This Release Should Tell All Washington Fans

[Breed]

Somebody should ask Van Pelt what's the success rate for QBs picked in rounds 2 though 7.

The biggest takeaway in the Haskins situation is an idiot owner needs to keep his triflin ass out of football personnel decisions. Snyder's last 3 player personnel decisions have all been QBs. McNabb, Griffin n Haskins. And the common theme with all 3 is the overall results have been epic disasters.

Hopefully the Haskins pick will be Snyder's last.

 

[Caliskinsfan]

I’d honestly like to know what the success rate of 2-3 round QBs is. Gke, I remember you posting the first round QB stats somewhere...did it include this? Feel like it did but can’t find it.

My reasoning for next year and going with a bridge QB rests on a few additional things,

the success rate - don’t feel our team is built to slowly develop a first rounder, and I think our draft order likely places us out of contention for someone who can start immediately

The state of our O and and the additional pieces we need there

The state of our D and how long we have with contracts there to keep the nucleus together.

The cost and cap dollars


So overall, I could see a Fitz, Dalton, Tyrod or some such being the better option for us with a 2nd or 3rd round QB pick sitting and learning.

 

[Buffalo_Nickel_1]

Alex Allen Heineke will be our qbs for 2021 dont be suprise if we draft more Defense and the clemson RB only pro bowl type olineman we can get is the Risner clone is NorthWestern olinemen Slater ..14-20 ..A Gibson, Etennie Missic in the backfeild would be sick in which will open the pass game for our avg qbs. We will use most of the cap to resign a player or 2 or to extend other contracts

 

[Buffalo_Nickel_1]

We only have so much time with this defense before the front 7 gets blown up do to the cap ( paying the piper) how going to pay Allen and Paynes 2nd contract they will be top dollar soon

 

[j_y19]

Would you like to figure out the success rate of 2nd or 3rd round QBs as a comparison?

You take the best value at each slot. You don’t get scared because you have a need. If you have a hole in your line up, you look to your coaches to limit the effect.

Yup. But you also don’t reach or fall in love with a guy because you do have a hole. Unfortunately that is what we did with Haskins.

 

[Sportster 72]

I’d honestly like to know what the success rate of 2-3 round QBs is. Gke, I remember you posting the first round QB stats somewhere...did it include this? Feel like it did but can’t find it.

My reasoning for next year and going with a bridge QB rests on a few additional things,

the success rate - don’t feel our team is built to slowly develop a first rounder, and I think our draft order likely places us out of contention for someone who can start immediately

The state of our O and and the additional pieces we need there

The state of our D and how long we have with contracts there to keep the nucleus together.

The cost and cap dollars


So overall, I could see a Fitz, Dalton, Tyrod or some such being the better option for us with a 2nd or 3rd round QB pick sitting and learning.

You can scan down the line of QBs by looking up stats. Most are 1st round picks although some of them are not very good QBs. You also have Brady, Bree's, Wilson, Cousin's and Dak in the top 11, all 2nd round or later picks. The miss percentage is probably greater in rounds 2-7 but it isn't much better in round 1 where you are supposedly picking a starter.

QB is such a hard position to fill. I don't think you should predetermine a round to pick in. I think you should pick a guy you believe in. At that your percentage of being right is less than 50%.

My take for this coming year is if a guy you really like is available in the 1st round pick him. If not wait and save that money against the cap for other players and pick someone in a later round with hopes that they play better than projected.

Sometimes the misses are marginal players, sometimes (as seems now) they are colossal busts. Haskin's is still young. Maybe he learns to get better. I would not bet on it but you never know.

 

[scotsman1948]

Waiting for the cries of racism.

 

[skinsdad62]

I’d honestly like to know what the success rate of 2-3 round QBs is. Gke, I remember you posting the first round QB stats somewhere...did it include this? Feel like it did but can’t find it.

My reasoning for next year and going with a bridge QB rests on a few additional things,

the success rate - don’t feel our team is built to slowly develop a first rounder, and I think our draft order likely places us out of contention for someone who can start immediately

The state of our O and and the additional pieces we need there

The state of our D and how long we have with contracts there to keep the nucleus together.

The cost and cap dollars


So overall, I could see a Fitz, Dalton, Tyrod or some such being the better option for us with a 2nd or 3rd round QB pick sitting and learning.

all are stop gaps and that is fine if you know what you are getting and live with their flaws . and picking a qb after round one is the option i would choose

our team is built to develop a qb . it requires patience and sound cap management . it means avoiding name free agents and doing much like we did this year . i know a lot about the cap . this year we will have good space and the following year we will as well .

