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PAC 12 Thread v6.0
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WizardHawk
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No, it's a raw guess based off of the vegas style indexes. It is possible they are adjusted to something between 9 to 11 points. There could be variance after this weeks game as well. If UW looks flat and struggles on the road at UCLA it will drop their index scores a bit.
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AlaskaGuy
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Pac-12 power ratings: Washington retakes No. 1, Oregon rises
By JON WILNER | [email protected] | Bay Area News Group
PUBLISHED: October 1, 2018 at 7:05 am | UPDATED: October 1, 2018 at 7:06 am
Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott receives plenty of criticism when matters don’t unfold in optimal fashion for the conference, an all-too-frequent occurrence over the past 12 months, both on the fields (and courts) and off.
But rarely in his nine years has Scott been roasted as intensely as he was last week, in the wake of USC linebacker Porter Gustin’s controversial how-in-the-h-e-double-hockey-sticks-is-that-not-targeting hit on Washington State quarterback Gardner Minshew.
If you’re not familiar with the situation, let’s recap:
GUSTIN WAS GUILT OF TARGETING.
Somehow, it wasn’t called.
Scott was asked about.
He said it wasn’t targeting, per the original AP report.
He was summarily roasted by social media and actual media, with no less a talking head than ESPN’s Desmond Howard tweeting to his 350,000 followers: “Do they drug test commissioners?”
Welp, it turns out Scott was torched unfairly.This past Friday, prior to the UCLA-Colorado kickoff, Scott told assembled media at Folsom Field that his comments on the Pac-12’s officiating review process were incorrectly interpreted as confirmation that Gustin’s hit wasn’t targeting.
“Unfortunately,” he said, “my comments were interpreted to be saying that the conference had officially reviewed and I or the conference office had officially determined that it was a correct no call …”
One place Scott wasn’t criticized — and this might come as a surprise to many — was the Hotline.
I was too busy being confused by the situation:
• Baffled by the ruling itself.
The video clearly shows forcible contact: Gustin leads with the crown of his helmet into the facemask of a defenseless player — the very definition of targeting.
(If you’re not going to call that, why call it, ever?)
• Stunned that Scott would speak publicly on a specific call/non-call.
Few topics are more precarious for commissioners, and oh-by-the-way it’s against conference policy to comment on officiating unless a penalty has been assessed.
• Perplexed by the timing of his assessment.
Gustin’s hit was delivered on a Friday night, while the AP report was based on comments Scott made Saturday … but the conference office does not review high-interest plays until Monday.
Scott could not have known on Saturday what had been determined, because that process was still two days away from being determined.
Then, for 72 hours, he was excoriated. A clarification came Friday at Folsom Field:
“What I sought to do was to explain that not only was that call reviewed, every call is reviewed, by replay in the stadium, replay at the command center back in San Francisco,” he explained.
“And just because a play isn’t stopped, and it’s not buzzed down, doesn’t mean that it wasn’t reviewed. And I commented that I checked to make sure that process had actually taken place, and it had.
“Unfortunately my comments were interpreted to be saying that the conference had officially reviewed and I or the conference office had officially determined that it was a correct no call, and that was the final word, and that’s not the case.”
So we’re left with three conclusions:
1) Scott was roasted for a comment he didn’t make.
2) He should probably think twice (or 10 times) before venturing into the treacherous waters of officiating, even if his intent is to explain the process.
3) The conference should consider a way to better inform fans and media about what is and isn’t targeting.
The Hotline suggests a tutorial be posted on Pac-12.com with David Coleman, the vice president of officiating, using videos and still shots from past instances to explain the rule. (I’d sure as heck watch it.)
The more education and transparency, the less chance targeting will dominate the narrative.
To the power ratings …
1. Washington (4-1/2-0)
Last week: 2
Result: Beat Brigham Young 35-7
Next up: at UCLA
Comment: From the maybe-it’s-just-me files: Salvon Ahmed is averaging 7.9 yards per carry in the past two games; seems like one option for the Huskies would be to USE HIM MORE.
2. Oregon (4-1/1-1)
Last week: 3
Result: Won at Cal 42-24
Next up: Bye (then vs. Washington)
Comment: Had the Ducks slotted behind Stanford on my top-25 ballot, which is based largely on quantifiable factors/guidelines set by the AP. These power ratings are far more subjective. Right now, Oregon’s better.
