Peach Bowl: Michigan vs Florida

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

@MAIZEandBLUE09 doesn't understand that transitive properties don't work in college football.

I don't think you understand the transitive property....at no point did I argue that Michigan would beat Florida because they lose to Kentucky.

I simply argued that a win over Florida will looked at as "meh" by pretty much everyone nationally because Florida isn't a great team. A team that lost to 8-4 Missouri and 9-3 Kentucky. Another loss gives them 4 on the season.

 

[7Samurai13]

They only say that after they lose, particularly to a program that they deem inferior to their own.

"The players didn't care..."
"The players overlooked them..."
"Our players looked at Atlanta as a warm weather vacation, while the opponents looked at the game as their MNC game..."
"It's only an exhibition anyway. Who cares?"
"We'd beat them 9 times out of ten. This was an aberration..."

This is before they start throwing unfavored players and coaches under the bus...

“The players didn’t care/over looked them” are excuses that we always here from SEC schools. “They didn’t want to be there” is also very popular down there.

 

[Voltaire26]

I live my value-investor life in a 'reversion to the mean' mindset. This bet is no different.

Reversion to the Mean
Reversion to the mean, also called regression to the mean, is the statistical phenomenon stating that the greater the deviation of a random variate from its mean, the greater the probability that the next measured variate will deviate less far. In other words, an extreme event is likely to be followed by a less extreme event.

Although this phenomenon appears to violate the definition of independent events, it simply reflects the fact that the probability density function

of any random variable

, by definition, is nonnegative over every interval and integrates to one over the interval

. Thus, as you move away from the mean, the proportion of the distribution that lies closer to the mean than you do increases continuously. Formally,

for

.

That stuff is above my head ... I'm not too smart, but I'm smart enough not to be an American Liberal

 

[JuiceTheGator]

Yeah, but still Kentucky. If Michigan wins the win will be undercut by the perception that Florida wasn't that great.

Wasn't Kentucky near the top 10 before everyone figured out their schemes?

Just shuttup...your derp gives me a headache. You're the only Michigan poster who makes Ohio State seem not too bad.

edit: Samurai is close.

 

[VTgator]

@MAIZEandBLUE09 doesn't understand that transitive properties don't work in college football.

Yup. 2007 is a great example.

Appy State beat Michigan, yet Michigan beat 9-4 teams Penn State, Illinois (who beat 11-1 Ohio State) and Florida. How bad were THOSE teams?

This isn't as bad as a poster we have on Rivals, who touted BYU's MNC by saying they beat strong teams from Pitt, Michigan and others. They were strong based on what they did 2-3 years BEFORE the 1984 season. That is using the transitive property in a manner I never before saw...

 

[Voltaire26]

They only say that after they lose, particularly to a program that they deem inferior to their own.

"The players didn't care..."
"The players overlooked them..."
"Our players looked at Atlanta as a warm weather vacation, while the opponents looked at the game as their MNC game..."
"It's only an exhibition anyway. Who cares?"
"We'd beat them 9 times out of ten. This was an aberration..."

This is before they start throwing unfavored players and coaches under the bus...

That's usually clueless fans talking ... the players and coaches know the hard work and preparation that goes into the game. When Alabama played The Citadel, I'm sure BOTH teams were ready.

 

[7Samurai13]

Wasn't Kentucky near the top 10 before everyone figured out their schemes?

Just shuttup...your derp gives me a headache. You're the only Michigan poster who makes Ohio State seem not too bad.

edit: Samurai is close.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

Yup. 2007 is a great example.

Appy State beat Michigan, yet Michigan beat 9-4 teams Penn State, Illinois (who beat 11-1 Ohio State) and Florida. How bad were THOSE teams?

This isn't as bad as a poster we have on Rivals, who touted BYU's MNC by saying they beat strong teams from Pitt, Michigan and others. They were strong based on what they did 2-3 years BEFORE the 1984 season. That is using the transitive property in a manner I never before saw...

Again, I wasn't arguing Michigan was going to beat Florida because you lost to Kentucky. I was arguing that if we do beat Florida, the win is going to be undercut by people saying Florida wasn't that good anyway (see losses to Mizz and UK). If Michigan beats Florida they'll be a 4 loss team.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

Wasn't Kentucky near the top 10 before everyone figured out their schemes?

Just shuttup...your derp gives me a headache. You're the only Michigan poster who makes Ohio State seem not too bad.

edit: Samurai is close.

You lost to Kentucky and Missouri....it wasn't an isolated incident. If Michigan beats Florida, it will be your 4th loss on the season. You can't tell me people will look at that and go, "great win for Michigan".

 

[7Samurai13]

You lost to Kentucky and Missouri....it wasn't an isolated incident. If Michigan beats Florida, it will be your 4th loss on the season. You can't tell me people will look at that and go, "great win for Michigan".

I’m sure @belcherboy will think it’s a “great win to close the season”.

 

[phantomfoul88]

Oh look, Michigan State got a better bowl than Michigan. Ain’t that right, @MAIZEandBLUE09 ?

Atleast you guys get different opponents each year.

Wrong, we were ready against ohio state ... they beat us ... it really is that simple.

I beg to differ. So called #1 defense's don't let 62 pts hung on them.

 

[VTgator]

No, that might not include UCF lol.

But this game against LSU is gonna be MUCH harder than it would've looked 2 weeks ago when Milton was still our QB.

Well you're in luck. If you lose, you can always say "Well, if we had Milton..." IOW, your excuse is already baked into the cake. It would be worthy of an SEC team...

 

[Voltaire26]

Atleast you guys get different opponents each year.



I beg to differ. So called #1 defense's don't let 62 pts hung on them.

Another misconception ... we didn't LET them put up 62 points. Michigan tried to stop them.

 

[Yo Tee]

Well you're in luck. If you lose, you can always say "Well, if we had Milton..." IOW, your excuse is already baked into the cake. It would be worthy of an SEC team...

Well Milton being out doesn't excuse our defense or lack thereof.

 

[VTgator]

Yeah, but still Kentucky. If Michigan wins the win will be undercut by the perception that Florida wasn't that great.

Hey, even a poor program can have a great season once in a while. Remember Mangino's 12-1 season at Godforsaken Kansas? How many 11-win seasons in a row did Bill Snyder have to win before the perceptually stupid finally stopped saying. "How could we POSSIBLY lose to Kansas State, the worst major team in the nation?"

I'm sure the perceptually stupid Oklahoma fans said the same thing when they lost 21-7 to a 9-2-1 Kansas State team in 1993. "How can ANYONE lose to Kansas Fucking STATE?!?"

 

[phantomfoul88]

Another misconception ... we didn't LET them put up 62 points. Michigan tried to stop them.

Well, not very hard then.

 

[Voltaire26]

Well, not very hard then.

Unsuccessful is a better word.

 

[Wamu]

Another misconception ... we didn't LET them put up 62 points. Michigan tried to stop them.

Well they did a really bad job.

 

[Wamu]

Unsuccessful is a better word.

I disagree. I thought Yer Boyz played an excellent game.

 

[SU Nittany Tide]

Yeah, you're making this up. Kentucky is ranked well behind the Gators by the playoff committee, the writers and the coaches. Fluke wins do nothing to change the perception of Florida...and Kentucky. You're still Kentucky. Good season though. You guys should be proud...

How was it a fluke win?