTR, here are the odds for each of the 18 non-playoff teams to get the 1st pick of the 2024 draft:

1. A’s (50-112): 18.3%
2. Royals (56-106): 18.3%
3. Rockies (59-103): 18.3%
4. White Sox (61-101): 14.7%
5. Cardinals (71-91): 8.3%
6. Angels (73-89): 6.1%
7. Mets (75-87): 4.3%
8. Pirates (76-86, 62-100 in ’22): 3%
9. Guardians (76-86, 92-70 in ’22): 2%
10. Nationals (71-91): Ineligible
11. Tigers (78-84, 66-96 in ’22): 1.6%
12. Red Sox (78-84, 78-84 in ’22): 1.2%
13. Giants (79-83): 1%
14. Reds (82-80, 62-100 in ’22): 0.9%
15. Padres (82-80, 89-73 in ’22): 0.7%
16. Yankees (82-80, 99-63 in ’22): 0.6%
17. Cubs (83-79): 0.4%
18. Mariners (88-74): 0.2%

Hey, @sf1giantfan you got any pointers to help us achieve it?

 

[sf1giantfan]

Hey, @sf1giantfan you got any pointers to help us achieve it?

Sadly it would meaning giving up all of our top minor leaguers for getting the top pick that just might turn out to be a really good player.

I do wonder how the top draft picks turned out for the last few decades ? Maybe too much emphasis is put on the top pick, and instead we will get another Posey