3. Stanford (4-1/2-0)
Last week: 1
Result: Lost at Notre Dame 38-17
Next up: vs. Utah
Comment: Yes, it was a difficult back-to-back, especially given the taxing nature of the game in Eugene. But there’s more to the situation: The Cardinal is underperforming on both lines. (We expected that on defense, not offense.)
4. Colorado (4-0/1-0)
Last week: 5
Result: Beat UCLA 38-16
Next up: vs. Arizona State
Comment: We mentioned the soft schedule in ‘Saturday Night Five,’ but it gets more difficult quickly with ASU this week and then a trip to the Coliseum, where the Trojans will be coming off a bye.
5. USC (3-2/2-1)
Last week: 6
Result: Won at Arizona 24-20
Next up: Bye (then vs. Colorado)
Comment: Eighteen penalties. Eight. Teen. (That should be in the ‘termination with cause’ section of every coach’s contract.)
6. Washington State (4-1/1-1)
Last week: 7
Result: Beat Utah 28-24
Next up: at Oregon State
Comment: Gigantic victory for the Cougars, who are now two wins from bowl-eligibility. Take care of business in Corvallis, and they’ll have enough cushion in October/November to stretch from Pullman to Colfax (while abiding by the speed limit, of course).
7. Arizona State (3-2/1-1)
Last week: 8
Result: Beat Oregon State 52-24
Next up: at Colorado
Comment: The good and bad for ASU … make that the bad and the good: Oregon State’s Jermar Jefferson rushed for 254 yards Saturday but wasn’t close to the most-productive tailback on the field.
8. Cal (3-1/0-1)
Last week: 4
Result: Lost to Oregon 42-24
Next up: at Arizona
Comment: Disappointing performance by the Bears, who had five turnovers and yielded two defensive touchdowns to Oregon. Would have expected that type of inefficiency in late Sept. 2017, not 2018.
9. Arizona (2-3/1-1)
Last week: 9
Result: Lost to USC 24-20
Next up: vs. Cal
Comment: Plus-two in turnovers and plus-10 in penalties and not really in the game for 58 minutes because the narrative remains unchanged: Regardless of coach, quarterback or system, Arizona cannot handle USC on the line of scrimmage.
10. Utah (2-2/0-2)
Last week: 10
Result: Lost at Washington State 28-24
Next up: at Stanford
Comment: Picked by some to win the South and by many to contend in the South, the Utes need a substantial upset to avoid an 0-3 start. On the bright side: Their defense and running game should match up well with Stanford.
11. Oregon State (1-4/0-2)
Last week: 11
Result: Lost at Arizona State 52-24
Next up: vs. Washington State
Comment: We have a major story developing, folks: The emergence of a Pac-12 run defense that’s actually worse than what we saw from UCLA last year. I didn’t think it was possible …
12. UCLA (0-4/0-1)
Last week: 12
Result: Lost at Colorado 38-16
Next up: vs. Washington
Comment: Total yards in the second half: Colorado 281, UCLA 98. Which is worse? The latter: Repeated three-and-outs in the altitude are a recipe for collapse on defense.
By JON WILNER | [email protected] | Bay Area News Group
PUBLISHED: October 1, 2018 at 7:05 am | UPDATED: October 1, 2018 at 7:06 am
Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott receives plenty of criticism when matters don’t unfold in optimal fashion for the conference, an all-too-frequent occurrence over the past 12 months, both on the fields (and courts) and off.
But rarely in his nine years has Scott been roasted as intensely as he was last week, in the wake of USC linebacker Porter Gustin’s controversial how-in-the-h-e-double-hockey-sticks-is-that-not-targeting hit on Washington State quarterback Gardner Minshew.
If you’re not familiar with the situation, let’s recap:
GUSTIN WAS GUILT OF TARGETING.
Somehow, it wasn’t called.
Scott was asked about.
He said it wasn’t targeting, per the original AP report.
He was summarily roasted by social media and actual media, with no less a talking head than ESPN’s Desmond Howard tweeting to his 350,000 followers: “Do they drug test commissioners?”
