2021 fantasy charts schedules etc

[averagejoe]

Here is the annual Fantasy Strength of Schedule (or FSOS) for each NFL team.

The FSOS is different from the typical SOS because it does NOT measure wins and losses.
Instead, the FSOS ranks each defense in (1) yards allowed, (2) points allowed, (3) turnovers and (4) sacks.
Which impact an opposing offense more than wins and losses.
Each of these 4 defensive categories are ranked, then averaged for each NFL team.
Then each rankings is bounced off the opponents schedule.
The lower the number, the tougher the defensive opponent.

Red is bad. Green is soft.

 

[leftypower]

It will be interesting to see if the annual, these defenses will be great and these will suck holds any water once the season starts. ... sooo, hard to predict prior to FA and draft. ...

 

[averagejoe]

It will be interesting to see if the annual, these defenses will be great and these will suck holds any water once the season starts. ... sooo, hard to predict prior to FA and draft. ...

If it adds any weight (and I feel it does), here is how the FSOS shapes up since I started measuring this in 2017:

2017 - 7 of 8 playoff teams had the easiest FSOS schedule. Only 4 playoff teams came from the top or hardest half.
2018 - 7 of the playoff teams came from the bottom (easiest) 13 of the FSOS schedule. Again, only 4 playoff teams came from the top half.
2019 - only 6 playoff teams came from the bottom 14 FSOS teams.
2020 - even with the expanded playoffs, 10 of the bottom 17 FSOS teams made the playoffs. Back to normal, only 4 playoff teams came from the harder top half of the FSOS.

So the majority of playoff teams come at the expense of the easiest defensive opponents.

 

[leftypower]

I won't argue with the stats - all I'm saying is that measuring which defenses are best and which are worst from last yr data could very well be misleading depending on FA/draft/injuries/coordinator. Now, it's certainly doubtful that a team moves from 32nd worst to 10th best but all those in the mid-range could certainly change between now and Sept enough to make a difference in expectations.
Trust me, I do pay attention to SOS, but it rarely changes who I draft from yr to yr - though admittedly it does have a factor for those on the borderline.

 

[averagejoe]

I won't argue with the stats - all I'm saying is that measuring which defenses are best and which are worst from last yr data could very well be misleading depending on FA/draft/injuries/coordinator. Now, it's certainly doubtful that a team moves from 32nd worst to 10th best but all those in the mid-range could certainly change between now and Sept enough to make a difference in expectations.
Trust me, I do pay attention to SOS, but it rarely changes who I draft from yr to yr - though admittedly it does have a factor for those on the borderline.

That's where I disagree.
Yes, I realize that a lot is at play for some defenses from year-to-year as players come and go. But based on the FSOS going back 4 years to 2017, I don't think it is a coincidence that the majority of playoff teams come from the bottom 10 (easiest) of defensive opponents each season.

 

[leftypower]

My final rebuttal - I'm sure the bolded portion is true, all I am saying is that Feb is awfully early to make assumption on the strength of DST's relative to others - a lot can change before they hit the field. ....

 

[SmokingMonkey]

seems awfully nice to be an AFC North team!
(all 7 of easiest schedules are AFC North or West.....insane)

 

[averagejoe]

 

[Bandit]

That's where I disagree.
Yes, I realize that a lot is at play for some defenses from year-to-year as players come and go. But based on the FSOS going back 4 years to 2017, I don't think it is a coincidence that the majority of playoff teams come from the bottom 10 (easiest) of defensive opponents each season.

Yeah, but I think what Lefty is trying to say is that we don't really care who makes the playoffs, we care who gives up the most and least fantasy points. LOL. Great job with the chart. I'll have to save that and reference back to it.

 

[Barilko]

@averagejoe amazing work Thank you....

ouch no Watson 2 wins max

 

[leftypower]

I was wondering when you'd take the lead and post a schedule - - big THANKS @averagejoe

 

[averagejoe]

I was wondering when you'd take the lead and post a schedule - - big THANKS @averagejoe

For a couple years i was able to copy some other site's efforts. This year I had to make it myself.

Since it is in Excel, if anyone wants the spreadsheet, i can email it.

I also recalculated the fantasy strength of schedule (FSOS) with extra (18th) game. Coming soon....

 

[averagejoe]

New and improved FSOS rankings.
Quick recap of this ranking - if you draft RJ2, Fournett, Brady, Evans and Godwin, just know that they play against the stingiest defenses. Meanwhile, Roethlisberger, Harris and JuJu play against some porous defenses.

 

[averagejoe]

This one is for the defense only. It takes the 18-game schedule and ranks each offense based on yards, scoring and turnovers.
Chicago's defense will have a tall task playing against the strongest offenses.

 

[averagejoe]

I think you'll like this one.
This is a breakdown of how all of the targets were distributed among the RB, TE and WR positions.
It also shows which teams passed more/less than others.

Statistical errors may be less than 1%. However, the Saints might be more based on Taysom Hill playing all over the place.

 

[wilwhite]

I think you'll like this one.
This is a breakdown of how all of the targets were distributed among the RB, TE and WR positions.
It also shows which teams passed more/less than others.

Statistical errors may be less than 1%. However, the Saints might be more based on Taysom Hill playing all over the place.

View attachment 271565

That’s interesting. I wonder how much has to do with OC, how much with QB, how much with how good the guys at the receiving positions are, and defensive schemes.

Some teams being at .12 at RB or TE and others being at .31/.33 makes defensive schemes less likely.

Speaking of Taysom Hill, any idea how this broke down for the Saints with Brees v. Hill at QB, or Burrow v. Brandon Allen in Cincy, and how things looked for WFT? That would tell us a lot about the QB effect.

 

[wilwhite]

Here is the annual Fantasy Strength of Schedule (or FSOS) for each NFL team.

The FSOS is different from the typical SOS because it does NOT measure wins and losses.
Instead, the FSOS ranks each defense in (1) yards allowed, (2) points allowed, (3) turnovers and (4) sacks.
Which impact an opposing offense more than wins and losses.
Each of these 4 defensive categories are ranked, then averaged for each NFL team.
Then each rankings is bounced off the opponents schedule.
The lower the number, the tougher the defensive opponent.

Red is bad. Green is soft.

View attachment 265834

Hm. Do you have last year’s?

 

[averagejoe]

Hm. Do you have last year’s?

Embedded here.
MBBRL SUICIDE 'A' DRAFT THREAD

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I think you'll like this one.
This is a breakdown of how all of the targets were distributed among the RB, TE and WR positions.
It also shows which teams passed more/less than others.

Statistical errors may be less than 1%. However, the Saints might be more based on Taysom Hill playing all over the place.

View attachment 271565

Another fun chart if you can find the stats...

Per game targets WR1, WR2, TE, RB, other( WR1 would be the top WR per game- not necessarily a specific someone)

Would be nice to see what teams spread the ball out more, and what teams just target their studs...

 

[averagejoe]

Per game targets WR1, WR2, TE, RB, other( WR1 would be the top WR per game- not necessarily a specific someone)

Would be nice to see what teams spread the ball out more, and what teams just target their studs...

I thought about it. With injuries, matchups, etc, didnt think it would be worth the extra effort.

Looking at some of the data already there, like BAL, they rarely throw, but it wouldnt take another chart to see that Mark Andrews benefited most in their passing attack.

In other words, most of these numbers point to the obvious already.