in this day and age you have to draft well and some positions will have to be filled again after 3-4 yrs to replace talent . you may lose a settle or a ionman and you will have to draft their replacements

so i say keep drafting qbs . see if you can develop one , much like safety when we picked apke in round 4 , saw he wasnt what we want , then pick a curl

i know no one wants to hear it but i dont give 2 shits about the current nfl , you are going to most likely develop a qb into a decent starter and stop chasing the franchise guy which are rare . focus on building the team that can assist the qb and not have the qb carry the hole team

now maybe it isnt 5 years maybe it will have to be like 2 . year one you sit and learn your craft , year 2 you apply your craft and year 3 you start to be the leader of the team

and maybe we need to stop talking in terms of bridge qbs . find your guy and build the team to fit him . if its taylor or dalton , then give him a strong defense and some weapons on offense so he doesnt have to carry the team and let his experience do the job

and hell if you think DAK is your guy then go get him

 

[skinz2winz]

We only have so much time with this defense before the front 7 gets blown up do to the cap ( paying the piper) how going to pay Allen and Paynes 2nd contract they will be top dollar soon

We win a SB next year with a journeyman QB, that's how.

 

[gkekoa]

I’d honestly like to know what the success rate of 2-3 round QBs is. Gke, I remember you posting the first round QB stats somewhere...did it include this? Feel like it did but can’t find it.

My reasoning for next year and going with a bridge QB rests on a few additional things,

the success rate - don’t feel our team is built to slowly develop a first rounder, and I think our draft order likely places us out of contention for someone who can start immediately

The state of our O and and the additional pieces we need there

The state of our D and how long we have with contracts there to keep the nucleus together.

The cost and cap dollars


So overall, I could see a Fitz, Dalton, Tyrod or some such being the better option for us with a 2nd or 3rd round QB pick sitting and learning.

I am pretty sure I did post the later round success rates. They were miserable.

The best thing for this team may be not being in a position to draft a rookie to start immediately. TBH, we should just keep AS rather than going for a different stop gap.

 

[gkekoa]

You can scan down the line of QBs by looking up stats. Most are 1st round picks although some of them are not very good QBs. You also have Brady, Bree's, Wilson, Cousin's and Dak in the top 11, all 2nd round or later picks. The miss percentage is probably greater in rounds 2-7 but it isn't much better in round 1 where you are supposedly picking a starter.

QB is such a hard position to fill. I don't think you should predetermine a round to pick in. I think you should pick a guy you believe in. At that your percentage of being right is less than 50%.

My take for this coming year is if a guy you really like is available in the 1st round pick him. If not wait and save that money against the cap for other players and pick someone in a later round with hopes that they play better than projected.

Sometimes the misses are marginal players, sometimes (as seems now) they are colossal busts. Haskin's is still young. Maybe he learns to get better. I would not bet on it but you never know.

I think the percentages are likely far lower he later you go. Most QBs in the league are first rounders. Theoretically, every round should have a similar number of QBs taken. If most of the QBs come from a single round, and only a few come from the other six rounds, but each round averages he same number of choices, the fail rate is far higher later.

In general, all draft picks should be taken on value and not desperation.

 

[MHSL82]

I am pretty sure I did post the later round success rates. They were miserable.

The best thing for this team may be not being in a position to draft a rookie to start immediately. TBH, we should just keep AS rather than going for a different stop gap.

My preference and I will put the disclaimer again that I am a Niners fan and an Alex Smith fan, would be to go with Smith for another year and if he can’t go, have Taylor play and you can draft someone as well. Obviously, if he goes in the next year and is only able to play six of the 16 games then you’ll know that the injury from 2018 caused overcompensation in other places. And in the meantime Taylor and the new draftwe would learn. Obviously, if you would rather have Allen instead of Taylor, go with Allen. I’m just talking in general.

 

[chillerdab]

List of starting and the rounds they were drafted in:

List of starting quarterbacks in the NFL - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Qb’s not drafted in the first round:

Bengals current qb - Brandon Allen
Dallas current qb - andy dalton
Dallas injured qb - Dak Prescott
Denver qb - drew lock
Jags - Mike Glennon
Raiders - Derrick Carr
Sportster’s favorite, the one and only Captains Courageous Kirk Cousins
Philly Special - Jalen Hurts
All SF qbs - Jimmy G., Nathan whomever, CJ Beathard
Some dude in Seattle,

AND......

The undisputed GOAT:

Thomas Brady.

 

[chillerdab]

So thats 9 nfl teams with no first round qb, not including teams - like the saints, Panthers, and Ravens - that are led by players taken at the very end of yhe first round (Brees, Bridgewater, and Jackson were all 32nd picks).

I think the WTF’s should take the best player available at their draft slot, and if that’s a qb, then so be it, and if it’s a TE, S, OL, or LB, even better.

I think it’s a virtual certainty that the WFT is going to add a vet presence, simply bc you cant count on Alex Smith being healthy. He strained his calf for crissakes and is out for a month - OBVIOUSLY for amazing, superhuman, miraculous reasons - but still, it’s a calf strain, not a torn acl.

I sure hope they draft a qb too. Competition.