Welp, it turns out Scott was torched unfairly.This past Friday, prior to the UCLA-Colorado kickoff, Scott told assembled media at Folsom Field that his comments on the Pac-12’s officiating review process were incorrectly interpreted as confirmation that Gustin’s hit wasn’t targeting.
“Unfortunately,” he said, “my comments were interpreted to be saying that the conference had officially reviewed and I or the conference office had officially determined that it was a correct no call …”
One place Scott wasn’t criticized — and this might come as a surprise to many — was the Hotline.
I was too busy being confused by the situation:
• Baffled by the ruling itself.
The video clearly shows forcible contact: Gustin leads with the crown of his helmet into the facemask of a defenseless player — the very definition of targeting.
(If you’re not going to call that, why call it, ever?)
• Stunned that Scott would speak publicly on a specific call/non-call.
Few topics are more precarious for commissioners, and oh-by-the-way it’s against conference policy to comment on officiating unless a penalty has been assessed.
• Perplexed by the timing of his assessment.
Gustin’s hit was delivered on a Friday night, while the AP report was based on comments Scott made Saturday … but the conference office does not review high-interest plays until Monday.
Scott could not have known on Saturday what had been determined, because that process was still two days away from being determined.
Then, for 72 hours, he was excoriated. A clarification came Friday at Folsom Field:
“What I sought to do was to explain that not only was that call reviewed, every call is reviewed, by replay in the stadium, replay at the command center back in San Francisco,” he explained.
“And just because a play isn’t stopped, and it’s not buzzed down, doesn’t mean that it wasn’t reviewed. And I commented that I checked to make sure that process had actually taken place, and it had.
“Unfortunately my comments were interpreted to be saying that the conference had officially reviewed and I or the conference office had officially determined that it was a correct no call, and that was the final word, and that’s not the case.”
So we’re left with three conclusions:
1) Scott was roasted for a comment he didn’t make.
2) He should probably think twice (or 10 times) before venturing into the treacherous waters of officiating, even if his intent is to explain the process.
3) The conference should consider a way to better inform fans and media about what is and isn’t targeting.
The Hotline suggests a tutorial be posted on Pac-12.com with David Coleman, the vice president of officiating, using videos and still shots from past instances to explain the rule. (I’d sure as heck watch it.)
The more education and transparency, the less chance targeting will dominate the narrative.
To the power ratings …
1. Washington (4-1/2-0)
Last week: 2
Result: Beat Brigham Young 35-7
Next up: at UCLA
Comment: From the maybe-it’s-just-me files: Salvon Ahmed is averaging 7.9 yards per carry in the past two games; seems like one option for the Huskies would be to USE HIM MORE.
2. Oregon (4-1/1-1)
Last week: 3
Result: Won at Cal 42-24
Next up: Bye (then vs. Washington)
Comment: Had the Ducks slotted behind Stanford on my top-25 ballot, which is based largely on quantifiable factors/guidelines set by the AP. These power ratings are far more subjective. Right now, Oregon’s better.
3. Stanford (4-1/2-0)
Last week: 1
Result: Lost at Notre Dame 38-17
Next up: vs. Utah
Comment: Yes, it was a difficult back-to-back, especially given the taxing nature of the game in Eugene. But there’s more to the situation: The Cardinal is underperforming on both lines. (We expected that on defense, not offense.)
4. Colorado (4-0/1-0)
Last week: 5
Result: Beat UCLA 38-16
Next up: vs. Arizona State
Comment: We mentioned the soft schedule in ‘Saturday Night Five,’ but it gets more difficult quickly with ASU this week and then a trip to the Coliseum, where the Trojans will be coming off a bye.
5. USC (3-2/2-1)
Last week: 6
Result: Won at Arizona 24-20
Next up: Bye (then vs. Colorado)
Comment: Eighteen penalties. Eight. Teen. (That should be in the ‘termination with cause’ section of every coach’s contract.)
6. Washington State (4-1/1-1)
Last week: 7
Result: Beat Utah 28-24
Next up: at Oregon State
Comment: Gigantic victory for the Cougars, who are now two wins from bowl-eligibility. Take care of business in Corvallis, and they’ll have enough cushion in October/November to stretch from Pullman to Colfax (while abiding by the speed limit, of course).
7. Arizona State (3-2/1-1)
Last week: 8
Result: Beat Oregon State 52-24
Next up: at Colorado
Comment: The good and bad for ASU … make that the bad and the good: Oregon State’s Jermar Jefferson rushed for 254 yards Saturday but wasn’t close to the most-productive tailback on the field.
8. Cal (3-1/0-1)
Last week: 4
Result: Lost to Oregon 42-24
Next up: at Arizona
Comment: Disappointing performance by the Bears, who had five turnovers and yielded two defensive touchdowns to Oregon. Would have expected that type of inefficiency in late Sept. 2017, not 2018.
9. Arizona (2-3/1-1)
Last week: 9
Result: Lost to USC 24-20
Next up: vs. Cal
Comment: Plus-two in turnovers and plus-10 in penalties and not really in the game for 58 minutes because the narrative remains unchanged: Regardless of coach, quarterback or system, Arizona cannot handle USC on the line of scrimmage.
10. Utah (2-2/0-2)
Last week: 10
Result: Lost at Washington State 28-24
Next up: at Stanford
Comment: Picked by some to win the South and by many to contend in the South, the Utes need a substantial upset to avoid an 0-3 start. On the bright side: Their defense and running game should match up well with Stanford.
11. Oregon State (1-4/0-2)
Last week: 11
Result: Lost at Arizona State 52-24
Next up: vs. Washington State
Comment: We have a major story developing, folks: The emergence of a Pac-12 run defense that’s actually worse than what we saw from UCLA last year. I didn’t think it was possible …
12. UCLA (0-4/0-1)
Last week: 12
Result: Lost at Colorado 38-16
Next up: vs. Washington
Comment: Total yards in the second half: Colorado 281, UCLA 98. Which is worse? The latter: Repeated three-and-outs in the altitude are a recipe for collapse on defense.
mrwallace2ku
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Duckboy33
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No way there’s a double digit spread in Autzen
WizardHawk
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I'm just posting what the indexes are around right now. Not sure why anyone would care. Those lines don't mean anything really in a rivalry game.
Duckboy33
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I don't really care since I don't gamble but I'll be shocked if UW opens up as double digit favorites.
WizardHawk
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fwiw, I don't agree with the valuation of the ducks in the matrices. They've played better than their results have indicated.
No idea if there will be any influence for the ducks coming off a bye while UW will be on back to back road games.
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Bookmarked.
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It's going to be amusing the game is in broad daylight for those fans in the stands.
According to Duck fans, our defense is overated and no match for Herbert. He's gonna torch us all game long.
This is going to be fun.
AlaskaGuy
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Losing Bowman hurts but as long as UW stays healthy barring no injuries in the UCLA game, I think the secondary should be able to do a better job vs Hebert than Stanford and Cal. What does have me a bit worried is that tall ass WR on the Ducks. I saw a few highlights of him vs Cal and Herbert likes to throw it high to the guy knowing he has a better than 50% chance of beating out the DB. What Cal didn't do is hit UO's WR's when they were coming off the line in order to take them out of their rhythm.
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UW should be. Oregon isn't on the same level as Washington right now.
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I agree with that statement - however for the past two years Husky fans and Trojan fans have said Oregon will go back to the cellar of the PAC where they belong etc... Obviously that is not the case, with the recruiting classes coming in and looks like stability in the coaching ranks - Oregon is clearly in the top half of the conference and currently power ranked #2. Please reply with apologies
WizardHawk
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You do get how rivalry banter works no?I agree with that statement - however for the past two years Husky fans and Trojan fans have said Oregon will go back to the cellar of the PAC where they belong etc... Obviously that is not the case, with the recruiting classes coming in and looks like stability in the coaching ranks - Oregon is clearly in the top half of the conference and currently power ranked #2. Please reply with apologies
Besides Auburn which for many obvious reasons was going to be the biggest task of the year coming into the season, Utah and Oregon were the next most dangerous games IMO. Utah because their defense has given UW fits and it was so early in the season before Petersen's offenses have taken off. And Oregon because it's a major rivalry with the ducks players still likely remembering the last two years and wanting desperately to go back to prior years, and because the ducks are coming off a bye and the huskies will be coming off another road game.
It will be a huge challenge no matter how people view the overall health (or lack there of) of the ducks program. Huskies are usually good for at least one flat road game somewhere.
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I accept your apology
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