 

[skinz2winz]

Alex Allen Heineke will be our qbs for 2021 dont be suprise if we draft more Defense and the clemson RB only pro bowl type olineman we can get is the Risner clone is NorthWestern olinemen Slater ..14-20 ..A Gibson, Etennie Missic in the backfeild would be sick in which will open the pass game for our avg qbs. We will use most of the cap to resign a player or 2 or to extend other contracts

I wouldn't be opposed to keeping Heineke around as a back up but also want to start over at QB. Want Allen & Smith to move on, sign a vet stop gap, keep Heineke and draft a qb to groom in rounds 2-5 next year. Vet/Heineke/Draft pick.

 

[MHSL82]

So thats 9 nfl teams with no first round qb, not including teams - like the saints, Panthers, and Ravens - that are led by players taken at the very end of yhe first round (Brees, Bridgewater, and Jackson were all 32nd picks).

I think the WTF’s should take the best player available at their draft slot, and if that’s a qb, then so be it, and if it’s a TE, S, OL, or LB, even better.

I think it’s a virtual certainty that the WFT is going to add a vet presence, simply bc you cant count on Alex Smith being healthy. He strained his calf for crissakes and is out for a month - OBVIOUSLY for amazing, superhuman, miraculous reasons - but still, it’s a calf strain, not a torn acl.

I sure hope they draft a qb too. Competition.

I might be wrong, but I think that if this past week were week 17, Smith may have played. I know that this week would’ve clinched and that’s important, but you see what happened to Durrant and other players who played on a minor injury that led to a major injury and Smith can’t afford that and neither can the temporary future for Washington at least for the playoffs (unless the coaching staff wants Heinicke).

I am pretty sure Smith will play this Sunday, especially if he plans to retire. Who knows? There is a little reason to worry about the future if this could be your last game in a loss or last playoff opportunity with a win and even if you got hurt in this game and they won and someone else started the playoff game, that means something.

I know you were talking about 2021 and this experience shows that minor things can be major after overcoming such an injury and that having such an injury and all the muscle changes, it opens you up to different injuries by overcompensating, the leg, etc.

I think the reason why this injury was so big was because they had an extra week to clinch. Smith will therefore have only missed a game and a half. That could be more in the future of course, but the almost a month it’s really almost 3 weeks and could’ve maybe been only one.

This is against the backdrop that New York had already played and lost that week. The time in West Smith was officially in active was when New York was down by double digits. If New York had played at the same time, you wouldn’t know that this game had a second chance next week.

 

[Sportster 72]

List of starting and the rounds they were drafted in:

List of starting quarterbacks in the NFL - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Qb’s not drafted in the first round:

Bengals current qb - Brandon Allen
Dallas current qb - andy dalton
Dallas injured qb - Dak Prescott
Denver qb - drew lock
Jags - Mike Glennon
Raiders - Derrick Carr
Sportster’s favorite, the one and only Captains Courageous Kirk Cousins
Philly Special - Jalen Hurts
All SF qbs - Jimmy G., Nathan whomever, CJ Beathard
Some dude in Seattle,

AND......

The undisputed GOAT:

Thomas Brady.

Just off the top of my head this list is missing .... Brees and Fitzpatrick, Heinicke, Kyle Allen, Ryan Finley

True, I do like me some Cousin's ... one reason (I have asked my shrink) I had no faith in Griffin and knew that Shanahan didn't either when he chose Cousin's after they gave up a kings ransom.

 

[Caliskinsfan]

(I have asked my shrink)

 

[Sportster 72]

I think the percentages are likely far lower he later you go. Most QBs in the league are first rounders. Theoretically, every round should have a similar number of QBs taken. If most of the QBs come from a single round, and only a few come from the other six rounds, but each round averages he same number of choices, the fail rate is far higher later.

In general, all draft picks should be taken on value and not desperation.

Yep, I understood that.

There are many reasons there are more 1st rounders still in the league. Money invested, time invested, potential etc. etc. You'll usually stick with a 1st rounder longer.

The difference is you pay so much less for a later pick. Something Cali and I have both mentioned over the past couple of weeks. Pay the D, draft a later round QB every year until you find one you like. This year I am in agreement with someone like Desmond Ridder. Option two is if someone falls to you that you really love then pick them. That is where you have to count on your scouting department. It has already been detailed how bad Bruce and Dan have been when they got involved.

 

[skinsdad62]

So thats 9 nfl teams with no first round qb, not including teams - like the saints, Panthers, and Ravens - that are led by players taken at the very end of yhe first round (Brees, Bridgewater, and Jackson were all 32nd picks).

I think the WTF’s should take the best player available at their draft slot, and if that’s a qb, then so be it, and if it’s a TE, S, OL, or LB, even better.

I think it’s a virtual certainty that the WFT is going to add a vet presence, simply bc you cant count on Alex Smith being healthy. He strained his calf for crissakes and is out for a month - OBVIOUSLY for amazing, superhuman, miraculous reasons - but still, it’s a calf strain, not a torn acl.

I sure hope they draft a qb too. Competition.

brees was drafted in round 2 , the chargers traded back with the falcons and picked brees in round 2